Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manzanita, OR
December 7, 2023 9:26 PM PST (05:26 UTC)
Sunrise 7:36AM Sunset 4:30PM Moonrise 1:56AM Moonset 1:44PM
PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening...
Rest of today..SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening...
Rest of today..SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 840 Pm Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will build over the region Friday. An area of low pressure will send a front towards the waters over the weekend bringing chances for gales. High pressure will build back across the waters early next week.
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will build over the region Friday. An area of low pressure will send a front towards the waters over the weekend bringing chances for gales. High pressure will build back across the waters early next week.
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 080456 AAA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 855 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023
Updated Aviation discussion
SYNOPSIS
Showers continue through tonight, with a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms for locations west of the Cascades. Snow continues in the Cascades through Friday morning. Drier weather expected Friday, before another moderate atmospheric river brings additional rainfall and elevated concerns for flooding this weekend. Early next week, the potential for drier weather returns.
SHORT TERM
Today through Friday night...Current radar imagery and observations as of 2 PM PST show light to moderate shower activity across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as a shortwave trough moves through the region. Most of these are rain showers except above 3000 ft in the Cascades where there are snow showers.
The current Winter Weather Advisory is on track, as there has been up to 3-5 inches of snowfall in the Cascades since this morning and ODOT webcams show snow-covered roads along the Santiam and Willamette Passes. Expect an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow between 3000-4000 ft, and 6 to 12 inches above 4000 ft from now until Friday morning.
Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Take extra precaution if traveling in the Cascades.
Based on high-resolution models, light to moderate showers will continue across the area this evening and gradually diminish tonight.
Note, since there is colder air moving in aloft, this is creating a more unstable atmosphere with observed CAPE values around 250 J/kg in the Willamette Valley and 500 J/kg along the coast. The current forecast reflects a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms for locations west of the Cascades through early Friday morning.
In terms of hydrology, most river levels have subsided below action stage. The only exception is the Luckiamute River, where a Flood Warning remains in effect through this evening. The current forecast has this river falling below minor flood stage late this afternoon and falling below action stage early Friday morning.
Expect drier weather Friday across the region as a transient upper level ridge moves through. Friday night into early Saturday morning, some areas could see brief cloud breaks/clearing. If this occurs, then there is the potential for frost development and lows dropping near freezing across the Willamette Valley and Columbia River Gorge.
Considering that the next atmospheric river will be approaching Saturday morning (see long term section for more details on this), there is a 10-15% chance that precipitation and freezing air results in a brief moment of a rain/snow mix in the Valley or Gorge early Saturday morning before temperatures quickly rise. If this happens, little to no accumulation of snow is expected and there would be low impacts. -Alviz
LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...There is high confidence (greater than 80% chance) that a moderate strength atmospheric river will bring another round of steady, heavier rain to far northwest Oregon and southwest Washington Saturday to Sunday. There is a 75% chance for at least 1.5-2.5 inches of rain falling in a 24-hour period along the immediate coast (from Tillamook to Pacific County)
and 2.5-4 inches across the Coast Range (between Tillamook and Pacific County). These rainfall amounts would lead to substantial rises on area rivers, but would likely only result in the Grays River reaching minor flood stage.
However, there is a 20% chance for 2.5-3.5 inches of rain falling in a 24-hour period for the north Oregon coast (Tillamook to Pacific County) and 4-7 inches of rain falling in a 24-hour period in the Willapa Hills and north Oregon Coast Range (primarily Tillamook County northward). Given the saturated soils, rainfall totals of this magnitude bring a much higher threat of flooding.
The probability of reaching minor flood stage are as follows...
- Willapa River: 10% chance - Naselle River: 20% chance - Grays River: 75% chance, 10% chance for major flood stage - Nehalem River: 15% chance - Wilson River: 25% chance - Siletz River: Less than 10% chance
Given that this atmospheric river will be coming in more directly from the west, it may result in heavier rainfall totals along the lower elevation west facing slopes of the Coast Range. In the past, this has led to greater impacts than anticipated along the Naselle River and smaller creeks that drain off west facing slopes of the Coast Range and Willapa Hills in particular.
