Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Park, WA

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday night...Headed through the end of work week into the weekend our onshore flow regime which has sat overhead the last couple of days will continue keeping temperatures close to normal for this time of year. Tonight into Friday conditions will trend just a touch cooler with 850 mb temps decreasing several degrees aloft thanks to a weak passing shortwave trough aloft. While it won't produce widespread precipitation this feature will help deepen the marine layer compared to past days resulting in a 10-15% chance of light drizzle at the coast and increasing chances for morning cloud cover for inland valleys, mainly to the north of Salem. Thus, confidence is high daytime temperatures only rise into the low 70s across the inland valleys - upper 50s for locations along the coast.

We'll trend warmer again on Saturday once this weak shortwave passes well to the east towards the rockies, heights build aloft, and morning stratus decreases in coverage. Then Temps trend a few degrees warmer still on Sunday, which is currently expected to be the warmest day of the week with the highest chance for highs of 80 degrees or warmer over inland valleys (20-50% chance). -Schuldt


LONG TERM
Monday through Wednesday night...The long term forecast is highlighted by chances for light rain Monday night through Wednesday morning in response to an upper level trough. While most ensemble members from the 00z/June 12th iteration of the ENS/GEFS/GEPS show at least some measurable rain with this trough (generally under 0.1-0.2" with the highest amounts at the coast and the lowest amounts from Salem to Eugene), there are significant timing differences evident; some members bring rain into the area as early as Monday, while others hold off until late Tuesday. In addition, there is a small handful of members showing no rain at all, mainly from the GEFS/GEPS. Nevertheless, the NBM is showing a 20-40% chance for 48-hr rain amounts of 0.1" or more from 5am Monday to 5am Wednesday, except 50-60% across southwest WA and 60-75% along the coast. As if often the case this time of year, coastal locations and more northern locations are favored to see the most rain, assuming rain does occur with this system. -TK

AVIATION
Upper level low pressure remains over the PacNW through the TAF period, continuing north to northwest surface winds over NW Oregon and SW Washington. Winds expected to become light around 3-6 kts after 06-08z Fri for all terminals. Winds increase again after 18-21z Fri with inland winds 7-10 kts with gusts to 18- 20 kts and coastal winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.
Predominately VFR conditions expected through the TAF period except for KAST where there's an 80-90% chance of MVFR ceilings through 18- 21z Fri and KPDX and KTTD where there's a 40-60% chance of MVFR ceilings from 11-17z Fri.

*KTTD ASOS is currently out of commission except for altimeter and will be AMD not SKED.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions through the TAF period except for a 40-60% chance of MVFR ceilings from 11-17z Fri.
North to northwest winds decreasing to 3-6 kts after 08z Fri, increasing again to 8-11 kts with gusts up to 18 kts after 21z Fri.
-HEC

MARINE
North/northwesterly flow continues as a a broad, upper level trough pushes inland through tomorrow. Winds generally 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt through Friday morning. Seas 7 to 9 ft at 8 to 9 seconds. This will result in steep and choppy conditions at times across all waters. Added the inner waters to the current Small Craft Advisory and extended all Small Craft Advisories through at least Friday night as seas are expected to remain elevated. Will note that conditions are marginal so conditions may not be met at times. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ251>253.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ271>273.