Mackinaw City, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mackinaw City, MI

June 17, 2024 12:00 AM EDT (04:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 9:34 PM
Moonrise 4:19 PM   Moonset 1:50 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1005 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

Overnight - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday night - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 170341 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1141 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for additional showers and thunderstorms tonight.

- High heat and humidity Monday through much of the work week.

- Periodic chances of showers and storms this week.

UPDATE
Issued at 954 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Warm/moist return flow continues. A surface warm front is lifting into nw/n central lower MI, with dew points quickly rising into the 60s (in some cases, well into the 60s). So much, much stickier air is moving in. The bulk of precip from earlier today has exited across Lk Huron, though a few trailing cells are still cooking off (especially between Rogers City and the eastern UP).

We are placed between major forcing mechanisms tonight (outside of warm advection). A well-defined MCV is contributing to renewed and strong deep convection in sw lower MI. In addition, we are awaiting additional convection over upper MI and far northern WI, where a strengthening low level jet advects potentially very unstable air northward.

Southern activity should continue to advance ene-ward, heading toward the Thumb. This might eventually scrape by areas south of M-55, in particular Gladwin/Arenac Cos. But the best chance for precip will pass by /just/ to our south.

A few convective cells are trying to get going in far northern WI, just sw of IWD. Do expect coverage to increase somewhat as this translates eastward with time. But the opportunity for this to grow substantially upscale, and have something organized take a run at us from the w...well, at the moment it's hard to see.
CAMs are generally keeping precip coverage more limited than before (along with smaller QPF). Have backed off on pops overnight in eastern upper MI to just a small chance.

Elsewhere, we are becoming warm/moist/unstable enough for an isolated cell to cook off anywhere tonight.

Min temps warm and sticky; near 60/low 60s eastern upper MI, to near 70f/lower 70s in TVC.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Warm, moist advection continues across the Great Lakes early this afternoon, driven by maturing southwest flow between expanding southeast Conus centered subtropical ridging and broad troughing digging into the Intermountain West. Subtle shortwave troughs racing northeast within this deep layer southwest flow kicking off pockets of showers and thunderstorms across the western Great Lakes.

Subtropical ridge/heat dome will continue to expand with time through early this week, delivering a shot of true summertime heat into the Great Lakes region.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Initial focus centers on shower/storm potential, especially through tonight. Attention quicky turns to one of heat Monday.

Details:

Just one downright tricky (and thus low confidence) forecast with regards to convection tonight. Plume of enhanced lapse rates and attendant corridor of elevated instability set to fold across at least the north half of the area tonight, with a well defined mesoscale convective driven vorticity lobe expected to pass across southern Michigan. Moisture profiles only become more impressive with time, with precipitable water values expected to exceed 1.5 inches. Per the northern Michigan usual, uncertainty centers on a trigger mechanism to utilize this convective potential.
Unfortunately, that is where all the unanswered questions remain.
Definitely not seeing any large scale forcing mechanisms to utilize this potential...with best low/mid level convergence on nose of low level jet looking to remain off to our northeast, best mid/upper level jet support remaining off to our west/northwest, and forcing from that MCV remaining off to our south. As previously mentioned, suppose sustained moisture advection north of the partially modified outflow boundary from current shower activity may be that trigger.
Again, where exactly that boundary locks in place and just how much activity forms along and north of it remains a source of high uncertainty. If convection does indeed materialize, moisture rich profiles definitely supports some rather high intensity rainfall rates, with any training of convection supporting some locally heavy rainfall totals. Not completely out of the question for an isolated severe storm, although lack of more defined wind fields through the vertical argues otherwise.

Focus for Monday quickly becomes one of heat. Access to traditional heat reserved for the south is fully realized, with thermal profiles continuing to support widespread highs nearing/exceeding 90 degrees across much of northern lower Michigan...with just slightly cooler readings north of the big bridge and near those big bodies of water.
While not terrible excessive, low level moisture profiles support dewpoints remaining in the 60s...only adding to how warm it will feel. Still have some concern with convective debris clouds, along with the potential for additional moist convection to fire during the afternoon...especially across northeast lower Michigan (where mixed layer cape in excess of 1k J/kg and enhanced low level convergence will reside). Still expecting it to be unpleasantly warm for most, and perhaps dangerously so for those working outdoors or those with no access to home cooling.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Strong upper level high pressure will be centered along the eastern seaboard over the next several days. Northern stream troughing will attempt to knock down heights across the western Great Lakes later in the week into next weekend.

Details:

Strong upper level ridging will be centered along the east coast over the next several days. This ridge will extend westward into the Great Lakes for a majority of the period. This will result in hot and humid conditions through much of the work week. Heat indexes will approach heat advisory criteria at times (100 degrees/3 hours), especially across our southern counties. The area could see occasional "cooling" thunderstorms develop either in the form of convective systems possibly moving around the periphery of the ridge or daytime heating/lake breeze induced. Whether or not this occurs will be difficult to ascertain this far in advance unfortunately so pops will stay in the chance category. As we head deeper into the work week, northern stream energy will attempt to knock down the ridge but guidance varies on the extent/timing of this possibility.
Highs of well into the 80s to the mid 90s (mainly south) are likely through mid-week with highs of at least the upper 70s to upper 80s likely later in the week. Perhaps more noticeable cooling will arrive for next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Warmer and more humid air will continue to press northward into northern MI. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could pop anywhere, but most places will stay dry. Best chance for rain overnight is at CIU. Mostly VFR otherwise, with hot/muggy wx on Monday. Perhaps a stray SHRA/TSRA could also pop in the afternoon and evening.

S to sw winds overspread the area tonight and Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Monday night for MIZ020- 025-026-031.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi43 minE 9.9G11 60°F 59°F29.7660°F
45175 3 mi21 minE 7.8 60°F 1 ft
CYGM4 - Cheybogan, MI 18 mi71 min0G1
SRLM4 33 mi61 minE 14 57°F 53°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi81 minESE 2.9G6 62°F 29.79
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi43 min0G2.9 58°F29.80
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi43 min0G1 59°F 53°F29.8157°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi43 minE 4.1G5.1 59°F 52°F29.8056°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi43 minESE 7G9.9 59°F 29.8157°F


Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMCD MACKINAC ISLAND,MI 8 sm25 minE 0810 smMostly Cloudy59°F59°F100%29.83
KPLN PELLSTON RGNL AIRPORT OF EMMET COUNTY,MI 15 sm66 mincalm10 smOvercast66°F63°F88%29.82
KSLH CHEBOYGAN COUNTY,MI 16 sm25 minSSE 0310 smPartly Cloudy64°F63°F94%29.81
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Wind History graph: MCD
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Gaylord, MI,




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