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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 851 Am Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst this afternoon...
In the main channel..
General seas..10 ft subsiding to 6 ft Monday afternoon.
First ebb..Strong ebb current of 5.63 kt at 242 pm Sunday. Seas 11 ft.
SEcond ebb..Ebb current of 2.9 kt at 308 am Monday. Seas 7 ft.
Third ebb..Strong ebb current of 6.12 kt at 320 pm Monday. Seas 7 ft.

PZZ200 851 Am Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Remnants of a warm front through Sunday. Decreasing winds and seas as high pressure builds over the area through mid-week.

FXUS66 KPQR 101713 AAB AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 912 AM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Updated aviation discussion and hazards.

SYNOPSIS
Rain, heavy at times this morning. Then, as cold front moves onshore, rain will decrease from north to south across the region. Showers tonight into Monday. Then, high pressure builds across the Pac NW, with a stretch of dry weather along with some cool offshore flow for Tue into Wed. But, will see a front bring some rain back to region later Wed into Thu.

SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Cold front well offshore will continue to slowly move towards the coast this am. At 2 am, NOAA satellite imagery showing baroclinic zone and embedded cold front sitting over western Washington draping back over far northwest Oregon, then extending offshore to west and southwest of Oregon to a low located near 39N 138W. The cold front over western Washington and off Oregon coast will sag inland early this am, with rain decreasing over the south Washington coast and Willapa Hills after daybreak. But, the front stalls for a bit over northwest Oregon and offshore as the low well to the southwest approaches. This low should push onshore over western central Oregon (between Newport and North Bend) early this afternoon. Once that happens, the rain shield will shift farther southward. By noon, bulk of the rain will be south of Newport to Salem line, with that shifting farther to the south/east this afternoon. Bulk of the rain will be to east/southeast of a Eugene to Santiam Pass this evening.

Quite a bit of moisture has been embedded in the air mass, as remains of an older atmospheric river that was over the north Pac last week.
But, still potent enough to produce hefty shot of rainfall across the region. As of 2 am Sunday, have seen 1 to 2 inches of rain have fallen along the coast, and with a bit more over the nearby coastal mtns. Still expecting another 1 to 3 inches along the coast/coastal mtns, mostly to south of the Columbia River. Farther inland, generally 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain for the lowlands (Willamette Valley and Cowlitz Valley), with 1 to 3 inches across the Cascades.
While still to early to end the Flood Watch (for south WA Coast/Willapa Hills and the north Oregon Coast/Coast Range). But, at moment, looks like a rivers will remain below flood stage. That said, they will still be running rather full, so use caution if near rivers, and be ready for localized low spot flooding due to standing/ponding of water in low spots.

Snow levels are high this am, mostly above 5000 ft. So, will end Winter Weather Advisory in the south WA Cascades.

Rain decreasing this evening, with most areas generally more showery in nature. Cooler air aloft will push inland tonight and Monday. As such, will maintain unstable air mass, with showers during that time.
Snow level holding at or above 6000 ft today, then lowering to 4000 ft overnight, and holding at 3500 to 4000 ft on Monday. But with precipitation more showery in nature, snowfall will be more variable.
That said, looks like 2 to 6 inches of new snow for the Cascades later tonight and Monday. Will not be enough to support any winter weather advisories, so will not issue such.

High pressure offshore will build inland late Monday night, and sit over the inland Pac NW on Tuesday. Lingering showers end Monday evening. Then, stable and cool air mass in place, with areas of fog expected Monday night into Tue am. As the high builds inland on Tue, will see light to moderate offshore flow develop. This will maintain dry weather, with seasonal temperatures. /Rockey

LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Majority of WPC clusters remain in agreement on upper level ridging building over the Pacific NW lingers into Wed. However, does appear ridge not strong enough to completely block any incoming fronts. As such, GFS and ECMWF are showing a front pushing into the region later Wed and Wed night. Does not appear to be a soaker, as system is weakening as it approaches. Rainiest period appears to be Wed night. Afterwards, unsettled weather continues, with mix of clouds and sunshine, along with some showers. Snow level rather steady, holding at 4500 to 5000 ft for rest of next week. /Rockey

AVIATION
Variable conditions across the region as a frontal system over Vancouver Island continues to bring widespread rain and lowering ceilings to the region. The cold front is till offshore and will continue to move southeast towards the coastline throughout the day. Widespread rain with LLWS likely, especially around KPDX and KTTD due to westerly flow aloft, and easterly flow at the surface. As the front shifts inland after roughly 10z Monday, showers will form behind it with colder air aloft. Much of the model guidance maintained lowered ceilings between IFR and MVFR for all terminals through 18z Monday.

*KEUG currently is missing visibility observations between 06Z-15Z. Because of this, visibility forecast is influenced by area observations. *

PDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR through the next 24 hours with a 30-40% chance of IFR CIGs mixed into the forecast. Winds will ease in the post frontal environment but scattered showers will continue.
Possible LLWS through the early parts of the forecast due to westerly winds aloft.

MARINE
Gale force winds are dissipating this morning so have allowed for the Gale Warning to expire. Winds will continue to slowly ease from north to south with the south-central waters holding onto the Gales for just a few more hours. As they ease, will see hazardous seas as the leading hazard. High pressure builds in Monday which will bring a period of much more settled weather. Seas of 12-16 ft at 13 seconds will ease to near 9 ft by early Monday morning. Seas will ease further on Tuesday. Winds will become 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt early Monday, where they will remain through late Tuesday. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch until 7 PM PST this evening for Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-North Oregon Coast.

WA...Flood Watch until 10 AM PST this morning for South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Columbia River Bar.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

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Harrington Point
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Sun -- 05:24 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:40 AM PST     2.98 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:10 AM PST     8.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:41 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:55 PM PST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harrington Point, Columbia River, Washington, Tide feet

Knappa
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:01 AM PST     6.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM PST     2.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:18 AM PST     8.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:41 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:01 PM PST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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