Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ilwaco, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday December 14, 2019 11:39 AM PST (19:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:11PMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 855 Am Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...11 to 13 ft early this morning gradually decreasing today to 8 to 10 ft by late tonight. - first ebb...very strong. Around 6 pm Saturday. Seas near 15 ft with breakers. - second ebb...around 645 am Sunday. Seas near 11 ft.
PZZ200 855 Am Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak surface low will move southeastward towards the oregon/california border today. Weak high pressure shifts across the waters on Sunday. Offshore flow will develop early next week before a series of fronts bring increasing winds and seas during the latter half of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ilwaco, WA
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location: 46.3, -124.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 141709 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 908 AM PST Sat Dec 14 2019

Updated Short Term and Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Northwest flow aloft over the forecast area through the weekend will result in a continued chance of light precipitation. High pressure builds offshore Sunday night and gradually shifts toward the coast Monday. The high pressure shifts east of the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. A more progressive and wetter pattern is expected for the latter half of next week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Monday (UPDATED) . Morning water vapor imagery showed the baroclinic boundary that was over southern Oregon last night had sagged south over central California and Nevada. An upper level trough was seen near 45N 130W. The 12Z NAM indicated a surface trough moving inside 130W. KRTX dual-pol doppler radar showed scattered precipitation over the area this morning. Models do suggest some isentropic lift along the 290K surface this afternoon as the trough approaches the coast. Latest models take the brunt of the dynamics toward southwest Oregon and northern California, but some of the higher res models hint at a deformation band-type feature lingering over the north part of the CWA this afternoon into the evening. The current forecast has a mention of thunderstorms over the coastal waters west of Newport this afternoon. Not completely sold on this as the 12Z HREF shows minimal to no probability on its 4-hr product. There will be ample low level moisture and stability tonight and Sun morning for fog and stratus across much the interior lowlands. An upper level ridge builds offshore Sunday and continues to build through Monday in response to a deepening trough associated with a low over the Aleutians. Most models are now showing a weak warm front that'll brush the coastal areas late Sunday and Monday. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Above-average forecast confidence in the first half of the extended period. The 12Z operational runs and respective ensembles are in good agreement with the upper ridge slowly moving across the Pac NW early next week. Like with recent systems the energy of this system is splitting and headed toward offshore of California. 00Z runs of the GFS and Canadian are more progressive in bringing pcpn to the area, while the ECMWF splits the energy to the north and south of the forecast area for lower chances of pcpn.

Forecast confidence lowers Wed through Fri. However, there is reasonable confidence that a return to a more progressive and wetter pattern is in store for the latter half of next week. Models show a more consolidated jet stream directed at Oregon and northern California beginning Wed night. Again, it appears southwest Oregon and northern California will be the more favored QPF areas. Model 1000-500 mb thickness values valid Fri are expected to be near 537 dm across SW Washington to the mid 540s for Lane County. Thus, snow levels will hover near to just below the passes across the north and near the passes in the Central Cascades. /26 Weishaar

AVIATION. A weakly stable low level atmosphere and light winds are leading to plenty of low clouds scattered about the region this morning. This has led to a mix of VFR, MVFR and IFR conditions across the area this morning. There has been some general improvement in cigs since 15z, with modest southerly flow allowing earlier IFR cigs to lift into MVFR or even VFR. Expect a mix of MVFR and VFR to prevail through the remainder of this afternoon, with MVFR possibly becoming more widespread along the Oregon Coast as weak low pressure brushes the coast with occasional rain or drizzle. Passing mid and high level clouds this evening should temporarily delay the onset of IFR conditions, but light winds and lingering low level moisture should allow fog and/or low clouds to eventually develop. This should result in conditions trending towards predominantly IFR and LIFR thresholds between 03-12z Sunday where conditions will likely then hold steady through ~18z Sunday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mix of IFR and MVFR conditions prevail around the PDX metro area this morning. Improvement to MVFR and possible VFR can be expected by 19z as cigs lift to around 030-040 for the afternoon. Passing high clouds this evening should temporarily delay the onset of IFR conditions, but light winds and lingering low level moisture should allow fog and/or low clouds to eventually develop. This should result in conditions trending towards predominantly IFR and LIFR between 03-12z Sunday where conditions will likely then hold steady through ~18z Sunday. Weagle/Neuman

MARINE. A westerly swell continues to bring elevated seas to the waters early this morning. Expect seas to continue to trend downward today and will likely drop below 10 ft either this afternoon or evening. However, would not be surprised to see periodic stretches of 10 ft even into early Sunday, but will see how wave height trends play out at buoys today before extending the Small Craft Advisory any further in time. A couple fronts will then push across the waters this week or at least approach close enough to the region to bring bouts of gusty southerly winds to the waters. There continue to be enough fluctuations in the models that a blend of models was used in the official forecast to show several days of unsettled weather are in store. There is potential for Gale Force winds Wednesday or Thursday depending on the model scenario, but again confidence in any particular scenario is low at this point. /Neuman

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 8 mi39 min 48°F9 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 15 mi51 min E 2.9 G 8 1015.9 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 26 mi49 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 48°F 49°F14 ft1015.9 hPa (+0.0)42°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 28 mi57 min E 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 48°F1016.3 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 35 mi39 min 49°F14 ft
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 40 mi69 min 48°F11 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 42 mi63 min ESE 4.1 G 6 42°F 47°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR13 mi44 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F43°F96%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5CalmN4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE3SE3E3N4CalmSE3CalmSE3E3SE3E3S3CalmE3CalmE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Ilwaco, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Adams., Columbia River, Oregon
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Point Adams.
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:47 AM PST     7.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 AM PST     3.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:40 PM PST     9.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:40 PM PST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.66.27.37.56.95.74.63.73.545.26.88.39.29.38.56.74.42.20.5-0.5-0.70.11.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.