Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 9:01 PM Moonrise 7:28 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1046 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
Overnight - Light winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Scattered showers early in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - North wind 5 to 10 knots. Numerous showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 110339 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1139 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers likely tonight and Saturday.

- Patchy frost possible Sunday morning.

- Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms later Sunday into Sunday night.

- Quiet weather continues for the first half of next week.
Watching for more showers and storms to return later next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 1038 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Sharp shortwave trough will work across the area tonight, bringing an expanding area of showers along with it. Showers will continue into Saturday, gradually ending from the west to east as we head through the day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Diurnally driven clouds and possible isolated showers/sprinkles should fade away this afternoon and early evening. This may present a small window to get a peak of the possible northern lights. Clouds then increase and thicken from late evening into the overnight hours. Rain showers are then likely to spread in from west to east overnight and continue into Saturday as low pressure crosses the region. Lows tonight mainly in the 40s.
Lowered max temperatures some for Saturday due to guidance lingering showers and clouds through much of the day. Highs generally in the 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Chaotic split mid-level flow across north America will keep weather active at times for the Great Lakes region. Northern branch embedded disturbances continue to push precipitation to the region along with temperatures around climatological average.

A shortwave ridge currently centered over the Upper midwest will begin to build at the start of the long term period. Troughing to the north will drag a weak frontal boundary across the state Sunday night before conditions turn drier aided by a zonal midlevel pattern through Wednesday. Attention turns towards long range guidance of a potential stronger system to deepen lee of the Canadian Rockies to progress to the central CONUS returning stronger chances of more impactful weather to the CWA

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Patchy frost potential Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms return this Sunday: Cloudy cover is expected to dissipate at the start of the forecast period allowing for temperatures to rapidly drop to the mid 30s for interior locations. Some patchy frost is expected but no widespread event is expected. Troughing along the southern shore of Hudson Bay will drag a weak cold front across the CWA this Sunday evening but a few showers could start as early as Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will be expected to pass in the evening, but only a general tenth or so of QPF will come from showers.

-Quiet weather continues for the first half of next week. Watching for more showers and storms return later next week: A midlevel zonal flow pattern begins to set up over the Great Lakes region beginning this Monday allowing for moisture to bifurcate around the region.
Weather will remain quiet for the most part Monday through Thursday ahead of low pressure currently over the Gulf of Alaska that makes its way towards the central CONUS by Friday. To early to message details, but we will continue to monitor this feature and its potential impacts as we head closer to mid May. Precipitation-free chances begin to push into the region by Saturday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1138 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Band of MVFR to IFR producing low clouds and visibility restricting showers will continue to slowly spread west to east across the taf sites this morning. Some slow improvement expected across western taf locations as we head through this afternoon, with more rapid improvement this evening. No significant wind concerns through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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