Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manzanita, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday Night...Radar shows light rain starting to push into the Willamette Valley as of 3 AM Tuesday as an upper level disturbance and associated weak frontal boundary move across the region. Precipitation amounts have been minimal so far overnight, with a few sites in Pacific County reporting 0.10-0.15" but all other locations north of a Portland to Tillamook line only reporting a few hundredths to this point. Forecast precipitation amounts therefore remain on track with previous thinking, with final totals likely to range from a tenth or two of an inch from the Cowlitz Valley down to Portland and only a few hundredths from Salem to Eugene. Light rain will give way to partial clearing and a few breaks of sunshine across the area by early this afternoon as the system pushes east, with a few showers possibly lingering over the Cascades through this evening. Expect afternoon highs running near or slightly above seasonal norms in the mid to upper 60s inland and in the 50s along the coast this afternoon.

Warm and dry weather prevails on Wednesday as another upper level ridge begins to build into the region, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s in the interior lowlands. Temperatures still look to spike on Thursday as the ridge amplifies directly overhead, sending 850 mb temps into the 13-15 C range. This should correspond to highs reaching the 80s across many interior valley locations, which is supported by NBM probs now giving the Portland Metro a greater than 95% chance to reach 80 degrees and other valley locations a 80-90% of doing so. The Portland area also has around a 75% chance to reach 85 degrees but notably only about a 3% chance to reach 90 degrees, placing an upper bound on how high temperatures may go on Thursday afternoon. Taking a look at NWS HeatRisk guidance, all locations remain in the minor category, likely owing to the short duration (only one day) of well above normal temperatures and overnight lows still dropping into the 50s. Meanwhile, marine influences still look to keep coastal locations much more mild with temperatures topping out in the 60s in those communities on Thursday. /CB

LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...WPC ensemble clusters continue to indicate a return of upper level troughing Friday into the weekend as the ridge shifts east of the region, ushering in another period of potentially wetter weather as temperatures return closer to seasonal norms in the 60s.
If you are looking for rainfall amounts that will significantly move the needle coming out of this very dry April, models unfortunately do not provide much optimism as probabilistic guidance gives most areas only a 20-30% chance to receive a wetting rain of a quarter inch both Friday and Saturday. From a pattern recognition standpoint, will at least have to keep an eye on the potential for a few thunderstorms near the Crest as upper level flow turns more southerly late Friday into Saturday, but models are not particularly bullish on this scenario at this time. Ensembles increasingly favor a return of upper level ridging late Sunday into the beginning of next week, with temperatures trending back upward and precipitation chances trending downward as a result. /CB

AVIATION
At 0945z Tuesday, radar and surface weather observations showed light stratiform rain associated with a weak cool front beginning to spread eastward over southwest WA and northwest OR. Surface visibilities are generally at or above 6 SM where rain is falling, except at KAST where visibilities have fallen to 2-3 SM. Expect visibilities to drop to a similar range at KONP by 12-14z Tuesday. Cigs are already deteriorating to IFR at the coast and should fall into MVFR thresholds for inland TAF sites by 12-15z. In addition, cannot rule out periods of LIFR cigs at the coast Tuesday morning (35-45% chance for both KAST and KONP).

Conditions will trend back to VFR between 21-24z Tuesday in the wake of the aforementioned front as cloud cover scatters out.
Conditions will also be dry by that point aside from a few stray light rain showers. -TK

PDX AND APPROACHES...Periods of light stratiform rain will continue through 15-16z Tuesday with a few stray light rain showers around the Portland metro thereafter. Chances for MVFR cigs below 3000 ft have increased to 70-90% between 13-18z Tuesday. Conditions will otherwise improve back to VFR by 21-24Z Tuesday as cloud cover scatters out. Light and variable winds should eventually become northwest by 22Z Tuesday, sustained around 5 kt. -TK

MARINE
A weak cool front will move over the coastal waters early to mid Tuesday morning. Winds will veer to the northwest behind the front, albeit winds will remain weak at 5-15 kt. Periods of light rain will also accompany the frontal passage.

High pressure returns late Tuesday morning in the wake of the front and then remains in place through Friday, resulting in benign conditions with seas under 10 ft and winds generally under 20 kt. That said, northerly winds may briefly gust as high as 21-23 kt for a few hours late Wednesday afternoon and evening over the southern waters. -TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210.