Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skamokawa Valley, WA
February 8, 2025 11:32 AM PST (19:32 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:22 AM Sunset 5:29 PM Moonrise 1:05 PM Moonset 5:22 AM |
PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 643 Am Pst Sat Feb 8 2025
In the main channel -
General seas - 4 ft building to 5 ft Sunday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.02 kt at 101 am Saturday. Seas 4 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 5.34 kt at 126 pm Saturday. Seas 5 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 2.36 kt at 205 am Sunday. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
PZZ200 643 Am Pst Sat Feb 8 2025
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure returns with northerly flow and relatively benign conditions through the weekend. Offshore flow increases by the middle of next week.

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Skamokawa, Steamboat Slough, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS, Tide feet
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Cathlamet, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS, Tide feet
Area Discussion for Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 081805 AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1005 AM PST Sat Feb 8 2025
UPDATE
Scattered light shower activity continues across the region this morning primarily pinned to terrain features like the coast range, Cascades, and their respective foothills areas.
Assessing surface observations and traffic cameras show the light snow and/or a rain/snow mix which had earlier made it down towards the surface, but only stuck above ~800ft, (or at the surface in the Gorge) has begun to wane as both temperatures and snow levels rise. So the Winter Weather Advisories were cancelled as a result, although additional light snow is likely above 1500-2000ft the remainder of the day. Otherwise, conditions generally trend calmer and drier the next few days with all eyes fixated on the potential for a complex winter weather set-up focused around the middle of end of next week.
Thus far the latest 12z guidance has added little in the way of confidence as to how impacts will materialize. The previous discussion remains below. -Schuldt
SYNOPSIS
Scattered snow showers will continue over southwest WA and northwest OR today. Becoming colder early next week as offshore flow develops, with high confidence for below normal temps through Feb. 13-14. Main concern lies with a potential large-scale winter weather event for the lowlands and the mountains Feb. 12-14, bringing increasing chances for accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain. While confidence is growing at least some wintry precipitation will occur over much of the area, confidence remains low regarding exact timing, precip type and precip amounts, which will also make the difference between minor impacts versus major impacts.
SHORT TERM
Now through Tuesday Night...Simulated reflectivity guidance from hi-res model guidance shows showers becoming much more isolated in coverage Saturday evening with very little showery activity Saturday night into Monday.
Overall, most locations will be dry Saturday night through at least Tuesday night aside from a stray light shower or two. That said, temperatures will become progressively colder Sunday night onward as light to moderate offshore flow develops. This will help advect colder temperatures east of the Cascades into western WA/OR, coldest Monday night and Tuesday night when models and their ensembles continue to show an arctic cold front dropping from B.C. into central WA and central OR. The NBM continues to show fairly little model spread regarding low temps in the lowlands both nights, with the 10th percentile in the upper teens to lower 20s and the 90th percentile in the mid to upper 20s. This means confidence is high for widespread low temps in the 20s or colder with a high likelihood for cold weather advisories beginning Monday night, but potentially as early as Sunday night. The high Cascades will likely see low temps in the single digits. Even high temps will struggle to warm out of the 30s in the lowlands. The colder temps will bring an increased risk for hypothermia and frostbite for anyone who is exposed to the cold for prolonged periods of time without adequate winter clothing on. There will also be an increased risk for pipes that are not insulated well to burst. Lastly, the colder airmass in place will also set the stage for a potential large-scale winter weather event beginning either Wednesday, Wednesday night, or Thursday (most likely Wednesday night or Thursday morning). Refer to the long term discussion below for confidence levels, details, and potential impacts. -TK
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Friday night...The long term forecast continues to be highlighted by abnormally cold temperatures and the potential for snow, sleet and/or freezing rain down to the valley floor, including coastal areas north of Florence. With high confidence for a cold airmass to be locked in place with below freezing temps down to the surface, we will need to watch closely for potential wintry precipitation when the next low pressure system eventually moves inland. This is especially the case Wednesday night through Friday when a vast majority of ensemble guidance shows incoming precipitation and NBM 6-hourly PoPs increase to 60-80%.
It appears the incoming precipitation will be in response to a broad surface low over the northeast Pacific with an associated frontal system moving towards the coast. Ensemble guidance still depicts a decent amounts of spread in the strength and track of this low, placing it as far north as Vancouver Island or as far south a Northern California. It is worth noting the ensemble means from the GEFS and EPS do bring this low pressure right into the central or northern Oregon coast, a pattern conducive to winter weather for much of the area. In the end, the exact route this surface low takes and the amount of moisture that comes with it will dictate our impacts regionally. If this low tracks near or just to the south of Astoria (current ensemble mean), there will be a high likelihood for a winter storm across southwest WA and northwest OR due to snow, sleet and/or freezing rain. If this low tracks well north of Astoria, say from Hoquiam northward, precip will likely fall as rain for the coast and Willamette Valley. Could see a brief period with a wintry mix in the Portland Metro, sheltered Cascade Valleys, and Columbia River Gorge in this scenario before winds quickly switch southerly at the surface. This southerly wind reversal would bring in warmer temperatures and thus limiting impacts.
