Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gearhart, OR

SYNOPSIS
Broad high pressure over the region will maintain generally dry conditions through the next several days. An upper level low offshore will bring chances for elevated thunderstorms over the Cascades today, however, some of which may track toward the Willamette Valley this afternoon and evening. A warming trend will peak on Sunday with daily record high temperatures in the forecast for some inland areas.
Temperatures will cool but remain above normal into the next workweek.

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday Night...An elongated upper trough just offshore of the Washington and Oregon coasts continues to pinch off into a closed low that will drift southward toward the California coast through the remainder of the weekend while a broad upper-level ridge otherwise persists over the Northeast Pacific and western CONUS. Northerly surface flow continues across the region with coastal marine stratus expected to diminish in coverage through today, but less so in coastal portions of Lane and Lincoln Counties.

Sufficient vorticity advection aloft on the eastern flank of the developing closed low will support another round of afternoon and evening convection later today. There continues to be high confidence in surface-based instability reaching 1000-1500 J/kg or more on the west side of the Cascade crest by the early afternoon, while the southerly mid-level steering flow in place early this morning will back out of the southeast through this afternoon. Any convection that does develop on the western slopes of the Cascades may therefore tend to move toward the Willamette Valley, and CAMs continue to support modest chances (15-35%) for thunderstorms between I-5 and the Cascade crest.
These chances are highest closer to the upper low, namely over Lane, Linn, and Marion Counties, but an isolated thunderstorm as far north as the Columbia River and Portland/Vancouver Metro certainly cannot be ruled out. That all being said, shear will likely remain too low and severe storms are not anticipated.
The most likely time for thunder will be from 2-8 PM today.

As the upper low drifts farther south off of California through tonight, renewed upper ridging will come to again dominate conditions locally. Incipient offshore flow will maintain mild overnight temperatures in the 50s, with the Columbia River Gorge and Portland/Vancouver Metro possibly (near 50% and 20-35% chance, respectively) failing to fall below 60F tonight into early Sunday morning. As mid-level temperatures rise to 17-18C by Sunday afternoon, deep mixing will push surface temperatures some 15-25F above normal for early May. Chances to exceed 90F remain the highest, 75-95% chance, in the Portland/Vancouver Metro, with lower but still notable chances elsewhere: near 40% in the Cowlitz/Lewis Valleys including Kelso/Longview, 30-50% in the northern Willamette Valley from Salem northward, and 10-30% elsewhere at low elevations inland, including Eugene/Springfield and Albany/Corvallis. Valleys within the western Cascade and eastern Coast Range slopes will also see 25-50% chances of hitting 90F Sunday afternoon. Warmer than normal temperatures will extend nearly all the way west to the coast, with immediate coastal locales remaining closer to seasonal norms. While offshore flow weakens on Sunday night, another mild night in the 50s will still provide relief from the heat, although there continue to be 25-50% chances temperatures remain above 60F through early Monday morning along the I-5 and I-84 corridors north and east of the Portland/Vancouver metro.

These forecast high temperatures remain on track to challenge daily records at inland climate sites along the I-5 corridor on Sunday; refer to the Climate section below for details on current record values across the region. The combination of mild nights and a hot afternoon continue to yield Moderate HeatRisk across the Portland/Vancouver metro and Lower Columbia & Cowlitz Valleys, and a Heat Advisory therefore remains in effect for these areas from 9 AM through 11 PM Sunday. Those sensitive to heat or participating in strenuous outdoor activities may be at higher risk of developing heat illness, and should drink plenty of fluids or find a cool place to avoid the peak afternoon heat.
Despite hot air temperatures, area rivers and lakes remain cold enough to cause cold shock and possible death. Those heading to the coast to avoid the heat should remain aware of an elevated risk for sneaker waves through Sunday. Sneaker waves can sweep you off of your feet and dislodge logs causing hazardous conditions. Avoid jetties, rocks, and logs within the surf zone, and never turn your back on the ocean. -36


LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...By the beginning of the workweek, ensemble guidance continues to favor moderating temperatures as the upper ridge axis moves inland. A southerly wind reversal will increase marine stratus coverage along the coast, with broader onshore flow cooling inland areas as well.
There is general consensus in dry conditions across most of the region, however a minority of ensemble members depict very light rain or drizzle within the shallow marine layer, most likely in the overnight or early morning hours.

