Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:35AM||Sunset 4:50PM||Tuesday January 21, 2020 12:19 PM PST (20:19 UTC)||Moonrise 5:07AM||Moonset 2:04PM||Illumination 12%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Packwood, WAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 211753 AAB AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 953 AM PST Tue Jan 21 2020
Updated Aviation and Marine Discussion
SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will move east across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this morning bringing rain early in the day then showers. A warm front will then lift northeast through the region Wednesday for another round of widespread rain and rising snow levels. A continued series of front moving through the Pacific Northwest later in the week and through the weekend will continue the rainy weather pattern.
SHORT TERM. Today through Thursday . Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a well defined negatively titled trough swinging through the area today. This is resulting in stratiform rain slowly diminishing across the Cascades through the morning as the energy moves into central and eastern Oregon. Convective showers are pushing into the NW Oregon coast and SW Washington coast. The most instability is following the -30C line. Following this line in the models suggests the strongest and most widespread showers will be north of Salem today. These showers are showing some isolated cells which have produced lightning and thunder over the waters. SPC mesoanalysis suggests 250J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-1km Helicity values of 250 m2/s2 supports the rotating storms observed off the South Washington coast this morning per the KLGX radar. Satellite observations are showing some convection stretching southward along the coast, so expect the central Oregon coast to see increasing activity as these come on shore.
Snow levels are closer to 3000 ft this morning but will increase slightly this afternoon. Current winter weather advisory for the South Washington Cascades is on track. /42
Previous discussion follows . A cold front was approaching the coast early this morning, and is expected to move east quickly across the forecast area this morning. Radar showed rain had spread east into the Willamette Valley, and will continue for several hours this morning before the cold frontal passage brings and end to the stratiform rain. A rather cold and energetic upper trough follows the front today, as evidenced by lightning activity seen under the low circulation offshore. NAM forecast soundings show sufficiently deep instability to continue to include a slight chance of thunderstorms today along the coast and over the coastal waters, while elsewhere showers look favorable, especially for orographically favored locations facing the southwest. Snow levels come down with the front today, lowering below pass levels. As the frontal band of precipitation is likely to last just a few hours, snowfall today for the Cascades will also have to rely on instability and favorable orographics this afternoon and evening, which appears to most favor the south Washington Cascades. Will hang on to the winter weather advisory there, but drop the advisory for the Oregon part of the Cascades as precipitation rates do not look sufficient over a sustained period to support advisory level snowfall.
A progressive pattern brings a warm front into play later tonight and Wednesday, pushing the front northeast through the forecast area late Wednesday. Isentropic charts show a deep layer of modest but moist isentropic lift in the low to mid levels overspreading the region late tonight and through the day Wednesday for categorical pops. Once the warm front pushes inland snow levels are expected to rise above the passes by Wednesday night, and remain high through Thursday as the region remains in the warm sector. Wednesday night the focus for best chances for rain shift to the northern part of the forecast area as the frontal boundary lifts up into Washington. The baroclinic zone however begins to shift south again Thursday, with a cold front slowly moving southeast back into Oregon. Late Wednesday through Thursday see precipitable water values along the coast climb back to around 1" according to the GFS as a modest atmospheric river sets up pointed at the Pacific Northwest. This will require some monitoring for the potential of a period of heavy rainfall coupled with snowmelt late in the week should the front get hung up, but at this point do not see any serious flood concerns.
LONG TERM. Thursday night through Sunday . No changes. Previous discussion follows. Rather progressive pattern with fronts shifting across the region from time to time. This will maintain periods of rain and Cascades snow, though timing of when heavier bands occur still somewhat in question. GFS starting to hint at strong system passing over the region later Fri night into Sat, but not a lot of model consistency. So, no change to current forecast, but will keep it rather wettish. Snow levels stay in the 5000 to 6500 ft range. However, may get a break in the weather for Sunday, as region looks to be between systems. Too early to bet the farm, but I suspect this will not hold, so will keep some potential of showers in the forecast for Sunday. At least temperatures stay near seasonal range for mid to late January. /Rockey
AVIATION. A line of thunderstorms is moving on the the north coast this morning with vicinity TSTMs possible for KAST through this morning. Post-frontal showers will continue chances for MVFR cigs and gusty south winds most of the day. SHowers will become less frequent this evening and the winds will ease a bit. A warm front will increase rain overnight tonight with lowering CIGS and VSBY. Expect mostly MVFR conditions Wednesday morning with pockets of IFR associated with rain, fog, and low ceilings with the warm front. Gusty south winds are likely Wednesday afternoon in the wake of the warm front.
KPDX AND APPROACHES . Rain showers will hold on to MVFR conditions most of the day although brief VFR is possible in between showers. Rain showers will decrease and possibly end for a few hours late this evening, but think MVFR CIGS will persist. A warm front returns steady rain and continues MVFR conditions early Wednesday morning. ~TJ
MARINE. A line of thunderstorms moving across the waters could produce lightning, brief down pours, small hail, and bursts of gusty wind this morning.Radar indicates weak rotation with some of the stronger storms, but not enough organization with them to be confident in water spout development. Otherwise, the short term marine forecast is on track. The offshore buoy 46005 is reporting seas around 17 to 19 ft this morning which decays to a swell around 16 feet at buoy 46029. This combined with wind waves should keep overall seas below 20 feet this afternoon which is in line with the recent ENP guidance. Gales are on track, and should end late this afternoon. ~TJ
From previous discussion at 848 AM . Due to building seas during high tide, there is a tidal overflow advisory for the southern Washington coastline. The increased sea heights and long period does increase the chance for high surf conditions, but at this time, guidance is falling below criteria. Note however that there may still be large surf with 20 to 24 ft breakers. Sneaker waves are definitely possible Tue through Wed. By Wed afternoon, winds should begin to slow and seas will ease to near 15 ft with a period to 11 ft. While several shortwaves and disturbances will move over the waters from the west over the next few days, seas will generally remain 13 to 16 ft with a period of 12 to 15 seconds through the week.
The challenge in the extended portion of the forecast lies with drastic model inconsistencies. Models are depicting a general pattern of another strong low advancing towards the area from the west, but the timing and location are still up for debate. Because of this, there is a chance for winds and seas to increase later this weekend. -Muessle
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for South Washington Coast.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for South Washington Cascades.
PZ . Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Wednesday for Columbia River Bar.
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This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA||75 mi||56 min||51°F||49°F||1007 hPa|
|LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA||76 mi||50 min||43°F||1009 hPa|
|TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA||76 mi||62 min||SSE 6 G 8|
Wind History for Longview, WA(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
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Link to 5 minute data for KCZK
Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SE||E||S|
|2 days ago|
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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