Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 9:02 PM Moonrise 3:13 AM   Moonset 1:08 PM

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LSZ249 115 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - . Munising to grand marais mi - .
at 114 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. The leading edge of these Thunderstorms were located over shelter bay, moving east at 20 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
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lat - .lon 4648 8702 4647 8712 4654 8714 4669 8651 4653 8642 4640 8663 4640 8671 4643 8677 4640 8690

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 020746 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 346 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Active pattern continues through next week as a series of low pressure systems track across the U.S. and affect Upper MI.
Above normal precipitation expected, including chance of thunderstorms at times - Temperatures won't stray too far from normal most days, but they will be above normal more often than below normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Upper Michigan is between two systems tonight with 500 mb ridging resulting in mostly clear skies and efficient radiational cooling.
RGB composite satellite imagery shows low clouds across the far east and mid/upper level clouds to our southwest with clear skies across most of the CWA Light anticyclonic winds and clear skies have allowed temps to tumble well below afternoon dew point values with a handful of sites at or below 35F even all the way to the lakeshores in a few spots. Iron Mtn and the Sault have reported fog and RGB imagery suggests implies some in the Michigamme Highlands too, but observed visibilities have been greater than a mile so far.
Continued nocturnal cooling may allow for increased coverage or intensity of patchy fog, but mid-level clouds are beginning to move over our coolest locations so decided to leave fog out of the forecast for now.

Looking ahead through today, the primary forecast challenges are related to cloud/precip trends with latest model guidance indicating a slightly earlier arrival of both. This feeds back onto high temps that are coming in a few degrees cooler than the previous forecast and now appear warmest ~60F across the east where cloud cover should arrive latest. HRRR guidance brings the first measurable precip into locations adjacent to Wisconsin between 17-19Z (1-3 PM CDT)
this afternoon then to a line between Houghton, Marquette, and Escanaba between 19-21z (3-5 PM CDT). Generally tried to mimic that timing in going forecast, but rain may struggle to move over the eastern UP until tonight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Last 24hrs of medium range model guidance has maintained continuity in showing that the recent active pattern across the Lwr 48 will continue thru next week as a series of vigorous waves track off of the N Pacific and then across the U.S. This pattern will be beneficial in easing ongoing drought over western and eastern Upper MI as frequent rainfall events are expected, some potentially mdt to hvy. The latest drought monitor from 4/25 indicated drought conditions in western Upper MI were into the severe category in portions of Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. To the e, moderate drought was indicated from eastern Delta to western Mackinac counties. The frequent pcpn events will also ease spring fire weather concerns.
So, expectation is for overall above normal pcpn thru next week. As for temps, with the progressive nature of the flow and frequent shortwave passages, expect temps fluctuating around normal, likely not straying too far from normal on most days, rather than any prolonged periods of well above or well blo normal temps. Daily temps will end up on the warm side of normal more often than the cool side. Farther down the road, there are indications for a cooler period mid month per recent EPS runs which show troffing/weak negative height anomalies setting up over the Great Lakes region and ne U.S. CFSv2 ensemble mean also supports a cooler period mid month.

After a dry and quiet night with ridging briefly overhead, an upper low centered over the Rockies will begin to move into the Northern Plains Thursday. In response, strong waa/isentropic ascent will advance across the Upper Mississippi Valley to Upper MI Thu aftn/night. Strong 850-700mb moisture transport is also noted with precipitable water increasing to 200-250pct of normal. As a result, expect shra to spread ne into Upper MI during Thu aftn, especially across the w half. Shra will then continue across the area Thu night. Rainfall amounts should be on the order of 0.25-0.50 inches.
Ensemble probability guidance indicates a 30-60pct chc of exceeding 0.50 inches, and only a 10-20pct chc of exceeding 1 inch. The highest totals are now indicated mainly east of M-95, perhaps owing to the proximity of the left-exit region of the LLJ being directed over the area and lending some divergence aloft. Overall model trend has been to lower cape available for parcels lifted from top of sfc based inversion. So, potential of thunder has diminished.

On Fri, low pres will lift across western Lake Superior or ne MN early in the day and then into northern Ontario. Shra will end from west to east as associated cold or occluded front crosses the fcst area late Thu night thru early Fri aftn. With sharp drying occurring in the wake of the front, skies will trend mostly sunny early Fri over the west and later aftn across the east. High temps will range thru the 60s to lwr 70s F. Will be cooler near Lake Superior where westerly winds are an onshore wind and also near Lake MI as a southerly wind component will linger. Deepening mixed layer under increasing insolation will lead to a breezy day mainly in the western UP, especially across the Keweenaw where gusts to around 30mph should occur. There is also a potential for dewpoints to mix out fairly nicely, with RH currently forecast to drop into the lower 30s (and perhaps even the upper 20s) closer to the WI border in the western UP. Given breezy conditions, this is worth monitoring for any elevated fire weather risk. That said, as this will be immediately following a round of decent rainfall, so fuels should be moist.

Dry weather will continue Fri night. Then, next shortwave will already be approaching by Sat aftn, resulting in a chc of shra spreading west to east Sat aftn/night. Model trends are toward a drier scenario, and ensemble guidance only indicates a 20-40pct chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch. Fcst will only reflect 30-40pct chc of shra Sat aftn/night.

In the wake of the shortwave, dry weather returns for Sun with sfc high pres ridge arriving. Model agreement has notably improved for dry weather to continue on Mon as a more amplified mid-level ridge shifts over the area. While there is more uncertainty in timing shortwaves beyond Mon as is typical at this time range, models have trended toward better agreement. Next wave is likely to arrive Tue, bringing the next round of shra in the ongoing active pattern. Shra chc will continue on Wed as a potential mid-level low approaches from the west.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions continue at all terminals into Thu afternoon before an approaching system brings lowering cigs and vsby restrictions in rain showers. Cigs lower to IFR this afternoon then to LIFR at CMX and IWD this evening and potential exists at SAW too, but confidence was too low at this time. SAW may also have fog and low cigs around sunrise before improving this morning. Rain then moves into SAW by the evening and conditions go to IFR.

MARINE
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Low pressure is beginning to move east of Lake Superior this afternoon, and though winds are turning calmer across western Lake Superior, they should remain elevated across the eastern half of the lake through this evening while shifting more to the west. Expect wind gusts generally in the 20-25kt range before winds fall back to around 5-10kts across the whole lake later tonight. Lighter winds under 15kt will linger across eastern Lake Superior on Thu. Over western Lake Superior, NE winds will be on the increase again on Thu as the next low pressure moves out over the central Plains. Expect NE winds up to 30kt by late Thu aftn over far western Lake Superior.
E to SE winds will increase up to 30kt over eastern Lake Superior Thu night. Probability guidance indicates a 10-30pct chc of low end gale gusts. As low pres lifts into northern Ontario on Fri, winds will shift s to sw. While gusts up to 30kt will continue over western Lake Superior, winds will fall off to under 20kt over the eastern lake. Over the weekend, expect winds mostly under 20kt across Lake Superior, then winds begin to pick up out of the E/SE early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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