Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Park City, MT
May 19, 2024 1:42 PM MDT (19:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 4:02 PM Moonset 2:50 AM |
FXUS65 KBYZ 190836 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 236 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
DISCUSSION
Through Tuesday night...
A couple of disturbances will impact portions of the forecast area over the next 72 hours. The first is already here and will impact mainly the western mountains and foothills Today before lifting northeast of the area tonight. The second better organized system will take a more southerly track across central Wyoming and impact western and then southern sections of the forecast area. This second system has more energy/dynamics associated with it with the potential to bring more significant precipitation to the southern mountains and foothills. Heavy snow is a possibility for the higher elevations of the Beartooth/Absaroka and Bighorn mountains from Monday through Tuesday.
Today...A broad open trof that has sagged southward over the PacNW over the past 24 hours will move across W MT this morning and then lift northeast into NE MT/NW NoDak this evening. Good QG/Jet forcing will reside over the western third of the forecast area this morning, diminishing as the trof fills and moves northeast this afternoon/evening. North to northwest winds will enhance lift along the north facing slopes of the Beartooth front today, and increased instability during the day under the generally trof will aid in shower development. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm today, with small hail the main threat. The best chances for precipitation will be west of a Roundup to Billings to Red Lodge through early afternoon, with precipitation chances tapering off mid afternoon into the evening as the system shifts northeast. Snow levels today will be 6200 feet in the Crazy mountains, 7000 feet in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, and 8500 feet in the Bighorn mountains, dropping about 500 feet this evening as precipitation tapers off. Heaviest snow forecast is for the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains where 3 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected through tonight.
Monday-Tuesday...Expect a break in precipitation late Sunday evening into Monday morning as the first trof pulls away and the next system organizes and drops through Idaho on its way into West-Central Wyoming by Monday night. As the system tracks this way the flow aloft backs to the south and becomes more divergent, increasing QG forcing over western zones by late morning. This will increase precipitation chances over the western mountains and foothills mid to late morning, spreading eastward as the system intensifies and makes an eastward pivot toward Wyoming. Tuesday sees the core of the system down around Casper by mid day, then opening up and shifting northeast into SoDak/NE Tuesday night. An ideal track for this system to maximize precipitation over our area is about 100-150 miles further north of the currently advertised track.
Precipitation...As currently advertised this system should still bring good precipitation to areas along the MT/WY line. Mon-Tue Probabilities for over half an inch of rain/melted snow are in the 40-70 percent range south of a Livingston/Absarokee/Wyola/S.Powder River line. The 50% 0.25 inch probability line runs from Harlowton/Billings/Lame Deer/just south of Ekalaka. Upslope winds will enhance precipitation in the immediate vicinity of the E/N facing slopes area mountains, so locally heavier amounts around an inch are possible where winds are favorable.
Snow...Snow levels Monday afternoon will be around 6500 feet in the Crazy mountains, 7200 feet in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, and 7600 feet in the Bighorn mountains, dropping around 500-1000 feet Monday night into Tuesday morning, then rising uniformly to around 7200 feet Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities for a foot+ of snow in the Beartooth and Crazy mountains Mon-Tue evening are around 25 percent. For the Bighorn mountains the chances are higher, from around 50 percent along the Sheridan/Johnson county line, to around 30 percent in the Burgess Junction area. Current forecast using WPC/NBM QPF and SLR are coming in a bit higher deterministically than these probabilities imply with just under a foot for the western mountains (above 8000feet) and up to 14 inches in the Big/Little Goose drainages of the Bighorn mountains.
Winter highlites...This model run went heavier on precipitation and snow compared to previous runs due to a more organized structure and more favorable track. Any shift of the track further south would diminish precipitation potential significantly, with a shift north increasing it. Given the current NBM probabilities, thinking an advisory might be the best option for the Bighorn mountains. In coordination with WFO Riverton elected to hold off on a Winter Storm Watch given the lean toward an advisory and let the Sunday Day shift take a look at another run before committing to that course of action since the main snow period will be Monday night into Tuesday. At this time not anticipating any Beartooth highlites as the Beartooth Highway is still closed, and probabilities for a foot+ of snow there is ~25 percent. Chambers
Wednesday through Sunday...
