Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chatham, MI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 8:51PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 12:58 AM EDT (04:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0043.000000t0000z-190805t2100z/ 445 Pm Edt Mon Aug 5 2019
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 500 pm edt... For the following areas... Grand marais to whitefish point mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior from grand marais mi to whitefish point mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border... Marquette to munising mi... Munising to grand marais mi... At 444 pm edt, strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 29 nm east of stannard rock to 6 nm southeast of miners castle, moving east at 25 knots. Hazard...wind gusts to 40 knots. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Locations impacted include... Miners castle, grand sable dunes and grand island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected. && lat...lon 4663 8615 4653 8642 4641 8658 4638 8668 4641 8673 4701 8680 4710 8579 4663 8569 time...mot...loc 2044z 272deg 27kt 4706 8653 4643 8642 hail...0.00in wind...40kts
LSZ249 Expires:201908052100;;172001 FZUS73 KMQT 052045 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 445 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 LSZ249>251-266-267-052100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chatham, MI
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location: 46.43, -86.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 202357
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
757 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 227 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
as expected, early morning thunderstorms over northern mn fell apart
as they crossed lake superior this morning, but rain showers and
some briefly gusty winds (even as high as 35 mph at kiwd) did make
it into western upper michigan today. Early this afternoon the last
remnants of the rain showers continue to diminish as they cross the
keweenaw peninsula. The earlier rain and cloud cover has kept
temperatures in the 60s over the far west but they should be able to
climb back into the lower 70s this afternoon with brief clearing
expected.

The front remains a little behind schedule today. 18z obs indicate
that it is located from just west of thunder bay, on to near ely, mn
to st. Cloud, mn. There is still a chance for some isolated shra in
the upper peninsula late this afternoon through the evening as the
front crosses, but in general it is just producing some post-frontal
low cloudiness over canada and mn this afternoon and that is
expected to persist tonight. As drier air moves in behind the front,
portions of the interior west will cool of pretty efficiently and
with the nights getting continuously longer a few spots will likely
fall into the mid to upper 40s. Lows east and lakeside will be in
the 50s and lower 60s. Could be a little patchy fog tonight but it's
a little questionable whether the boundary layer winds will calm
enough for anything widespread.

Wednesday, we'll be looking at cooler highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s, warmest near the bay of green bay where downsloping
northwesterlies will keep things a tad warmer than elsewhere. By
midday it looks to get a little breezy as the mixed layer deepens to
5-7 kft. Gusts to 20 mph are possible across much of the region,
lower near mnm and higher over the east where a few 25-30 mph gusts
seem a good bet. Expecting a high swim risk for alger county by the
mid to late afternoon and small craft advisories may be needed for
the pictured rocks region and areas east as well.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 449 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
fall-like weather is expected to impact upper michigan for the
latter half of the work week as a closed low over central canada
rotates slowly SE across james bay into quebec, sending multiple
shortwave troughs across the upper great lakes region along with
associated strong cold advection.

Wednesday night into Friday, initial strong shortwave and blast of
cold advection will move in during the day on Wednesday but
northwest wind gusts up to 25 mph will likely continue into wed
evening with continued cold advection, especially near lake superior
and across the east half of the cwa. The unstable conditions over
lake superior will create ideal conditions for building waves along
the shoreline, especially east of marquette where fetch over the
lake will be maximized. These building waves will create a high swim
risk for lake superior beaches Wednesday into early Thursday.

Northerly winds should slacken quite a bit Thursday into Friday as
sfc high pressure over northern manitoba builds southward toward the
upper great lakes region.

With 850 mb temps forecast to drop to 4c or colder late Wed night
into early fri, temps will be well below normal through much of the
period. Expect inland min temps Wed night to drop into the lower to
mid 40s with perhaps some mid to upper 30s readings at the typical
spots, especially interior west. Daytime highs Thursday will
struggle to climb into the mid to upper 60s and may be even colder
where cloud cover is more prevalent. Model soundings suggest there
could be a potential for some diurnal or lake induced instability
showers at times through the period Wed night into Thu night as
periodic shortwaves move across the area. This is not surprising
given lake superior water temps in the lower 60s and 850 mb temps
around 4c or colder. Large scale anticyclonic flow with the building
sfc high should limit coverage of showers to isolated, or at best
scattered, for the most part. Overnight lows Thu night will likely
be coldest temps we've seen since at least early june, especially
for locations inland from the great lakes, as radiational cooling
conditions should be near ideal under the center of sfc high. If
skies clear out, readings could easily dip near freezing, especially
for the typical inland cold spots. As a consequence, would not be
surprised if frost headlines may be needed Thu night into early fri.

Friday afternoon into early next week, a gradual warming trend is
expected ahead of a slowly approaching frontal boundary over the
plains. A series of shortwaves moving through the northern plains
into south central canada will gradually push the frontal boundary
toward the upper great lakes early next week. Gradual warm advection
ahead of the frontal boundary and on the backside of the sfc ridge
axis will yield more seasonable temperatures. With models trending
slower with the arrival of the frontal boundary, persistent high
pressure should keep conditions mostly dry through the weekend. The
next best chance for widespread precipitation now looks to be early
next week, especially Monday Mon night, as a slow moving front
pushes east across the upper great lakes. A few of the models even
hint at a post-frontal shortwave moving through the area on tue
which could sustain lingering isolated showers.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 756 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
vfr conditions are expected through the forecast period. A period of
mid cloud CIGS could approach MVFR but confidence is low that
conditions will drop belowVFR. Northwest winds will become gusty by
Wednesday afternoon, especially at kcmx.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 236 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
passage of a cold front late this afternoon through just after
midnight will usher in a cool air mass for Wed into thur. With
unstable conditions developing btwn the warmer water and cooler air
moving over the lake, winds will likely reach the 15-25kt range at
times, and perhaps gusting up to 30kt occasionally, primarily over
the east half of the lake. On Thursday winds should die down over
much of the lake but some 15-25 kt gusts will remain, mainly east of
a line from michipicoten island to grand marais, mi. High pressure will
arrive later Thu into Fri to bring diminishing winds that are
expected to remain below 20 kts until late Saturday night.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Kcw
long term... Voss
aviation... Jlb
marine... Kcw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 10 mi62 min Calm 64°F 1012.8 hPa61°F
45173 17 mi48 min NNE 7.8 59°F 66°F1012.4 hPa
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 30 mi64 min Calm G 1.9 64°F 1012.7 hPa60°F
GRIM4 36 mi38 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 63°F 1013.7 hPa63°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 49 mi78 min Calm G 1.9 66°F 1013.5 hPa
BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI 54 mi78 min Calm G 0 66°F 1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI10 mi62 minN 0 mi64°F61°F90%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP53

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------S8S54SW7SW8S8SW4NE6N4N3CalmN4Calm
1 day ago----3--SW5----SE4SE43----------------------------
2 days agoS5S6S4S5S4--SW7S5S6S6S6S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.