Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Felida, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:12PM Saturday September 21, 2019 2:15 PM PDT (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 1:28PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 256 Am Pdt Sat Sep 21 2019
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 4 ft through Saturday night. - first ebb...around 10 am Saturday. Seas to 5 ft. - second ebb...around 1030 pm Saturday. Seas to 7 ft. - third ebb...around 1115 am Sunday. Seas to 8 ft.
PZZ200 256 Am Pdt Sat Sep 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will remain offshore through Saturday. A cold front will move east across the coastal waters Sunday. High pressure returns to the waters by Sunday night. Another front moves through Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felida, WA
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location: 45.73, -122.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 211700
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
1000 am pdt Sat sep 21 2019
updated aviation discussion

Synopsis Brief high pressure will bring clearing skies this
afternoon. However, clouds will be on the increase again tonight
ahead of a cold front that will spread more rain across the forecast
area Sunday. Sunday night may be the coolest night so far this
season followed by dry and mild weather Monday. Additional frontal
systems may bring more wet weather Tuesday and again later in the
week with temperatures remaining a little cooler than typical for
late september.

Short term Today through Monday... Made a quick update this
morning to adjust cloud cover to better reflect reality. Also added
drizzle to the north coastal areas where langley hill radar is
getting support from kast and camera obs. Rest of the previous
discussion follows. Jbonk
otherwise, areas of morning low clouds and fog will give way to
increasing sunshine throughout the day, allowing temperatures to
climb close to late-september normals with lower to mid 70s for the
inland valleys and mid 60s to lower 70s along the coast.

Model time-heights and 00z href suggest high clouds will increase and
thicken this evening as a frontal system now crossing 135w-140w
approaches the region. Rain will likely move onshore by dawn Sunday,
then spread inland and south across the forecast area during the day
Sunday. Jet forcing continues to look weak ahead of this system, with
winds generally 50 kt or less above at 500 mb and above. This will
keep winds modest ahead of the front, and should limit the potential
for orographic enhancement rainfall as the front moves through.

Therefore we are expecting QPF to be more uniform across the area
than the past couple fronts, at least based on terrain. Most
locations in our forecast area should receive around 0.25" from this
system, plus or minus 0.10" or so. Model soundings suggest some weak
instability thin CAPE along and just behind the front, which may
introduce convective elements which could locally push rainfall into
the 0.50 to 1.00" range. There will be a brief window for isolated
thunder Sunday afternoon and evening as the associated cold pool
aloft swings through. The 06z NAM continues to suggest a capping
inversion will quickly develop around 700 mb Sunday evening, which
should cause showers to taper off quickly overnight.

High pressure builds into the region Sunday night and early Monday,
which may lead to rapid clearing for the valleys. Given the cool air
mass left behind (with 850 mb temps around +5 deg c) and improving
conditions for radiational cooling, the stage may be set for the
coolest night so far this season for many locations within the
forecast area. Most locations will likely dip well into the 40s
Sunday night, with some higher elevation valleys possibly getting
into the upper 30s. Is this enough for records Monday? Not even
close. The record low for Monday is a frosty 31 degrees at hillsboro
and eugene, while the record is 40 for pdx. Our forecast lows for
Monday are a good 10 or more degrees warmer than these temperatures.

Still, it will be a noticeable touch of autumn after a summer where
mild to warm nights have been the norm.

After a cool start with areas of valley fog Monday morning, high
pressure should result in increasing sunshine Monday afternoon with
temperatures rebounding to the mid to upper 60s for the lowlands. One
tricky aspect about Monday may be how slow morning fog low clouds are
to clear; with little low-level flow to speak of west of the
cascades, mixing may be slower than usual to occur. With Monday being
the first day of astronomical autumn, the Sun isn't as strong as it
was a few weeks ago but should still be enough to poke some decent
sunbreaks into the stratus deck Monday afternoon. Weagle

Long term Monday night through Friday... Strong but flat upper
level ridging develops across the NE pacific Monday and Tuesday,
resulting in fairly strong zonal flow into the bc wa through midweek.

This may clip our primarily our northern zones with some light rain
at times, mainly late Monday night early Tue and again Wed night.

Areas portland-tillamook northward will likely remain cloudier
through midweek than areas to the south, due to their proximity to
the above-mentioned zonal jet. Therefore areas salem southward have a
better chance of reaching the 70s Tuesday and potentially Wednesday,
though our forecast for Wed is a little cooler due to the potential
for increasing high clouds. Zonal flow begins to buckle Wednesday
night as a deep upper trough begins to develop over western canada,
pushing into the pac NW Thursday and Friday. The 00z ECMWF remains
more amplified less progressive with the late-week upper trough,
keeping the trough axis offshore through Saturday while the 00z gfs
pushes the trough axis onshore by Friday. Either solution would be
chilly for our forecast area, but the placement is important in
determining whether the bulk of associated shower activity remains
over our forecast area or east of the cascades, and whether or not
snow levels will dip low enough to bring the first snow of the season
to many of our ski resorts and cascade passes. weagle

Aviation Expect a mix of conditions to continue through midday
with widespread MVFR CIGS and local ifr stratus in the interior
lowlands. Conditions then becomeVFR between 18-21z, with some
sunbreaks expected this afternoon and evening due to variable mid
and high clouds moving across the region ahead of an approaching
front. This front will bring the return of light rain and ifr
conditions to the coast tonight, with rain and reduced flight
conditions spreading inland during the overnight hours.

Kpdx and approaches... MVFR CIGS will continue through midday.VFR
conditions is then expected through tonight with variable mid and
high clouds. MVFR CIGS under light rain likely after 10z tonight.

64

Marine A transient surface ridge over the waters will shift
inland this evening. A front will move across the waters tonight
and ashore Sunday morning with high pressure building over the
waters Sunday afternoon. Expect small craft advisory conditions
over the northern marine zones ahead of the front. The northern
outer zones should have northwest wind gusting 25 kt into Sunday
evening as high pressure build behind the front. Right now, not
expecting small craft advisory conditions for the central oregon
marine zones but future model runs may increase winds into the
advisory category. The next front for later Monday looks to be a
little weaker than the Sunday front.

Seas will remain in the range of 4 to 6 ft through Saturday evening.

The cold front Sunday will boost seas into the 8 to 10 ft range
through Sunday night. A west to northwest fetch developing in the
northeast pacific will bring building seas to above 10 ft around mid
week.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 3 am to 11 pm pdt Sunday for waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60
nm.

Small craft advisory from 3 am to 1 pm pdt Sunday for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 10
nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 28 mi52 min 68°F1019.9 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 63 mi46 min N 2.9 G 2.9 64°F 67°F1019.3 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 63 mi52 min 62°F1019.9 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR7 mi23 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast66°F55°F70%1019.3 hPa
Pearson Airfield, WA9 mi23 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F52°F55%1019.4 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR11 mi23 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F52°F53%1019.5 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR17 mi23 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F53°F63%1019.4 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR22 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair71°F51°F49%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSPB

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Last 24hrE3E4NE4E3--CalmSW3W3N4N3CalmN3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3W3SW4
1 day agoS4CalmE3CalmW85NW3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N3CalmS4SE4CalmS3S3
2 days agoCalmCalmNE33CalmW4CalmN3N5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW53CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Knapp Landing, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.