Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Park, WA

SHORT TERM
Now through Monday Night...Clouds are beginning to dissipate in the northern portions of the forecast area while the southern potions remain under dense cloud cover. These clouds have been an inhibiting factor to significant daytime heating like we saw yesterday. However, where skies have cleared, seeing about a degree an hour of warming. To the south, a low aloft is spinning over Northern California. This low continues to be the main weather maker today as it encourages southeasterly flow and wrap around moisture. While radar has showed showers throughout the area, accumulation has been minimal. This is mainly due to the significant amount of dry air right at the surface and above 5000 ft. The precipitation has had the opportunity to evaporate before reaching the ground (this is called virga).

Overnight the low will shift east slowly which will enhance the precipitation potential more. Based on high resolution models, there is good consensus in precipitation falling along eastern Lane and Linn counties through Saturday morning. Accumulation expected to be highest along the lee side of the Cascades.
Because conditions will be showery, exact accumulation is difficult to narrow down. Under stronger showers where the atmosphere is moist enough, precipitation will be higher. In contrast, there are many areas that will see little to no accumulation. In addition to the precipitation, the east-west pressure gradient will reach around 10 mb. Expect gusty westerly winds through the Gorge, especially in the Upper Hood River Valley.

Onshore flow persists through the week which will keep temperatures moderated. -Muessle

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday...The weak ridge will break down on Tuesday as a eroding shortwave trough advects inland from the Northeast Pacific. This shortwave will produce more widespread showers over southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. This is a fairly fast moving system. Humidity between 850-250 mb will dry significantly which can be observed in soundings from the area. This will lead to lower humidity along the mountains and clear skies. On Wednesday, the ridge will intensify and a thermal trough will form along the coast. Winds aloft (above 850 mb) will transition to the northeast bringing in warmer air from east of the Cascades. In the afternoon the trough will shift east of the Cascades, then back to the west side in the evening.

The Willamette Valley temperature forecast has fairly good agreement in the long term. The warmest of the next week will be Thursday (when the ridge is at it's peak). The NBM shows a high temperature range in Eugene of 76-80 degrees F. Along the coast, that range is in the upper 60s. Will mention though that the potential downsloping effects off of the coast range could cause temperatures to be higher around Tillamook. In fact, in Hood River, the forecast is showing the 25th-75th percentile of temperatures at 80-82 degrees F which is incredibly narrow.
-Muessle

AVIATION
VFR flying conditions beneath largely clear skies are widespread across inland terminals this afternoon, aside from increased low cloud coverage at EUG. A weak low over northern California will continue to support clouds and light rain showers across southern areas, although no impacts from rain are expected at area terminals. MVFR cigs are likely (60-80% confidence) at EUG overnight from 09Z through 20-22Z Sat. Elsewhere inland, a shorter duration of MVFR cigs is favored, with 40-60% confidence of cloud bases at 2-3 kft from 10-12Z through 16-18Z Sat. Flying conditions improve by Saturday afternoon, with clearing skies expected after 18-21Z Sat. Winds of less than 10 kt out of the northwest to southwest are favored through the period.

Along the coast, persistent marine stratus will see current MVFR cigs lower to IFR after 02-03Z Sat with 50-70% confidence. IFR or low-MVFR cigs will continue into the overnight period, with MVFR conditions favored after 10-15Z Sat as cigs trend upward.
Cigs will further lift with some clearing expected into Saturday afternoon, with cloud bases trending toward VFR after 21-22Z Sat.
West to northwest winds at 5-10 kt overnight will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt out of the northwest after 21Z Sat.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected to continue through this evening and tonight beneath largely clear skies. Clouds will increase overnight, with a 50% chance of MVFR cigs at 2-3 kft after 12Z Sat, continuing through mid-morning. VFR conditions will again be favored by 16-18Z Sat as low clouds dissipate. No vis restrictions are anticipated throughout the period. Winds continue around 5 kt out of the northwest to southwest overnight, increasing to 5-10 kt out of the west to northwest after 16-18Z Sat. -Picard

MARINE
Winds gradually shifting northwest through this afternoon, with wind speeds increasing by tonight. Gusts may approach 25 kt by late this afternoon, particularly in the outer zones. This uptick in winds is coinciding with a building westerly swell, pushing combined seas toward 10 to 11 feet by Saturday. As a result, Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for all waters by this afternoon, with conditions likely persisting through at least Saturday. By late Saturday night and into Sunday, both winds and seasons will begin to ease as high pressure weakens slightly and moves inland. The start of next week looks to be rather quiet, with seas around 5 to 7 feet and wind gusts under 20 kt. -Hall/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ271>273.