Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bozeman, MT

UPDATE
Quiet weather day underneath flat upper level ridging. The snow cover over/near Wheatland County held back temps significantly today and it is currently below freezing at Melville, Harlowton and Judith Gap. Downslope winds tonight should remain tame, so there seems to be a low risk (20%) of fog along the Musselshell valley tonight. Have added mention of patchy fog to this area from 06-15z, and have adjusted temps down some thru tomorrow. JKL

DISCUSSION
Through Tuesday...

An upper level low pressure system off the California Coast will bring a moisture fetch across much of the western US. Models are indicating that this moisture will be able to reach the Absaroka/Beartooth and Bighorn Mountains bringing light snow to these areas. The chance for getting greater than 6 inches of snow remains below 20% for the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains with a 20-50% chance for greater than 3 inches. The Bighorn mountains have a 10% chance for greater than 1 inch of snowfall.

There is high confidence that temperatures of 10-15 degrees above average will prevail through Saturday. Starting Sunday, an upper level trough over the west coast creates more uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are expected to cool with precipitation chances returning. Upper level troughing to our west looks to be persistent Sunday through the middle of next week.
Deterministic models are indicating that this pattern could eject multiple upper level waves over the northern plains bringing some stronger low pressure systems. There is a lot of uncertainty with this but at the very least next weeks weather pattern looks more active.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s and low 50s through Saturday before uncertainty increases starting Sunday. Torgerson

AVIATION

There is about a 10-20% chance for fog to develop tonight into Wednesday morning. These will be areas that have snow cover, especially along the river valleys (K3HT, KMLS, KBHK). TS

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 024/048 025/052 029/054 030/052 032/052 030/055 032/052 00/B 00/U 00/U 01/E 11/E 11/B 23/W LVM 024/046 026/050 028/049 029/047 031/049 031/052 032/047 01/B 10/U 00/B 01/E 12/W 22/W 34/J HDN 022/048 022/053 024/056 026/054 029/054 028/057 029/055 00/B 00/U 00/U 01/E 11/E 11/B 24/W MLS 023/046 021/047 024/050 026/050 027/049 026/052 029/048 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/E 10/B 14/W 4BQ 024/049 024/051 027/054 027/052 029/053 029/057 032/054 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/E 00/B 13/W BHK 021/049 021/048 024/050 025/049 025/049 025/051 028/047 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/E 00/B 24/W SHR 019/048 023/052 024/054 023/051 025/052 026/056 028/053 01/B 11/U 00/U 00/B 01/E 11/B 24/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.