Saturday, May30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Hills, MT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 9:14PM Saturday May 30, 2020 1:56 AM MDT (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:41PMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Hills, MT
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location: 46.57, -112.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 300547 AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1140 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

Updated Aviation Section.

UPDATE.

Main update this evening was to mostly remove mention of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms developed over Southwest Montana the last few hours, but they have since diminished or moved out of the forecast area. Analysis still shows weak instability across the area, but it will continue to decrease with the loss of daytime heating, and the disturbance responsible for the thunderstorm initiation has moved out of the area. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast appears to be in good shape. Coulston

SYNOPSIS.

High pressure aloft will help warm temperatures to between 10 and 20 degrees above normal through the weekend. A few thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and small hail over Southwest Montana should diminish this evening, but another, more widespread round of thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon and evening, with the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. A breakdown of the ridge next week will likely keep temperatures about 10 degrees above normal with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms once again during the mid to late week period.

AVIATION. Updated 1140 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020 (30/06Z TAF Package)

VFR conditions will mostly continue through Saturday morning across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana. A few thunderstorms with erratic wind gusts and brief heavy rain are possible Saturday afternoon/evening. This could bring periods of MVFR conditions to the southwest and central Montana terminals Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds will remain breezy over the plains, becoming gusty after 18Z tomorrow. -TP

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing runway closure.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 650 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020/

This afternoon through Saturday Night . Moisture moving through a high pressure ridge will likely keep high clouds over North Central Montana through this evening. However, a weak disturbance in the weak westerly flow aloft will move over Southwest Montana this evening, likely causing a few thunderstorms to develop over the mountains. A dry airmass at the surface will keep the main threat from these storms being strong wind gusts (possibly up to 60 mph or so) from the stronger storms, but small hail is also possible. As the airmass stabilizes later this evening and overnight, storms will diminish and skies will clear. The high pressure ridge axis will then start to move east across the forecast area Saturday afternoon, causing the flow aloft to shift more southwesterly, which will increase lift and moisture over the area. However, lingering subsidence from the ridge will likely hinder thunderstorm development into the afternoon. The mostly clear skies will also allow temperatures to warm into the 80s for much of the area, which may enhance instability across the area. It is still uncertain whether this warming will be enough to break the cap aloft and allow significant convection (and subsequently strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail) to develop. It is possible that this may not happen until early in the evening, when daytime heating is subsiding and therefore making significant convection less likely. As of now, though, will continue to message the threat for severe thunderstorms and see how things develop tomorrow. Am anticipating the storms to decrease late in the evening and overnight. Coulston

Sunday through next Friday . A disturbance in the southwest flow aloft will move over Western Montana on Sunday, which will keep a slight chance for showers over the area with slightly cooler temperatures than on Saturday. A broad and weak high pressure ridge with an anticyclonic westerly flow aloft will then move over the northern CONUS Monday and Tuesday. This will continue the breezy westerly winds and slight chance of showers with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. However, a broad low pressure trough will then bring a more cyclonic westerly flow aloft for Wednesday through next Friday. Although this will likely not impact temperatures significantly (still looking at temperatures around 10 degrees above normal), the greater impact will be an increase in the chance for showers and thunderstorms across much of North Central and Southwest Montana.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. GTF 53 86 58 81 / 0 20 40 10 CTB 51 82 57 73 / 0 10 30 20 HLN 55 90 59 83 / 0 20 30 20 BZN 51 88 57 83 / 10 20 20 0 WYS 37 81 47 71 / 20 10 20 0 DLN 51 88 55 78 / 10 20 10 0 HVR 52 84 58 88 / 0 10 30 10 LWT 51 78 56 84 / 0 10 20 20

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Helena Regional Airport, MT3 mi63 minWSW 610.00 miFair63°F50°F63%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHLN

Wind History from HLN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E7N4NE5N7NE6NE7NE8NE6CalmW3W7W3S3W6
1 day agoW8W8--W6W6W3NW5N5Calm43CalmN84NE4N8NE5N7N6N4NW5W5W6Calm
2 days agoNW7W6W7--W7CalmCalmNE43W12
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NW12NW13------W9W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Great Falls, MT (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Great Falls, MT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.