Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nehalem, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:09PM Sunday March 7, 2021 5:07 PM PST (01:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:33AMMoonset 12:01PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 300 Pm Pst Sun Mar 7 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 17 ft at 16 seconds.
Mon..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tue..SE wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tue night..E wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Thu..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 7 ft.
Fri..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 300 Pm Pst Sun Mar 7 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Post-frontal showers expected through this evening, with gusty winds possible near stronger showers. Low pressure settles over the eastern pacific Monday morning and is expected to sink south into the north california waters by Tuesday morning. High pressure returns on Wednesday and continues into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nehalem, OR
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location: 45.72, -123.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 072238 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 235 PM PST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure dropping south offshore will keep a threat of showers over the region through the early part of the week. Upper level high pressure is expected to bring drier weather for Wednesday through early Friday, and possibly extend into the weekend.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday . Radar and surface observations continued to show scattered showers across the area early Sunday afternoon. Water vapor pictures showed a shortwave that grazed the northwest part of the forecast area this morning, lifting north through western Washington. The primary upper low was still centered out near 49N 138W, slowly moving south. As we lose daytime heating, models continue to indicate air mass rapidly stabilizing this evening across the region, with the focus of shower activity shifting back offshore closer to the main upper trough. This will lead to showers ending this evening, with the resulting low level stable atmosphere conducive to some patchy fog development late tonight into Monday morning.

An increasingly southerly upper level flow as the offshore low pressure system continues to drift south will ultimately lead to a return of deeper moisture Monday and Tuesday. A few weak shortwaves will likely lift north through the forecast area in that time period leading to chances for showers, but with the best energy associated with the upper low directed to the south, the best chances for showers will tend to remain across the south part of the forecast area. Models soundings continue to hint at some minimal CAPE values both days, but this appears to marginal at best, and so will continue to omit any chances for thunder.

Tuesday night into Wednesday models show the closed low consolidating and headed south to off the north California coast. The loss of the southerly influx of moisture will tend to diminish pops, with the primary threat of showers by Wednesday shifting to the Cascades as a result of some wrap around moisture and instability on the north side of the low.

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . GEFS 500 mb clusters supported by EC operational and ensemble mean clearly signaling an upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest from Wednesday night through Friday, for a period of dry and seasonably mild weather. A majority of these members suggest the dry weather continuing into Saturday, but enough of the cluster members showing a breakdown of the ridge to need to include some low chances for rain by Saturday. By Sunday model solutions diverge considerably, with enough members showing some form of a trough to modestly increase chances for rain for the end of the weekend.

AVIATION. Showers continue to move over the area this afternoon producing periods of moderate rain, small hail and some thunderstorms. Most of the thunder has been isolated to the coast, however, cannot rule out a strike or two inland. Hail and rain will be more common throughout all of the forecast area though and have had reports of nearly .75 inch hail. Significant cool air aloft is present with freezing levels around 3000 ft. Showers should begin to dissipate after 01Z Mon, but could see some brief periods of showers through the evening. VFR cigs expected through the evening but could see some MVFR conditions and gusty winds with passing heavier showers.

Overnight, high pressure develops and skies will clear. Radiational cooling and winds going slack will increase the chance for fog and/or low stratus after 10Z Monday . even reaching IFR levels. Areas most prone will be around KHIO, KPDX, and KUAO. There is a chance further down in the Willamette Valley, however less rain today means there is less available moisture. By 17Z Monday, skies again will lift and VFR conditions will return.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mainly VFR through through this evening aside from brief periods of MVFR cigs with passing showers or thunderstorms. Any shower or storm this afternoon will have the potential to bring small hail, brief gusty winds between 20-30 kt, and lowered visibilities. Confidence regarding timing of thunderstorm activity is low so did not include in TAFs, however the the threat should dissipate after 04Z Monday. There is also the potential for fog to develop at the terminal after 10Z Monday. -Muessle

MARINE. Tonight into Monday marks the last period of active weather over the waters for much of the next week. A weak low pressure and associated cold front are moving inland this afternoon bringing gusty winds, showers, small hail and increased wind waves. Winds are generally 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, but with showers, observing gusts to 30 kt in some locations. The general background swell is around 10 to 13 ft but will rise to 16 to 18 ft at 16 seconds through the overnight hours. Most model guidance is showing 18 ft really being the maximum combined wave heights but there is a chance that the top 10% could reach 20 ft or so. These seas will ease as fast as they rise and should reach 10 to 12 ft at 14 seconds by Monday afternoon.

Into next week, more settled weather expected with little influencing systems approaching. Seas will remain 9 to 11 ft at 13 seconds Tuesday through Wednesday then ease even further on Wednesday. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Columbia River Bar.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 12 mi49 min 1022.3 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 34 mi49 min SSW 13 G 23 48°F 45°F1020.9 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi41 min 48°F11 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 43 mi37 min SSW 18 G 21 48°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi72 minS 11 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F36°F58%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Nehalem
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Sun -- 01:29 AM PST     2.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:32 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:04 AM PST     7.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:00 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:18 PM PST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:11 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:40 PM PST     5.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.72.73.34.45.66.67.16.96.25.23.92.51.30.400.212.23.54.55.25.24.9

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon (2)
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Garibaldi
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:49 AM PST     3.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:31 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:01 AM PST     7.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:01 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:38 PM PST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:11 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:37 PM PST     5.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.53.84.65.66.67.57.87.56.65.33.72.10.90.100.61.62.94.25.15.75.75.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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