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FXUS65 KBYZ 110721 AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1221 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

DISCUSSION
Today through Tuesday...

With the pressure gradient over south-central MT continuing to weaken, winds along the foothills west of Billings continue to decrease as well, with only a 15% chance for the Livingston-Big Timber vicinities to see gusts reach 50 mph through 8 AM.

Today will see a weak cold front pass through the area late this morning into the afternoon. THis frontal passage will shift winds to the north and east, bringing about a shallow level of upslope flow into the foothills of the Beartooth and Crazy mountains.
Enough moisture will be present alongside this weak ascent to produce light snow, mainly for south-central MT through the day (though many areas will be a rain/snow mix at times). Most areas have a 60-80% chance to see less than half an inch of snow. The only areas excluded from this is the foothills from Red Lodge through Fishtail, and the east side of the Crazies around Melville, who have a 40-60% chance to get over an inch of snow (but essentially a less than 5% chance to get over 2"). Snow will linger in those foothill locations into the evening, then all snow will taper off by late tonight.

Outside of a chilly morning (temperatures in the teens and upper single digits in far eastern MT), Tuesday is fairly unremarkable, with thos temperatures climbing back to near-normal values (upper 30s to low 40s), no strong winds, and no precip potential.

Vertz

Tuesday Night through Sunday...

The weather pattern as we move through mid December couldn't be quieter. Strong western CONUS ridge will bring persistent warmer than normal temperatures, downslope winds and dry conditions. In fact, EC ensemble pwats are shown to be 0.20" or less through the entire period. There are a couple very weak shortwaves rounding the ridge
one Thursday and the other Saturday night
but these look quite dry. The only potential impacts from waves skirting across southern Canada would be to increase our foothills winds pre-frontally, and perhaps bring modest backdoor cooling post- frontally. Tonight's 00z model runs suggest Saturday may be a day to watch for foothills wind but recent ensembles do not show a strong wind signal here. If there is a warm/dry/windy day in our future (perhaps Saturday) this would elevate grass fire concerns.
Temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will run 10-20 degrees above normal. Look for highs anywhere from the 40s to mid 50s.
Temps could push 60F Saturday.

Here are a few notable probabilities: -Livingston 50+ mph gusts Wed night: 60% -Livingston 50+ mph gusts Fri night to Sat: 60% -Livingston 60+ mph gusts Fri night to Sat: 25% -Sat high temps of 50+ degrees (lower elevations): 60-80% -Sat high temps of 60+ degrees (lower elevations): 10-20%

Looking for winter to return? Not going to happen anytime soon. In fact, confidence is growing that we are looking at a warm/brown Christmas this year (not a guarantee of course, but it's the smart bet right now). A strong and extensive zonal jet is expected to persist across the Pacific as we move to the 2nd half of December.
This would keep the cold in Siberia/AK while western North America is mild.

JKL

AVIATION

Winds will continue to slowly decrease at KLVM through this morning. A cold front will shift winds to the north and east late this morning through the early afternoon, and bring about lower ceilings (but still only a 15% chance for ceiling to drop below 1000 ft) and a small chance for a light rain/snow mix. Precip potential will taper off through the evening. Vertz

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 036 025/043 027/047 030/049 027/046 033/054 029/051 5/O 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U LVM 035 023/042 022/047 025/047 026/048 033/052 030/051 5/O 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U HDN 039 022/042 021/047 021/050 022/047 025/054 024/051 5/O 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U MLS 036 018/038 020/044 022/046 022/043 025/051 024/045 3/O 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 4BQ 037 020/043 022/046 026/049 024/045 028/054 028/049 2/O 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U BHK 032 008/036 017/044 022/045 018/040 021/048 020/044 2/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U SHR 037 020/041 019/047 022/052 022/049 026/058 026/053 2/O 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.

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