Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Packwood, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:11PM Friday October 18, 2019 4:45 PM PDT (23:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 11:19AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 257 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm pdt this evening...
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sun..S wind to 10 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..S wind 10 to 20 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Mon..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..Variable wind to 10 kt becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 257 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Weather and seas will remain active into next week as additional systems move through the waters. Hazardous conditions are possible from time to time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Packwood, WA
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location: 46.39, -121.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 182247
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
347 pm pdt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis An off and on rainy pattern can be expected to
continue through the weekend as a series of weather systems moves
through the pacific northwest. Snow will fall in the high cascades,
with snow levels lowering below pass levels Saturday during snow
showers. Periodic chances for rain continue into the early part
of next week, then drier weather appears likely in the second
half of the week.

Short term Friday afternoon through Monday... Starting out with
widespread showers this afternoon as a shortwaves develops and
approaches. Models agree on deeper moisture moving in late this
evening, with increasing stratiform rain which may be heavy at
times. However, projected rainfall amounts do not appear
sufficient for a long enough period of time to pose a threat for
river flooding.

In the cascades, snow levels will come up a bit initially with the
precipitation overnight, rising to 5500-6000 ft. Behind the
shortwave on Saturday, snow levels drop again, below pass level,
to around 4500 ft, but by then the area will be in a more showery
pattern and moisture won't be quite as abundant. Areas above the
snow level tonight will see significant snowfall accumulation, so
have kept the winter storms warnings in place as is.

A surface low currently seen on satellite around 45n, 133w will
continue to develop through today and move onshore near the
central oregon coast tonight. Pressure rises behind the low
coupled with a tightened pressure gradient due to a developing
surface trough to the north will create windy conditions across
the entire forecast area late tonight into Saturday morning.

Winds are likely to be strongest south of the initial low track.

Expect isolated wind impacts due to fully leafed trees and wet
antecedent conditions. Current thinking is that impacts won't
be common enough to warrant a wind advisory for inland areas and
winds should remain well below warning criteria for the coast.

Model soundings suggest deep enough instability behind the low
late tonight into Saturday to continue to include a mention of
thunderstorms starting along the N or S wa coasts late tonight and
expanding inland through the day Saturday. As the onshore flow
weakens Saturday night, expect to see showers decrease and
thunderstorm chances drop off completely.

Models remain in good agreement regarding a ridge building offshore
Sunday. The lingering offshore baroclinic zone then begins to
shift back into the region, with moist isentropic lift
redeveloping. This returns a chance of rain to the forecast area
Sunday, but with lighter amounts. The ridging begins to flatten
some locally Monday, steering another wet system into the pacific
northwest, although it looks like it is likely to clip the local
forecast area to the north, so highest rain chances and highest
precipitation amounts will be on the washington side. Snow levels
rise significantly with the ridging starting Sunday, so don't
expect snow to be much of a threat for the cascades Sunday or
Monday. Bowen

Long term Monday night through Friday... Ridging starts
building again offshore on Tuesday with a ridge axis stretching to
the british columbia coast. This will shift the storm track east,
with a local drying trend for the rest of the forecast time
frame. Lowered pops some Tuesday and relegated anything
mentionable to the cascades Wednesday, but things will end up even
drier than current forecast reflects if models continue to trend
as they have been. With high pressure taking hold and plenty of
moisture leftover from a week's worth of rain, added some fog to
the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Anyone looking
for a Sun fix may get it during the afternoons in the second half
of next week. Bowen

Aviation GenerallyVFR through about 06z Saturday. The coast
will be the exception, where training showers are likely to
continue MVFR cig and or vis. Widespread MVFR cig and maybe vis
expected to develop at all sites after 06z Saturday as the next
frontal system approaches with ra. Winds will become gusty out of
the south or southwest behind the front after 06z Saturday,
particularly for sites south of kast and kpdx, with gusts as high
as 30 to 35 kt. Some chance for thunderstorms along the north
oregon coast tonight, spreading inland during the day Saturday.

Kpdx and approaches... MostlyVFR before 06z Saturday. Steadier
rain expected to begin around 06z Saturday and then continue
through about 15z Saturday with overall flight conditions
lowering into MVFR. S-sw wind gusts possible to 30 kt starting
around 09z Saturday. Small chance for thunderstorms 15z Saturday
to around 00z Sunday. Bowen

Marine The long period west swell has peaked early this
afternoon and the seas will slowly subside the next few days, but
are expected to stay above 10 feet through Sunday. Wind speeds
will be in and out of advisory criteria through the time period
of the current small craft advisory (now through Sunday).

The first increase in the winds will be tonight as a surface low
moves south to north across the central oregon coastal waters.

This feature will briefly tighten the surface pressure gradient
nearshore around midnight tonight through 3 am Saturday morning
for brief gale gusts. These gale gusts are expected to be in a
small section of the central oregon coast waters within 15 nm of
the coast from yachats and southward (south of newport, oregon).

However, west winds behind this low may also generate localized
gale force gusts across the waters beyond 40 nm Saturday morning.

Due to the briefness, the small areal coverage, and the marginal
gales speeds have decided to not issue a gale warning. The
second increase of winds will be with another front expected on
Sunday where gusts of 25 to 30 kt are likely. Otherwise in
between these two systems the wind speeds will fall below small
craft advisory wind criteria. ~tj

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter storm warning until 6 pm pdt Saturday for northern
oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter storm warning until 6 pm pdt Saturday for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Sunday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Saturday for columbia river
bar.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 75 mi51 min 52°F 55°F1012.5 hPa
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 76 mi45 min 57°F1013.4 hPa (-0.9)
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 76 mi51 min SE 7 G 8.9

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KCZK

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
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SW6W6----SW65SW5
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1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Kalama, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Saint Helens, Columbia River, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.