Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:31PM Saturday July 11, 2020 10:27 PM EDT (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:37AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 713 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Overnight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the evening. Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202007120715;;700482 FZUS53 KAPX 112313 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 713 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-120715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 120048 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 848 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 848 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Remaining diurnal CU has mostly dissipated with loss of diurnal heating/instability as the sun sets on this beautiful mid July Saturday in Northern Michigan Meanwhile. upper level trough axis and weak surface response remain draped across Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula. Associated cloud cover remains largely behind the surface boundary . with no evidence of any resulting precip as of yet. These features will drop SE into our CWA very late tonight and Sunday . bringing with it a broken deck of VFR low clouds and very small chances of sprinkles/light rain showers. No instability to speak of late tonight or on Sunday . so no thunder expected Temps are falling thru the 70s attm. on their way down to overnight lows in the 50s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Sunday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

High impact weather potential: None

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Shower (tstm?) chances on Sunday.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Broad troughiness across the Great Lakes with several embedded weak shortwaves. Limited moisture within the more dominate northern flow as the heat dome builds through the Plains and the inter-mountain west. Cold front positioned near the northern parts of Lake Superior will push across the area tonight bringing an increase in mid level cloudiness. Very little in the way of forcing associated with the front and moisture depth is limited. Certainly can't rule out a few sprinkles with fropa and will include in the forecast for later tonight. Lows tonight mainly in the 50s.

Additional shortwave energy rotates across the area on Sunday as the cold front exits south/east. An isolated shower is possible over northeast lower during the morning along the tail end of departing frontal boundary. But more showers (thunder?) will be possible during the afternoon as inland penetrating lake breeze boundaries from Lake Huron interact with residual low level moisture and a weakly unstable atmosphere (200-300 j/kg). Will not include any thunder given the anemic CAPE values. Temperatures will be a bit cooler for most areas on Sunday (given more cloud cover). Highs will generally be in the lower to middle 70s (a few areas toward Saginaw Bay will be closer to 80).

SHORT TERM. (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Sunday night, broad mid-upper level troughing is expected to be shifting eastward as heights begin to rise locally. Upstream ridging expected to become centered overhead during the day Tuesday, along with attendant sfc high pressure sagging in from the north aiding to bring more sun than clouds and primarily dry conditions through the forecast period, along with a return to above normal temperatures. Attention just beyond the forecast period revolves around an approaching cold front Tuesday evening into early Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends. Low PoPs Monday afternoon across parts of northeast lower?

By Sunday evening, any diurnally driven shower/storm activity near Saginaw Bay should be waning in coverage and intensity . fading entirely toward sunset with mainly clear skies prevailing area-wide and lows falling into the 50s for most (low 60s near the lakes).

Little in the way of sensible weather expected Monday through the daytime hours Tuesday as aforementioned sfc high pressure gradually sags into the region from the north and mid-upper level ridging fold in from the west. Increasing daytime high temperatures under mostly sunny skies will be the rule (some daytime fair weather cu mixed in as well). Suppose the only possible blemish through Monday could once again be across parts of northeast lower if we're able to muster enough moisture/instability to pop an isolated shower/storm along afternoon inland penetrating lake breezes. Think the likelihood of this is pretty low and have opted to keep the dry forecast going through this time frame. High temperatures Monday expected to be a handful of degrees warmer than Sunday . ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s.

Similar conditions anticipated for much of Tuesday with high temps warming up several more degrees - varying through the 80s area-wide. Latest trends suggest mid-high cloud will be on the increase from west to east late in the day as a thunderstorm complex slides across Wisconsin ahead of/along an approaching cold front that's progged to cross northern Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday. Will keep the daytime hours of Tuesday dry area-wide before precip chances increase Tuesday evening and overnight.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

High impact weather potential: Scattered thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening through early Wednesday, perhaps including a low threat of gusty winds.

As was alluded to above, an elongated cold front tied to low pressure over northern Manitoba is progged to cross northern Michigan Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Despite an expected weakening trend to upstream convection on its approach toward the forecast area Tuesday evening, can't entirely rule out a low end chance for some gusty winds given a weakly unstable airmass progged out ahead of the front and deep layer bulk shear values approaching 40 kts. Will continue to monitor this threat over the next few days given lots of mesoscale uncertainties at this time, and upstream convective development/evolution likely having a big role in precip/ thunderstorm chances locally.

Beyond this, confidence really diminishes with respect to overall pattern evolution and attendant precip chances. Gut feeling is that high pressure will settle in behind the front, likely providing a mainly dry end to the week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

An upper level trough and surface reflection will drop SE thru Lower Michigan late tonight and Sunday. Overall conditions will remain dry despite the passage of this system . but some sprinkles or few light showers are possible late tonight and Sunday. The main impact of this system will be an increase in low clouds . but prevailing conditions will remain VFR thru the entire 24 hour forecast period. N/NW winds AOB 10 kts tonight will increase to 10 to 20 kts on Sunday.

MARINE. Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Weak front drops into the region tonight and may bring a few sprinkles or a light shower after midnight. Gusty northwest winds will gradually subside this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Lighter north/northwest winds overnight. More clouds on Sunday and cooler temperatures. Still some occasionally gusty winds on Sunday from the north/northwest - Gustier winds mainly on Lake Michigan(versus Lake Huron today).

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ345-346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . MR MARINE . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi58 min NNW 8 G 14 69°F 72°F1008.9 hPa57°F
45175 3 mi29 min NW 12 G 16 68°F 70°F1009 hPa57°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi48 min NNW 8.9 G 13 65°F 1009.1 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi58 min WNW 8.9 G 13 68°F1007.5 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi58 min NW 12 G 18 65°F 58°F1007.7 hPa56°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi58 min NW 8.9 G 15 65°F 64°F1007.5 hPa59°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi58 min WNW 8 G 17 65°F 1008.7 hPa58°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi33 minNNW 610.00 miFair64°F55°F74%1009.1 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi34 minNNW 710.00 miFair67°F55°F68%1009.2 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi33 minNW 10 G 1610.00 miFair66°F56°F70%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmSE6S5SE5S5S9W4NE4E5E4E3E6NW3NW5N10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.