Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 2:11 AM   Moonset 11:20 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 245 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - Around 3 ft through Friday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.78 kt at 1214 am Thursday. Seas 3 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 4.27 kt at 1217 pm Thursday. Seas 3 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.6 kt at 119 am Friday. Seas 3 ft.

PZZ200 245 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Warm front pushes inland Thursday morning. Low pressure drops down from the northeast pacific on Friday increasing winds. A period of active weather persists through the weekend.

FXUS66 KPQR 011752 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1052 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024

Updated aviation discussion and hazards.



SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry conditions prevail today before another system arrives this evening into Thursday morning. This will bring another round of rain and mountain snow above 4000 ft.
Heaviest snowfall will be above 5500 ft. A more robust system arrives Friday, with forecast precipitation around 0.75-1.5 inch across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Snow levels Friday will rise above 6500 ft. Rivers still have a less than 5% chance of reaching action stage. Wet, unsettled weather likely continues over the weekend through at least early next week.

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday night...Conditions will be mostly dry today before the next system arrives this evening.
We'll have some relatively warmer high temperatures today compared to what we've experienced the last couple days.
Afternoon highs are forecast in the low 50s along the coast, upper 50s/low 60s for inland valleys, and 40s for higher terrain.

The next low pressure system will arrive Wednesday evening to Thursday morning, bringing another round of precipitation.
Expect lowland rain showers and Cascade snow showers, with snow levels around 4000-4500 ft. The bulk of the snow will be above the Cascade passes. 24 hr snow amounts ending 5 PM Thursday are forecast around 2-5 inches above 4000 ft, except up to 10 inches above 5500 ft. Have decided not to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades considering that the heaviest snowfall for this system will be above the passes and forecast snow amounts look less than what we've seen with the previous systems earlier this week. Current NBM guidance suggests a less than 5% chance that the Cascade passes see 24 hr snowfall greater than 5 inches ending 5 PM Thursday.

Thursday afternoon to late Thursday night, conditions will dry up briefly before another system approaches the Pacific Northwest on Friday. -Alviz


LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...The long term forecast is characterized by wet, unsettled weather as a series of systems pushes through the Pacific Northwest. WPC cluster analyses are in agreement of another trough pushing through the region on Friday. This looks like a stronger system with abundant moisture as GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members show IVT values peaking between 250-500 kg/ms on Friday.

The latest NBM guidance suggests a 25-45% chance that 24 hr QPF ending 11 AM Saturday exceeds 2 inches for the Coast Range and Cascades. For inland valleys, this probability is less than 5%.
For now, our current 24 hr QPF forecast ending 11 AM Saturday calls for 0.75-1 inch for inland valleys and 1-1.5 inch for the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades. This will also be a relatively warmer system, so snow levels during this time are forecast well above the Cascade passes (around 6500-7000 ft).

Over the weekend (Sat-Sun), WPC clusters are in agreement that this robust upper level trough will continue to progress southeast toward Northern California and the Great Basin. As it does, additional precipitation will continue through the weekend. Chances for 48 hr QPF exceeding 1 inch ending 5 AM Monday are around 40-60% for the Coast Range and Cascades, and 5-10% for inland valleys.

Currently, HEFS guidance shows all rivers across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington having a less than 5% chance of reaching action stage. However, we will still continue to monitor the potential for hydro impacts to our rivers. Flood control reservoirs are now full for summer water supply, so the Willamette River can be more susceptible to flooding now. Those with river interests should continue to monitor the forecast over the next few days.

WPC cluster analyses are in agreement of additional troughing over the Pacific Northwest Monday to Tuesday. There still remains some uncertainty with how strong the troughing will be, but the majority of ensemble members suggests we'll maintain a wet pattern through at least early next week. Don't put your rain jacket or rain boots away just yet! -Alviz

AVIATION
Mainly non-impactful post-frontal showers this morning, though they will taper in the afternoon. Satellite shows some bubbling cumulus east of KPDX with stratus from the Coast Range westward. Will see some light thinning after 22Z and more widespread VFR, though some of the drainage airports near rivers (like KKLS) will remain MVFR during this improvement session.

A warm front will slowly move over the region from the southwest after 04Z Thursday first impacting the central Oregon coast. There does appear to be some orographic lift over the Coast Range with rain shadowing for inland sites north of KUAO. Will see the lowest CIGs from KSLE southward including KEUG. There is around a 50% chance for near IFR CIGs after 08Z Thursday from KCVO southward. Because confidence is low, have omitted from the TAFs.
LLWS is not a concerns as winds aloft are unidirectional. After 12Z Thursday, will see a transition to easterly winds through the atmosphere.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
There is no estimated time of full repair and restoration for this location.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with a 40% chance of MVFR CIGs based on high resolution models late (after 06Z Thursday). Because it is a warm front incoming, have lowered CIGs to high end MVFR levels as that is a general trend. Rain will be light, with no impacts to VIS due to a lack of wind. Light winds follow with easterly winds above 1000 ft AGL while surface winds will be variable.
-Muessle

MARINE
Active weather pattern continues through the week as Pacific front move through the waters about once a day, bringing periods of Small Craft Advisory winds. The next front arrives tonight and is expected to bring southerly winds gusts to 25 kt, primarily over PZZ271 and 272. The next front for Friday looks a little stronger with gusts 20 to 30 kt across most of the zones.
A weaker front follows on Saturday. Seas around 9 ft with a period around 11 seconds early this morning. Seas will subside to around 4 to 6 ft later today through Friday, then expected inch up to near 8 ft late in the weekend. -MH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ271-272.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Kalama, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS, Tide feet

Longview, Columbia River, Washington, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Portland, OR,