Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:34AM||Sunset 4:16PM||Wednesday December 11, 2019 3:24 AM PST (11:24 UTC)||Moonrise 4:15PM||Moonset 6:58AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Packwood, WAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 111115 AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 313 AM PST Wed Dec 11 2019
SYNOPSIS. A strong front will push across the region tonight, with moderate to heavy rain later today and tonight. Another front will arrive on Thu, with more rain and breezy conditions. Snow will pile up over the higher Cascades tonight through Thu, with 1 to 2 feet of snow expected through Thu afternoon. Then, will see westerly flow aloft persist, with cool showery weather for the region for Fri into early next week, with snow continuing over the Cascades.
SHORT TERM. Today through Friday . A weak warm front will be lifting north across the region this morning into early afternoon. This front will bring occasional light rain for most areas this morning. But, most of the rain will shift north of the Columbia River by early afternoon as the warm front lifts into Washington.
Once the warm front lifts north, there will be bring a brief respite for the rain, and it will be brief. A 3 am, NOAA satellite imagery showing rather impressive low pressure area over the Gulf of Alaska, with a frontal boundary extending from the low towards the far ne Pac along 130W of the Pac NW coast, then back to the southwest. This front will be pushing hard to the east today, thanks to a strong westerly 160 to 170 kt jet that is along lat 42N. This jet will push the into the region later today, with rain increasing along the coast by afternoon, and rain spreading inland this afternoon.
The front will be getting closer the coast by early evening, Models continue to indicate potential of 40 to 50 mph winds along the coast at that time, thanks to rather strong band of winds aloft. NAM most aggressive, with 50 to 55 kt winds as low as 1500 to 2000 ft above ground. Generally, will usually get about 50 to 70 pct of such winds at the surface with pre-frontal winds. So, will keep gusts to 40 to 50 mph on the open beaches and coastal headlands later today into the evening. While higher terrain will also see these winds tonight, will likely not get such winds for inland valleys, as alignment of low level and mid-level winds not in optimal position, as low level winds stay bit too south to southeasterly. Even so, may get gusts 25 to 30 mph in spots later in the evening once the front shifts into the interior.
Ideally, with such a strong jet pushing on the front, the front and associated rains would not stay all that long. But, there is a fly in the ointment---a low that is forming near 135W 41N. This low will shift inland over southwest Oregon later tonight. But, during that time, the low will slow the inland progression of the main front, with rain through the evening. Once the low shifts inland, rain will decrease, but that will be after midnight. Until then, will see locally heavy rain over the higher terrain, with 1 to 2 inches of rain a good bet over the higher terrain, and 0.75 to 1.00 inches for interior lowlands. Fortunately, rivers are still rather low, so no flooding concerns. Even so, may get local ponding of water in low lying areas, so motorists should be ready for the tonight.
Another upper level disturbance in the flow will shift towards the Pac NW on Thu, with rain increasing Thu am. Rain may more hit and miss for a time in the morning, but should pick up by midday. Once that front shifts inland, will see southerly pressure gradients open up by afternoon, with gusty south to southwest winds for most all areas, including interwar lowlands. But, gradient only enough to support 25 to 35 mph gusts, with tad higher over the mountains.
Now, the other side of the coin . SNOW. Yep, this series of fronts will bring a lot of snow to the higher terrain of the Cascades. Snow levels start at 4500 ft over south Washington to 6500 ft over Lane County. But, snow levels gradually lower tonight and Thu, down to 3500 to 4000 ft by Thu evening up north, and 4500 ft over Lane County. With current forecast QPF, strong potential for total accumulations (this afternoon through Thu night) of 15 to 30 inches of snow in south Washington and north Oregon Cascades, and 12 to 24 inches over Lane County. Add to that southwesterly winds gusting up to 45 mph on exposed ridges, will not a great time to be outdoors, unless one really likes heavy snow and winds. Will be two major accumulation periods: one tonight and the other being tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. Will upgrade Winter storm watches to Winter Storm Warnings for all of the Cascades, starting for south Washington Cascades this afternoon, north Oregon Cascades later today, and Lane County later tonight.
Cool westerly flow continues Thu night and Fri, with showery weather continuing. Rainfall will be lighter, with snow in the Cascades, along with snow accumulations expected above 3500 ft. /Rockey
LONG TERM. Friday night through Tuesday . The upper air patters remains progressive through the weekend, but without any significant individual systems, expect continuing showers. Snow levels continue to drop, settling at around 2500 ft for Saturday and Sunday. Operational runs of the models seem to be in decent agreement that upper ridging will move over the area starting Monday. From there, there is also general agreement that the ridge won't become the semi-permanent type we've seen over the recent weeks, but the question is how quickly it moves out and the next system approaches. Expect to see about a 24 hour dry period sometime between Monday and Wednesday, followed by a continuing active pattern. Bowen
AVIATION. Post frontal showers continue to diminish but next more significant storm is not far behind. Currently a wide variety of flight conditions IFR to VFR. Model trends show general improvement this morning for the interior but coastal areas likely not to change much. A warm front will spread rain into the area with IFR cigs and vis at the coast this afternoon and early evening. Rain then diminishes and vis and cigs should improve but probably not above the MVFR category as the following cold front move through in the evening. Also south winds gusting 25 to 35 kt later this afternoon and evening can be expected at the coast. Inland areas will likely have MVFR cigs and vis later this afternoon and evening. Spots of IFR may also develop especially this evening.
KPDX AND APPROACHES . Cigs around 1500 ft at KPDX and KVUO but appears east wind from the Gorge is lifting cigs at KTTD. Will plan on maintaining the MVFR category then lift cigs above 3000 ft midday. As rain increases later this afternoon and evening will likely see conditions deteriorate. Winds will be out of the east through early afternoon the veer to the south or southeast. Gusts to 20 kt possible late afternoon and early evening hours. /mh
MARINE. Winds will ramp-up today as a strong front from a Gulf of Alaska low swings across the waters bringing Gale force winds between 40 to 45 kt later this morning through the evening hours. Winds will subside but remain gusty through Thu night. High pres builds over the waters Friday, but some models show another front approaching the waters Sat. Though it will likely be weaker than today's storm.
There is a general consensus between models that the primary swell will be between 17 to 19 ft and period between 15 and 17s. Combined wave heights may reach 20 ft in some areas, mainly offshore. Seas will generally stay at or above 10 ft through the weekend. Long period swells pose an increased risk for hazardous beaches. /mh -BPhillips
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to noon PST Friday for Northern Oregon Cascades.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County.
WA . Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to noon PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.
PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Thursday for Columbia River Bar.
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA||75 mi||61 min||44°F||52°F||1018.2 hPa|
|LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA||76 mi||61 min||46°F||1018.6 hPa|
|TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA||76 mi||61 min||SE 1.9 G 1.9|
Wind History for Longview, WA(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
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Link to 5 minute data for KCZK
Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SE||E||S|
|2 days ago|
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (6,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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