Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 8:06PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 11:34 AM EDT (15:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1029 Am Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
Today..Light winds. Scattered sprinkles in the late morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Isolated showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202003312230;;357108 FZUS53 KAPX 311429 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1029 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-312230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 311428 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1028 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1013 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

A rather gray and gloomy day across northern Michigan with low level moisture continuing to retrograde west/southwest across the area. With weak boundary layer flow, little change expected over the next 12-24 hours. Upstream vorticity max over Ontario with an uptick in moisture will push into northern Michigan this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings over northeast lower Michigan and parts of eastern upper Michigan show moisture depth near the -10c isotherm. This will result in some sprinkles, patchy drizzle or a light rain shower in these areas (very low QPF). Weak downslope flow over northwest lower Michigan will keep things mainly dry in this area and may bring about at least some thinning in the cloud cover (so things could brighten up a bit in these areas during the afternoon).

Temperatures will struggle today under the clouds. Most areas will spend the day mainly in the 30s, with eventual high temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

. Not a whole lot of change .

High impact weather potential: Will need to be on the lookout for patchy freezing drizzle early this morning, and potentially again tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper level pattern in the process of slowing down/becoming much more "blocky" as stacked low pressure slowly spins across New England . all-the-while additional closed mid level low pivots into western British Columbia. Upper level ridge axis building north between these features across the upper Mississippi Valley, with southern stream shortwave tucking underneath this ridge across the lower Plains. Recycled Atlantic low level moisture plume and vorticity lobes retrograding back west (from that New England low) continue to result in plenty of lower clouds and even some drizzle across our area early this morning.

Upper level regime across our area become increasingly stagnant as blocking pattern matures into the middle of the week. However, still plenty of that low level Atlantic moisture to deal with through tonight, manifesting itself as plenty of lower level clouds and more drizzle potential at times.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and addressing the possibility for a touch of drizzle (freezing?) at times.

Details: Simply, not a whole lot of change in the coming 24 hours as light east and northeast flow through the lower levels not only brings in additional moisture, but also prevents significant mechanical mixing to help mix that moisture out. The result should be plenty of low clouds right through tonight. Bigger question centers around will this moisture becoming just deep enough at times to promote a touch of drizzle. Perusal of some of the hi-res guidance forecast soundings indeed show this possibility, with even their qpf fields showing pockets of very light precip. Fact that drizzle is occurring outside as of this writing definitely lends some credence to this potential, and given stagnant nature of the pattern, gotta believe we will see some more of the same at times today and tonight . especially for areas east of interstate 75 where low level convergence will be maximized. All those clouds and light northeast winds will keep temperatures a bit on the cool side of normal today, with afternoon readings only topping out in the lower and middle 40s. Reverse effect tonight, as those clouds will prevent a significant nocturnal temperature response, with readings ranging within a few degrees either side of freezing. Of course, those temperature trends tonight will have to be monitored closely, with the definite possibility some areas may see a bit of freezing drizzle.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

. Warming with Clouds .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes . The compensating ridging between the two stacked cut off lows one anchored off the Atlantic seaboard and the other in Alberta. Moisture trapped in the lower levels between the two systems looks to possibly keep the patchy drizzle over the region. Although, there are some hints that drier air will try erode the moisture layers. Otherwise, as the 500 mb lows wobble in their respective places, the ridge over the Upper Great Lakes will amplify and warm the region. Wednesday looks to be in the upper 40s, with some locations getting into the lower 50s. Thursday, looks to be in the lower to mid 50s with some locations making a run at 60F, especially if the clouds break up enough to let some more sunshine.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . minimal

Extended (Friday through Monday) . The ridge between the two 500 mb lows will amplify, into what is looking like an Omega block. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMCnh all have a similar look with the cold front on Friday night/Saturday morning. So have Friday (day) dry, and then Friday night into Saturday with chance pops for the cold front. I will say that the cold frontal passage timing has stabilized, but looking at the qpf on the models, am wondering if the line will be much more scattered as it moves through, with even a break over the region. The models are now split on Sunday with the GFS dry for the day and into the evening. The ECMWF clears by Sunday afternoon after a wet start. Sunday night looks dry, but the GFS brings in some rain overnight Sunday/early Monday morning. The ECMWF is slower with this feature.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 628 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

More of the same throughout this taf period with low clouds producing MVFR to IFR conditions. May see some patchy drizzle at times, especially at KAPN. Light winds through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

No significant marine concerns for the next several days as both winds and waves remain below advisory levels. Winds may attempt to increase in speed a bit this weekend as a weakening cold front makes a run into the region. This front will also bring our next chance for any significant rainfall.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JK NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi52 min NNE 6 G 8.9 34°F 34°F1019.8 hPa31°F
SRLM4 33 mi34 min NNE 15 34°F 34°F29°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi54 min NE 8 G 11 35°F 1019.6 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 8 1019.4 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi52 min N 5.1 G 7 35°F 1019.7 hPa29°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi46 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 33°F 34°F1019 hPa32°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi39 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast35°F30°F84%1019.6 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi40 minNE 910.00 miOvercast37°F30°F76%1020.6 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi39 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast36°F30°F83%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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1 day agoE7
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E5CalmCalmW5W7W5W4NW4W5W5W4W5N9N7
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2 days agoE11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.