Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Center, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 4:59PM Monday January 18, 2021 6:37 AM PST (14:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:02AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 249 am pst Mon jan 18 2021 combined seas 7 to 9 ft. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 815 am and 8 pm today.
PZZ100 249 Am Pst Mon Jan 18 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..High pressure will remain over the waters through Wednesday. A front will dissipate just north of the area Tuesday night. A weak system will arrive Thursday with high pressure rebuilding again Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Center, WA
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location: 46.63, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 181057 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 256 AM PST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday with gradually decreasing nocturnal fog into the week and nighttime temperatures cooling into the 30s. A low pressure system will provide a chance for showers on Thursday with snow levels between 1500 and 2500 feet. Dry but cooler weather is expected on Friday and Saturday. A frontal system may produce rain and lower elevation snow on Sunday.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday night . An upper level ridge will remain over the Pacific NW region through the short term forecast period, and support dry weather for SW Washington and NW Oregon. Satellite imagery shows fog and low clouds in the interior valleys early this morning.The fog is locally dense with visibilities oscillating between 1/4 and 3/4 of a mile. Northeast winds will increase later this morning and afternoon, and clear the fog and low clouds along the coast and downwind of the Columbia Gorge. Clearing will be a few to several hours later for the Willamette Valley where low level flow will remain fairly north thus packing moisture into the terrain surrounding Eugene.

Favorable conditions continue for potential sneaker waves along the beaches through Monday evening as an ocean swell coming from the west with very long wave periods propagates through the coastal waters. The energy of this swell will occasionally drive ocean water further up onto beaches than what could be expected. Sneaker waves can appear with little or no warning and catch those on the beach off guard. Recent active weather has deposited heavy logs on beaches and lower lying areas near the surf zone that can be easily moved by a sneaker wave and pose an additional beach hazard.

East winds this evening and tonight will decrease the chances for fog development tonight into Tuesday morning. KDLS to KTTD surface pressure gradient will be around -5 mb tonight through Tuesday afternoon. This will maintain Tuesday temperatures closer to normal for areas influenced by east Gorge winds, while areas away from this wind influence will likely have temperatures slightly above normal. The winds weaken Tuesday night as the upper level ridge briefly flattens, but think the dew point temperatures near the surface will be too low to support much fog or low clouds, and radiation cooling will lead to many areas near freezing overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The chillier start to the day will result in slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday afternoon. ~TJ

LONG TERM. Thursday through Sunday night . Models still vary on the details of a low expected on Thursday with the deterministic GFS keeping the low offshore and the region dry, and the deterministic ECMWF model forecasting the low will produce showers as it moves north to south across Washington and Oregon. None of the solutions are forecasting impactful rainfall amounts although snow levels will be much lower (~2000 feet) than the recent rain events. The airmass will be much cooler Thursday with 850 mb temperatures possibly lowering to 0 degC, and expect high temperatures to be 3 to 5 degrees cooler Thursday afternoon. Cool north flow will flavor the forecast for Friday and Saturday keeping temperatures on the cool side with no precipitation expected.

There is a little more model agreement on the next low which may bring a front over the area on Sunday. Moisture is more impressive with this system, and the preceding cooler conditions provides the potential for a brief period of snow at or below 1000 feet with the onset of the rain. Snow levels will mostly be around 1000 feet, but the Upper Hood River Valley and the central Columbia Gorge may have snow levels lower than 1000 feet due to trapped cold air. South flow at the lower levels and west flow slightly higher up should rise snow levels quickly to above 1500 feet, and before the heavier precipitation arrives, reducing the potential for snow accumulations at the lower levels. The Cascades, Cascade foothills, and higher elevations of the coast range are more likely to have snow accumulations with this event. Forecast confidence in snow levels, temperatures, and snow amounts for this day 7 frontal system is currently low, and expect there will be changes to the forecast and messaging for this system the next couple of days. ~TJ

