Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manzanita, OR
November 1, 2024 6:33 PM PDT (01:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:51 AM Sunset 6:00 PM Moonrise 7:18 AM Moonset 4:50 PM |
PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon.
Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 223 Pm Pdt Fri Nov 1 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Winds weaken and seas subside this evening. The next weak front arrives Saturday evening from the north, building seas and bringing gusty northwesterly winds. A stronger system arrives late Sunday night, bringing gusty southerly winds and a 50 percent chance of seas exceeding 15 feet.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
Brighton Click for Map Fri -- 01:21 AM PDT 6.52 feet High Tide Fri -- 05:48 AM PDT New Moon Fri -- 06:41 AM PDT 2.64 feet Low Tide Fri -- 07:56 AM PDT Sunrise Fri -- 08:17 AM PDT Moonrise Fri -- 12:36 PM PDT 8.08 feet High Tide Fri -- 05:50 PM PDT Moonset Fri -- 06:01 PM PDT Sunset Fri -- 07:33 PM PDT -0.09 feet Low Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet
12 am |
5.9 |
1 am |
6.5 |
2 am |
6.4 |
3 am |
5.7 |
4 am |
4.6 |
5 am |
3.5 |
6 am |
2.8 |
7 am |
2.7 |
8 am |
3.2 |
9 am |
4.4 |
10 am |
5.8 |
11 am |
7.1 |
12 pm |
7.9 |
1 pm |
8 |
2 pm |
7.3 |
3 pm |
6 |
4 pm |
4.2 |
5 pm |
2.4 |
6 pm |
0.9 |
7 pm |
0 |
8 pm |
-0 |
9 pm |
0.7 |
10 pm |
2.1 |
11 pm |
3.7 |
Barview Click for Map Fri -- 01:12 AM PDT 6.23 feet High Tide Fri -- 05:48 AM PDT New Moon Fri -- 06:43 AM PDT 2.42 feet Low Tide Fri -- 07:56 AM PDT Sunrise Fri -- 08:17 AM PDT Moonrise Fri -- 12:27 PM PDT 7.73 feet High Tide Fri -- 05:51 PM PDT Moonset Fri -- 06:01 PM PDT Sunset Fri -- 07:35 PM PDT -0.09 feet Low Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet
12 am |
5.7 |
1 am |
6.2 |
2 am |
6 |
3 am |
5.3 |
4 am |
4.3 |
5 am |
3.3 |
6 am |
2.6 |
7 am |
2.5 |
8 am |
3 |
9 am |
4.2 |
10 am |
5.6 |
11 am |
6.9 |
12 pm |
7.6 |
1 pm |
7.6 |
2 pm |
6.9 |
3 pm |
5.6 |
4 pm |
3.9 |
5 pm |
2.2 |
6 pm |
0.8 |
7 pm |
0 |
8 pm |
-0 |
9 pm |
0.7 |
10 pm |
2 |
11 pm |
3.6 |
Area Discussion for Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 012155 CCA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 255 PM PDT Fri Nov 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
Light rain showers and mountain snow continues through Saturday. Diminishing showers on Sunday. Another frontal system moves across the area on Monday, with light rainfall amounts likely.
High pressure then expected to build across the region by mid-week with seasonably warm and dry conditions likely for at least a couple days.
SHORT TERM
(through Sunday)...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a potent shortwave trough digging into southwest Oregon. Earlier this morning, a small, but compact low developed near the coast and pushed a front across the area with maximum wind gusts along the coast up to 50 mph and inland up to 40-45 mph (strongest in the northern Willamette Valley). Also, weak atmospheric river moisture associated with the front brought moderate rainfall to the valleys and Coast Range, while also pushing snow levels back to above 5000 feet. Temperatures at the Cascade Passes have warmed above freezing, so snow sticking to the roads becomes less likely, but ski resorts at higher elevation may see another 3-6 inches through this evening. Will allow for all Winter Weather headlines to expire later this afternoon.
Expect showers to continue the remainder of the day and through tonight as weak surface low pressure persists near the Washington coast. A pair of shortwaves embedded within the upper level trough are expected to enhance shower activity later this afternoon and again overnight. Will also maintain a low (15-25%) chance of thunderstorms as colder air aloft (500 mb temps around -22 to -24 C)
remains in place, along with the low (but non-zero) possibility of funnel clouds.
With onshore flow on Saturday, expect another mostly cloudy fall day with occasional showers through the morning. Showers will likely increase through the afternoon and evening as another impulse within the upper level northwest jet pushes another weak frontal system across the Pacific NW. The heavier rain showers will likely be confined to the coast and the Cascade foothills, with 24-hour rainfall amounts likely to vary between 0.25 inch up to 1.00 inch, while the interior valleys are more likely to be rain-shadowed and see lesser amounts of around 0.25 inch. Snow levels are expected to drop again to around 4500 feet by Saturday morning, so the Cascade passes could see another round of snow through Saturday night. But amounts at this time do not appear to be very impactful, with around a 40% chance of 24-hour amounts exceeding 6 inches of snow.
