Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bozeman, MT
December 2, 2023 9:15 PM MST (04:15 UTC)
Sunrise 7:43AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 9:42PM Moonset 12:23PM
Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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FXUS65 KBYZ 022213 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 313 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Monday night...
Several upper air disturbances will move across the Northern Rockies region tonight through Monday. The sensible weather that these disturbances will produce is gusty winds, strongest in the foothills west of Billings, and periods of mountain snow mainly on west and southwest-facing slopes. Temperatures will run a few degrees above climatological normal values.
Winds: The first upper air disturbance will move east/southeastward over Montana tonight. As it does so, 700 mb winds will strengthen over our area, and the sea-level pressure gradient over the western mountains and foothills will strengthen between a low over the MT/Canada border and higher sea-level pressure over northwestern WY. These factors will produce strong wind gusts to 60 mph in the Livingston-Nye corridor northward to Big Timber and Harlowton. The strong wind gusts have already begun in the Livingston-Nye corridor and will begin in the Big Timber- Harlowton corridor early this evening, around 7 PM MST or so.
Outside the foothills, it will be windy tonight especially over south central MT and north central WY, including the Billings and Sheridan areas, as surface pressures rise behind a cold frontal passage. There will be wind gusts to 40-50 mph in these areas tonight.
The first disturbance will then exit the area to the southeast Sunday morning. This pattern will cause 700 mb winds and, correspondingly, the SLP gradient, to weaken for a brief period during the day Sunday. Winds will relax a bit during the day Sunday.
Sunday night, another upper air disturbance will move east/southeastward mainly along the MT/Canada border and cause a similar pattern to develop in the SLP, though with greater magnitude. Models show stronger 700 mb winds approaching 70 kt over our area, which should produce wind gusts to 70 mph or so in the Big Timber-Harlowton area and to about 65 mph in the Livingston-Nye corridor. The probability of wind gusts reaching 70 mph at Big Timber is 70% and at Harlowton is 50%. Across the rest of the lower elevations, it will be another windy night with gusts to about 30-35 mph as surface pressures rise behind a cold frontal passage.
Have kept the Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings in place for the same areas and times. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and consider postponing travel until winds subside, or take an alternate route.
Monday will be a windy day across the area, but should have winds that are weaker than those expected tonight and Sunday night- early Monday morning. Look for wind gusts around 30-45 mph, strongest in the western foothills and in southeast MT.
Monday night, strong winds will re-develop over the western foothills, though with some uncertainty as some features are not perfectly aligned to produce 60 mph gusts. Surface pressures will lower again over north-central MT, which will facilitate a strengthened SLP gradient over the western mountains and foothills, but the 700 mb wind direction looks WNW to NW this time, which favors the Big Timber area more. However, the SLP pattern favors Livingston-Nye more...so given these partially offsetting features we do have wind gusts around 50-55 mph in the western foothills, but there is uncertainty in reaching higher wind gusts at this point.
Mountain snow: A steady stream of moisture has started feeding into the mountains. Shortwave energy and instability will produce increasing snow shower coverage (mainly on the west and southwest facing slopes). Snowfall does not look overly heavy (with the heaviest periods tonight and again Sunday night) but snow should be able to accumulate to near a foot through the weekend. In terms of additional snow, NBM probabilities give a 40% chance of 8 inches along the west facing slopes near Cooke City through Sunday night. Those with outdoor interests should be prepared for periods of accumulating snowfall through the weekend.
Temperatures: Highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s Sunday then 40s and 50s Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s tonight and Sunday night then 30s and 40s Monday night. TWH/RMS
Tuesday through Saturday...
Warm and windy conditions to start the extended period, then uncertainty creeps into the forecast with the timing/position of the next Pacific trough.
All ensembles were in agreement with an anomalously strong upper ridge over the forecast area for Tuesday. Debated going higher than NBM temps, but high precipitable waters, due to an atmospheric river, will create abundant cloud cover over the region, so left temps in the 50s to lower 60s, which is 20 degrees above normal. 700 mb winds were progged around 40 kt NW of the forecast area and pressure gradients were favorable for fairly strong gap and foothill winds. Kept the going winds just below Advisory criteria into early Wednesday and will need to keep an eye on model trends for winds. RH's appear too high for Fire Danger concerns and there will be too much cloud cover.
PoPs spread E into the area Wed. through Wed. night as the ridge shifts E. Expect rain over the plains and snow in the mountains.
