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Marine Weather and Tides Naselle, WA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:43AM

Sunset 4:28PM

Thursday December 5, 2019 12:45 PM PST (20:45 UTC)

Moonrise 1:49PM

Moonset 12:38AM

Illumination 65%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naselle, WA

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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 051742 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 941 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. An upper level ridge will reside over the area Thursday and then shift east Thursday night. A weakening frontal system moves inland Friday afternoon or evening, followed by an upper level trough Friday night and Saturday. High pressure returns early next week. Another weak system may impact the area late next Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SHORT TERM. Today . Quick update this morning to remove the Dense Fog Advisory for the southern Willamette Valley. While there is likely some dense fog somewhere in the southern Willamette Valley, surface observations, satellite imagery and web cameras suggest it is very limited in nature.

Farther north, surface observations suggest low clouds and fog are a bit more prevalent. However, the mid and high level clouds are a bit thicker at this moment so it's difficult to ascertain the actual coverage of low clouds via satellite imagery. Models are in good agreement pressure gradients will gradually build across the Cascades today into tonight. This will result in a slow increase in east to north-northeasterly winds in the northern Willamette Valley today. This should result in fog and low clouds gradually retreating, but there may still be a few areas in the central and southern Willamette Valley that stay stuck in the gray for most of the day. This in turn creates a lot of uncertainty in the high temperature forecast for these areas as well. Have continued a middle of the road approach given the uncertainty for now. /Neuman

Previous discussion follows .

Tonight through Saturday . The large-scale weather pattern early this morning is comprised of a deepening upper level low pressure area near 40N 140W and a transitory 500 mb ridge along the Pac NW coastline. Main weather feature tonight is the valley fog. Conditions seem to have improved a little since 06Z, with localized dense fog noted at KHIO and between K77S and K61S. Strong inversions are expected to continue through Friday, which will maintain air quality issues for the interior valleys.

The KTTD-KDLS gradient strengthens this afternoon through Thursday night and should peak around -5 to -6 mb. This will certainly help air quality in the north Willamette Valley, but will not have much impact for the central and southern sections or the Lower Columbia in SW Washington. The upper low out near 40N 140W early this morning drifts east through Friday night, moving inside 130w by 12Z Sat. A weakening occluded front reaches the coast around 18Z Fri. This feature will become parallel to the mid and upper level flow and likely slow down as it nears the coast. Inland areas east of the Oregon Coast Range and also the SW Washington interior may remain dry through much of Friday.

The upper low ejects east to northeast and weakens as it moves inland Sat. Latest operational GFS, NAM and ECMWF show a 1000 mb surface low just off the central or south Oregon coast by 21Z Sat. The operational GFS has the low sitting just west of KONP, while the NAM and ECMWF have it closer to the Oregon and California border. The heaviest QPF Fri night through Sat will be directed at SW Oregon and northern California. Opted to include a slight chance of thunder for the far south part of the central Oregon coastal waters and also the coastline roughly south of Heceta Head Sat morning as the NBM hints at this and to mesh with KMFR. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Saturday night through Thursday . An elongated northeast-to-southwest oriented 500 mb trough will be over the region Sat night and then shifts to the southeast Sun. Models in good agreement depicting some lingering precip over the area through Sun, primarily in the morning. A sharply amplified 500 mb ridge axis develops near 135W Sun and this will become the dominant feature for the first part of next week. The ECMWF 500 mb ensembles and 500 mb total mean cluster analysis provide moderate to good forecast confidence in this ridging pattern. Would expect strong valley inversions to return with minimal (2 mb or less) offshore low-level gradient through the Gorge. Would also anticipate stubborn fog and low clouds to become more prevalent in the central and south Willamette Valley. Models show the upper ridge migrating east late Tue and Tue night as another weak system approaches the coast. The operational GFS and ECMWF differ on timing, with the ECMWF a little faster. There is lower confidence in the Tue night-Thu time frame, as shown by the ECMWF ensembles and Relative Measure of Predictability (RMOP). WPC favors a general zonal pattern 12Z Wed. In any event, it appears the pattern of occasional weak weather systems will continue. Do not see any typical December rain events and additional mountain snow will be minimal. Weishaar

AVIATION. LIFR conditions are beginning to lift through the southern and central Willamette Valley around KEUG and KSLE. While still MVFR, they should lift to VFR within the next several hours by 20Z Thu. Areas around KUAO are still in the IFR category with cigs around 400 ft AGL and reduced visibility. KHIO is still experiencing dense fog and low cigs which will be stubborn to dissipate. KHIO is expected to lift to MVFR levels around 21Z Thu, however, some fog may still linger in the vicinity. VFR conditions will be widespread and winds will remain light and variable through around 06Z Fri. Through the Columbia River Gorge the pressure gradient will increase around 03Z Fri causing winds to increase. Gusts up to 25 kt are expected after 15Z Fri. A front ahead of a strong low will advance towards the forecast area around 09Z Fri causing lower clouds to begin filling in. Chance of precipitation along the coast late in the period. Most likely fog will develop again around prone locations like KHIO,KUAO, KSLE and KEUG after 09Z Fri, however building stratus may keep it at bay.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mainly VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Cigs will begin to drop towards the end of the period as a front moves over the west coast and ushers in more moisture. Slight chance for fog development after 09Z Fri however confidence is low so it was left out of the TAF. -Muessle

MARINE. Previous discussion to follow. A low pressure system approaching the south Oregon and north California coastal waters from the west will bring strengthening south to southeast winds today through Friday. the strongest winds will tend to be over the outer waters beyond 20 nm, with gusts likely reaching the range of 20 to 30 kt Friday. In response to the southerly winds, a mix of wind waves and fresh swell will create steep short period seas building as high as 10 to 14 feet over the outer waters Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night will see winds and seas slowly decreasing again as the low heads towards the north California coast. Winds are then expected to remain under 20 kt and seas under 8 ft, until another frontal system approaches the region around late Tuesday.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . None.



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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR	13 mi	46 min	NNE 2.9 G 6	48°F	46°F		1016.3 hPa (+1.1)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162	19 mi	46 min			48°F	4 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA	23 mi	52 min	E 6 G 7	48°F	46°F		1016.4 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth	38 mi	56 min	SE 9.7 G 12	49°F	48°F	6 ft	1016 hPa (+1.0)	48°F
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA	38 mi	70 min	E 8.9 G 12	48°F	46°F		1016.2 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036)	39 mi	46 min			47°F	5 ft
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179)	46 mi	46 min			49°F	6 ft

Wind History for Astoria, OR

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR	16 mi	51 min	S 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	51°F	46°F	83%	1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Naselle River, 4 miles above swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington

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Tide / Current Tables for Paradise Point, Long Island, Willapa Bay, Washington

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR

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