By Sunday, the upper level ridge over the NE Pacific pushes into the Pacific NW with heights building aloft over the region. This is expected to bring diminishing showers through the day, leading to seasonably, mostly dry weather with temperatures warming into the upper 50s. /DH
LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...Models and their ensembles are in good agreement that another frontal system will approach the Pacific NW on Monday. Clusters show a high likelihood of troughing over the Gulf of Alaska dropping into the region along with decent agreement in terms of 24-hour precipitation amounts, generally around a quarter to a half inch through Monday night. The probability for exceeding 1 inch of rainfall is generally less than 10%, except along the northern coast and higher terrain from Mt Hood northward. A warm front ahead of the system will likely cause snow levels to rise as 850 mb temps warm to around 5 deg C. Breezy southerly winds will also be possible with this frontal system on Monday, especially along the north Oregon and south Washington coast, where there is currently around a 10-30% chance of max wind gusts exceeding 55 mph.
Will likely see some showers continue behind the front through Tuesday, but amounts are likely to be light according to ensembles.
There is increasing confidence among the clusters of upper level ridging building over the eastern Pacific and shifting over the Pacific NW by the middle of next week. There is actually very high confidence among the ensembles of a period of dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure during this time of year, especially after a period of rain, typically trends toward foggy mornings, so our temperatures may not warm too much out of the 50s.
But with any sunny afternoon skies there is the potential for seasonably warm days into the mid 60s. /DH
AVIATION
Broad low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will maintain showery conditions through the TAF period with a mix of high-end MVFR and low-end VFR cigs. Expect to see some occasional southerly gusts to 20-25 kt in the Willamette Valley this afternoon, but winds should weaken below 10 kt after 00-03z Sat.
Note that there is also a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms through 03-06z Sat across northwest Oregon, with the highest chances along the central Oregon coast and southern Willamette Valley. Any thunderstorms that develop could produce lightning, small hail, and/or funnel clouds. Brief rain downpours from thunderstorms would also impact visibility.
PDX APPROACHES...Low-end VFR cigs through the TAF period with some occasional MVFR cigs. Southerly to southwesterly winds generally under 10 kt tonight into Saturday. 15% chance of thunderstorms through 03z Sat. -Alviz
MARINE
Observations at buoys 46029 and 46050 as of 230 PM PDT show southwest winds 8-12 kt with gusts around 15 mph. While winds have begun to weaken behind the exiting system, seas still remain elevated around 13-15 feet at 12 seconds. Marine zones south of Cape Foulweather are still hovering near 15 feet, so decided to continue the Hazardous Seas Warnings for these zones. Meanwhile, the rest of the waters were downgraded to Small Craft Advisories for seas. These headlines remain in effect through this evening.
Expect a brief lull in marine weather conditions Saturday with seas falling to around 7-9 ft before the next weak front arrives Saturday evening. The low associated with this front will be coming from the north, so expect northwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt Saturday night into Sunday morning. Seas will also build to 10-12 feet at 10 seconds heading into Sunday.
Active weather continues early next week (Monday) as another robust low pressure system approaches western Canada. This low will produce a dominant northwest swell that will approach the Pacific Northwest, with guidance suggesting a 50-70% chance of seas exceeding 15 feet (Hazardous Seas). The front associated with this low will also strengthen southerly winds, with widespread gusts up to 30 kt. There is also a 20-40% chance for wind gusts exceeding 34 kt (Gale force) with this system, mainly for the waters north of Cape Falcon. -Alviz
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ126.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ127- 128.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for WAZ211.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251- 252-271-272.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ253- 273.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 255 PM PDT Fri Nov 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
Light rain showers and mountain snow continues through Saturday. Diminishing showers on Sunday. Another frontal system moves across the area on Monday, with light rainfall amounts likely.
High pressure then expected to build across the region by mid-week with seasonably warm and dry conditions likely for at least a couple days.
SHORT TERM
(through Sunday)...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a potent shortwave trough digging into southwest Oregon. Earlier this morning, a small, but compact low developed near the coast and pushed a front across the area with maximum wind gusts along the coast up to 50 mph and inland up to 40-45 mph (strongest in the northern Willamette Valley). Also, weak atmospheric river moisture associated with the front brought moderate rainfall to the valleys and Coast Range, while also pushing snow levels back to above 5000 feet. Temperatures at the Cascade Passes have warmed above freezing, so snow sticking to the roads becomes less likely, but ski resorts at higher elevation may see another 3-6 inches through this evening. Will allow for all Winter Weather headlines to expire later this afternoon.
Expect showers to continue the remainder of the day and through tonight as weak surface low pressure persists near the Washington coast. A pair of shortwaves embedded within the upper level trough are expected to enhance shower activity later this afternoon and again overnight. Will also maintain a low (15-25%) chance of thunderstorms as colder air aloft (500 mb temps around -22 to -24 C)
remains in place, along with the low (but non-zero) possibility of funnel clouds.