In addition, mud/landslides are possible with this next round of rain, considering that soils are already saturated from this past week's rain. We do not put out watches or warnings for landslides, and we do not know exactly where they will occur. The biggest threat will be along the coast, Coast Range, Willapa Hills, Lower Columbia River Valley, Cowlitz River Valley, and the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area.
After Sunday, the majority of WPC clusters are in agreement of upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast, bringing a few drier days from early to mid-next week. -Alviz/Neuman
AVIATION
Northwesterly flow aloft while cool, post-frontal showers continue across the area into Friday morning. Expect predominately VFR, but variable conditions to MVFR possible with passing showers. HRRR continues to show a 30-50% chance for MVFR CIGS through roughly 18Z Friday. During this time the Coast Range and Cascade mountains are likely to be obscured. Weak high pressure builds on Friday allowing further breakup of stratus into the afternoon. Low level offshore flow develops later Friday ahead of an approaching frontal system, further drying out the boundary layer.
PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR expected, with a 30-50% chance of MVFR through 20Z Friday as scattered showers move across the area. Generally southwest winds around 4-5 kt through Friday morning. /DH
MARINE
General seas are continuing to come down with observations as of 2 PM showing 9-11 ft at 13 seconds across the waters. Small Craft Advisory level seas are expected to continue through Friday afternoon. The Advisory may be pulled down earlier if conditions permit.
High pressure will build across the waters Friday bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 8-10 ft remaining. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts likely ahead of the cold front starting around 9-11 AM Saturday and continuing through much of the day. Seas will likely build into the mid to upper teens within the persistent southwesterly flow.
High pressure will build across the waters early next week bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft Sunday afternoon and remain below Advisory threshold through midweek. -BMuhlestein
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Columbia River Bar.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 855 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023
Updated Aviation discussion
SYNOPSIS
Showers continue through tonight, with a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms for locations west of the Cascades. Snow continues in the Cascades through Friday morning. Drier weather expected Friday, before another moderate atmospheric river brings additional rainfall and elevated concerns for flooding this weekend. Early next week, the potential for drier weather returns.
SHORT TERM
Today through Friday night...Current radar imagery and observations as of 2 PM PST show light to moderate shower activity across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as a shortwave trough moves through the region. Most of these are rain showers except above 3000 ft in the Cascades where there are snow showers.
The current Winter Weather Advisory is on track, as there has been up to 3-5 inches of snowfall in the Cascades since this morning and ODOT webcams show snow-covered roads along the Santiam and Willamette Passes. Expect an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow between 3000-4000 ft, and 6 to 12 inches above 4000 ft from now until Friday morning.
Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Take extra precaution if traveling in the Cascades.
Based on high-resolution models, light to moderate showers will continue across the area this evening and gradually diminish tonight.
Note, since there is colder air moving in aloft, this is creating a more unstable atmosphere with observed CAPE values around 250 J/kg in the Willamette Valley and 500 J/kg along the coast. The current forecast reflects a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms for locations west of the Cascades through early Friday morning.
In terms of hydrology, most river levels have subsided below action stage. The only exception is the Luckiamute River, where a Flood Warning remains in effect through this evening. The current forecast has this river falling below minor flood stage late this afternoon and falling below action stage early Friday morning.
Expect drier weather Friday across the region as a transient upper level ridge moves through. Friday night into early Saturday morning, some areas could see brief cloud breaks/clearing. If this occurs, then there is the potential for frost development and lows dropping near freezing across the Willamette Valley and Columbia River Gorge.
Considering that the next atmospheric river will be approaching Saturday morning (see long term section for more details on this), there is a 10-15% chance that precipitation and freezing air results in a brief moment of a rain/snow mix in the Valley or Gorge early Saturday morning before temperatures quickly rise. If this happens, little to no accumulation of snow is expected and there would be low impacts. -Alviz
LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...There is high confidence (greater than 80% chance) that a moderate strength atmospheric river will bring another round of steady, heavier rain to far northwest Oregon and southwest Washington Saturday to Sunday. There is a 75% chance for at least 1.5-2.5 inches of rain falling in a 24-hour period along the immediate coast (from Tillamook to Pacific County)
and 2.5-4 inches across the Coast Range (between Tillamook and Pacific County). These rainfall amounts would lead to substantial rises on area rivers, but would likely only result in the Grays River reaching minor flood stage.
