Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chatham, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 5:08PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 5:49 AM EST (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 3:01AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 Expires:202011100515;;599698 Fzus73 Kmqt 100415 Mwsmqt Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette Mi 1115 Pm Est Mon Nov 9 2020 Lsz248-249-265-266-100515- 1115 Pm Est Mon Nov 9 2020
.showers producing gusty winds over the waters... The areas affected include... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior west of line from manitou island to marquette mi beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... At 1112 pm est, doppler radar indicated a narrow line of showers, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These showers were located along a line extending from 14 nm northeast of granite island to 8 nm south of presque isle, moving east at 20 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty west winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and torrential rainfall as these showers pass. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these showers pass. && lat...lon 4649 8703 4644 8726 4649 8741 4651 8745 4687 8708 4686 8651 4663 8660 4664 8664 4656 8663 4640 8670 4643 8677 4640 8690
LSZ249


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chatham, MI
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location: 46.43, -86.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 250930 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 430 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM EST WED NOV 25 2020

RAP analysis and GOES WV imagery this morning show an exiting shortwave over Upper Michigan with subsidence immediately behind the wave as seen on WV. This subsidence has allowed for an immediate end to -RASN across the UP as only low clouds and some patchy dense fog remain trapped beneath the inversion. While initially it looked like there could be some DZ/FZDZ behind this wave with deeper moisture through 700-750 mb, that hasn't exactly come to fruition. While I am still keeping some very light PoPs in the fcst for this threat through the morning hours, I am less concerned now than I was last night for any FZDZ chances. With a fresh inch of snow across the UP, not sure how much of an impact any light FZDZ would have anyway. Last few hours of vis obs suggest there is pretty widespread fog across the yoop this morning, but am failing to find anything on webcams. Certainly are some low clouds hanging around much of the UP, pretty much tied to the areas that received the snowfall this past aftn. Expecting these trends to continue through the morning, with low-level moisture trapped near the sfc providing consistent temperatures with low clouds and locally dense fog.

Today, much more of the same with low clouds remaining trapped beneath the inversion. While increasing temperatures should bring an end to the fog and lift lower clouds slightly, going to be an overall cloudy, November day. Look for calmer winds as a ridge of high pressure shifts overhead from the west and highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.

By tonight, ridge shifts to the east of the UP as the advertised southern stream shortwave finally lifts NE through Lower Michigan. Models have trended further south and remaining weaker. Cut any remaining PoPs from the fcst and have a few silent PoPs east and along Lake Michigan to acct for any rogue showers tonight. CAMs have been wanting to put a few showers across the south-central tonight and I am not exactly sure why. Model soundings are drier tonight than they are currently and there is even some low-level divergence that should limit it further. Only thing would be some weak WAA upsloping through WI with lingering low-level moisture could kick off a little drizzle, but any precip amounts would likely be negligible. With low-level moisture and clouds remaining tonight, persistence is generally the way to go with lows around 30.

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 427 AM EST WED NOV 25 2020

A progressive split flow pattern into the weekend will become more amplified next week as the streams phase and a trough or closed low develops in the central CONUS or Great Lakes. Above average temperatures will prevail through Sunday with colder weather next week as persistent northerly flow develops. Any very cold air will remains north of the Arctic Circle.

Thursday, southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching weak cold front. WAA and some sunshine should help push temps into the lower 40s, especially for downslope flow locations near Lake Superior.

Thursday night into Friday, A shortwave trough will will slide through the northern Great Lakes but with little moisture available, no precipitation is expected. However, slightly cooler conditions will move in with highs back into mid to upper 30s.

Saturday, a strong shrtwv and associated sfc low moving through northern Ontario to James bay will support another influx of warm dry air into the northern Great Lakes as light pcpn with the shrtwv remains well to the north. Temps should again climb into the lower 40s.

Sun-Tue, The models/ensembles still display significant differences with the timing/location of the nrn/srn stream phasing and the location and evolution of the resulting closed mid/sfc low. So, confidence in any details is low. Nevertheless, there has been a more consistent signal for a period of moderate to strong northerly flow with cold enough air to support increased LES or lake enhanced snow chances for Upper Michigan. If the mid/sfc develops close enough to bring a prolonged period of deeper moisture and synoptic scale pcpn into the area, more signficant snow could develop, especially for locations favored by north winds.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1220 AM EST WED NOV 25 2020

LIFR ceilings will persist through the night at KSAW. Low level moisture trapped under the inversion will be hard pressed to mix out on Wednesday with very light low level winds Thus. ceilings will remain in the IFR range through the day. Conditions will be a little better at KIWD and KCMX with MVFR ceilings predominant but there will be difficult to time intervals of IFR ceilings as well.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 230 AM EST WED NOV 25 2020

As a ridge of high pressure moves over Lake Superior from the west this morning, the lake will relax and become unusually, for this time of year, calm. As yesterday's trof shifts east, winds first become NW, before going calm during the day, and then becoming SW as the ridge of high pressure shifts east of the lake tonight. By Thursday, a dry and weaker cold front will increase the gradient enough to bring SW winds between 20 to 30 knots across western and central Superior through the early hours on Friday. Another ridge of high pressure moves in behind this front, bringing a period of calmer wind, around 20 knots or less, through the first half of the weekend. By early next week, models are suggesting a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region. While the storm track is still uncertainty, there is higher confidence a tighter pressure gradient bringing a period of northerly winds to at least around 30 knots Sunday night through roughly Tuesday morning.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . JAW LONG TERM . JLB AVIATION . MZ MARINE . JAW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 10 mi53 min SSW 4.1 35°F 1012 hPa33°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 30 mi49 min WSW 1 G 1 34°F 1010.8 hPa (-0.0)31°F
GRIM4 36 mi19 min W 6 G 7 39°F 1011.3 hPa35°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 49 mi69 min SSW 8.9 G 12 37°F 1012.5 hPa
BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI 54 mi69 min Calm G 2.9 36°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI10 mi54 minSSW 4 mi35°F33°F93%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP53

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3--SW34S7S7
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S6S5S8S5S6S5CalmSW3SW4S4
1 day agoN21
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N12N10N10N8N9CalmNW73SE3SE5SE4S4SE3S3
2 days agoS6--S4S5S8S9S9S9S8S7S8S6S5CalmS4S3SW4SW5SW6W4W3N20
G30
N25
G33
N21
G32

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.