Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bozeman, MT
May 16, 2024 2:07 PM MDT (20:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 12:57 PM Moonset 2:12 AM |
FXUS65 KBYZ 161515 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 915 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024
UPDATE
Raised wind gusts through the day, mainly for the W, based on latest observations and GFS soundings. There was a good deal of cloud cover across the area this morning per satellite imagery and obs showing mid to high cloud cover. However, clearing was moving in from the NW so expecting fair amount of sunshine at times and will not adjust going high temps. Otherwise, PoPs were in good shape and soundings had 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 30-40 kt Bulk Effective Shear, so stronger storms with gusty winds/hail possible this afternoon and evening. Arthur
DISCUSSION
Today through Friday night...
Upper level pattern for the next few days has a trof sitting over SW Canada that swings a few disturbances through the area, and a period of stronger jet dynamics Friday afternoon into Friday night. Probabilities for precipitation Today are fairly low with a weak disturbance bringing 20 to 30 percent chances to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon/evening.
Stronger jet support support will enhance the dynamics associated with another disturbance Friday, producing a good chance (50-80 percent) for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
A couple of waves of QG forcing moving through the area in concert with H7 Frontogenesis dropping in from the northwest and a surface cold front reflected at the surface will be the impetus for shower/thunderstorm development and will help to push precipitation persistence and amounts higher than the H5 pattern itself would suggest. The NBM is going with moderate rain potential for a few hours Friday afternoon/evening for central areas, with the probabilities of over a quarter of an inch of rain ranging from 40-70 percent from a Ryegate to Columbus line eastward to a Miles City to Sheridan WY line.
Snow levels start out around 9500 feet on Friday afternoon, but drop quickly to around 5000 feet by Saturday morning. Can't rule out a wet dusting of snow late Friday evening down to around 5000 feet, but no impacts expected from this activity.
Winds will be breezy today, with mixing from above bringing westerly gusts to 25 mph this afternoon. Winds will also increase Friday evening as 850mb winds increase to 30 to 40 mph behind the cold front and upper level energy. Its a bit harder to push stronger winds aloft down to the surface at night, so its likely that gusts will hold under 30 mph except where shower/thunderstorm precipitation pushes those elevated winds downward. Chambers
Saturday through Wednesday...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the weekend and into next week.
A quick moving system will impact the region Saturday, followed by a trough impacting the region Sunday through Wednesday.
Isolated showers are possible (10-20%) Saturday, but the best chance for widespread precipitation begins Sunday.
Currently, for each day Sunday through Wednesday, there is a 40-50% of at least 0.1" of precip west and south of Billings and a 20-30% chance of the same from Billings east and north.
Additionally, the occasional thunderstorm will be possible (20%)
over the west each afternoon.
High temperatures over the weekend will be in the mid 60s to near 70, dropping a bit to upper 50s to mid 60s for Monday through Wednesday. Archer
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, starting in the western mountains/foothills and spreading east through the evening hours, dissipating overnight. Precipitation with this activity will be generally light, with any thunderstorms producing heavier downpours that might reduce visibility to near MVFR levels briefly, and small hail. Westerly winds will gust potential is 25 kts this afternoon, diminishing around sunset this evening. Chambers
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 079 049/072 042/066 043/064 040/062 042/063 042/065 2/T 27/T 50/U 14/T 35/T 34/T 24/R LVM 077 047/068 036/066 039/060 035/059 037/061 039/063 2/T 15/T 30/N 16/T 35/T 24/T 35/T HDN 079 048/075 041/068 041/067 038/064 040/064 042/068 2/T 37/T 70/U 13/R 34/T 33/R 23/R MLS 077 049/073 043/065 043/068 041/062 042/062 041/066 2/T 36/T 61/N 12/R 22/T 22/R 22/R 4BQ 077 051/080 042/065 042/072 041/062 042/063 041/067 1/B 24/T 60/U 11/B 22/R 33/R 22/R BHK 076 048/077 040/065 039/071 039/062 038/061 037/064 1/B 25/T 61/N 11/B 32/R 23/R 23/R SHR 076 047/078 036/066 041/071 037/059 037/061 038/065 1/B 25/T 60/U 02/T 25/T 44/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 915 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024
UPDATE
Raised wind gusts through the day, mainly for the W, based on latest observations and GFS soundings. There was a good deal of cloud cover across the area this morning per satellite imagery and obs showing mid to high cloud cover. However, clearing was moving in from the NW so expecting fair amount of sunshine at times and will not adjust going high temps. Otherwise, PoPs were in good shape and soundings had 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 30-40 kt Bulk Effective Shear, so stronger storms with gusty winds/hail possible this afternoon and evening. Arthur
DISCUSSION
Today through Friday night...
