Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheboygan, MI
March 28, 2024 8:06 PM EDT (00:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:21 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 10:58 PM Moonset 7:34 AM |
LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 353 Pm Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered flurries after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ300
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 282300 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Nuisance light snow showers/flurries in spots tonight
- Light wintry mix likely Saturday
- Next system to watch is early next week
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Pattern/Synopsis: Low pressure over southern Hudson Bay will weaken, while high pressure noses into the southern lakes from the nw.
Forecast: The pressure gradient relaxes tonight, even as winds veer to the wnw. Those wnw winds will bring light snow showers and flurries to the Sault and other parts of Chippewa Co, as well as GLR/Kalkaska and nearby snowbelt areas of nw lower MI.
Somewhat better banding is already present on Superior, well ne of MQT, per MQT radar. The best banding tonight will impact parts of Chip Co, where the wnw fetch is much longer than off of Lake MI. Inversion heights also wobble higher up there for a time, close to 800mb. Have accums of up to 1" in Chippewa Co, near and north of M-28, including the Sault. The shorter fetch, drier air, and lower inversions into nw lower MI will only support light snow showers and flurries, with minimal accums.
Overall on the cloudy side central and north, partly cloudy in the south. Min temps in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Ridging and height rises move over northern Michigan on Friday leading to warmer temperatures and waning precip chances. Low pressure system tracks across southern Michigan Saturday, with a short wave quickly skirting across northern parts of Michigan as well. Light wintry mix possible as a result. Zonal flow takes over on Sunday as the short wave ejects to the east of the Great Lakes.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
High pressure aloft moves overhead on Friday resulting in warmer temperatures. There could be a few nuisance light snow showers across the eastern UP early on Friday, but the ridging aloft, warmer 850 temps, and dry low levels by the afternoon hours will diminish any light lake effect potential. Two pieces of energy, one across southern MI, one across northern, move east throughout the day on Saturday. Consequently, precipitation develops across the region.
This will generally be light precipitation, with largely a mix of rain and snow. Could be some freezing rain during the predawn hours to very early morning hours Saturday if the precipitation overspreads the region when the sfc temps are below freezing. Much of the 12Z guidance shows very little in regard to freezing rain, but something to keep an eye on. Interestingly, ECM/EPS continues to be an outlier with this system, suggesting the northern piece of energy is farther south and thus colder with a couple of inches of snow for the area. GFS/GEFS/CMC/GEPS are farther north and thus not much in the way of snow/wintry precip. Seems the ECM is the outlier, so for now will side with the warmer scenario.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Next system for early next week will be a thread the needle type situation. Two pieces of energy to watch, energy splitting/oozing out of an upper low in the Desert Southwest and ejecting northeastward into the Ohio Valley, in addition to a vigorous upper low diving south out of Canada. Looks like the initial piece of energy produces a juiced up low pressure system that tracks northeastward, with the diving upper low attempting to phase with the southern piece and thus slowing and intensifying the low pressure system. Tons of spread in the ensembles right now, GEFS is most amplified and farthest west comparatively so (pretty sure a bias of the GFS), other guidance generally misses the connection and thus the low pressure drifts off to the east. Although, even if the sfc low does not directly impact N Michigan, that stout upper low would still likely produce precip chances. Nevertheless, right now, generally pretty low probabilities (10-40%) to see 3" or more with this system given the GEPS, EPS, and GEFS (highest is GEFS), but the exact interaction of the upper level features and subsequent low pressure track will ultimately decide. Stay tuned.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Deep low pressure centered over Hudson Bay will push eastward into Quebec tonight...dragging the associated deep trough axis eastward out of the Great Lakes region. Light westerly flow lake effect snow showers will continue to stream into Eastern Upper and portions of Northern Lower Michigan tonight. Narrow upstream ridge axis will build into the Western Great Lakes on Friday and Friday evening...bringing an end to residual snow showers and temporarily clearing skies as subsidence and drier low level air arrive. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours despite light snow showers and low clouds.
Surface winds will remain generally from the west AOB 10 kts.
MARINE
Winds will be decreasing late today, as low pressure over southern Hudson Bay continues to weaken. Small craft advisories will not be needed in most areas by midnight. Whitefish Bay is an exception, as veering winds to wnw will allow wave action from the open portion of Superior to make it into northern parts of Whitefish Bay.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345- 346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Nuisance light snow showers/flurries in spots tonight
- Light wintry mix likely Saturday
- Next system to watch is early next week
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Pattern/Synopsis: Low pressure over southern Hudson Bay will weaken, while high pressure noses into the southern lakes from the nw.