By late Wednesday, energy from an incoming trough will bring a 30-50% chance (highest over the west) of precipitation to the plains west of Forsyth and a 50-70% chance to the mountains and foothills. Thursday afternoon into evening, the chance for widespread precip increases further, with a 50-70% chance (highest over the west) of at least 0.25" of precip over the plains and a 50-60% chance of at least 0.5" over the mountains through Friday night. Over the highest peaks, this could translate to several inches of snow, with a 40% chance of at least 5 inches.
For late Friday into the weekend, there is more uncertainty on the timing and strength of the next system, although the overall pattern looks to remain unsettled. Some model solutions bring in the next trough by Saturday evening while others hold off until Sunday afternoon. Currently, there is a 30-50% chance (highest over the west) of precip over the plains and a 50-60% chance over the mountains and foothills for Saturday and Sunday.
High temperatures will primarily be in the upper 50s over the west to low 70s over the southeast. Friday is currently expected to be the coolest day, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Archer
AVIATION
Showers will spread from west to east and become more numerous today. With this, breezy northwest winds will occur with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Expect mountain obscurations. Archer
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060 038/060 043/062 042/069 045/061 042/060 041/066 6/R 25/T 45/T 13/W 47/T 65/W 34/W LVM 057 035/056 037/061 037/064 040/054 037/058 037/063 7/T 27/T 55/T 15/T 69/T 65/T 35/T HDN 065 038/061 043/063 039/071 045/065 041/060 040/068 4/R 24/R 45/R 12/W 46/T 75/W 34/W MLS 068 039/062 043/063 041/069 046/065 043/056 040/066 3/R 32/R 22/R 11/B 25/T 65/W 33/W 4BQ 070 041/060 044/061 040/069 045/069 044/059 040/066 2/R 23/R 45/R 21/U 14/T 65/W 33/W BHK 070 038/061 039/062 038/068 042/067 041/057 037/065 3/T 32/R 23/R 11/B 14/T 65/W 33/W SHR 068 036/056 038/055 035/068 040/066 038/056 037/066 3/T 26/R 78/T 32/T 25/T 65/W 33/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 236 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
DISCUSSION
Through Tuesday night...
A couple of disturbances will impact portions of the forecast area over the next 72 hours. The first is already here and will impact mainly the western mountains and foothills Today before lifting northeast of the area tonight. The second better organized system will take a more southerly track across central Wyoming and impact western and then southern sections of the forecast area. This second system has more energy/dynamics associated with it with the potential to bring more significant precipitation to the southern mountains and foothills. Heavy snow is a possibility for the higher elevations of the Beartooth/Absaroka and Bighorn mountains from Monday through Tuesday.
Today...A broad open trof that has sagged southward over the PacNW over the past 24 hours will move across W MT this morning and then lift northeast into NE MT/NW NoDak this evening. Good QG/Jet forcing will reside over the western third of the forecast area this morning, diminishing as the trof fills and moves northeast this afternoon/evening. North to northwest winds will enhance lift along the north facing slopes of the Beartooth front today, and increased instability during the day under the generally trof will aid in shower development. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm today, with small hail the main threat. The best chances for precipitation will be west of a Roundup to Billings to Red Lodge through early afternoon, with precipitation chances tapering off mid afternoon into the evening as the system shifts northeast. Snow levels today will be 6200 feet in the Crazy mountains, 7000 feet in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, and 8500 feet in the Bighorn mountains, dropping about 500 feet this evening as precipitation tapers off. Heaviest snow forecast is for the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains where 3 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected through tonight.
Monday-Tuesday...Expect a break in precipitation late Sunday evening into Monday morning as the first trof pulls away and the next system organizes and drops through Idaho on its way into West-Central Wyoming by Monday night. As the system tracks this way the flow aloft backs to the south and becomes more divergent, increasing QG forcing over western zones by late morning. This will increase precipitation chances over the western mountains and foothills mid to late morning, spreading eastward as the system intensifies and makes an eastward pivot toward Wyoming. Tuesday sees the core of the system down around Casper by mid day, then opening up and shifting northeast into SoDak/NE Tuesday night. An ideal track for this system to maximize precipitation over our area is about 100-150 miles further north of the currently advertised track.