Upper level pattern for the next few days has a trof sitting over SW Canada that swings a few disturbances through the area, and a period of stronger jet dynamics Friday afternoon into Friday night. Probabilities for precipitation Today are fairly low with a weak disturbance bringing 20 to 30 percent chances to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon/evening.
Stronger jet support support will enhance the dynamics associated with another disturbance Friday, producing a good chance (50-80 percent) for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
A couple of waves of QG forcing moving through the area in concert with H7 Frontogenesis dropping in from the northwest and a surface cold front reflected at the surface will be the impetus for shower/thunderstorm development and will help to push precipitation persistence and amounts higher than the H5 pattern itself would suggest. The NBM is going with moderate rain potential for a few hours Friday afternoon/evening for central areas, with the probabilities of over a quarter of an inch of rain ranging from 40-70 percent from a Ryegate to Columbus line eastward to a Miles City to Sheridan WY line.
Snow levels start out around 9500 feet on Friday afternoon, but drop quickly to around 5000 feet by Saturday morning. Can't rule out a wet dusting of snow late Friday evening down to around 5000 feet, but no impacts expected from this activity.
Winds will be breezy today, with mixing from above bringing westerly gusts to 25 mph this afternoon. Winds will also increase Friday evening as 850mb winds increase to 30 to 40 mph behind the cold front and upper level energy. Its a bit harder to push stronger winds aloft down to the surface at night, so its likely that gusts will hold under 30 mph except where shower/thunderstorm precipitation pushes those elevated winds downward. Chambers
Saturday through Wednesday...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the weekend and into next week.
A quick moving system will impact the region Saturday, followed by a trough impacting the region Sunday through Wednesday.
Isolated showers are possible (10-20%) Saturday, but the best chance for widespread precipitation begins Sunday.
Currently, for each day Sunday through Wednesday, there is a 40-50% of at least 0.1" of precip west and south of Billings and a 20-30% chance of the same from Billings east and north.
Additionally, the occasional thunderstorm will be possible (20%)
over the west each afternoon.
High temperatures over the weekend will be in the mid 60s to near 70, dropping a bit to upper 50s to mid 60s for Monday through Wednesday. Archer
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, starting in the western mountains/foothills and spreading east through the evening hours, dissipating overnight. Precipitation with this activity will be generally light, with any thunderstorms producing heavier downpours that might reduce visibility to near MVFR levels briefly, and small hail. Westerly winds will gust potential is 25 kts this afternoon, diminishing around sunset this evening. Chambers
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 079 049/072 042/066 043/064 040/062 042/063 042/065 2/T 27/T 50/U 14/T 35/T 34/T 24/R LVM 077 047/068 036/066 039/060 035/059 037/061 039/063 2/T 15/T 30/N 16/T 35/T 24/T 35/T HDN 079 048/075 041/068 041/067 038/064 040/064 042/068 2/T 37/T 70/U 13/R 34/T 33/R 23/R MLS 077 049/073 043/065 043/068 041/062 042/062 041/066 2/T 36/T 61/N 12/R 22/T 22/R 22/R 4BQ 077 051/080 042/065 042/072 041/062 042/063 041/067 1/B 24/T 60/U 11/B 22/R 33/R 22/R BHK 076 048/077 040/065 039/071 039/062 038/061 037/064 1/B 25/T 61/N 11/B 32/R 23/R 23/R SHR 076 047/078 036/066 041/071 037/059 037/061 038/065 1/B 25/T 60/U 02/T 25/T 44/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBZN BOZEMAN YELLOWSTONE INTL,MT | 10 sm | 11 min | SW 11 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 73°F | 37°F | 27% | 29.76 |
Billings, MT,
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