Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mackinaw City, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Pattern/synopsis: Cold front is progressing thru ne lower MI early this morning, and will exit to the se over the next few hours. Low level moisture is extensive behind the front, with stratus and areas of drizzle/very light rain.

Forecast: Moisture will shallow out today, but not as quickly as earlier progged. Guidance if anything looks excessively pessimistic in improving cloud cover today. Some drizzle could linger past 8am, but overall coverage of light precip will decrease in the pre-dawn and after-dawn hours. That gives way to rising stratus deck, which should start to mix out as we move thru the afternoon. Most emphatic clearing will wait until evening, with mostly clear skies overnight. With mixing today looking to be somewhat limited, and winds going light tonight, patchy to areas of fog are expected overnight (especially in eastern upper MI).

Max temps today in the 40s to mid 50s. Lows tonight in the 20s to around 30f.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Next system will be developing in the Plains come Easter Sunday, with lingering influence of surface high pressure continuing the sunshine trend with highs well into the 50s. Clouds do increase in the afternoon hours as the outer reaches of the system work closer, but any precipitation chances will hold until later Sunday night as rain showers spread from southwest to northeast. At this time, elevated instability looks meager at best, so while a downpour or two is possible later Sunday night, widespread thunder is not anticipated at this juncture. Surface low pressure passes through Wisconsin early Monday, which will keep the rain trend flowing until the surface low departs to our north and west later in the day into Monday night. Ordinarily, this would be a favorable severe setup based off frontal position and surface low track, but given the late night / early morning passage (limiting instability), that threat is moot for the time being as highs get stuck in the 50s and perhaps low 60s. Overall, best QPF will remain west across the western and central Yoop into northern Wisconsin... with decreasing rainfall as one heads east. Current rainfall from this system ranges from 0.30- 0.50" west of US 131 (west of I-75 in the eastern Yoop) to 0.25" or less near Lake Huron. Unimpactful overall, but helpful to keep pre- greenup fire danger at bay (temporarily). Drier and cooler air builds Tuesday... highs in the 40s and 50s.

Warming trend anticipated to close out the forecast period, with occasional rain chances as some waves progress through the region.
In particular, a more pronounced wave may deliver a shot of warmth on Thursday... well into the 60s and perhaps even mid 70s if we can hold off on the cloud cover, but with uncertainty looming around that forecast 5 days out, will keep temperatures more reserved into the upper 50s to mid 60s to close out the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

IFR cigs and accompanying showers with some embedded thunderstorms expected to spread across the taf sites this evening into the early overnight. Some storms may produce brief heavy rains and small hail. Slow improvement expected very late tonight into Saturday morning. Cigs expected to rise to VFR as we head through Saturday afternoon. Light winds become gusty out of the northwest later tonight and Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.