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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 241 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel..
General seas..4 to 5 ft through Wednesday morning.
First ebb..Ebb current of 3.37 kt at 454 am Tuesday. Seas 5 ft.
SEcond ebb..Very strong ebb current of 6.59 kt at 503 pm Tuesday. Seas 7 ft.
Third ebb..Ebb current of 3.1 kt at 537 am Wednesday. Seas 4 ft.

PZZ200 241 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure continues over the waters Tuesday to Wednesday, maintaining offshore winds. A cold front will then move through the waters Wednesday night into Thursday, with winds gradually strengthening and turning southerly.

FXUS66 KPQR 281759 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 958 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Aviation Discussion Updated...

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will maintain dry days with chilly mornings through midweek. Active pattern returns late bringing rain and mountain snow to the region late in the week and through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A persistent pattern continues through midweek as high pressure remains anchored over the Pacific NW. Overnight lows will drop below freezing bringing widespread frost across the lowlands today and Wednesday morning. The thermal belt of the inversion will reach roughly 7000 ft producing slightly warmer temperatures across parts of the Cascades with temperatures dropping at higher elevations.

As per DEQ, an Air Quality Advisory has been issued for the southern and central Willamette Valley, as well as an Air Stagnation Advisory at the Lane County Cascade foothills. Subsidence and weak transport winds will limit mixing in the aforementioned areas which will cause smoke and other particulate matter to linger. Advisories are expected to end Thursday morning as a frontal system approaches bringing rain and stronger winds to the region thereafter.

A Gulf of Alaska low will send a dissipating cold front south and onshore across the Pacific NW late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Snow levels remain between 2500-3500 feet during the frontal passage, allowing for light snow accumulations at higher elevations. In the first 24 hours of rainfall (4am Thu to 4am Fri), the Willamette Valley sees only a 10-20% chance of exceeding 0.5" of rainfall, while the Coast Range, Cascades, and Willapa Hills see a 50-70% chance of the same. Another weakening cold front will move onshore Friday midday bringing higher QPF to the area. Light snow accumulations across the Cascades will continue Saturday as 850mb temperatures remain a few degrees below freezing in the postfrontal air mass.

Another low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska will send a weak warm front northeast towards the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow levels will rise up to 5000 ft early Sunday and will continue to rise to around 7000 ft by Monday. Integrated water vapor within warm southwesterly flow will produce heavy rain but very low snow ratios and therefore little snow accumulations across the high terrain. Rivers and tributaries will be on the rise and some may see a 20-30% chance of minor flooding.

AVIATION
18z TAFs: High pressure aloft will maintain dry conditions and VFR thresholds under clear skies across the region through the TAF period. An exception would be the south Willamette Valley, where current satellite imagery as of 17z Tue show freezing fog near KEUG. Expect fog in the south Valley to dissipate after 18-20z Tue. The rest of the Valley has a less than 20% chance of fog. KPDX and KTTD have the lowest chances for fog due to easterly winds inhibition of fog development.

Areas of frost are expected to form on exposed surfaces again through Tuesday morning for any given terminal. Significant accumulation is not expected. Easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge continue, with gusts up to 25-30 kts at KTTD, decreasing into tonight. Winds are forecast to be light and offshore elsewhere.

** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR thresholds under mostly clear skies through the entire TAF period. Frost is expected to form again through Tuesday morning, especially in shaded areas. Easterly winds continue at 05-10 kts. Elevated east winds will likely eliminate fog chances Tuesday morning, with a less than 15% chance in areas around KPDX. If surface winds become calm and westerly or variable again Tuesday morning with the easterly winds aloft, LLWS is possible. /JH

MARINE
Broad high pressure continues over the waters today to Wednesday as a low pressure system shifts far south of our area towards California. This will maintain light offshore winds over the waters. The only marine hazard currently issued is a Small Craft Advisory for the Columbia River Bar for a very strong ebb Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday night to Thursday, a cold front will move through the waters, turning winds southerly and gradually strengthening winds to potentially small craft criteria (60-80% chance). Combined seas are forecast around 4 to 6 ft at 11-13 seconds through Thursday. Thursday night into the weekend, a series of low pressure systems near the Gulf of Alaska will amplify swells and bring stronger winds. This would bring significantly higher seas.
Current NBM 10th percentile guidance show wave heights between 12-15 ft this weekend. As a result, there is the potential for a sneaker wave threat this weekend. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County.

WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

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Vancouver
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Tue -- 02:53 AM PST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:27 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM PST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:16 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:56 PM PST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:15 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:16 PM PST     2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

Knappa
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Tue -- 02:37 AM PST     7.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM PST     2.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:23 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:39 PM PST     9.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:16 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:25 PM PST     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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