Nevertheless, overall confidence is medium for at least some travel impacts due to wintry precipitation, however confidence remains low in regards to the exact timing, precip type and precip amounts. This will make all the difference between minor impacts versus major impacts. It is worth noting it is still possible we will see very little to no impacts at all if the aforementioned low tracks too far to the north, however this is not the most likely outcome at this time as there are more model ensemble members tracking the low farther south rather than well to the north. Will note that the vast majority of ensemble members from the GEFS/EPS/CMC are not showing huge snow or ice amounts as QPF is not overly high, however there are a small handful of ensemble members (5-10%) showing snow amounts around 4-6 inches of snow or more (worst case scenario). NBM probabilities seem to reflect this well, showing around a 5% chance or less for 4 inches of snow or more. Will mention NBM probabilities for freezing rain seem too low given the potential for a warm front bringing a layer of warm air aloft, which would be moving over a layer of sub-freezing temps at the surface (at least to the north of Eugene where confidence is high surface temps will still be below freezing when precip moves in). LREF probabilities seem more reasonable, showing a 15-30% chance for ice accumulations over 0.1 inches, except 40-50% in the central Willamette Valley and 5-10% in the southern Willamette Valley. For now, the forecast is worth monitoring over the coming days to see how incoming guidance trends towards a firmer solution, especially if you have upcoming travel plans next week. -TK
AVIATION
Mostly MVFR this morning, with IFR CIGs at a few locations (KKLS, KSPB, and KHIO). Rain showers over the area begin to dissipate, expected to end by 21-23Z Saturday. Will see MVFR conditions through most of the TAF period for inland terminals, with best chances to improve to VFR between 00-06Z Sunday (50-70% probability to improve to VFR). Once the coast improves to VFR late this morning, conditions should remain VFR along the coast through the TAF period (70-80% probability to stay VFR). Winds throughout the airspace are expected to remain under 10 kt and primarily southerly in the morning and westerly to northwesterly by the afternoon. By 06Z Sunday, winds will weaken to under 5 kt, with variable directions inland and easterly along the coast.
Could see IFR conditions at a few terminals such as KHIO and KEUG by 14Z Sunday (15-25% probability to see IFR VIS).
PDX AND APPROACHES.. MVFR conditions will continue through this morning, with rain showers dissipating. Conditions will likely improve to VFR by 20-22Z (50-70% probability) but could persist over KTTD an hour or two longer. Southerly winds 5-10 kts will weaken and shift westerly this afternoon.
~Hall
MARINE
Conditions into early next week are expected to be relatively benign as high pressure persists offshore with northerly winds and seas around 4 to 6 ft. As the high pressure over the waters beings to weaken, offshore flow is expected to increase Tuesday into Wednesday next week. -Batz/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1005 AM PST Sat Feb 8 2025
UPDATE
Scattered light shower activity continues across the region this morning primarily pinned to terrain features like the coast range, Cascades, and their respective foothills areas.
Assessing surface observations and traffic cameras show the light snow and/or a rain/snow mix which had earlier made it down towards the surface, but only stuck above ~800ft, (or at the surface in the Gorge) has begun to wane as both temperatures and snow levels rise. So the Winter Weather Advisories were cancelled as a result, although additional light snow is likely above 1500-2000ft the remainder of the day. Otherwise, conditions generally trend calmer and drier the next few days with all eyes fixated on the potential for a complex winter weather set-up focused around the middle of end of next week.
Thus far the latest 12z guidance has added little in the way of confidence as to how impacts will materialize. The previous discussion remains below. -Schuldt
SYNOPSIS
Scattered snow showers will continue over southwest WA and northwest OR today. Becoming colder early next week as offshore flow develops, with high confidence for below normal temps through Feb. 13-14. Main concern lies with a potential large-scale winter weather event for the lowlands and the mountains Feb. 12-14, bringing increasing chances for accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain. While confidence is growing at least some wintry precipitation will occur over much of the area, confidence remains low regarding exact timing, precip type and precip amounts, which will also make the difference between minor impacts versus major impacts.
SHORT TERM
Now through Tuesday Night...Simulated reflectivity guidance from hi-res model guidance shows showers becoming much more isolated in coverage Saturday evening with very little showery activity Saturday night into Monday.