Precipitation...As currently advertised this system should still bring good precipitation to areas along the MT/WY line. Mon-Tue Probabilities for over half an inch of rain/melted snow are in the 40-70 percent range south of a Livingston/Absarokee/Wyola/S.Powder River line. The 50% 0.25 inch probability line runs from Harlowton/Billings/Lame Deer/just south of Ekalaka. Upslope winds will enhance precipitation in the immediate vicinity of the E/N facing slopes area mountains, so locally heavier amounts around an inch are possible where winds are favorable.
Snow...Snow levels Monday afternoon will be around 6500 feet in the Crazy mountains, 7200 feet in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, and 7600 feet in the Bighorn mountains, dropping around 500-1000 feet Monday night into Tuesday morning, then rising uniformly to around 7200 feet Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities for a foot+ of snow in the Beartooth and Crazy mountains Mon-Tue evening are around 25 percent. For the Bighorn mountains the chances are higher, from around 50 percent along the Sheridan/Johnson county line, to around 30 percent in the Burgess Junction area. Current forecast using WPC/NBM QPF and SLR are coming in a bit higher deterministically than these probabilities imply with just under a foot for the western mountains (above 8000feet) and up to 14 inches in the Big/Little Goose drainages of the Bighorn mountains.
Winter highlites...This model run went heavier on precipitation and snow compared to previous runs due to a more organized structure and more favorable track. Any shift of the track further south would diminish precipitation potential significantly, with a shift north increasing it. Given the current NBM probabilities, thinking an advisory might be the best option for the Bighorn mountains. In coordination with WFO Riverton elected to hold off on a Winter Storm Watch given the lean toward an advisory and let the Sunday Day shift take a look at another run before committing to that course of action since the main snow period will be Monday night into Tuesday. At this time not anticipating any Beartooth highlites as the Beartooth Highway is still closed, and probabilities for a foot+ of snow there is ~25 percent. Chambers
Wednesday through Sunday...
By late Wednesday, energy from an incoming trough will bring a 30-50% chance (highest over the west) of precipitation to the plains west of Forsyth and a 50-70% chance to the mountains and foothills. Thursday afternoon into evening, the chance for widespread precip increases further, with a 50-70% chance (highest over the west) of at least 0.25" of precip over the plains and a 50-60% chance of at least 0.5" over the mountains through Friday night. Over the highest peaks, this could translate to several inches of snow, with a 40% chance of at least 5 inches.
For late Friday into the weekend, there is more uncertainty on the timing and strength of the next system, although the overall pattern looks to remain unsettled. Some model solutions bring in the next trough by Saturday evening while others hold off until Sunday afternoon. Currently, there is a 30-50% chance (highest over the west) of precip over the plains and a 50-60% chance over the mountains and foothills for Saturday and Sunday.
High temperatures will primarily be in the upper 50s over the west to low 70s over the southeast. Friday is currently expected to be the coolest day, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Archer
AVIATION
Showers will spread from west to east and become more numerous today. With this, breezy northwest winds will occur with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Expect mountain obscurations. Archer
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060 038/060 043/062 042/069 045/061 042/060 041/066 6/R 25/T 45/T 13/W 47/T 65/W 34/W LVM 057 035/056 037/061 037/064 040/054 037/058 037/063 7/T 27/T 55/T 15/T 69/T 65/T 35/T HDN 065 038/061 043/063 039/071 045/065 041/060 040/068 4/R 24/R 45/R 12/W 46/T 75/W 34/W MLS 068 039/062 043/063 041/069 046/065 043/056 040/066 3/R 32/R 22/R 11/B 25/T 65/W 33/W 4BQ 070 041/060 044/061 040/069 045/069 044/059 040/066 2/R 23/R 45/R 21/U 14/T 65/W 33/W BHK 070 038/061 039/062 038/068 042/067 041/057 037/065 3/T 32/R 23/R 11/B 14/T 65/W 33/W SHR 068 036/056 038/055 035/068 040/066 038/056 037/066 3/T 26/R 78/T 32/T 25/T 65/W 33/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBIL BILLINGS LOGAN INTL,MT | 24 sm | 49 min | NNW 11 | 8 sm | Overcast | Rain | 45°F | 39°F | 81% | 29.92 |
Billings, MT,
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