PoPs will range from 20% in Rosebud County to 40% W of KBIL. On Thursday, flow becomes WSW ahead of the next trough. There was a good degree of ensemble spread with this trough, from the trough axis over the W. U.S. on Friday, to the bulk of the energy S of the forecast area to zonal flow over the region. Two clusters had precipitation above the ensemble mean for Thu. night/Fri. and two were drier than the mean. For now, NBM had 20-40% PoPs each period starting on Thu. and going through Fri., with higher mountain PoPs. For the 24 hours from 12Z Friday to 12Z Saturday, NBM chances of 2 or more inches of snow were 15% in KBIL and 28% in KSHR. Precipitation chances along with pattern uncertainty continued for Saturday. There will be a cooling trend Wed. through Saturday with possible normal temps on Saturday. Will need to watch the evolution of the trough with time due to the pattern uncertainty. Arthur
AVIATION
Surface wind gusts will increase to 45-55 kt tonight from K3HT to K6S0 to KLVM. Gusts of 40-50 kt are expected from around KBIL S.
Windy conditions will decrease Sunday morning. The chances of winds gusting to 40 kt or greater are 50% tonight at KBIL.
Otherwise, snow will develop over the western mountains late today, and 20-30% chances of snow will develop E and S of KBIL tonight, continuing into Sunday morning. There will be widespread mountain obscuration into tonight and areas of MVFR in snow over the plains into Sunday. Arthur
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 030/044 034/053 038/058 042/059 040/053 030/043 026/038 10/N 12/R 10/B 01/B 23/R 34/S 33/S LVM 025/044 035/052 040/056 041/056 037/048 025/040 023/035 61/N 33/R 20/N 02/R 44/R 44/S 43/S HDN 028/046 030/052 034/061 035/061 035/055 027/046 024/039 21/N 23/R 20/B 01/B 23/R 24/O 33/S MLS 027/041 028/048 031/056 039/058 037/052 028/042 025/036 21/N 21/N 10/E 01/B 11/B 12/O 22/S 4BQ 027/041 027/048 033/056 036/060 037/053 030/044 025/035 13/S 11/N 10/B 00/B 11/B 12/O 32/S BHK 022/037 022/045 024/051 034/057 033/051 024/039 020/035 21/N 10/N 00/B 00/B 11/B 12/S 32/S SHR 023/041 023/048 030/059 034/061 032/053 025/043 020/035 30/N 12/R 10/B 00/B 12/R 33/O 43/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
High Wind Warning remains in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory now in effect until 4 AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 65-66.
Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 10 AM MST Monday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 313 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Monday night...
Several upper air disturbances will move across the Northern Rockies region tonight through Monday. The sensible weather that these disturbances will produce is gusty winds, strongest in the foothills west of Billings, and periods of mountain snow mainly on west and southwest-facing slopes. Temperatures will run a few degrees above climatological normal values.
Winds: The first upper air disturbance will move east/southeastward over Montana tonight. As it does so, 700 mb winds will strengthen over our area, and the sea-level pressure gradient over the western mountains and foothills will strengthen between a low over the MT/Canada border and higher sea-level pressure over northwestern WY. These factors will produce strong wind gusts to 60 mph in the Livingston-Nye corridor northward to Big Timber and Harlowton. The strong wind gusts have already begun in the Livingston-Nye corridor and will begin in the Big Timber- Harlowton corridor early this evening, around 7 PM MST or so.
Outside the foothills, it will be windy tonight especially over south central MT and north central WY, including the Billings and Sheridan areas, as surface pressures rise behind a cold frontal passage. There will be wind gusts to 40-50 mph in these areas tonight.
The first disturbance will then exit the area to the southeast Sunday morning. This pattern will cause 700 mb winds and, correspondingly, the SLP gradient, to weaken for a brief period during the day Sunday. Winds will relax a bit during the day Sunday.
Sunday night, another upper air disturbance will move east/southeastward mainly along the MT/Canada border and cause a similar pattern to develop in the SLP, though with greater magnitude. Models show stronger 700 mb winds approaching 70 kt over our area, which should produce wind gusts to 70 mph or so in the Big Timber-Harlowton area and to about 65 mph in the Livingston-Nye corridor. The probability of wind gusts reaching 70 mph at Big Timber is 70% and at Harlowton is 50%. Across the rest of the lower elevations, it will be another windy night with gusts to about 30-35 mph as surface pressures rise behind a cold frontal passage.
Have kept the Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings in place for the same areas and times. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and consider postponing travel until winds subside, or take an alternate route.
Monday will be a windy day across the area, but should have winds that are weaker than those expected tonight and Sunday night- early Monday morning. Look for wind gusts around 30-45 mph, strongest in the western foothills and in southeast MT.