With onshore flow on Saturday, expect another mostly cloudy fall day with occasional showers through the morning. Showers will likely increase through the afternoon and evening as another impulse within the upper level northwest jet pushes another weak frontal system across the Pacific NW. The heavier rain showers will likely be confined to the coast and the Cascade foothills, with 24-hour rainfall amounts likely to vary between 0.25 inch up to 1.00 inch, while the interior valleys are more likely to be rain-shadowed and see lesser amounts of around 0.25 inch. Snow levels are expected to drop again to around 4500 feet by Saturday morning, so the Cascade passes could see another round of snow through Saturday night. But amounts at this time do not appear to be very impactful, with around a 40% chance of 24-hour amounts exceeding 6 inches of snow.
By Sunday, the upper level ridge over the NE Pacific pushes into the Pacific NW with heights building aloft over the region. This is expected to bring diminishing showers through the day, leading to seasonably, mostly dry weather with temperatures warming into the upper 50s. /DH
LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...Models and their ensembles are in good agreement that another frontal system will approach the Pacific NW on Monday. Clusters show a high likelihood of troughing over the Gulf of Alaska dropping into the region along with decent agreement in terms of 24-hour precipitation amounts, generally around a quarter to a half inch through Monday night. The probability for exceeding 1 inch of rainfall is generally less than 10%, except along the northern coast and higher terrain from Mt Hood northward. A warm front ahead of the system will likely cause snow levels to rise as 850 mb temps warm to around 5 deg C. Breezy southerly winds will also be possible with this frontal system on Monday, especially along the north Oregon and south Washington coast, where there is currently around a 10-30% chance of max wind gusts exceeding 55 mph.
Will likely see some showers continue behind the front through Tuesday, but amounts are likely to be light according to ensembles.
There is increasing confidence among the clusters of upper level ridging building over the eastern Pacific and shifting over the Pacific NW by the middle of next week. There is actually very high confidence among the ensembles of a period of dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure during this time of year, especially after a period of rain, typically trends toward foggy mornings, so our temperatures may not warm too much out of the 50s.
But with any sunny afternoon skies there is the potential for seasonably warm days into the mid 60s. /DH
AVIATION
Broad low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will maintain showery conditions through the TAF period with a mix of high-end MVFR and low-end VFR cigs. Expect to see some occasional southerly gusts to 20-25 kt in the Willamette Valley this afternoon, but winds should weaken below 10 kt after 00-03z Sat.
Note that there is also a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms through 03-06z Sat across northwest Oregon, with the highest chances along the central Oregon coast and southern Willamette Valley. Any thunderstorms that develop could produce lightning, small hail, and/or funnel clouds. Brief rain downpours from thunderstorms would also impact visibility.
PDX APPROACHES...Low-end VFR cigs through the TAF period with some occasional MVFR cigs. Southerly to southwesterly winds generally under 10 kt tonight into Saturday. 15% chance of thunderstorms through 03z Sat. -Alviz
MARINE
Observations at buoys 46029 and 46050 as of 230 PM PDT show southwest winds 8-12 kt with gusts around 15 mph. While winds have begun to weaken behind the exiting system, seas still remain elevated around 13-15 feet at 12 seconds. Marine zones south of Cape Foulweather are still hovering near 15 feet, so decided to continue the Hazardous Seas Warnings for these zones. Meanwhile, the rest of the waters were downgraded to Small Craft Advisories for seas. These headlines remain in effect through this evening.
Expect a brief lull in marine weather conditions Saturday with seas falling to around 7-9 ft before the next weak front arrives Saturday evening. The low associated with this front will be coming from the north, so expect northwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt Saturday night into Sunday morning. Seas will also build to 10-12 feet at 10 seconds heading into Sunday.
Active weather continues early next week (Monday) as another robust low pressure system approaches western Canada. This low will produce a dominant northwest swell that will approach the Pacific Northwest, with guidance suggesting a 50-70% chance of seas exceeding 15 feet (Hazardous Seas). The front associated with this low will also strengthen southerly winds, with widespread gusts up to 30 kt. There is also a 20-40% chance for wind gusts exceeding 34 kt (Gale force) with this system, mainly for the waters north of Cape Falcon. -Alviz
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ126.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ127- 128.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for WAZ211.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251- 252-271-272.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ253- 273.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
46278 | 10 mi | 64 min | 54°F | 54°F | 9 ft | |||
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 | 37 mi | 38 min | 55°F | 7 ft | ||||
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth | 43 mi | 34 min | SW 12G | 55°F | 56°F | 29.65 | 51°F | |
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) | 48 mi | 38 min | 56°F | 10 ft |
Wind History for No Ports station near this location
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTMK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTMK
Wind History Graph: TMK
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Pacific Northwest
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Portland, OR,
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