Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nehalem, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 4:30PM Monday December 9, 2019 11:29 AM PST (19:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:20PMMoonset 4:51AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 244 Am Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Today..SE wind 5 kt. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 13 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog before Sunrise.
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of light showers.
Tue..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 13 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 15 ft.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 14 ft.
PZZ200 244 Am Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres inland with low pres well offshore through Mon night. A series of fronts will reach the waters through at least mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nehalem, OR
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location: 45.72, -123.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 091730 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 929 AM PST Mon Dec 9 2019

Short term and aviation discussion updated.

SYNOPSIS. Dry today, but wet pattern resumes Tue, as a series of front line up to push into the Pac NW this week. More rain arrives later Wed, with rather wet Thu on tap. The wet unsettled weather continuing into next weekend, though there is some hints of drying later next weekend. Snow levels stay at or above pass levels.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday . Visibility in fog has generally improved to above 1/4 mile, so cancelled Dense Fog Advisory. Fog will still be present in some spots, but expect the overall improvement trend to continue. The remainder of the short term discussion follows. Bowen

Brief ridging over the region today, with dry weather on tap. However, still have considerable low clouds across much the region, with areas of morning fog. No fog advisories as visibility in the fog will generally be a half to 2 miles. Any dense fog will be rather spotty and localized. However, A different case for the Willamette Valley from Wilsonville southward through Eugene, as will see widespread fog with visibility below 1 mile. Will put up Dense Fog Advisory for Central and South WIllamette Valley, for areas of dense fog. But, will not issue any dense fog advisory for the interior from Portland northward, as the dense fog for those areas would be patchy and localized. Air mass will remain quite saturated for this morning, so any fog will be slow to thin.

Otherwise, mix of sun and clouds on top above the fog, with mild temperatures expected again today.

Next front will approach the region later tonight, with increasing mid and high clouds. Thicker clouds do not arrive until later tonight, so will be plenty of time for temperatures to cool and air mass to saturate, with areas of fog for the interior. Spotty rain should spread the coast late tonight, with rain spreading inland after daybreak Tue. System is getting stretched apart, so support for any decent rainfall is limited. Will keep PoPs somewhat elevated, but rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side. Remains of the front will gradually shift inland during the day, with rain becoming more spotty in nature by mid to late afternoon.

Brief break for Tue night into early Wed, as weak ridge passes over the region. But, the next front will be fast approaching from the west on Wed. At moment, have decided to go with a 60-40 blend of the GFS/NAM and ECMWF runs, which have timing differences with arrival of the rain. But, all seem to agree that rain will be increasing over the region late Wed afternoon into the evening. Will trend forecasts in that direction. /Rockey

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . A front will move into northwest Oregon and southwest Washington on Thursday bringing ample precipitation to the area. While it will predominately fall as rain, snow is expected along the Cascades. This front is well ahead of a broad low pressure system with the low centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska. As the low moves eastward, zonal flow will take over. This generally westerly flow will usher in colder air from the North Pacific which will cause temperatures to begin to fall slightly on Friday. Snow levels will follow suit dropping to near 3,500 ft Friday night. A weak shortwave and continuous cold air flow will bring low temperatures to the mid 30s through the Willamette Vally, and snow levels below 2,000 ft on Sunday.

At this point, models are in decent agreement with the overall synoptic pattern, but there is quite a bit of spread in the mesoscale features. The spread in solutions is leading to less confidence in the output after Friday. /Muessle

AVIATION. Light easterly-southeasterly winds are helping to lift low lying IFR/MVFR stratus across the area. Models are in good agreement that conditions should improve to VFR ceilings by 21Z Mon. KUAO and KAST are still experiencing fog in the 1/2 to 1/4SM range but this should improve by 21Z as well. Continued stable conditions this evening may bring a return of IFR conditions Tuesday morning. However, models are indicating that the upper level ridge will shift east of the Cascades late tonight and early Tue which could increase clouds and southwest flow aloft likely inhibiting fog development.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Will see IFR/LIFR conditions in the area improve by 17-18Z with VFR likely shortly after. Increasing east wind will likely keep the area VFR through tonight, particularly KPDX eastward. BPhillips/mh

MARINE. Another quiet day across the marine waters with light offshore flow with seas around 5 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. But this will change as a series of front will affect the waters through mid week. By Tue morning the first front to bring southerly wind gusts 25 kt, but then quickly fall back to the 15 kt. Seas will temporarily build to near 11 ft Tue afternoon.

Zonal westerly flow around a broad low pressure over the north Pacific is expected to increase seas to near 15 ft by Thu. While the low is not expected to advance towards the waters, a shortwave embedded in the flow around the low will. At this time, confidence in this system is not high as models are depicting seas a bit higher than what would generally be expected with this system. It is possible that seas will be increased as the event comes closer. /mh -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.



PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon Tuesday for much of the interior below 1500 feet elevation.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon Tuesday for much of interior southwest Washington below 1500 feet elevation.

PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 12 mi60 min 48°F1023.4 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 34 mi60 min S 4.1 G 7 47°F 46°F1023 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi60 min 49°F5 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 43 mi40 min E 5.8 G 7.8 45°F 49°F6 ft1023.2 hPa (+0.3)44°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair45°F42°F93%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE3S3CalmSE3CalmCalmSE3W4CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Nehalem
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:50 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:53 AM PST     2.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM PST     7.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:19 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:03 PM PST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM PST     5.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.34.73.82.92.32.12.63.75.26.67.57.56.85.74.32.81.50.60.20.61.73.24.65.5

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon (2)
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Garibaldi
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:12 AM PST     2.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:50 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:23 AM PST     8.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:23 PM PST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 PM PST     6.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.8543.22.833.756.47.68.28.17.35.94.12.41.10.40.51.32.645.36.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.