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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 209 Am Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm pst this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from 2 pm pst this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel..
General seas..6 to 7 ft building to 12 ft Sunday morning.
First ebb..Ebb current of 2.74 kt at 135 am Saturday. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
SEcond ebb..Ebb current of 5.07 kt at 203 pm Saturday. Seas 9 to 11 ft.
Third ebb..Ebb current of 2.81 kt at 223 am Sunday. Seas 12 to 14 ft.

PZZ200 209 Am Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A warm front moves over the water Saturday morning. Increasing winds and seas on Saturday and Sunday. High pressure returns early next week.

FXUS66 KPQR 091017 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 215 AM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Rain returns today, with rain heavy at times tonight into early Sunday. Showers later Sun and Mon. Then, high pressure builds across the Pac NW, with a stretch of dry weather, along with some cool offshore flow.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)...
Increasing mid/high clouds this am, as next frontal system well offshore slowly approaches. Is rather cool across the interior, with many locations in the Willamette Valley and nearby foothills valleys in the lower to middle 30s. Add to that areas of fog and low clouds, and now have the potential for patchy icy spots. If out and about this am, motorists should be prepared for such.

Strong frontal system offshore will affect the region today through Sunday. First up, a warm front will lift up and across the region, bringing rain across far northwest corner of Oregon later this am into the afternoon. But, bulk of the rain will be across western Washington, with moderate to heavy rain across the Willapa Hills and northward towards the Olympics. Rain will spread inland across the northern zones later this am, but mainly this afternoon. With current setup, does appear areas farther to the south and east (mainly south and east of Salem) will remain dry until sometime this afternoon.
Gradients along the coast tighten up behind the warm front, with south winds gusting 35 to 45 mph along the coast, with a more exposed spots gusting to around 50 mph this evening.

Interestingly, air is cool enough that precipitation could start out as light snow or a light snow/rain mix for areas closer to Hood River as well as in the Hood River Gorge. Will be snow higher in the Cascades. But, snow levels will be on the rise today, with only minor accumulations of snow on the passes before it turns to rain. Does appear that could easily get 8 to 12 inches of snow across the south Washington Cascades, though heaviest will be higher up (generally on highest ridges/peaks, or those above 4500 feet). Current Winter Weather Advisory looks on track.

Otherwise, forecasts remain on track. Warm front lifts to the north today. But, the cold front farther offshore will slowly approach tonight. As it does, the main baroclinic zone will slowly sink southward, with heaviest precipitation slowly shifting southward as well, sitting over the Oregon Coast Range to southwest Washington.
This will give the coast and nearby Willapa Hills and Coast Range a rather hefty dose of rain, with 3 to 6 inches for this afternoon through tonight. Rivers will rise again, with a few getting close to flood stage later tonight or early Sunday. Most likely are the Naselle and Grays, as well as the Wilson and Nestucca rivers. Smaller streams will be on the rise as well. A more wider encompassing Flood Advisory for small streams will likely be needed for tonight into Sunday for the Coast, Willapa Hills, Coast Range, as well as areas inland from Portland/Vancouver metro northward across remainder of southwest Washington. Will let day shift make final determination for this possibility.

On Sunday, the cold front will shift inland later in the morning, with the steady rain giving way to showers by afternoon, though rain may linger into the afternoon in the far southeast (Linn and Lane Counties). Showers decreasing Sunday night, as cooler air shifts inland with a stabilizing air mass. /Rockey

LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Majority of WPC clusters are in agreement of upper level ridging building over the Pacific NW. As such, showers coming to an end on Monday. Then, as high pressure builds over the inland Pac NW, will see dry but cool weather for Tuesday. Models differ a bit for middle of next week, with some favoring longer duration of the high pressure and subsequent dry weather (GFS model), while others (ECMWF) favor a fast moving front with clouds and rain for Wed.
Suspect the GFS will win out, but with uncertainty in the models trends, will keep some chance of precipitation for Wed and Thu.
Again, could just as easily be dry with some offshore flow for Wed and Thu. Lets hope for the latter. /Rockey

AVIATION
High clouds remain which is hindering radiational cooling and saturation. Some areas that are experiencing cloud breaks are reaching at or below freezing temperatures. Fog is also starting to form in some inland terminals. Generally through the Willamette Valley from KSLE southward, and at more fog-prone airports like K77S and KHIO. Have included dense freezing fog in areas that are, or will be reaching freezing temperatures. Fog will be patchy, and will be variable at times. CIGS are more widespread LIFR , but where fog has not formed, seeing VFR conditions. Yet another strong front will push inland today bringing gusty winds and moderate rain. The coastal airports have around a 75% chance of seeing gusts to 45 kt, with a 30% chance of gusts to 50 kt along the coast north of KTMK. Will say that LLWS is possible, even if winds are not strong at the surface elsewhere as winds at 2000 ft will range from 35-45 kt. Gusty winds will moderate precipitation will reduce visibility at times.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected through roughly 20Z as the front approaches from the west. Low probability of fog this morning due to cloud cover, but a few0005 layer may saturate if skies clear and saturation can occur. Not expecting freezing fog. MVFR ceiling chances likely (50-80% chance) after 00z Sunday.
Increasing potential for directional LLWS near the Gorge after about 20Z Sat as surface east wind and southerly winds around 2000 ft. Forecast soundings have a fairly wide spread in the range of 30 to 45 kt at 2000 ft, so forecast confidence in meeting criteria in moderate at this time. -Muessle/MH

MARINE
A strengthening front will arrive late morning/early afternoon on Saturday. Will see a gradual increase in southerly winds, eventually reaching 20-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. One slight shift in the forecast occurs on Sunday morning as the front shifts inland. The pressure gradient will increase as high pressure builds in behind the front. Breezier winds will persist in the inner waters Sunday morning, though a coastal jet is not forecast. Seas too will respond to the incoming front as wind waves increase. Seas will likely build into the mid to upper teens within the persistent southwesterly flow.

High pressure will build across the waters early next week bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft Sunday but with a period around 13 seconds, there will be a period of hazardous seas trailing the Gale Warning that is in effect. Minimal impacts through the week.
-Muessle/Muhlestein

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday evening for Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-North Oregon Coast.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Sunday for South Washington Cascades.

Flood Watch from noon PST today through Sunday morning for South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for Columbia River Bar.

Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening for

Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon OR to Cape Foulweather OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM- Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM-Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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Astoria (Port Docks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:00 AM PST     2.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:11 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:07 AM PST     8.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:18 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:17 PM PST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:24 PM PST     6.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Astoria (Port Docks), Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

Chinook
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Sat -- 03:11 AM PST     3.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:45 AM PST     8.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:19 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:28 PM PST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:02 PM PST     6.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chinook, Baker Bay, Columbia River, Washington, Tide feet

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