Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Finlayson, MN

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290559 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1159 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1158 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Updated for the 06Z Aviation discussion.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

A cold air mass remains in place across the Northland, with a shallow layer of moisture in the low-levels, which should be enough to generate some light snow or flurries across the region. Some light snow accumulations will be possible along the North Shore for Wednesday, generally an inch or less.

A weak area of high pressure, along with mid-level ridging, has helped keep any significant precipitation at bay across the region. There has been some scattered flurries due to a cold air mass, characterized by temperatures at or colder than 10 degrees C below zero, which indicates a high probability of ice crystal growth aloft. This trend looks to continue through the overnight hours tonight, with even some light accumulating snow over adjacent areas of the North Shore due to a large high pressure system developing over Ontario Canada, forcing winds to turn more northeasterly tonight. Despite a weak mid-level shortwave trough passing through tonight, little, if any, accumulating snow should result from it due to the lack of any deep moisture through the column. Rather, flurries are mainly expected across the forecast area. Overnight lows tonight will cool down to the single digits above zero north to the lower teens above zero south.

The aforementioned high pressure will translate eastward towards Quebec on Wednesday, leading to winds turning more southeasterly. This will couple with colder 850 mb temperatures, and lead to the development of some lake-effect snow bands along the North Shore. Both the deterministic guidance, as well as the high-resolution models, indicate light snow will be most likely over southern Lake county, including Silver Bay. It appears that only light snow accumulations will be possible through Wednesday evening, generally up to one inch possible near the Silver Bay area. However, these kinds of lake-convergence snow bands have been known to overachieve on snowfall amounts, so it's possible there could be higher amounts than one inch. Highs will warm up to the lower to middle 20s.

Another mid-level shortwave will enter northwest Minnesota Wednesday night, which could bring some light snow to north-central Minnesota. Some lingering lake effect snow will be possible as well over the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead. Wednesday night lows will fall back to the lower to middle teens.

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

A closed upper low meanders into northwest Minnesota on Thursday afternoon, replacing some weak upper ridging. Surface ridging will also be in play Thursday morning with a dry forecast. In the afternoon, enough forcing moves across the region to warrant some small chance pops over the south central portion of the area. The closed low moves across northern Minnesota Thursday night, then opens into a long wave trof. There is enough model differences in the QPF placement from the weak forcing with this upper low/trof to have low chance pops over the southern half of the region. Snow amounts could approach one half inch in the vicinity of the more robust snow showers. Model differences continue with the handling of upper level, as well as surface features, resulting in some low chance pops, mainly across the southern portion of the region through Friday. There is enough warm air in the late evening and Friday morning for the creation of some light freezing drizzle and have a mention. A minor glaze of ice may occur in northwest Wisconsin.

One last upper level trof moves across the area Friday night with additional low chances of snow. After this trof departs, it signals a change into a northwest flow aloft pattern for Saturday and Saturday night. Embedded impulses in this fast flow will bring spotty snow showers to much of the region through Saturday night. Sunday and Sunday night features upper level and surface ridging over the area. However, a surface low will be moving through south central Canada and its proximity to northern Minnesota warrants having some low pops. The upper level and surface ridging continue on Monday, but a mid level trof is progged to move across the region with just enough forcing for some low pops.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

Widespread cloud cover will continue blanketing the region tonight and tomorrow as another area of low pressure slowly moves into eastern MN. Conditions will remain mostly MVFR, with a few instances of dropping to IFR through 12Z. Widely scattered freezing drizzle and snow showers are possible until sunrise, mainly for DLH, HIB, and INL. Models are not forecasting the precipitation well, so exact timing and location are very difficult to predict. A small break in the clouds has opened around BRD, however clouds will fill back in as the night goes on. Winds will be mostly calm overnight, then become southerly after about 17Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 11 24 14 23 / 10 10 10 10 INL 3 23 12 25 / 10 10 10 0 BRD 12 24 15 25 / 10 10 10 10 HYR 13 27 13 27 / 10 10 10 10 ASX 13 27 15 27 / 20 10 10 10

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

UPDATE . LE SHORT TERM . JTS LONG TERM . GSF AVIATION . KL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN	65 mi	46 min	SW 4.1 G 4.1

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Hinckley Field of Dreams Airport, MN	10 mi	40 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	16°F	12°F	86%	1022 hPa
Mora Municipal Airport, MN	22 mi	20 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	10°F	6°F	85%	1022.3 hPa
Moose Lake Carlton County Airport, MN	22 mi	21 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	18°F	12°F	79%	1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K04W

Wind History from 04W (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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