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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 208 Pm Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect until 9 pm pst this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm pst this evening through Sunday afternoon...
In the main channel..
General seas..10 to 12 ft subsiding to 8 to 10 ft Sunday evening.
First ebb..Ebb current of 5.07 kt at 203 pm Saturday. Seas 10 to 12 ft.
SEcond ebb..Ebb current of 2.81 kt at 223 am Sunday. Seas 12 to 14 ft.
Third ebb..Strong ebb current of 5.63 kt at 242 pm Sunday. Seas 11 ft.

PZZ200 208 Pm Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Increasing winds and seas Saturday and Sunday. High pressure returns early next week bringing more quiet conditions across the waters through the week.

FXUS66 KPQR 100542 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 942 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

Updated Aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS
Rain continues, heavy at times, tonight into early Sunday. Showers later Sun and Mon. Then, high pressure builds across the Pac NW, with a stretch of dry weather along with some cool offshore flow.

SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Latest atmospheric river event is underway across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this afternoon as radar shows a warm frontal precipitation band spanning from roughly Tillamook to Portland to Hood River and points northward as of 2 PM Saturday. Heaviest precipitation has thus far been centered along the south WA and far north OR coast where isolated rainfall rates of up to a quarter inch per hour have been observed. Heavy snow is falling in the higher elevations of the south Washington Cascades where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through early Sunday morning. Have also observed some light snow in the vicinity of Hood River into the Upper Hood River Valley where temperatures have struggled to climb out of the low 30s this afternoon. Could continue to see some minor winter weather impacts there into this evening before temperatures warm more solidly above freezing. Have issued a Special Weather Statement to account for that possibility. Temperatures elsewhere in the Gorge have generally been warm enough to allow for all rain and expect this trend to continue into the evening. Across the rest of the Oregon Cascades, still expect snow to quickly transition to rain and thus limit winter weather concerns as snow levels rapidly climb above the passes this evening.

Rain will gradually intensify across the northern half of the area through this evening as the rain band sinks southward into the Willamette Valley and northern Oregon Coast Range. Model QPF amounts have trended upward slightly in recent runs, driving slightly more robust responses on some of the area rivers draining the Willapa Hills into the north Oregon Coast Range. A Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas, with rivers expected to trend upward this evening and then crest Sunday afternoon. A few locations on the east side of the Coast Range have also seen forecasts trend upward, but have opted to hold off on any additional products at this time as most of these locations are still forecasted to crest below flood stage. All in all, still looking at rainfall totals of 3.5 to locally as much as 6 inches for the coast into the Coast Range through Sunday, with 1 to 1.5 inches into the interior valleys. Expect points south and east to be on the lower end of these totals as the bulk of the rain will not arrive over the southern Willamette Valley until late this evening.

The atmospheric river will continue to drop south across the area and weaken through Sunday morning as a trailing cold front crosses the area, with rain becoming more showering in nature from west to east through Sunday afternoon in the post frontal environment. Expect light rain showers to linger into Monday as a weak trough crosses the region in northwest flow, wit showers winding down Monday night as high pressure build in and ushers in a potentially drier period into the middle of next week. /CB

LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Majority of WPC clusters remain in agreement on upper level ridging building over the Pacific NW early to mid next week. As such, forecast trends drier on Tuesday. Models still differ a bit for middle of next week, with some favoring longer duration of the high pressure and subsequent dry weather (GFS model), while others (ECMWF)
favor a fast moving front with clouds and light rain for Wed.
Suspect the GFS will win out, but with uncertainty in the models trends, will keep some chance of precipitation for Wed and Thu.
Again, could just as easily be dry with some offshore flow for Wed and Thu. Ensembles then continue to favor ridging and a drier solution for Friday, with guidance starting to diverge a bit more towards next weekend. -Rockey/CB

AVIATION
Moist, westerly flow aloft will continue as an atmospheric river slowly moves southward across the area. With the rain comes lowering CIGS and reduced VIS with predominately MVFR conditions expected tonight into Sunday morning. Conditions are expected to deteriorate to IFR along the coast tonight, while there is a 20-40% chance of IFR CIGS and/or VIS at inland terminals, highest chances after 16Z Sunday. Southerly winds remain breezy along the coast with gusts up to 30-40 kt ahead of the frontal passage through 12z (KAST) to 20z (KONP). LLWS will likely continue across the Willamette Valley through 14-18Z Sunday as southwest winds at 2000 ft continue around 30-40 kt while surface winds remain southeasterly.

PDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions expected as rain brings reduced VIS and ceilings continue to lower to around 1500 ft.
Around a 20-30% chance of IFR conditions after 12Z Sunday through Sunday evening. At the surface, southeast winds around 10-14 kt through Sunday morning. Expect LLWS through 16Z Sunday as southwest winds around 30-40 kt persist. /DH

MARINE
Buoy observations show the Gale Warning verifying as of 2 PM this afternoon. Buoy 46041 - Cape Elizabeth to the north is 35-40kt with steep seas and Buoy 46050 is 35 kt with seas beginning to rise. The cold front offshore will draw closer to the coastline into the evening, moving southeast across the coastal waters into early Sunday morning. A windsea will develop with steep seas before transitioning to a westerly swell overnight.
Persistent southwesterly winds over the southern waters could bring seas at buoy 46050 near 20 ft before quickly falling after winds ease. Steep and hazardous seas will linger through Sunday morning, early afternoon.

High pressure will build across the waters thereafter bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft late Sunday and remain at or below through much of the week. -BMuhlestein

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-North Oregon Coast.

WA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for South Washington Coast- Willapa Hills.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for South Washington Cascades.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for Columbia River Bar.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon OR to Cape Foulweather OR out 60 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon OR to Cape Foulweather OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM-Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM- Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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