Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 6:54PM Monday October 14, 2019 6:20 AM EDT (10:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:43PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 309 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Chance of waterspouts early in the morning, then slight chance of waterspouts in the morning. Isolated showers early in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201910141515;;682869 FZUS53 KAPX 140709 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 309 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-141515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 140656
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
256 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 253 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Lake effect rain snow showers diminish...

high impact weather potential: may yet see a few waterspouts early
this morning on some of our nearshore waters.

Pattern synopsis forecast: deep mid level trough centered across the
area early this morning. Classic early season lake effect set-up
continues as moisture rich cyclonic flow remains embedded within a
very favorable over-water thermal regime (delta t's still around 20c
with h8 temperatures near -4c). Flow has slowly veered, bringing the
most persistent lake showers into the more traditional lake belts of
northwest lower and northwest chippewa county. Marginally cold
enough thermal profiles continue to support a rain snow mixture
across inland and elevated areas. Haven't received any reports of
accumulation just yet, though it wouldn't be surprising to see some
brief minor accumulations within the heavier shower activity.

Heights begin to rebound today and tonight as core of trough pivots
northeast, reaching western quebec by Tuesday morning. Coldest
temperature anomalies exit along with it, with rapid onset of warm
air advection heading through tonight ahead of next shortwave trough
digging into the northern plains. Above, combined with tanking
inversion heights and thinning moisture profiles, should entice a
steady downward trend in lake processes heading through today into
this evening.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperature trends
and addressing lingering lake shower activity.

Details: still a decent set-up for lake effect rain and snow showers
early on this morning with maintenance of cold thermal profiles and
lake induced equilibrium levels up and over 10kft (highest off lake
superior). Expect scattered to numerous showers early this morning
in favored west flow areas. Lake parameters begin to decrease
heading through the morning, and especially this afternoon, with the
beginning stages of warm air advection and lowering inversion
heights, resulting in less organized and less intense showers. Would
even expect some clearing skies, especially so across northeast
lower michigan, as diurnal trends help mix out some of the low level
moisture. Still chilly today, with expected highs mostly ranging
through the 40s (running at least a few degrees below normal for
this time of year). While not quite as brisk as the last few days,
still gusty winds will add a bit more chill to those temperatures.

Elevated warm air advection ramps up considerably tonight as flow
become southwest between high pressure sliding east out of the ohio
valley and shortwave trough developing surface reflection moving
east across the northern plains. Simple inertia of lake processes
may result in a few lingering light showers early this evening,
especially up near whitefish point where colder profiles and west
flow lingers longest. Conditions should turn dry all areas heading
through the overnight, with lingering lake clouds giving way to some
increasing high level clouds by morning. Lows tonight expected to
range from the lower 30s in our traditional colder interior areas,
to near 40 degrees along the lake michigan coast.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 253 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Thunder Tuesday Tuesday night...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening, although severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The sfc low moves into wisconsin by
Tuesday afternoon and this begins to push the rain into the NW lower
during the morning hours. Have backed off pops a bit after 12z and
then ramp up by the late morning as the model soundings moisten up.

Models then suggest some elevated convection during Tuesday
afternoon evening as the sfc low moves into the N lower by 00z wed
and the cold front is moving into the region. This may need to be
watched as the 500 mb winds are near 50+ knots before the cold front
moves through and we are in the lfq. However, as the cold front
moves through the winds veer to the NW and the mid levels dry out,
and lake effect rain will begin. 850 mb temperatures start to fall,
but don't look like they will get to any critical levels as far as p-
type as the models continue to be warmer than -5c and closer to 0c
through Wednesday night.

Primary forecast concerns... The winds on Tuesday Tuesday night will
be an issue with the convective showers thunderstorms. The rain
showers ahead of the front, in the modest warm sector with the lfq
and difluent axis over N lower, there is a chance for thunderstorms,
although it would be elevated convection. However, as mentioned the
winds are 50+ knots ahead of the cold front. If the convection can
get going, we could get some kind of convective line going with
little thunder, but winds that could approach severe criteria. One
of those, wind advisory severe rain shower issues, possibly.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 253 am edt Mon oct 14 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)... The 500 mb trough associated
with the Tuesday Wednesday system pushes east quickly, and the
heights rise quickly by Thursday morning, and continues into Friday
evening. Another storm system pushes into the upper great lakes on
late Friday night into Saturday. The models are slightly different
on the timing of the rain leaving, but by Saturday night the rain
should be gone. That is until Sunday, when a southern system, coming
out of the S plains pushes through the lower missouri and mid-
mississippi valleys Sunday morning, brings rain to the upper great
lakes.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1151 pm edt Sun oct 13 2019
conditions generally improving.

Slowly weakening low pressure is well north of superior. Cold air
in the region has contributed lake effect rain snow showers and
associated low clouds. Coverage of lake effect precip and clouds
will diminish with time, as the coldest air moves downstream and
somewhat drier air works in. Lake effect rain snow showers will
linger longest at pln, into Monday morning. A mix of MVFR toVFR
cigs will become allVFR on Monday.

Current SW winds will veer west, and will remain gusty at times.

Marine
Issued at 253 am edt Mon oct 14 2019
still some west flow gustiness lingering today with
maintenance of unstable over-water conditions, resulting in the
continuation of small craft advisories for many of our nearshore
waters. Well deserved break in the winds tonight into at least
Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, the break doesn't appear to last
long as the next approaching low pressure brings increasing south
winds Tuesday, with winds swinging around to northwest and further
increasing in speed later Tuesday night and especially Wednesday
into Wednesday evening as the low passes. Small craft advisories
are likely once again Tuesday through Wednesday evening, with the
threat for even a few gale gusts at times Wednesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
lhz345>348.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lhz349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz323-
341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lsz321.

Near term... mb
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi51 min W 19 43°F 51°F33°F
45175 21 mi32 min NNW 18 G 21 45°F 57°F2 ft1010 hPa38°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi51 min W 6 G 11 36°F 56°F1007.6 hPa35°F
WSLM4 40 mi81 min W 18 41°F 53°F1008.5 hPa (+1.7)33°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi51 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 53°F1008.1 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi51 min W 8.9 G 14 35°F 56°F1007.6 hPa33°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi44 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F33°F93%1008.8 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi46 minWNW 8 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F39°F95%1008.8 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi27 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds30°F28°F96%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCIU

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW3W66SE6S4S4SE4S3CalmSW5SW6S6S3S3SW5S4SW5W5SW4SW5W6W9W6
1 day agoCalmE3SE7S9S9
G15
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2 days agoSE15SE16SE18
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W6W7W7W9NW5N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.