Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:10AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday December 12, 2019 1:19 PM EST (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 5:31PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 430 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the late morning. Chance of snow early in the morning, then snow in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Snow, chance of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers, drizzle, snow showers and freezing drizzle. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201912121730;;230565 FZUS53 KAPX 120930 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 430 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-121730-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 121747 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1247 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1144 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Forecast Update: Surface low tracks from northwest Iowa this morning northeast toward a 4-5mb/3h pressure fall center over central Wisconsin . arriving this afternoon. Low center then drifts into Michigan this evening but will be slowly filling as upper level support gets stripped away to the northeast. Warm front also lifts north across the Lower Peninsula today . and eventually stalls across eastern Upper tonight as pressure gradient flattens out.

Snow is expected to be persistent across eastern Upper and Straits region this afternoon . which of course where the overall better QPF will be especially with low level frontogenesis axis setting up across Upper Michigan this afternoon . while much of northern Lower will see a lull in the precipitation for several hours before snow across northern Wisconsin associated with stronger dynamics and on the nose of better moisture advection spreads into northwest Lower later this afternoon . though as low levels warm with warm front passage could be some mixing with rain along the northwest Lower shoreline south of Little Traverse Bay. Current thinking on snowfall amounts for the daytime hours will be 4 to 8 inches from east to west across eastern Upper . and less than three inches across northern Lower north of M-72 which includes what has probably already fallen. Will deal with the freezing drizzle potential for the overnight hours this afternoon as moisture in the ice nucleating levels is depleted.

UPDATE Issued at 1011 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Morning Synopsis: 14z surface/composite analysis shows 1016mb surface low over northwest Iowa . with a warm front extending east into far southeast Minnesota/southern Wisconsin/far southern Lower Michigan. Attending well-defined short wave trough spinning over southern Minnesota per water vapor imagery . with forcing aided by exit region of a 140kt jet streak over northeast Ontario/southern Quebec. Strong low/mid level southwesterly warm advection from the upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes . not a ton of moisture in the absolute sense as high pressure over the mid-Atlantic ridging back into southeast Texas cutting off return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. But there is an axis of half-inch plus precipitable water values feeding northeast across the warm front . along/ahead of a 60kt low level jet over northwest Missouri/southeast Iowa. Widespread area of snow from far eastern Minnesota across much of Wisconsin/Upper and northern Lower Michigan. Initial snow across northern Lower has been pushing north with some dry air advection into central/southern Lower Michigan..especially evident on 12z DTX sounding with a nice wedge of dry air below 800mb . so it looks like there will be a lull in the precipitation across a good bit of northern Lower heading into the afternoon.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

. More significant snow for parts of the area today .

High impact weather potential: Widespread accumulating snow producing significant travel impacts, especially across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern upper Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Progressive northern stream flow continues, with steady height rises taking place overhead as deep trough responsible for shot of Arctic air is rapidly moving east into Quebec and New England. Off the deck thermal profiles have warmed considerably since this time yesterday, as evident by H8 level temperatures almost increasing by 10C. Per the usual with these dense cold airmasses, surface response to this warming is delayed, with current temperatures once again in the single digits and teens. Combination of those warming temperatures aloft and increasingly shallow convective depths has definitely disrupted the lake processes, with just shallow clouds and a few lingering flurries found across the area.

Break in our active weather sure won't last long, with water vapor imagery displaying sharp shortwave trough digging rapidly southeast across the Dakota's, with an expanding area of light to moderate snow along and just ahead of this wave. This "clipper" system will race east into and through the area later this afternoon and evening, bringing that widespread snow along with it.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Snow amounts and attendant headlines into this evening.

Details: Expect snow to rapidly spread into the area this morning, with the juxtaposition of deeper moisture and forcing from the approaching wave favoring the steadiest snows across the Tip of the Mitt counties and across eastern upper Michigan by later this morning through the afternoon. Overspreading of this deeper moisture across a still favorable over-water thermal gradient will likely ignite at least some lake response across northern Lake Michigan this morning. Hi-res guidance concurs, showing hints of at least some lake snows spreading north into the Straits and eastern upper Michigan. Not expecting this to be too big a deal given transient nature of any banding and shallow convective depths. Strong indication that a dry wedge centered just off the deck will spread northeast quickly this morning, ending the widespread snow threat across a portion of northern lower Michigan (especially south of M- 72), with chances for snow once again increasing later this afternoon as dry slot is lost (perhaps with a bit of a lake component into northwest lower Michigan). As for snowfall totals, good deep moisture and strong omega centered in an elevated/deep dendritic growth layer both support some decent totals across the north half of the area, likely ranging from 4 to 8 inches, with the greatest amounts along and north of the M-68 corridor . warranting a winter weather advisory for that area. Given that expected dry slot, expect snow totals to drop off fairly rapidly as one goes south, with likely just trace amounts down near Saginaw Bay. As for temperatures, development of south and southeast winds will definitely usher in a milder airmass, with much of the area ranging from the middle 20s to lower 30s by later this afternoon, with even slightly warmer readings in our far southwest and southeast counties.

