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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 252 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 151849 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 249 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost over inland northern lower tonight

- Warm through early next week with occasional rain chances

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude shortwave ridging sliding across northern Michigan through tonight, sandwiched between eastern CONUS troughing and upstream troughing over the upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure continues to nose into the region from the north. Upstream trough approaches the western Great Lakes by later Thursday, introducing shower chances.

Forecast Details: Tranquil conditions expected across northern Michigan through tonight with just a few high clouds at times.
Likely also still some low concentrations of Canadian wildfire smoke from time to time, although the heaviest concentrations of this remain west of us. Another night with decent radiational cooling leading to large diurnal temperature ranges, with colder locations in the lower to mid 30s with patchy frost. Upstream trough approaches on Thursday with increasing afternoon clouds and a few showers possible in Lake Michigan coastal areas by early evening with increasing PWAT's and mid level isentropic upglide. Widespread highs in the 70s, with 60s near the coasts and over eastern Upper.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pattern/synopsis: A fairly progressive weather pattern through the long term. Possible upper level disturbances moving through the flow will bring occasional rain chances. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

Forecast: Energy emerging out of the Plains will likely bring a line of showers across the region Thursday night with rain chances lingering into Friday. Embedded non-severe thunderstorms are possible as well. The timing/strength of individual waves this weekend is a bit uncertain but at this point am not expecting a whole lot of shower activity. The best chance of any rain appears to be Sunday with Saturday likely to remain rain free (the wetter GFS looks overdone with phasing of northern and southern stream energy unlikely). Even Sunday could be overdone with a weakening/moisture starved northern stream wave moving through. So overall, a comfortably warm weekend with small shower (and perhaps thunderstorm) chances in order. Mainly weak waves possibly moving through the flow early next week present more rain chances but again the timing/extent of which remain uncertain at this time.
Temperatures are expected to be several degrees above normal this weekend into early next week. Perhaps not quite as warm heading into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

High pressure sliding across the Great Lakes into Thursday with VFR conditions expected at all terminals. North/northeast winds gusting 15kts occasionally through early evening before subsiding overnight. Increasing mid/high clouds on Thursday with scattered showers possible toward evening, especially at KMBL and KTVC.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.

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