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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 223 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm pst this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 10 pm pst this evening through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
In the main channel..
General seas..10 to 12 ft building to 11 to 14 ft Saturday evening.
First ebb..Ebb current of 5.09 kt at 701 pm Friday. Seas 10 to 12 ft.
SEcond ebb..Ebb current of 2.38 kt at 755 am Saturday. Seas 12 to 14 ft.
Third ebb..Ebb current of 4.49 kt at 744 pm Saturday. Seas 11 to 14 ft.

PZZ200 223 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Tonight and into the weekend, a series of systems will maintain gusty southerly to westerly winds with building seas. Overall, a very active weather pattern is expected to continue through the start of the upcoming week.

FXUS66 KPQR 012307 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 307 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
A set of atmospheric rivers will move over the region through the weekend. The next system (the weaker of the two) arrives Saturday, with the second trailing on Sunday.
Higher confidence in the next arriving on Monday. Will see heavy rain, warmer temperatures, and gusty winds with each system. Snow will dissipate on Saturday through the Cascades.



SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A very dynamic system over the weekend as a series of atmospheric rivers (AR) move over the Pacific Northwest. Starting aloft, a low pressure system drops down over southeast Alaska which will encourage westerly flow aloft. This low will push a weaker cold front over the area, though it will still have ample energy and precipitation associated with it. This next system currently has around 150% of the normal precipitable water content which falls in line with the weak AR trend. However, this is not an overly robust system in comparison to the ones that will follow. IVT values a tool used to describe the intensity of an AR) sit at around 500 kg/ms which coincides with a weak to moderate AR. Will see continued rainfall below 3000 ft, and some lingering snow at higher elevations in the Cascades. The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect, though snow levels are rising considerably.
Highest snow amounts will be above 4500 ft where an additional 20-30 inches of snow is possible. Winds will also be a concern with this next system, though they are falling well below any hazard criteria. The pressure gradient from Portland to Eugene shows around a -9mb difference between the two sites which coincides with gusts around 35 mph or so from the south. This will occur Saturday morning.

Moving into Sunday, the next AR arrives. This system has much more support aloft, and wrap around warmer air from the Pacific.
With the warmer system incoming, temperatures will rise considerably so all areas will be at or above freezing...both during the day and night. At 850 mb (around 5000 ft)
temperatures will be around 5 deg C which supports warmer air through the column. This also shows that at the mountain tops, snow melt is likely. Rainfall amounts are still quite variable. 24-hr ensemble forecasts shows the area around the Siuslaw Natl Forest at a widespread 4 inches, with the Cascades 4-5 inches.
The bulk of the rain will fall along the Coast Range and the Cascades. Due to the instability and isentropic lift, have trended on the high side for the precipitation accumulation forecast. Will also note that the WPC has included our area in a marginal to slight excessive rainfall forecast.

With the excessive rain and the melting snow, flooding is likely. Please see the hydrology section below for more information.

The next AR arrives on Monday into Tuesday. This system has the potential to be the strongest of the systems thus far. As it stands, it is well into the moderate to strong category. There have been a few shifts though as models like the ECMWF have shifted it a bit further north. This means that the main target of the precipitation would be from Marion County northward and along the ranges. For more information about this event, read the long term discussion. -Muessle

LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Agreement is good regarding another AR event on Monday evening/night, with fair confidence regarding IVT values between 700-950 kg/(ms). Rainfall with this event looks to be slower moving compared to the weekend's AR events, but with possibly higher overall QPF over a wider range of time. In the first 24 hrs of rainfall (4pm Mon to 4pm Tue), the Portland metro area sees around a 50% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5". Agreement is improving regarding the system tracking slightly further north, with the Washington parts of our forecast area and northern Coast Range seeing 85+% chance of exceeding 1.5". The southern parts of our forecast area will see lighter rainfall, with only a 20-40% chance of exceeding 1.5". River flooding continues to be an issue on Sunday with continued rainfall and snowmelt from the mountains; see the Hydrology section for more details.

