Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chinook, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:19PM Friday September 20, 2019 2:55 AM PDT (09:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 12:30PM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 231 Am Pdt Fri Sep 20 2019
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 4 ft through Saturday morning. - first ebb...around 9 am Friday. Seas to 5 ft. - second ebb...around 930 pm Friday. Seas to 5 ft. - third ebb...around 10 am Saturday. Seas to 5 ft.
PZZ200 231 Am Pdt Fri Sep 20 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will remain offshore through Saturday. A cold front will move southeast across the coastal waters late Saturday night through midday Sunday. High pressure returns to the waters by Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chinook, WA
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location: 46.27, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 200903
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
202 am pdt Fri sep 20 2019

Synopsis A weak frontal system will bring plenty of clouds and
some spotty light rain to SW washington and NW oregon today, with
temperatures remaining a little below normal. High pressure will
likely result in less clouds and slightly warmer temps Saturday,
especially in the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase again
Saturday night, ahead of a cold front that will spread more rain
across the forecast area Sunday. After what may be the coolest night
so far this season Sunday night, dry and mild weather is likely
Monday. Additional frontal systems may bring more wet weather later
in the week.

Short term Today through Sunday... A weak warm front aloft has been
providing just enough lift overnight to squeeze out some light rain,
primarily east of interstate 5. This area of mid-level frontogenesis
is already moving into the cascades early this morning, shifting the
better rain chances eastward. While the best forcing aloft races
eastward today, a few showers will still be possible in shallow
instability as what's left of the surface cold front moves onshore
today, similar to what's depicted by the 06z NAM 4 km nest model.

Instability appears to be far too shallow for any thunderstorms
today.

Higher pressure will build into the region tonight, decreasing the
chance of showers for most of the forecast area. However, the
lingering moist low-level air mass combined with onshore flow may
still lead to some showers overnight in the S wa cascades and across
the western columbia gorge. Despite some cloud cover, valley fog will
be possible tonight Sat morning as ground moisture remains quite high
for september. Morning fog low clouds should give way to at least
some sunbreaks Saturday afternoon, potentially allowing temperatures
to break into the 70s for the inland valleys.

Higher clouds will be on the increase from the north and west
Saturday night as our next frontal system approaches from the
pacific. Rain associated with this system will likely begin to spread
onshore before dawn Sunday, then across the forecast area during the
day Sunday. Rainfall amounts appear modest with this system compared
to the last two, with most of the jet energy punching into the back
side of the associated upper trough rather than being ahead of it.

Post-frontal showers may become fairly strong Sunday afternoon as a
cold pool aloft of around -20 deg c at 500 mb moves through. However,
some models suggest fairly quick capping developing near 700 mb
Sunday evening, which should bring a quick end to any deeper
convection that may develop Sunday. Weagle

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday... Any deeper convection
which develops behind our cold front Sunday will likely come to a
quick end Sunday night as some models show a capping inversion
developing near 700 mb. Increasingly northerly flow aloft will
probably result in some clearing Sunday night, which may allow
temperatures to fall deep into the 40s for all but the more urban and
coastal areas for Monday morning. Indeed this may be the coolest
night of the season so far, and we undercut nbm temperatures by a few
degrees, opting instead for values closer to the 00z ec ensemble
mean. High pressure, weak mixing, and clearing skies may also raise
the possibility of some locally dense fog Sun night Mon morning. Once
low clouds fog clear Monday, there should be plenty of sunshine
Monday afternoon with temperatures rebounding to near 70 degrees for
the inland valleys.

One challenge with the long term forecast lies in how the
numerical models are handling the ridge. In previous runs it has
been more amplified leading to clearer, drier and warmer weather.

However in more recent runs, several disturbances over canada have
begun to shift southward causing the ridge to flatten. The
flattening will increase a chance of several shortwaves passing
through the ridge and bringing spouts of rain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Weagle muessle

Aviation North flow aloft and onshore low-level flow over the
region early this morning. Upper level disturbance within the
flow will continue moving through the region this morning.

PrimarilyVFR at 09z, but localized MVFR exists. Expect
increasing MVFR conditions through sunrise, with CIGS generally
015 to 025. Conditions gradually improve by the afternoon, but
will be low-endVFR for the most part. Cannot rule out areas of
MVFR persisting into the afternoon, especially for the coastal
taf sites. High pressure moves over the area Fri night and sat
morning. Thus, would anticipate areas of ifr to MVFR along the
coast between 03z and 06z Sat and then spreading into the
interior valleys early Sat morning.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions at the terminal and vicinity
as of 09z. Expect conditions to lower into MVFR around 12z and
continue through the morning. CIGS generally 040-050 in the
afternoon. MVFR, possibly even ifr, returns late Fri night.

Weishaar

Marine Surface high pressure centered offshore will result in
northwest to north wind 15 kt or less over the waters through
sat. Latest model runs in good agreement with the next frontal
system. However, last couple of runs show slightly lower boundary
layer wind speeds, with a short period of 20-25 kt gusts with the
front Sun morning. Slightly stronger post-frontal northwest wind
develops Sun afternoon and then weakens Sun night and mon.

Stronger northwest wind returns mid to late next week.

Seas 4 to 6 ft will be the norm through Sat evening. The cold
front Sunday will boost seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Latest
guidance shows a west to northwest fetch developing in the ne
pacific Mon night or Tue and continuing into the latter half of
the week. Seas 11 to 14 ft are likely Tue through thu. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 10 mi56 min 64°F5 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 11 mi56 min WNW 5.1 G 8 61°F 67°F1018.9 hPa (+0.3)
46096 12 mi76 min 61°F
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi66 min NW 7.8 G 12 61°F 61°F5 ft1019.7 hPa (+0.0)56°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 30 mi56 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 58°F 64°F1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 38 mi56 min 62°F6 ft
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 44 mi56 min 62°F6 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 45 mi80 min NNW 11 G 13 59°F 63°F1018.7 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 49 mi56 min 63°F1019.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR8 mi61 minSW 310.00 miOvercast59°F55°F90%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4E3E3SE3Calm--CalmN5N4W9
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1 day agoCalmSE3E5CalmS3CalmSE3Calm4--N6N10NW9NW11NW12NW11NW8NW9NW7NW5CalmSE3SE4Calm
2 days agoSE7SE6------SE12S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Columbia River entrance (N. Jetty), Washington
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Columbia River entrance (N. Jetty)
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Fri -- 05:32 AM PDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:36 AM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:52 PM PDT     6.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:40 PM PDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.62.63.74.54.94.94.53.72.92.42.32.73.64.75.86.56.76.35.33.82.31.20.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.