Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 10:38 AM   Moonset 1:23 AM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 133 Pm Pdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure through mid-week. Gusty winds from the north through Wednesday morning. A cold front moves inland on Thursday from the northeast pacific.

FXUS66 KPQR 141843 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Portland OR 1142 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure ridging returns today, maintaining warm, dry, and mostly clear conditions through at least Thursday. Uncertainty remains with whether or not this trend continues over the weekend.

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday...Satellite imagery is showing scattered marine stratus along the Oregon coast, into southwest Washington, and along the Columbia river. Marine stratus will remain scattered into the morning but it is uncertain how widespread it will become. A ridge across the northeast Pacific will continue to build into the region along with surface high pressure west of the PNW coast. This will keep northwest flow aloft and northerly/northwesterly flow in place at the surface through Tuesday. Highs will be a few degrees warming today as the ridge strengthens and takes a stronger hold on the region. Highs top are expected to top out in the mid 70s across the Willamette Valley. A thermal trough is expected to develop this afternoon but models keep it confined to southern Oregon through Thursday. Wednesday will be warmer with highs peaking in the upper 70s and a 20-40% chance some locations hit 80 around the Portland metro.

Going into Thursday, a series of disturbances across the Gulf of Alaska round the top of the northeast Pacific ridge, elongating/suppressing it farther south along the West Coast.
500 mb flow will become more zonal. Highs will fall back into the mid 70s with a 40-70% chance of reaching 75 across the Willamette Valley. Expect partly cloudy skies with some passing high clouds during the day. -Batz

LONG TERM
Thursday Night through Monday...WPC clusters show good (80-90%) agreement that the ridge will be under some degree of suppression or slight troughing by Friday. Only 20% of members show weak troughing returning on Friday from Canada, but even then precipitation looks minimal. On the flip side, only about 10% of members show the ridge building further. In this case, we would likely see a return of cooler temperatures if the ridge breaks down by the end of the week.

Uncertainty in the upper level pattern over the Pacific Northwest continues into the weekend, however, one thing the clusters all have in common is a high pressure ridge over the northeast Pacific Ocean. Most of the uncertainty relates to how much of an influence this ridge has on our area. Clusters suggest an ~70% chance of zonal flow or troughing and an ~30% chance of ridging going into the weekend. Thus, NBM does show around a 8 to 10 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles of high temperatures over parts of the Willamette Valley for Friday and Saturday. The spread on Sunday and Monday is a bit bigger at 10-12 degrees, owing to a bit more uncertainty later in the forecast period.

If models trend toward a troughing/zonal flow pattern, we'll likely see temperatures cool and potentially a slight chance (15-24%) of PoPs. If models trend toward keeping the ridge, then expect the forecast to maintain warmer, drier, and clearer conditions. -Alviz/Batz

AVIATION
High pressure dominates, and generally VFR conditions with clear skies are in place for most of Tuesday. Around 0500 Wed, some lower level stratus clouds move inland, bringing 80-90% chance of MVFR cigs at coastal terminals. Slightly more cloud cover is expected at northern areas (such as KAST); around a 60% chance of IFR cigs can be expected during this time. Stratus clouds burn off going into Wednesday morning, with 90% confidence in return to VFR conditions by 20z Wed.

Winds will be northerly throughout the period, with somewhat breezy/gusty winds at times throughout the rest of Tuesday afternoon and evening. Coastal terminals could see gusts up to 25-30 kt up until around 08z Wed, after which winds will begin to weaken. At all inland terminals, winds should peak around 20-25 kt during this period. No LLWS expected. /JLiu

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with relatively clear skies throughout most of the TAF period, other than some light high cloud cover.
Winds will become a bit gustier going into the evening, with gusts up to 20kt possible beginning 22z Tue. These calm again going into Wednesday morning, dropping to 5-10 kt around 07z Wed. /JLiu

MARINE
Typical summertime pattern of northerly winds as high pressure builds through mid week. Winds are already increasing with gusts currently around 25 kt. Recent models are bringing gusts as high as 30 kt with isolated gusts to 35 kt this afternoon with the peak wind speeds in PZZ253 and 273. Small Craft Advisory remains on track.

In regards to seas, nothing overly remarkable as the primary swell is from the northwest, and the wind wave from the north. Wind waves will range from around 4 to 6 feet. Combined seas will be 6 to 8 ft through Tuesday, though conditions ramp up mid-week. -Muessle/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.

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Brighton
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Tue -- 02:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:11 AM PDT     6.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:37 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:36 PM PDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM PDT     5.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

Barview
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Tue -- 02:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM PDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:38 PM PDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM PDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

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