We continue to see active weather throughout Tuesday and Wednesday as we remain in an unsettled post-frontal showery regime. Rain amounts look lighter during this period, with somewhat warmer temperatures that will slowly decrease. Deterministic ECMWF and GFS runs are still hinting at a weak system developing Thursday, but this is unlikely to meet Atmospheric River criteria, and overall QPF currently looks weak. However, many ensemble members don't show this feature, and being so far out, uncertainty is still high for this system. -JLiu

AVIATION
Current radar imagery and observations as of 22Z Friday show rain continuing to push across the region resulting in a mixture of VFR/MVFR flight conditions. Expect westerly winds with gusts up to 20 kt.

Persistent precipitation returns around 00Z Saturday, along with renewed chances of southerly/westerly gusts of up to 40 kt along the coast starting around 06Z Saturday. This next round of precipitation will push inland around 06Z Saturday and bring gusty southwesterly winds up to 35 kt starting around 08Z Saturday through around 18Z Saturday.

** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR/MVFR conditions through the TAF period as a frontal system moves across the area and brings widespread rain. Expect westerly winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Persistent precipitation returns around 06Z Saturday, along with gusty southwesterly winds up to 35 kt starting around 10Z Saturday through 18Z Saturday. -42

MARINE
Seas around 13-16 ft at 12-15 seconds through tonight.
Therefore, a Hazardous Seas Warning is now in effect for all waters except PZZ253 and PZZ273 through late tonight.

On Saturday, another system will bring another round of Gale force gusts up to 45 kt with seas building to 16-18 ft with a period of 13-17 seconds. Sunday through early next week, a very active weather pattern persists, with a 70-80% chance for additional rounds of Gale force gusts over the waters. Seas will remained elevated through at least Monday to mid-next week and peak up to 18-20 ft. A brief break will be possible Tuesday- Wednesday, but models show another system approaching the waters by Wednesday that would maintain elevated seas. -42/Alviz

HYDROLOGY
A series of at least two, if not three, atmospheric rivers will bring periods of widespread heavy rain to northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this weekend into early next week.
The first system will also bring heavy Cascade snow for elevations above 3000 feet through Saturday evening before snow levels rapidly rise above 6000-7000 feet Saturday night. This means mountain snowmelt will also be a contributing factor in regards to river flooding concerns Sunday into early next week as rain will be falling over a fresh snowpack. The period of heaviest rainfall is currently expected to occur Saturday night through Sunday. Forecast precipitation amounts remain on track from prior forecast packages, with rain amounts for the entire weekend still expected to range between 3.0-5.0 inches along the coast, 4.5-7.0 inches over the Willapa Hills and Oregon Coast Range, and 2.50-4.0 inches across the Willamette Valley, Portland/Vancouver metro, and interior lowlands of southwest WA. Additionally, 4.0-7.0 inches of rain is expected over the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and western Columbia River Gorge, with 2.5-3.5 inches expected for central Columbia River Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley. Additional rainfall will occur early next week, however uncertainty remains high regarding exact rain amounts from Monday onward.

Given the aforementioned rainfall amounts expected this weekend, river levels will be rising quickly. Many rivers across northwest OR and southwest WA still show anywhere from a 30-50% chance of reaching at least minor flood stage, except for the mainstem Columbia and Willamette Rivers where the chance of reaching minor flood stage is now around 5-10%. Many coastal rivers still show closer to a 40-60% chance of minor flood stage and 15-30% chance of reaching major flood stage; this includes the Naselle River near Naselle, the Nehalem River near Foss, the Wilson River and Trask River near Tillamook, the Nestucca River near Beaver, and the Siletz River at Siletz. To view current and forecast river stages for any river gage location across southwest WA and northwest OR, visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr

Lastly, urban flooding is also possible this weekend, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. If you have gutters and/or storm drains that still need to be cleared out, now is the time. Any motorists with travel plans this weekend should also allow extra time for their commute as hydroplaning will be a risk due to ponding of water on roads. -CB/TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ORZ001>008-010-012.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Wednesday night for ORZ001-002.
High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for ORZ006>008.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ011-013.
WA...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for WAZ020>022-039-040.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Wednesday night for WAZ021.
High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for WAZ039.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Saturday for WAZ019.
PZ...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for PZZ251.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Wednesday night for PZZ251.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Saturday for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 6 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ210- 253-273.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ210.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ251- 252-271-272.

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