Mackinac Island, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mackinac Island, MI

June 15, 2024 4:58 PM EDT (20:58 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 9:34 PM
Moonrise 2:06 PM   Moonset 1:17 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 346 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024

Through early evening - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tonight - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday night - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinac Island, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 151939 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 339 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing potential for showers/storms tonight and especially Sunday...

- High heat and humidity to kick off the week.

- Some shower/thunder potential at times into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

High pressure slowly departing northeast this afternoon. Lingering mid clouds across the EUP with the weak PV niblet slipping through up there. More widespread clouds upstream over WI in advance of PV max located over S. IA/N. MO; some radar returns over central WI, though unclear how much of this is reaching the ground attm. Worth noting that some mid-level clouds starting to develop to our south over Lake MI/MKG as high clouds and weak bit of energy (possibly some longwave gravity waves?) move into the region.

Expecting PV niblet over IA/MO to continue to slip northeastward into WI tonight; bit of energy ahead of this should try to pivot through here overnight, though unclear if anything will actually make it to the ground in our CWA with this...though not impossible.
Setup late tonight into Sunday appears quite favorable for upstream MCS development, as 700mb cap builds in as close as IA/western WI...with strengthening SSW/SW-ly LLJ advecting weaker stability off this atmospheric plateau, amid an increasingly moist and unstable environment. Question remains, how quickly will this reach our CWA? Could depend on how things evolve tonight/Sunday morning...as well as how the pattern ultimately sets from our west into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Increasing potential for showers/storms tonight and especially Sunday...

As mentioned above...pattern setup favors upstream MCS development...though questions remain as to exactly how/where this will occur. First, appears we may have to watch for an initial bout of warm advection nonsense into the region late tonight (9- 12z)...which will be fighting against the dry air mass in place attm. Bonus is that this could serve to prime the mid/low levels in our area for the next round of activity expected to slide in with the niblet itself Sunday afternoon...and this assumes the timing works out as such, with two distinct areas of convection as opposed to nuisance convection turning to nuisance decaying convection, which isn't impossible
However
any activity that develops in the afternoon could become somewhat interesting, given that this is when the best theta-e advection off the upstream ridge appears to occur, and should also have better synoptic support with the PV anomaly itself. May need to keep an eye out for some training development/hydro concerns? We'll see how it all pans out; we may not fully know till we start to see the whites of its eyes tonight.

Aforementioned morning junk will throw a wrench in the forecast, with the possibility that all of the activity ends up less bullish and remains broadly north...or, if far enough north (which would allow for better diurnal heating near the M-55 corridor), could allow for a secondary area of convection to initiate in the afternoon...though we will have a cap in place around 800mb which could be problematic for storm development. Bulk shear values around 30-40kts could be supportive of storm organization with anything, though think the best threat would be for hail, given that storms /should/ be elevated
To be honest
max instability (esp in the form of MUCAPE) appears to remain to our west through the period...though instability should be on the increase during the later afternoon to support at least some kind of activity trying to make it in. Do have to wonder if morning convection will mess up diurnal heating potential for parts of our area...so will have to keep an eye on this
For now
think the greatest chances for storms will be the EUP and areas more or less west of I-75-ish, closer to the forcing/BCZ and better moisture/instability.

BOTTOM LINE...Sunday's forecast remains very unclear beyond broadly that it should be warm/humid with some kind of activity during the day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

No doubt remains...anomalously strong subtropical ridge set to mature across the eastern Conus early this week. Direct surge of warm air advection between this ridge and broad western troughing set to deliver quite the warm and humid airmass into the Northwoods.
Some hints that above pattern will attempt to break down as we head into the mid and end portions of the week as upstream trough axis shears northeast with time.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Again, main focus centers on upcoming heat and humidity...with a secondary concern remaining on shower and thunderstorm potential.

Details:

Complete analysis of low level thermal profiles continue to support much of northern lower Michigan making a run into at least the lower 90s both Monday and Tuesday afternoons....with readings a bit cooler near those big waters and north of the Straits. Uncertainty has only increased beyond this period...all dependent on just how fast this amplified pattern breaks down. Given anticipated strength of upstream ridging, wouldn't be surprised if any significant relief is delayed until at least Thursday. Again, low level streamline wind analysis shows at least a partial connection to subtropical moisture plume, supporting elevated dewpoints into the 60s. This will not only force apparent temperatures to at or above actual temperatures, but will not allow significant cooling during the overnight hours...
with lows likely not falling out of the 70s for some areas. While specific heat headline criteria may not be met, no doubt early next week continues to look uncomfortably warm at least, and perhaps dangerously so for those who work outdoors and for those who do not have access to home cooling.

Pattern recognition continues to support primary area of renewed convective development remaining off to our west and northwest through Tuesday where best juxtaposition of instability and deep layer moisture convergence will reside. May see some scattered diurnally-driven convection across our area, especially if lake breeze convergence axes can mature. Definitely not expecting anything widespread, with most areas likely remaining dry through Tuesday. Questions with regards to shower and storm trends only increase thereafter, again centered on just how fast early week pattern can relax. Definitely could get a bit active the second half of the week into next weekend, with some hints of a slow moving baroclinic axis interacting with a well established moisture rich environment across the Great Lakes. Only time will tell of course.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR ceilings/visbys expected through the TAF period. Do think ceilings around 7-10kft are likely at times tonight into Sunday, however, esp along and west of I-75. Slight chance for rogue sprinkles/showers near KCIU, and esp. KTVC, KMBL through the afternoon though have left this out of the TAFs attm given lack of confidence in rain making it to the ground through tonight...perhaps even into part of Sunday, though moderate confidence in development of rain/storms Sunday afternoon (perhaps even as early as 6-12z Sunday) that could track through the region...though more likely after this TAF period ends. Have left ts out of TAFs attm, but will need to monitor this, esp if anything develops over WI this evening.
Other primary concern will be increasing winds tonight/Sunday...becoming generally SSE around 10kts gusting 15- 25kts, esp by Sunday AM...again, along and west of I-75.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ348.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ323- 341-342.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ344>346.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45175 8 mi38 minE 14 59°F 1 ft
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 8 mi58 minESE 9.9G12 61°F30.10
CYGM4 - Cheybogan, MI 16 mi128 minSE 6G12
SRLM4 26 mi118 minESE 12 57°F 44°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 36 mi58 minSE 9.9G11 58°F30.13
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 37 mi58 minSSE 8.9G13 53°F30.14
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi58 minSSE 12G15 53°F30.14
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 43 mi58 minESE 8G11 30.13
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 46 mi58 minSSE 9.9G12 51°F30.13
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 46 mi78 minESE 2.9G4.1 62°F 30.14
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 46 mi58 minESE 5.1G8.9 56°F30.14


Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Gaylord, MI,




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