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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 207 Pm Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Saturday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening...
In the main channel..
General seas..8 ft building to 9 to 11 ft Saturday afternoon.
First ebb..Ebb current of 4.46 kt at 121 pm Friday. Seas 8 ft.
SEcond ebb..Ebb current of 2.74 kt at 135 am Saturday. Seas 7 ft.
Third ebb..Ebb current of 5.07 kt at 203 pm Saturday. Seas 9 to 11 ft.

PZZ200 207 Pm Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure Friday, then a warm front moves over the water Saturday morning. Increasing winds and seas on Saturday and Sunday.

FXUS66 KPQR 082237 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 237 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings temporary dry conditions through tonight, but rain returns on Saturday with the next system set to impact the region through Sunday. Showers continue into next Monday, with a stretch of drier weather possible through mid week and perhaps longer.

SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Transient upper level ridging yields partially clearing skies and diminishing shower activity across the area this afternoon as a trough departs into the Rockies. High pressure will hold on through tonight and allow temperatures to dip well into the 30s across much of the area Saturday morning. Would not be out of the question to see some areas of frost or patchy fog tonight as a result, but high clouds spreading in this evening ahead of the next system may work against the latter scenario.

Attention then quickly turns to the latest and final (for now)
in a recent series of atmospheric rivers to impact the area as the next batch of warm frontal precipitation approaches the coast Saturday morning. The heaviest rain still mostly looks to remain confined north of a Portland to Tillamook line through early afternoon, slowly sagging south across the area through the afternoon and evening, with locations such as Eugene possible staying dry into Saturday evening. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a quick burst of heavy snow expected across the South Washington Cascades as precip moves in Saturday afternoon before snow levels rise above 7000 feet after midnight Sunday. Farther south, expect snow levels to rise quickly enough to limit significant winter weather impacts to the volcanic peaks in the Oregon Cascades as snow quickly transitions to rain at pass levels and below.

QPF values remain largely on track from previous forecast packages, keeping the heaviest rainfall amounts confined to northern coastal areas from roughly Lincoln County northward.
Expect another 3 to 5 inches of rain and locally higher amounts in these areas Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon, with rainfall amounts diminishing with south and eastward extent.
Will therefore likely see the biggest response on rivers draining the northern Coast Range and Willapa Hills peaking late Sunday, but guidance at this time is only showing a 15 to 30 percent for most of these rivers to reach minor flood stage.
The only river currently forecast to reach flood stage is the Grays in Wahkiakum County, WA. Precipitation gradually diminishes as the weakening AR sags southward through the area Sunday evening, with showers lingering into Monday morning in the wake of a cold front. /CB

LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Majority of WPC clusters are in agreement of upper level ridging building over the Pacific NW. As such, showers coming to an end on Monday. Then, as high pressure builds over the inland Pac NW, will see dry but cool weather for Tuesday. Models differ a bit for middle of next week, with some favoring longer duration of the high pressure and subsequent dry weather (GFS model), while others (ECMWF) favor a fast moving front with clouds and rain for Wed.
Suspect the GFS will win out, but with uncertainty in the models trends, will keep some chance of precipitation for Wed and Thu.
Again, could just as easily be dry with some offshore flow for Wed and Thu. Lets hope for the latter. /Rockey

AVIATION
Showers have all but cleared out of the area and winds have weakened. Ceilings continue to remain an issue with many sites bouncing between low end VFR and high end MVFR. Subsidence within building high pressure aloft will breakup midlevel ceilings going into this evening. A Pacific frontal system offshore will be approaching which will shift winds offshore, further aiding in the drying out of the low levels with increasing high clouds through this evening. Breezy east winds through the Columbia River Gorge around roughly 18z Saturday as the system comes closer to shore. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR/MVFR after roughly 15z along the coast and MVFR after 20z inland. Heavy rain along the coast, particularly around KAST, will reduce visibility. Southerly winds will be 20-25 kt along the coast

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected through roughly 20z. Increasing high clouds through the day as frontal system approaches. MVFR ceilings likely (30-50% chance) after 00z Sunday. -BMuhlestein

MARINE
High pressure will build across the waters Friday bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 8-10 ft remaining. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts ahead of the cold front starting around 7-10 AM Saturday and continuing through much of the day. Seas will likely build into the mid to upper teens within the persistent southwesterly flow.

High pressure will build across the waters early next week bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft Sunday afternoon and remain below Advisory threshold through midweek. -Muessle/Muhlestein

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for South Washington Cascades.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Saturday for Columbia River Bar.

Gale Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon OR to Cape Foulweather OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM-Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM- Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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Seaside
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:02 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:27 AM PST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:40 AM PST     5.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:30 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:57 PM PST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:48 PM PST     4.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seaside, 12th Avenue bridge, Necanicum River, Oregon, Tide feet

Warrenton
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:58 AM PST     2.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:02 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:26 AM PST     8.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:16 PM PST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:24 PM PST     6.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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