However, there is a 20% chance for 2.5-3.5 inches of rain falling in a 24-hour period for the north Oregon coast (Tillamook to Pacific County) and 4-7 inches of rain falling in a 24-hour period in the Willapa Hills and north Oregon Coast Range (primarily Tillamook County northward). Given the saturated soils, rainfall totals of this magnitude bring a much higher threat of flooding.
The probability of reaching minor flood stage are as follows...
- Willapa River: 10% chance - Naselle River: 20% chance - Grays River: 75% chance, 10% chance for major flood stage - Nehalem River: 15% chance - Wilson River: 25% chance - Siletz River: Less than 10% chance
Given that this atmospheric river will be coming in more directly from the west, it may result in heavier rainfall totals along the lower elevation west facing slopes of the Coast Range. In the past, this has led to greater impacts than anticipated along the Naselle River and smaller creeks that drain off west facing slopes of the Coast Range and Willapa Hills in particular.
In addition, mud/landslides are possible with this next round of rain, considering that soils are already saturated from this past week's rain. We do not put out watches or warnings for landslides, and we do not know exactly where they will occur. The biggest threat will be along the coast, Coast Range, Willapa Hills, Lower Columbia River Valley, Cowlitz River Valley, and the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area.
After Sunday, the majority of WPC clusters are in agreement of upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast, bringing a few drier days from early to mid-next week. -Alviz/Neuman
AVIATION
Northwesterly flow aloft while cool, post-frontal showers continue across the area into Friday morning. Expect predominately VFR, but variable conditions to MVFR possible with passing showers. HRRR continues to show a 30-50% chance for MVFR CIGS through roughly 18Z Friday. During this time the Coast Range and Cascade mountains are likely to be obscured. Weak high pressure builds on Friday allowing further breakup of stratus into the afternoon. Low level offshore flow develops later Friday ahead of an approaching frontal system, further drying out the boundary layer.
PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR expected, with a 30-50% chance of MVFR through 20Z Friday as scattered showers move across the area. Generally southwest winds around 4-5 kt through Friday morning. /DH
MARINE
General seas are continuing to come down with observations as of 2 PM showing 9-11 ft at 13 seconds across the waters. Small Craft Advisory level seas are expected to continue through Friday afternoon. The Advisory may be pulled down earlier if conditions permit.
High pressure will build across the waters Friday bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 8-10 ft remaining. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts likely ahead of the cold front starting around 9-11 AM Saturday and continuing through much of the day. Seas will likely build into the mid to upper teens within the persistent southwesterly flow.
High pressure will build across the waters early next week bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft Sunday afternoon and remain below Advisory threshold through midweek. -BMuhlestein
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Columbia River Bar.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 46278 | 10 mi | 56 min | 49°F | 52°F | 11 ft | |||
| TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR | 10 mi | 56 min | 52°F | 30.15 | ||||
| 46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 | 37 mi | 180 min | 49°F | 10 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTMK TILLAMOOK,OR | 21 sm | 11 min | SSE 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 41°F | 41°F | 100% | 30.16 |
Wind History from TMK
(wind in knots)Brighton
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM PST 2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM PST 7.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM PST Moonset
Thu -- 03:01 PM PST 2.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM PST 5.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM PST 2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM PST 7.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM PST Moonset
Thu -- 03:01 PM PST 2.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM PST 5.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.7 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.2 |
| 3 am |
| 2.8 |
| 4 am |
| 3.7 |
| 5 am |
| 4.9 |
| 6 am |
| 6.1 |
| 7 am |
| 7 |
| 8 am |
| 7.4 |
| 9 am |
| 7.2 |
| 10 am |
| 6.5 |
| 11 am |
| 5.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.5 |
Barview
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:31 AM PST 1.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM PST 7.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM PST Moonset
Thu -- 03:03 PM PST 1.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 08:39 PM PST 5.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:31 AM PST 1.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM PST 7.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM PST Moonset
Thu -- 03:03 PM PST 1.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 08:39 PM PST 5.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2.6 |
| 4 am |
| 3.5 |
| 5 am |
| 4.7 |
| 6 am |
| 5.9 |
| 7 am |
| 6.8 |
| 8 am |
| 7.1 |
| 9 am |
| 6.9 |
| 10 am |
| 6.1 |
| 11 am |
| 5.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.2 |
Portland, OR,
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