Monday night, strong winds will re-develop over the western foothills, though with some uncertainty as some features are not perfectly aligned to produce 60 mph gusts. Surface pressures will lower again over north-central MT, which will facilitate a strengthened SLP gradient over the western mountains and foothills, but the 700 mb wind direction looks WNW to NW this time, which favors the Big Timber area more. However, the SLP pattern favors Livingston-Nye more...so given these partially offsetting features we do have wind gusts around 50-55 mph in the western foothills, but there is uncertainty in reaching higher wind gusts at this point.
Mountain snow: A steady stream of moisture has started feeding into the mountains. Shortwave energy and instability will produce increasing snow shower coverage (mainly on the west and southwest facing slopes). Snowfall does not look overly heavy (with the heaviest periods tonight and again Sunday night) but snow should be able to accumulate to near a foot through the weekend. In terms of additional snow, NBM probabilities give a 40% chance of 8 inches along the west facing slopes near Cooke City through Sunday night. Those with outdoor interests should be prepared for periods of accumulating snowfall through the weekend.
Temperatures: Highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s Sunday then 40s and 50s Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s tonight and Sunday night then 30s and 40s Monday night. TWH/RMS
Tuesday through Saturday...
Warm and windy conditions to start the extended period, then uncertainty creeps into the forecast with the timing/position of the next Pacific trough.
All ensembles were in agreement with an anomalously strong upper ridge over the forecast area for Tuesday. Debated going higher than NBM temps, but high precipitable waters, due to an atmospheric river, will create abundant cloud cover over the region, so left temps in the 50s to lower 60s, which is 20 degrees above normal. 700 mb winds were progged around 40 kt NW of the forecast area and pressure gradients were favorable for fairly strong gap and foothill winds. Kept the going winds just below Advisory criteria into early Wednesday and will need to keep an eye on model trends for winds. RH's appear too high for Fire Danger concerns and there will be too much cloud cover.
PoPs spread E into the area Wed. through Wed. night as the ridge shifts E. Expect rain over the plains and snow in the mountains.
PoPs will range from 20% in Rosebud County to 40% W of KBIL. On Thursday, flow becomes WSW ahead of the next trough. There was a good degree of ensemble spread with this trough, from the trough axis over the W. U.S. on Friday, to the bulk of the energy S of the forecast area to zonal flow over the region. Two clusters had precipitation above the ensemble mean for Thu. night/Fri. and two were drier than the mean. For now, NBM had 20-40% PoPs each period starting on Thu. and going through Fri., with higher mountain PoPs. For the 24 hours from 12Z Friday to 12Z Saturday, NBM chances of 2 or more inches of snow were 15% in KBIL and 28% in KSHR. Precipitation chances along with pattern uncertainty continued for Saturday. There will be a cooling trend Wed. through Saturday with possible normal temps on Saturday. Will need to watch the evolution of the trough with time due to the pattern uncertainty. Arthur
AVIATION
Surface wind gusts will increase to 45-55 kt tonight from K3HT to K6S0 to KLVM. Gusts of 40-50 kt are expected from around KBIL S.
Windy conditions will decrease Sunday morning. The chances of winds gusting to 40 kt or greater are 50% tonight at KBIL.
Otherwise, snow will develop over the western mountains late today, and 20-30% chances of snow will develop E and S of KBIL tonight, continuing into Sunday morning. There will be widespread mountain obscuration into tonight and areas of MVFR in snow over the plains into Sunday. Arthur
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 030/044 034/053 038/058 042/059 040/053 030/043 026/038 10/N 12/R 10/B 01/B 23/R 34/S 33/S LVM 025/044 035/052 040/056 041/056 037/048 025/040 023/035 61/N 33/R 20/N 02/R 44/R 44/S 43/S HDN 028/046 030/052 034/061 035/061 035/055 027/046 024/039 21/N 23/R 20/B 01/B 23/R 24/O 33/S MLS 027/041 028/048 031/056 039/058 037/052 028/042 025/036 21/N 21/N 10/E 01/B 11/B 12/O 22/S 4BQ 027/041 027/048 033/056 036/060 037/053 030/044 025/035 13/S 11/N 10/B 00/B 11/B 12/O 32/S BHK 022/037 022/045 024/051 034/057 033/051 024/039 020/035 21/N 10/N 00/B 00/B 11/B 12/S 32/S SHR 023/041 023/048 030/059 034/061 032/053 025/043 020/035 30/N 12/R 10/B 00/B 12/R 33/O 43/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
High Wind Warning remains in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory now in effect until 4 AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 65-66.
Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 10 AM MST Monday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBZN BOZEMAN YELLOWSTONE INTL,MT | 10 sm | 19 min | WNW 14G26 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 34°F | 19°F | 55% | 29.64 |
Wind History from BZN
(wind in knots)
Billings, MT,
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