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FXUS66 KPQR 071906 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1105 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

Updated public, aviation, and marine forecast discussion and WWA headlines...

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure moving across the region today, along with cooler air aloft, will provide plenty of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two along the coast. Snow will pile up in the Cascades. Will get a break in the weather for Friday, with only a small chance of showers. But rain returns for the weekend. Cooler and drier weather expected to return next week.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

10 AM UPDATE: No major changes made to the current forecast. Current radar imagery and observations as of 10 AM PST show scattered, light showers across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Steadier rain has been falling from Linn County southward, as a shortwave trough moves in an pushes a cold front through the OR/CA border. The current winter weather advisory for the Cascades remains on track.
Observations show around a Trace to 4 inches of snow have fallen across the Cascades. -Alviz

SHORT TERM CONTINUED: Will likely get some breezy south winds along the coast today, then winds turn west to southwest behind the low as it moves onshore and inland over the Willapa Hills and on to the east. While high winds not expected, should see gusts 25 to 35 mph through about late morning.

Again, plenty of showers today as the system moves inland. Will also have a few isolated thunderstorms on the coastal waters, spreading onshore by daybreak. Once the low moves inland, westerly flow aloft will maintain onshore flow with cool unstable air. Snow levels are running around 3500 to 4000 ft this am. With the favorable west to southwest flow, will have improved orographic flow. While precipitation amounts will not all that heavy, should be enough to maintain decent snowfall across the Cascades. Generally, look to get 10 to 20 inches of snow in the Cascades for today through early Friday am. As such, will put up Winter Weather Advisory for areas above 3500 feet for today through mid-Friday am.

Showers will gradually decrease later tonight into Friday morning, as get weak ridging. May even have enough to have rather large period of dry weather. But, will maintain some chance PoPs for many areas, primarily over the Cascades. Do think will drier weather by Friday evening, with that dry weather lasting through most of Friday night.
-Alviz/Rockey

LONGER TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)...
Next system arriving on Saturday. But models have been slowing this system down, and delaying the rain across the region. So, with coordination with neighboring offices, will slow rain arrival on Sat.
Will spread rain inland along the coast by afternoon, and further inland in the afternoon (mainly the northern zones, or Portland northward. Bulk of this system will push over most of the region Sat night into Sunday morning. Not the heavy rain as seen early this week, but will get enough rain for some rises on rivers. Still, no renewed flooding expected. Rainfall generally in 1 to 3 inches range along the coast/coast mtns, and across southwest Washington, with 0.50 to 1 inch for inland lowlands.

WPC cluster analysis shows upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast early next week bringing a couple of dry days to the region. However, there are indications that another frontal system could impact the region sometime mid to late week, though uncertainty is high in precipitation amounts at this time. /Rockey/Alviz

AVIATION
An occluded front associated with a shortwave over the Puget Sound has moved east of the Cascades and postfrontal showers will continue across the area through much of the TAF period.
There is greater confidence that ceilings will break up into low end VFR for most terminal west of the I-5 corridor. For terminals to the east, westerly flow against the Cascades will backbuild MVFR stratus into the Willamette Valley which will cause fluctuating ceilings. HRRR still shows a 30-50% chance for MVFR ceilings across much of the area throughout the forecast period.
Westerly winds around 10 kt through the afternoon and into this evening.

*Please note that the automated weather station at KONP (Newport) is currently out of service. This site is not maintained by the National Weather Service. Because of this, the TAF produced for KONP is based on model data without the input of observations, and may not be representative of current conditions.*

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect a mix of VFR and MVFR with guidance still suggesting a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs throughout the TAF period. Expect westerly winds around 10 kt through this evening with winds diminishing during the overnight period. -BMuhlestein

MARINE
General seas are continuing to come down with observations as of 10 AM showing 10-12 ft at 15 seconds across the waters. Will allow the Hazardous Seas Warning to expire on time with Small Craft Advisory level seas continuing through Friday afternoon.

High pressure will build across the waters Friday bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 8-10 ft remaining. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts likely ahead of the cold front which is expected to cross the waters Saturday evening. High pressure will build across the waters early next week. -BMuhlestein

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

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