Forecast: The pressure gradient relaxes tonight, even as winds veer to the wnw. Those wnw winds will bring light snow showers and flurries to the Sault and other parts of Chippewa Co, as well as GLR/Kalkaska and nearby snowbelt areas of nw lower MI.
Somewhat better banding is already present on Superior, well ne of MQT, per MQT radar. The best banding tonight will impact parts of Chip Co, where the wnw fetch is much longer than off of Lake MI. Inversion heights also wobble higher up there for a time, close to 800mb. Have accums of up to 1" in Chippewa Co, near and north of M-28, including the Sault. The shorter fetch, drier air, and lower inversions into nw lower MI will only support light snow showers and flurries, with minimal accums.
Overall on the cloudy side central and north, partly cloudy in the south. Min temps in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Ridging and height rises move over northern Michigan on Friday leading to warmer temperatures and waning precip chances. Low pressure system tracks across southern Michigan Saturday, with a short wave quickly skirting across northern parts of Michigan as well. Light wintry mix possible as a result. Zonal flow takes over on Sunday as the short wave ejects to the east of the Great Lakes.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
High pressure aloft moves overhead on Friday resulting in warmer temperatures. There could be a few nuisance light snow showers across the eastern UP early on Friday, but the ridging aloft, warmer 850 temps, and dry low levels by the afternoon hours will diminish any light lake effect potential. Two pieces of energy, one across southern MI, one across northern, move east throughout the day on Saturday. Consequently, precipitation develops across the region.
This will generally be light precipitation, with largely a mix of rain and snow. Could be some freezing rain during the predawn hours to very early morning hours Saturday if the precipitation overspreads the region when the sfc temps are below freezing. Much of the 12Z guidance shows very little in regard to freezing rain, but something to keep an eye on. Interestingly, ECM/EPS continues to be an outlier with this system, suggesting the northern piece of energy is farther south and thus colder with a couple of inches of snow for the area. GFS/GEFS/CMC/GEPS are farther north and thus not much in the way of snow/wintry precip. Seems the ECM is the outlier, so for now will side with the warmer scenario.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Next system for early next week will be a thread the needle type situation. Two pieces of energy to watch, energy splitting/oozing out of an upper low in the Desert Southwest and ejecting northeastward into the Ohio Valley, in addition to a vigorous upper low diving south out of Canada. Looks like the initial piece of energy produces a juiced up low pressure system that tracks northeastward, with the diving upper low attempting to phase with the southern piece and thus slowing and intensifying the low pressure system. Tons of spread in the ensembles right now, GEFS is most amplified and farthest west comparatively so (pretty sure a bias of the GFS), other guidance generally misses the connection and thus the low pressure drifts off to the east. Although, even if the sfc low does not directly impact N Michigan, that stout upper low would still likely produce precip chances. Nevertheless, right now, generally pretty low probabilities (10-40%) to see 3" or more with this system given the GEPS, EPS, and GEFS (highest is GEFS), but the exact interaction of the upper level features and subsequent low pressure track will ultimately decide. Stay tuned.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Deep low pressure centered over Hudson Bay will push eastward into Quebec tonight...dragging the associated deep trough axis eastward out of the Great Lakes region. Light westerly flow lake effect snow showers will continue to stream into Eastern Upper and portions of Northern Lower Michigan tonight. Narrow upstream ridge axis will build into the Western Great Lakes on Friday and Friday evening...bringing an end to residual snow showers and temporarily clearing skies as subsidence and drier low level air arrive. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours despite light snow showers and low clouds.
Surface winds will remain generally from the west AOB 10 kts.
MARINE
Winds will be decreasing late today, as low pressure over southern Hudson Bay continues to weaken. Small craft advisories will not be needed in most areas by midnight. Whitefish Bay is an exception, as veering winds to wnw will allow wave action from the open portion of Superior to make it into northern parts of Whitefish Bay.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345- 346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
SRLM4 | 16 mi | 126 min | W 15 | 30°F | 20°F | |||
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI | 17 mi | 66 min | W 7G | 32°F | 34°F | 29.95 | 20°F | |
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI | 35 mi | 66 min | W 8.9G | 31°F | 36°F | 29.93 | 19°F | |
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI | 42 mi | 66 min | W 7G | 29.92 | ||||
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI | 43 mi | 66 min | W 6G | 31°F | 29.93 | 16°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSLH CHEBOYGAN COUNTY,MI | 6 sm | 11 min | W 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 29.97 | |
KMCD MACKINAC ISLAND,MI | 17 sm | 11 min | W 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 29.97 | |
KPLN PELLSTON RGNL AIRPORT OF EMMET COUNTY,MI | 22 sm | 12 min | W 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 18°F | 55% | 29.98 |
Gaylord, MI,
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