Kinda an interesting and challenging forecast heading through tonight as forcing departs and moisture thins from top to bottom in the column. May see light snow/flurries transition freezing drizzle as ice nucleation is lost. To complicate matters, while inversion level temperatures become too warm for ice nucleation, they may be just cold enough to entice some lake moisture contribution into northwest lower Michigan . further moistening the low level environment in support for drizzle. Definitely something to monitor as we head into the evening hours. Otherwise, a downright mild night when compared to recent conditions, with temperatures remaining steady-state or even slowly rising into the 20s and lower 30s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Fairly Quiet Friday, more light Lake Effect late Saturday .

Synopsis/Forecast: Friday morning the weak clipper from Thursday will be filling in and weakening over northern Michigan. The decaying low will still influence our wind field though, as we hang on to light southerly winds. Also through the morning a subtle wave traversing the Rockies will spin up yet another weak compact low through the Central Plains before moving into the Ohio Valley. Overall, relatively little sensible weather over the area through mid-day thanks to a lack of forcing or moisture. As the fetch increases across the big lakes maybe some light flurries and/or freezing drizzle will get pushed into ern upper. Forecast soundings show little to no ice nucleation. A lot of these slight chance pops also depends on the exact position of the decaying surface low. Better snow chances slowly return Friday night as profiles saturate top down, allowing seeder-feeder processes to take over, especially in ern upper. Friday's highs are expected to be a couple degrees above normal.

Northwest flow kicks in Saturday with cold low-mid level air pouring into the region. The low pressure system crossing the Ohio Valley gets absorbed into an intensifying nor'easter. Increasing overlake instability late Saturday will bring more chances for lake effect as the day wears on. Slightly milder temperatures will continue Saturday before a return to colder conditions comes later in the weekend. Between the nor'easter and incoming high pressure, our winds will get increasingly breezy late Saturday evening and overnight.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal

Sunday into the beginning of the week bring multiple waves passing by, mainly to our north, that will each bring increased chances for lake effect. This mainly targets northwest flow belts on Sunday, then fans out some with a general decrease in likelihood as surface high pressure moves in Monday. There remains potential for a strong system to ride up through the Ohio Valley late Monday night into Tuesday. this could bring gusty winds and another round of synoptic snow, but confidence in this is very low at this point. The general pattern heading into midweek is more of the same as on the weekend: northwest flow with rounds of light lake effect possible. The extended period will run a couple degrees below normal.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

MVFR conditions at mbL/TVC will give way to deteriorating condtions after 22z as precipitation moves in from the west . starting as snow but may mix/change to rain and eventually drizzle tonight at mbL . at TVC precipitation more likely to go from snow to drizzle (assuming surface temperatures nudge above freezing this evening). LIFR conditions at PLN may lift briefly to VFR in the 19z-21z time frame but are expected to deteriorate to IFR once again after 21-22z in snow. Snow will eventually taper to drizzle/freezing drizzle later this evening. Low level wind shear will be an issue through much of tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Another round of gusty winds, this time from the south and southeast, will bring small craft advisory conditions for many of our nearshore waters today into this evening. Well deserved break in the recent gusty winds looks to begin later tonight, lasting into the first half of the weekend.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ016>018- 086>088-097>099. WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ095-096. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LHZ348-349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ346-347. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341-342. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JPB NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi50 min SSE 11 G 13 20°F 34°F1026.3 hPa19°F
WSLM4 20 mi80 min SW 2.9 21°F 1026.4 hPa (-3.3)19°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi40 min E 12 G 16 21°F 1024 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi50 min E 5.1 G 8 1026.9 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi50 min E 2.9 G 7 21°F 1026.5 hPa17°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi50 min S 15 G 17 22°F 37°F1026.7 hPa21°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi50 min ESE 8 G 9.9 19°F 1026.2 hPa16°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi25 minSSE 9 G 140.50 miSnow22°F19°F92%1025.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi26 minESE 75.00 miFog/Mist19°F15°F84%1027.2 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi44 minSE 60.75 miLight Snow18°F15°F89%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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W6NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmS3S5S5S9
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1 day agoSW4CalmCalmW6W12
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2 days agoNE15NE13NE10NE6N7N9
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NW7N5NE6N5N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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