Overall, most locations will be dry Saturday night through at least Tuesday night aside from a stray light shower or two. That said, temperatures will become progressively colder Sunday night onward as light to moderate offshore flow develops. This will help advect colder temperatures east of the Cascades into western WA/OR, coldest Monday night and Tuesday night when models and their ensembles continue to show an arctic cold front dropping from B.C. into central WA and central OR. The NBM continues to show fairly little model spread regarding low temps in the lowlands both nights, with the 10th percentile in the upper teens to lower 20s and the 90th percentile in the mid to upper 20s. This means confidence is high for widespread low temps in the 20s or colder with a high likelihood for cold weather advisories beginning Monday night, but potentially as early as Sunday night. The high Cascades will likely see low temps in the single digits. Even high temps will struggle to warm out of the 30s in the lowlands. The colder temps will bring an increased risk for hypothermia and frostbite for anyone who is exposed to the cold for prolonged periods of time without adequate winter clothing on. There will also be an increased risk for pipes that are not insulated well to burst. Lastly, the colder airmass in place will also set the stage for a potential large-scale winter weather event beginning either Wednesday, Wednesday night, or Thursday (most likely Wednesday night or Thursday morning). Refer to the long term discussion below for confidence levels, details, and potential impacts. -TK
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Friday night...The long term forecast continues to be highlighted by abnormally cold temperatures and the potential for snow, sleet and/or freezing rain down to the valley floor, including coastal areas north of Florence. With high confidence for a cold airmass to be locked in place with below freezing temps down to the surface, we will need to watch closely for potential wintry precipitation when the next low pressure system eventually moves inland. This is especially the case Wednesday night through Friday when a vast majority of ensemble guidance shows incoming precipitation and NBM 6-hourly PoPs increase to 60-80%.
It appears the incoming precipitation will be in response to a broad surface low over the northeast Pacific with an associated frontal system moving towards the coast. Ensemble guidance still depicts a decent amounts of spread in the strength and track of this low, placing it as far north as Vancouver Island or as far south a Northern California. It is worth noting the ensemble means from the GEFS and EPS do bring this low pressure right into the central or northern Oregon coast, a pattern conducive to winter weather for much of the area. In the end, the exact route this surface low takes and the amount of moisture that comes with it will dictate our impacts regionally. If this low tracks near or just to the south of Astoria (current ensemble mean), there will be a high likelihood for a winter storm across southwest WA and northwest OR due to snow, sleet and/or freezing rain. If this low tracks well north of Astoria, say from Hoquiam northward, precip will likely fall as rain for the coast and Willamette Valley. Could see a brief period with a wintry mix in the Portland Metro, sheltered Cascade Valleys, and Columbia River Gorge in this scenario before winds quickly switch southerly at the surface. This southerly wind reversal would bring in warmer temperatures and thus limiting impacts.
Nevertheless, overall confidence is medium for at least some travel impacts due to wintry precipitation, however confidence remains low in regards to the exact timing, precip type and precip amounts. This will make all the difference between minor impacts versus major impacts. It is worth noting it is still possible we will see very little to no impacts at all if the aforementioned low tracks too far to the north, however this is not the most likely outcome at this time as there are more model ensemble members tracking the low farther south rather than well to the north. Will note that the vast majority of ensemble members from the GEFS/EPS/CMC are not showing huge snow or ice amounts as QPF is not overly high, however there are a small handful of ensemble members (5-10%) showing snow amounts around 4-6 inches of snow or more (worst case scenario). NBM probabilities seem to reflect this well, showing around a 5% chance or less for 4 inches of snow or more. Will mention NBM probabilities for freezing rain seem too low given the potential for a warm front bringing a layer of warm air aloft, which would be moving over a layer of sub-freezing temps at the surface (at least to the north of Eugene where confidence is high surface temps will still be below freezing when precip moves in). LREF probabilities seem more reasonable, showing a 15-30% chance for ice accumulations over 0.1 inches, except 40-50% in the central Willamette Valley and 5-10% in the southern Willamette Valley. For now, the forecast is worth monitoring over the coming days to see how incoming guidance trends towards a firmer solution, especially if you have upcoming travel plans next week. -TK
AVIATION
Mostly MVFR this morning, with IFR CIGs at a few locations (KKLS, KSPB, and KHIO). Rain showers over the area begin to dissipate, expected to end by 21-23Z Saturday. Will see MVFR conditions through most of the TAF period for inland terminals, with best chances to improve to VFR between 00-06Z Sunday (50-70% probability to improve to VFR). Once the coast improves to VFR late this morning, conditions should remain VFR along the coast through the TAF period (70-80% probability to stay VFR). Winds throughout the airspace are expected to remain under 10 kt and primarily southerly in the morning and westerly to northwesterly by the afternoon. By 06Z Sunday, winds will weaken to under 5 kt, with variable directions inland and easterly along the coast.
Could see IFR conditions at a few terminals such as KHIO and KEUG by 14Z Sunday (15-25% probability to see IFR VIS).
PDX AND APPROACHES.. MVFR conditions will continue through this morning, with rain showers dissipating. Conditions will likely improve to VFR by 20-22Z (50-70% probability) but could persist over KTTD an hour or two longer. Southerly winds 5-10 kts will weaken and shift westerly this afternoon.
~Hall
MARINE
Conditions into early next week are expected to be relatively benign as high pressure persists offshore with northerly winds and seas around 4 to 6 ft. As the high pressure over the waters beings to weaken, offshore flow is expected to increase Tuesday into Wednesday next week. -Batz/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA | 29 mi | 45 min | 41°F | 30.36 | ||||
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 | 36 mi | 37 min | 46°F | 4 ft | ||||
KLMW1 | 38 mi | 45 min | 30.34 | |||||
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA | 41 mi | 45 min | 38°F | 45°F | 30.37 |
Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KAST
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Wind History Graph: AST
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Pacific Northwest
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Portland, OR,

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