Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:10PM Thursday February 20, 2020 6:07 PM EST (23:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:13AMMoonset 3:10PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 313 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale warning in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night...
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202002210600;;839567 FZUS53 KAPX 202013 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 313 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-210600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 202011 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 311 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

. Warming Trend Starts Friday .

High impact weather potential: Gusty southwest winds to bring the potential for Lake Michigan gales and more lakeshore flooding on Friday.

Pattern synopsis: Core of coldest temperature anomalies now exiting off to our east as longwave mid level trough axis does the same. Center of sprawling Arctic originated surface high building southeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, with ridging extending northeast across the Great Lakes. Combination of very dry air, exceeding low convective depths, and the beginning stages of elevated warm air advection taking their collective toll on lake processes early this afternoon, with nothing more than shallow lake clouds and a few flurries rotating of the big waters. Plenty of sunshine away from those favored lake effect areas, evidence on how dry the vertical column is. Despite this sun, temperatures continue to run well below normal, with current readings in the teens and lower 20s.

Large scale features expected to go through some significant changes heading through the remainder of this week on into the weekend, with current overhead troughing given way to a much more zonal flavor to the mid and upper level flow regime. Much modified Pacific originated air spreading overhead will be the result, sending temperatures to above normal levels as soon as tomorrow, with even warmer conditions arriving this weekend.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends tonight and Friday.

Details: Expect any lingering lake snows to come to a quick end heading into and through this evening as elevated warm air advection kicks into overdrive. Other than some lingering scattered lake clouds, expect mostly clear skies tonight and Friday. Upstream surface high pressure will continue to build southeast, increasing the overhead pressure gradient between it and low pressure running well to our north across Hudson Bay. This should keep temperatures from plummeting tonight as winds fail to decouple. Still expect temperatures this evening to reach into the single digits across most interior regions, recovering some overnight as southwest winds start to increase.

Mostly sunny skies and gusty southwest winds will usher in a much milder airmass for Friday. Will nudge expected highs a bit toward the warmer end of the statistical guidance spectrum (lower and middle 30s) as despite deep snow cover, mechanical mixing should be significant.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Zonal split flow pattern expected at the start of the short term period Friday night . with the upper Lakes actually along the southern fringes of the northern branch jet. Weak short wave trough in this northern branch jet will slide by to the north of Lake Superior Friday afternoon/night . and a second ripple will follow the same track Sunday. Southern branch dominated by closed low off the southern California coast . the remnants of which expected to move into the central/southern Plains by Sunday.

Expansive surface high centered over the Midwest this afternoon (1047mb) will sink into the southeastern states by Saturday . with warm advection around the north side of this anticyclone into the Great Lakes. So the trend of moderating temperatures will continue into the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Synoptically not much in the way of forecast concerns through Sunday . but some small scale issues may be more of a nuisance. Cloud cover Saturday may be one of those issues . with some signals of boundary layer moistening beneath a strengthening and lowering inversion. Which would be problematic for Saturday's temperature forecast is some areas end up getting stuck beneath a trapped stratus/stratocumulus layer. Another concern especially Friday night/early Saturday morning is will there be enough depth and lift within this developing moist layer to generate freezing drizzle. Not planning on going there just yet . but we may end up need to add this in later at least. for northwest Lower Question for Saturday then becomes. if we do stratus in . can we mix it out during the day? Guidance tends to struggle in these situations keeping the boundary layer too cold over a snow covered surface and thus keeping moisture trapped . so will keep clouds in during the morning and allow for some more sun to mix in during the afternoon. As a result will have forecast highs Saturday well into the 30s with some spots in northern Lower climbing at or above 40 degrees. Thinking more widespread 40s are in the cards across northern Lower for Sunday.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Potential for accumulating snowfall increases in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

Split flow pattern continues into early next week with initial forecast concerns centered on how close southern branch upper low remnants get to the upper Great Lakes. This wave will get kicked northeast and weaken Monday as new energy dives into the desert southwest/southern Plains by Tuesday . as overall pattern becomes much more amplified. Willing to bring some PoPs into northern Lower starting Monday but will keep areas above the bridge dry for now. This more amplified pattern looks to be an active one by midweek as new southern Plains short wave trough/ closed low gets kicked northeast during midweek . with the potential for a significant system impacting the Great Lakes. This expected to be followed by a dump of colder air during the latter half of the week. Will consider starting to message the midweek system for the potential for accumulating synoptic snow followed by lake effect snow showers . through 20/12z ECMWF is less bullish on this idea than the same GFS run.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Any lingering MVFR producing lake clouds and light snow showers expected to come to an end later this afternoon evening. Mainly clear skies expected thereafter, with VFR conditions. Winds become southwest tonight and Friday, becoming quite gusty Friday morning.

MARINE. Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Increasing pressure gradient between high pressure sliding to our south and low pressure well to our north will result in increasingly gusty southwest winds tonight through Friday. Small craft advisory winds develop tonight on all waters, with gale force wind gusts likely on northern Lake Michigan Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . GALE WARNING from noon Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ346>349. LM . GALE WARNING from noon Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JPB LONG TERM . JPB AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi55 min W 11 G 17 18°F 33°F1032.5 hPa6°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi87 min SW 11 G 18 20°F 1031.5 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi55 min WSW 7 G 11 1031.2 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi55 min WSW 8.9 G 15 20°F 1030.7 hPa5°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi49 min WSW 8.9 G 16 18°F 35°F1031.3 hPa7°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi55 min W 6 G 8.9 18°F 1030.4 hPa6°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW13
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1 day
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W13
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G18
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G17
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G22
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G34
W19
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W23
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W23
G30
W18
G28
W14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi71 minWSW 10 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy18°F8°F68%1032.5 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi73 minW 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast19°F8°F62%1035.1 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi71 minW 11 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy19°F7°F60%1032.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
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----NW7N6N5N4N5CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW7
G17
W13W13
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W13
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1 day agoW19
G26
W15
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W15
G25
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G26
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NW8NW10
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W10W13
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2 days agoSE10
G15
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G16
SE9E6E9E8E10
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NE8--W8W12
G18
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G24
W17
G27
W24
G34
W21
G31
W22
G32
W20
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W17
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.