Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 8:35PM Friday August 23, 2019 2:27 AM EDT (06:27 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 1:47PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 919 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Overnight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201908230930;;059910 FZUS53 KAPX 230119 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 919 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-230930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 230546
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
146 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Update
Issued at 919 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
large area of cool canadian high pressure continues to build
southward into the upper mississippi valley and the great lakes
region late this evening. Upper level trough axis remains
upstream... But will be swinging thru northern michigan overnight
into early Friday. This feature combined with cold air aloft may
kick off a few northerly flow lake effect rain showers overnight
into Friday morning. But overall... Our CWA will remain precip-free
overnight and rather cool for this time of year. Overnight low
temps will cool into the 40s for much of our cwa... And even into
the upper 30s for some inland higher terrain areas of northern
lower michigan.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Excellent sleeping weather tonight...

high impact weather... None expected.

Primary forecast concerns... Possible pops.

Looking at the mid afternoon surface weather map, high pressure
remains centered over northwest ontario with ridging extending
all the way into northern michigan. Visible satellite look shows
a scattered to broken cumulus field across the region (mainly
inland). Apx radar was void of returns.

High pressure and associated dry air continue to keep clouds from
building into showers so far this afternoon. However, a short
wave evident on water vapor imagery may be enough to tip the
scales and combine with the cold air aloft to produce a few lake
effect rain showers overnight across portions of northwest and
northeast lower. Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies and light
winds will allow for chilly temperatures once again with a range
between the mid 30s and mid 40s.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Quiet and pleasant late-summer weekend...

high impact weather potential: none.

Upper low initially over eastern canada will open up and eject.

500mb ridge axis will build eastward in its wake, and will be
overhead Sat night. A lingering cool airmass could contribute to a
few lake effect showers Friday, especially early. Otherwise, ridging
surface and aloft will provide for quiet and eventually warmer wx.

850mb temps will dip down to around 4c in northern reaches by fri
morning. So the question is whether we can scavenge some lake effect
showers. Fetch is N to nne, circa 10kt, allowing decoupling over
land tonight. Resulting land breeze development will result in mid-
lake convergence early Friday, especially on lake mi (skinny enough
to allow for land breeze collisions). Lake-induced CAPE values will
reach nearly 200j kg on warmer lake mi, closer to 100j kg on
northern lake huron. Pops already exist in portions of NW and ne
lower mi Friday morning. Given all of the above, will be boosting
expanding pops somewhat in NW lower mi, while reducing somewhat in
ne lower. Fetch is unfavorable for eastern upper mi. Land breeze
circulations helping to force these showers will fall apart as the
morning proceeds, and will have no precip in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure will be almost dead overhead Friday night, and
will gradually move east thru the weekend. Ridging will extend
westward back into northern mi, resulting in meager return flow.

Incoming surface cold front is only slowly advancing across the
dakotas on Sunday. So abundant dry air will result in quiet wx and
relatively clear skies.

Max temps Friday still a bit on the cool side, upper 60s to mid 70s.

Saturday will be in the low mid 70s, and 75 to 80f for Sunday. Min
temps 40s Friday night, mid 40s to mid 50s Sat night.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
upper ridge axis will get shunted eastward early next week as energy
advances across the northern states. Some phasing is possible with
ejecting southern stream waves from the mid ms valley. This
eventually carves out an upper low, which gradually wobbles across
manitoba and far northern ontario next week. Precip chances will
increase W to e, mainly on Monday night, gradually exiting with cold
fropa Tuesday. Unfavorable diurnal timing supports removing thunder,
at least for now. Monday will be another relatively warm day ahead
of the front, but the rest of the week will be cooler with the upper
low hovering to our north. For the same reason, sporadic small pops
are in order for the rest of next week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 144 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
a large area of high pressure and relatively dry air will dominate
the great lakes over this TAF period, with fairly light and cool
northerly winds. Could be a few light lake effect rain showers
that may pop up through daybreak in parts of northwest and
northeast lower michigan, otherwise scattered afternoon cumulus
and precip-freeVFR weather for the remainder of the forecast. Am
expecting mostly clear clear skies tonight.

Marine
Issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
north northwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots will continue
through this afternoon but winds and waves should remain below
small craft criteria. Lighter winds overnight into Friday morning
before some gusts to around 15 knots Friday afternoon. However,
still no marine headlines are anticipated.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... As
short term... Jz
long term... Jz
aviation... Smd
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi57 min N 13 58°F 63°F53°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi57 min W 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 68°F1021 hPa
45175 21 mi28 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 65°F1 ft1021 hPa53°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi57 min N 11 G 13 61°F 64°F1019.2 hPa56°F
45022 40 mi27 min NNE 3.9 G 7.8 60°F 69°F2 ft1021.7 hPa (+1.4)53°F
WSLM4 40 mi87 min N 9.9 57°F 63°F1020.8 hPa (+1.1)50°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi57 min WNW 4.1 G 6 67°F1020.5 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi57 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 58°F 63°F1019.9 hPa54°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi92 minNW 410.00 miFair54°F50°F89%1020 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi92 minNNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F52°F99%1020.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi93 minWNW 410.00 miFair46°F44°F93%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCIU

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W5NW7W6N4N3N6NW10NW8
G15
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N12N14N15N11NW10NW10N9NW5W4CalmCalm
1 day agoW7NW6NW6N3W3NW6W4N8NW4NW7NW10NW11NW15
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2 days agoS3S3S5S5S4S5S5W66S7S9
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SW8SW7SW5W8SW4SW3SW4S5SW4SW5W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.