Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 10:53 AM   Moonset 1:44 AM

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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 306 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Today - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming variable 10 knots or less, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the evening. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 140704 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 304 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost potential tonight and again Wednesday night.

- Rain returns late Thursday Night into Friday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Southern stream mid-upper level wave currently over MO supporting an attendant area of surface low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley. This cyclone treks by to the south over the next 24 hours -- situated over the Ohio Valley by 12z Wednesday. Surface boundary currently over southern Michigan will follow suit...slowly sagging to the south through the day ahead. Surface high pressure builds across Hudson Bay and northern Ontario, nosing into the northern Great Lakes through the duration of the short term forecast period.

Forecast Details: A seasonably chilly start across northern Michigan this morning with lingering light rain showers near and south of M- 55. Clear skies over the northern half of the forecast area correlating with the coolest temperatures. Mostly sunny skies anticipated for the day ahead with clearing continuing to slowly progress from north to south. That said, smoke-allowing hi-res guidance suggests wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires may present itself again today with some haziness (although in less concentration than yesterday). High temperatures this afternoon ranging from the mid-60s to low 70s for many interior areas with cooler readings anticipated at the lakeshores.

Mostly clear skies and light winds expected tonight aiding to promote decent radiational cooling conditions. Lows expected to fall to the mid-upper 30s across the typical interior cold spots with lower 40s more common near the coasts. Some patchy frost not out of the question in the coldest spots.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Flow aloft over the Great Lakes remains weakly northwesterly...with PV strand slipping by...aiding in shunting a cold front south of the area, into southern Lower MI. Cold front extends from this southwestward into IA and MO, where it meets a couple surface lows beneath a pesky upper low, and then drapes back into the central Plains. Best moisture remains along and south of this front, and especially along the Gulf Coast where another bit of energy is keeping things active
Upstream
troughing over the western US, with a shortwave and attendant surface reflection over Alberta/MT/ID...and a bit of shortwave ridging ahead of this over Manitoba, with a 1020mb surface high centered over northern Manitoba as a result.

Expecting upstream ridge axis to slip into the vicinity today into Wednesday...with quieter weather in response
However
niblet out over the Intermountain West attm should try to slip into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes going into Thursday and Friday. This should bring the next shot of rain chances into the area Thursday, though it could be a bit of a drawn out situation, perhaps not all that dissimilar to the last couple days, with a northern stream trough axis slipping in while another niblet churns across the central/southern US. Beyond Friday, however, still a great deal of uncertainty in how the upper level pattern will pan out, particularly in how deep and progressive upstream troughing ends up.
While there should still be some shot at periods of unsettled weather, this uncertainty in the pattern also makes the weekend fairly unclear attm...as it could mean the difference between more or less of Saturday being pleasant/warm. Even less confidence in the start of next week, depending on how quickly ridging builds across the eastern US. If this ends up being slower, not out of the question we could be looking at frost concerns for the end of the weekend/early next week...but will hold off on nailing anything down till there is better confidence in the situation. Stay tuned.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Patchy Frost potential Wednesday Night...High pressure should be a little better situated for us to see a better setup for frost Wednesday night. Signals are improving for decoupling winds overnight...and think it will be drier and clearer than currently anticipated given generally easterly flow. (Have trended dewpoints down for Wednesday/night, though have not gone as aggressive as possible, particularly since we are in greenup now and there's a little better shot for evapotranspiration.) For now...have temps in the mid 30s over the usual cold spots (i.e., Grayling down toward Cadillac)...and will leave further tweaking to future shifts as we get closer.

Rain Returns late Thursday Night into Friday...aforementioned dry conditions on tap for Wednesday (and likely into Thursday) should also nibble away at the leading edge of the moisture shield Thursday...particularly noting signals for the mid-levels (around 700mb-ish) to remain rather dry. Have gone ahead and slowed this in the forecast...though it appears we start to get enough top down saturation and forcing to start getting rain to the surface by late afternoon/evening from west to east. Guidance soundings suggest lower stability overall aloft, which, combined with pwats ramping up toward an inch or better, could lead to some better rainfall totals by Friday morning...especially with the potential for some weak elevated instability that could produce a little thunder (or at least, embedded convective elements). Do have to wonder if some portion of the area will end up fairly wet (perhaps 24-hr totals around an inch?) Friday into Friday night as there's some potential for the system to be a bit slow moving, which could allow rain to fall over largely the same areas for a while. Probabilities for this idea are low attm (greater confidence in closer to a quarter inch or so)...but not zero, so think this could be worth keeping half an eye on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1058 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR aviation weather condtions expected across the northern Michigan terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Northerly winds generally AOB 10 kts are expected for most of the period.
Some patchy fog is possible overnight tonight, most likely at KCIU, which may briefly reduce conditions to MVFR.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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