Late in the week, guidance favors a flattening of the upper ridge as shortwave impulses ride up and over its northern periphery. This pattern will favor temperatures cooling further toward seasonal norms, as well as supporting low (10-25%)
chances for light rain across portions of the region. -36

AVIATION
Mixed VFR/MVFR flying conditions are in place early this morning across the region as marine stratus reaches inland.
Low-end MVFR cigs are favored to persist at coastal terminals through 19-22z Sat until low clouds mix out and conditions return to VFR. North to northwesterly winds at 5-10 kt will continue through 03-06z Sun, when offshore northeasterly flow will begin to develop. A narrow tongue of marine stratus along the central OR coast may again result in MVFR cigs south of KTMK, while clearer skies are more likely to the north.

Inland, MVFR cigs have reached eastward along the Lower Columbia River to Portland-area terminals including at KPDX/KVUO/KTTD.
Marine stratus will also continue to push inland through Coast Range gaps to the southern Willamette Valley, with 50-60% chances of MVFR cigs at KEUG/KCVO after 14-15z Sat. Across the northern Willamette Valley including KUAO/KSLE, stratus development against the Cascade foothills is expected to support low-end VFR cigs, while chances for bases to lower to MVFR levels reaches only 20-40% through 18z Sat. Terminals to the west of the Willamette River (KMMV/KHIO) are much less likely to see MVFR cigs early this morning. Any low clouds will tend to mix out by 17-19z Sat, with VFR conditions then favored through the remainder of the period. Diurnal northerly winds will build to around 5 kt this afternoon, then ease by 03-06z Sun. After 21z Sat, showers and thunderstorms (15-35% chance) may begin to develop on the west side of the Cascade crest. While any storms are expected to track to the northwest, confidence in any convective precipitation at area terminals is too low to include in TAFs at this lead time. Any showers or storms will tend to dissipate after 03z Sun.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...An inland push of marine stratus has resulted in MVFR cigs around 1.5-2 kft early this morning, and is favored to persist through 17-19z Sat. Skies will trend clearer as low clouds mix out this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms developing over the Cascades will track to the northwest, but there chances of terminal impacts are very low.
Diurnal north to northwest winds will build to around 5 kt this afternoon, then ease after 03-06z Sun. -36

MARINE
Northerly winds continue through the weekend, rising to diurnal peaks in the afternoon and easing overnight. A steady slackening of the surface pressure gradient will favor lighter winds through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect beyond 10 NM south of Cape Falcon through only 8 AM today before gusts fall below 20 kt. Seas of 5-6 ft this morning will slowly increase to 6-8 ft as a long-period northwest swell arrives through today. A further Small Craft Advisory has been hoisted for 3-9 AM Sunday within the Columbia River Bar as a strong ebb current yields steep seas of 7-8 ft.

A wind reversal on Monday will see southerly to southwesterly flow continue through Tuesday night, with increased low marine stratus and overnight drizzle or light rain across nearshore areas. More seasonable northerly flow redevelops in the latter half of the week with persistent seas of 4-6 ft. -36

CLIMATE

Daily record high temperatures for Sunday, May 3

Location Forecast Record Year

Astoria 75 81 1992, 1944 Vancouver 89 84 1944 Portland Int'l 91 89 1992 Hillsboro 89 82 2017 McMinnville 86 87 1992 Salem 86 86 1992 Eugene 83 83 1944

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ108-109-111- 112.

WA...Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for WAZ204>207.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ272- 273.