Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:10PM Thursday February 20, 2020 11:56 AM EST (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:11AMMoonset 3:09PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1032 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night...
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202002202345;;830483 FZUS53 KAPX 201532 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1032 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-202345-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 201528 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1028 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1023 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Same old story this morning with light lake effect snow showers and flurries rotating off the big waters. Combination of steadily backing winds, lowering convective depths (already really shallow), and coldest temperature anomalies exiting to our east should begin to take their collective toll on lake process heading through this afternoon. Of course, simple inertia will compensate some, but do believe we will see a continued downward trend in areal coverage and organization of lake snows this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine away from those lake effect regions, and that should continue to be the trend for the remainder of the day. Still plenty cold out there, with expected highs in the teens and lower 20s running several degrees below what is considered normal for this time of year.

NEAR TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

. Lake effect winding down today .

High Impact Weather Potential: Lingering lake snows with some light accumulations.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early overnight composite analysis reveals broad troughing through the eastern CONUS downstream from a ridging building out west. Last in a series of short-wave troughs is swinging down through the northern lakes. At the surface, large expanse of high pressure is building through the Midwest and Great Lakes, although pronounced lake aggregate troughing stretches from SE Lake Ontario into northern Lake Huron keeping our flow a bit more backed than it otherwise would be. Light lake effect snow remains across a chunk of northern Lower Michigan on WNW winds, most prevalent across the typical "big 5" lake effect counties. Minor accumulations around the Gaylord area, but snow character has been effective at reducing VSBYs.

Per CASMR radar, lake effect remains more vigorous off Superior into Chippewa county, owing to the longer fetch/colder temps and increased inversion heights, and a nice low level convergence signal pointing into that region.

Short-wave trough crosses the region this morning with surface high pressure finally filling in across the western Great Lakes in earnest . weakening the lake aggregate trough. We may already seeing signs of that occurring as low level flow and lake effect banding is veering more northwesterly. Further antecedent drying/lowering inversions/backing flow and retreating cold air through the afternoon should finally greatly diminish (end?) lake effect.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Remaining lake snow showers/accumulations and going headlines across eastern Upper.

Details: Light lake effect snow will likely continue across parts of eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan this morning and into the afternoon before finally ending, followed by decreasing cloud cover through the afternoon. Any additional accumulations today should be light . half inch or less where snow showers are most persistent. We should be able to allow current advisory to expire at 4 am as scheduled. But will see how vigorous the remaining lake effect is across Chippewa county toward 4 am and make the call then.

Tonight: Quiet weather anticipated for a change as upper level ridging builds across the western Great Lakes and surface ridge axis slides down into the lower lakes region. Model RH plots do show a area of warm advection forced mid-high cloud cover grazing across the northern lakes. But generally clear to partly cloudy skies anticipated. Chilly temps, but moderated some by increasing SW flow across the region.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

High impact weather potential: Lakeshore flooding possible along the Lake Michigan shorelines Friday through Friday night.

A rather zonal flow with a large area of high pressure and associated dry air will be over much of the eastern half of the CONUS and will dominate northern Michigan's weather through Sunday with precipitation-free weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. A low pressure system near Hudson Bay will create a tighter pressure gradient over the forecast area . creating some gusty southwesterly winds throughout the forecast period, with Friday and Friday night with the highest gusts of up to 25-35 mph. The highest gusts will be along the Lake Michigan shoreline, where some gusts of up to 45 mph could be realized. There will most likely be some lakeshore flooding headlines associated with these strong southwesterly winds on the Lake Michigan shorelines. Temperatures Friday will be in the low to mid 30s on southwest winds and moderating a bit each day, with temperatures reaching into the low 40s by Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the 20s.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

High impact weather potential: Some accumulating snow Monday through Tuesday?

Flow becomes more progressive with long range models hinting at a possible storm system Monday through Tuesday that develops on the lee side of the Rockies and transits through the southern Great Lakes region. Obviously the track of this storm will determine intensity and precipitation-type and will be monitored for any changes. Behind this system will most likely be northerly to northwesterly winds and colder air . possibly producing some nuisance type lake effect clouds and snow. A couple other disturbances will produce other periods of nuisance type clouds and precipitation throughout the rest of the forecast area as the flow remains progressive. Highs will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, while lows will generally be in the 20s.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 634 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Lake effect clouds and light snow showers continue to impact parts of northern Lower Michigan this morning, primarily the TVC terminal site where temporary MVFR conditions may be found this morning. Snow showers will diminish through the morning and cloud cover thins out in earnest this afternoon with solid VFR conditions anticipated.

VFR weather tonight. But winds turn into the southwest and increase through the the night. A touch of wind shear is possible although only explicitly included in the APN forecast at this point.

MARINE. Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Gustier W/NW winds will lingering through the balance of the night, diminishing through today. Winds will back W/SW later tonight and especially Friday, with another period of gale force gusts anticipated on Lake Michigan into the Straits. Plan on hoisting a gale watch from Friday afternoon through Friday night.

Otherwise, some lake snow showers will linger across the region this morning . ending this afternoon with quiet weather and rebounding temperatures expected for the next few days.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . GALE WATCH from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LHZ345. LM . GALE WATCH from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . BA MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi87 min NW 5.1 11°F 4°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi63 min 12°F 33°F1035.8 hPa6°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi63 min 6°F 35°F1035.3 hPa-2°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi63 min 1035.6 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi63 min 5°F 1035.2 hPa-1°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair14°F5°F68%1035.9 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi61 minSSW 510.00 miFair11°F5°F81%1035.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi63 minVar 310.00 miFair14°F6°F71%1037.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCIU

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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W11W9W7W7W8W9W9W8NW7N5CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW12NW19
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W13NW14W10W9W10W9N11N7NW6NW3CalmCalmSW4W7W10W12W11
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2 days agoSE11S18SE18SE19E11
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E13E13E14SE12SE16SE17--SE13SE12E10E10E11E11E12E7NE4N4NW9NW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.