Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 6:40PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:26 AM EDT (13:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:14PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 845 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201910222045;;098388 FZUS53 KAPX 221245 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 845 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-222045-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221033
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
633 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 331 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Windy and showery...

high impact weather potential: lakeshore flooding beach erosion
concerns continue through Wednesday, mainly on lake michigan.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a vertically stacked low pressure is situated over northern
wisconsin with broad cyclonic flow across the midwest and great
lakes region. This system will continue its northward progression
into ontario through Wednesday. Continued gusty winds will pose
the greatest impact in terms of more lakeshore flooding and beach
erosion concerns on lake michigan. Cold air advection will usher
in cooler air today across northern michigan as the low pressure
continues its northward progression into ontario. H8 temps falling
to around -2c by this evening overnight, leading to increased lake
induced instability, which combined with deeper moisture rotating
through the back side of the system should be plenty of support to
produce additional showers through much of the remainder of the
day into tonight and possibly into Wednesday morning (most
numerous will be downwind of lake michigan superior in west-
southwest flow). Continued showers downwind of the lakes early
Wednesday should gradually give way to drier conditions as weak
warm air advection slowly takes over. High temperatures will range
from the upper 40s to low 50s area-wide, although with
cloudy rainy windy conditions, will likely feel several degrees
cooler than that, while overnight temperatures will drop into the
upper 30s to low 40s.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 331 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Winds diminish Wednesday lake effect precipitation through
Thursday...

high impact weather potential... Do we get scattered slick spots
Thursday night Friday morning? Very low chance.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Current storm system by Wednesday
morning (12z wed) has moved to just west of james bay. The system,
itself, has begun the filling process as the low has become
vertically stacked. However, there are sfc and upper level troughs
that are rotating around the low that help to "funnel" energy over
the upper great lakes region through the next 48 hours. Model agree
with the overall precipitation pattern the rain or rain snow is
mainly over upper michigan (especially E upper) through the day on
Wednesday with lake effect rain over N lower. Wednesday evening, a
decent amount of energy (a jet streak (70+kts) at 500 mb) rotates
into the base of the 500 mb trough and begins to help sharpen the
trough with the sfc trough also beginning to sharpen the baroclinic
zone near the sfc. This begins to enhance the le precipitation as
the jet streak moves east. Thursday morning, while the upper level
system is beginning to lift out, the sfc trough and 850 mb
temperatures (around-5c) continues to produce le precipitation
(probably rain or rain snow mix in the highlands) until the mid and
lower level moisture begins to dry out, and the sfc and 850 mb ridge
axis moves through the region. This would seem to limit or stop the
le precipitation, but am unsure about this some of the models are
showing that some precipitation is possible into Friday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... At this point, the winds are the main
concern for Wednesday morning, but as the system moves to the east,
the gradient relaxes and we should see the winds diminish by the
afternoon. On the great lakes, it would seem that we should have
fallen to small craft criteria.

After that the main concern is the chance for the le precipitation
to hang on. Some of the markers are there, namely the ridge axis in
the 1000-850 mb flow. Moisture is around 40 to 50% in the 850-700 mb
layer, and the delta t is around 18 to 19c. So with the moisture on
the edge, and the ridge axis isn't very sharp (it looks somewhat
flat), the delta t may be the deciding factor. The amount of
precipitation would be light with the lack of moisture. However, the
next concern is do we get some icy conditions on back roads with
the light, wet precipitation and low temperatures around 30f? Sfc
soil temperatures are in the upper 40s. So think that the likelihood
is low, but not zero.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 331 am edt Tue oct 22 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Extended (Friday through Monday)... The dry air continues to move
into the region and the high takes over and the precipitation looks
to cease by Friday evening and things remain dry through Sunday
morning. Sunday afternoon, the ECMWF has a sfc low that moves right
over the forecast area, by Sunday evening. While the GFS has a weak
cold front shortwave trough move through. If the ECMWF is right we
will get a decent storm on Sunday. Another shortwave looks to rotate
into the region on Monday night. We'll see. Not particularly
enthused by the ECMWF idea. However, the models are hinting at
pattern change as the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks have been
showing the last couple of days.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 628 am edt Tue oct 22 2019
strong area of low pressure is moving slowly nne along northern
wisconsin. It will continue slowly NE toward and across lake
superior thru late today, then accelerate northward and weaken.

Showers will start to return to NW lower mi toward dawn, leading
to a gloomy, cool, and windy Tuesday. After a period ofVFR cigs
last night and early this morning, MVFR CIGS will gradually
return throughout the day.

Very gusty S to SW winds today and will last throughout the taf
period and beyond.

Marine
Issued at 331 am edt Tue oct 22 2019
gale force wind gusts will continue to impact the lakes through
tonight before winds waves begin to subside during the overnight
hours and into Wednesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for miz020-098.

Lakeshore flood warning until 8 am edt Wednesday for miz025-031.

Lakeshore flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for miz088-
095-096.

Lakeshore flood advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Wednesday for miz016.

Lh... Gale warning until 5 am edt Wednesday for lhz346>349.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for lhz345.

Lm... Lakeshore flood warning until 8 am edt Wednesday for lmz346.

Gale warning until 5 am edt Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Gale warning until 7 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Near term... Tl
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Tl
marine... Tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi57 min SSE 11 G 14 48°F 53°F995.3 hPa
45175 3 mi28 min ENE 19 G 21 50°F 53°F1 ft996 hPa44°F
WSLM4 20 mi87 min NW 4.1 50°F 53°F995 hPa (-2.0)41°F
SRLM4 33 mi57 min SE 24 50°F 51°F42°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi47 min S 27 G 31 52°F 992.6 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi57 min SE 12 G 17 51°F996.2 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi57 min SSE 8.9 G 15 49°F 54°F995.7 hPa44°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi57 min S 21 G 25 51°F 52°F996.4 hPa46°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi57 min ESE 9.9 G 15 48°F 995 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi52 minSSE 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast50°F43°F79%995.6 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi33 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast47°F42°F83%995.3 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi51 minSE 9 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F41°F86%995.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12
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1 day agoSW3W8W8W10
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W12W11W5W6W4SW5W4NW3N3E5E6SE5SE6SE6E7E8E7E8
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2 days agoSE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.