AVIATION. High pressure remains over the area through the next 24 hours with offshore flow. Current night time enhanced satellite imagery shows a large swath of dense fog and MVFR stratus stretching from the Columbia River south through the Willamette Valley. This fog is not consistent from location to location though which means that the fog will likely vary and come "in and out" through the morning. CIGs will behave similarly going between a scattered layer at 2500 ft to becoming IFR. The southern valley is experiencing more northerly winds which is keeping fog at bay south of KSLE. Likely going to experience a variety of conditions that are ever changing through Monday morning. Coastal terminals are also seeing some fog development, however the offshore flow is causing the air to be slightly drier so it is less persistent. Ultimately, the TAF early TAFs are comprised of VFR conditions with many IFR tempos due to fog and CIGs. Any fog that does form should dissipate after 19Z Monday although it is possible that more stubborn fog will remain at terminals like KUAO and KKLS.

VFR skies will return and remain through Tuesday. Unlike this morning, tomorrow winds will increase which should keep fog chances lower. With the pressure and temperature gradient intensifying causing breezy offshore flow . especially around KTTD and along the Cascades. Temperatures will drop several degrees after 06Z Tuesday with temperatures nearing freezing overnight.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to: http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . CIGs at the terminal will vary between VFR and IFR as fog develops and erodes back and forth through the morning. Will need temperatures to drop a bit more in order for more dense fog to form. Any fog that does develop should dissipate by 19Z Monday. Offshore flow and VFR skies expected after 20Z Monday and through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will lower to near freezing after 09Z Tuesday. -Muessle

MARINE. Settled weather expected over the next few days as high pressure remains anchored over the area with a slight thermally induced trough forming over the Pacific NW. As is common with high pressure, expecting northerly winds around 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. Winds will be marginal Small Craft Advisory levels through Tuesday morning as winds become offshore and ease well below 20 kt gusts. As the thermally induced trough intensifies through Tuesday, offshore flow will reach the peak and could experience some breezier winds along the coastal gaps in terrain. Seas are in their last stage of heights above 10 ft and they will subside late Monday night to around 7 to 9 ft with a 16 second period. Could see some isolated combined seas to 10 ft however those would likely only occur in the outer most portions of the waters. Could see a return of small craft winds and seas later this week, but still quite a bit of time.

There is a chance for sneaker waves near the shore through Tuesday morning. Refer to the previous sections for more detail. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 10 NM-Columbia River Bar-Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM PST Tuesday for Columbia River Bar.

Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 5 mi49 min ENE 7 G 8 40°F 49°F1034.1 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi61 min E 6 G 7 40°F 49°F1034.2 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 22 mi41 min 49°F12 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 30 mi41 min 47°F11 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 31 mi49 min SE 4.1 G 6 40°F 46°F1033.1 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 44 mi37 min N 12 G 16 47°F 49°F1033.5 hPa (-1.6)43°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA24 mi44 minE 60.75 miFog/Mist39°F37°F93%1034.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4W4W6SW7NW7W7W9NW10W9NW7N7NW5N8N8N3CalmCalmCalmE5NE4CalmE5E6
1 day agoE9E10E8E10E13SE7SE6SE8E7E7E10E9E6CalmE3CalmE3E4E8E4CalmSW7SW12W9
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4NW3W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4NE3E4NE4CalmE3E7E5E7E7

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Center, Palix River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Bay Center
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:59 AM PST     9.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:01 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:09 AM PST     3.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:39 PM PST     8.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:14 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:19 PM PST     1.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.44.15.97.68.99.497.96.65.34.13.53.95.26.57.78.58.786.85.23.82.72

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:46 AM PST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:01 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:13 AM PST     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:02 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:13 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:39 PM PST     1.16 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:37 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:59 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:06 PM PST     -2.50 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:15 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:15 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.522.11.91.20-1.2-1.9-2.3-2.1-1.3-0.20.61.11.10.90.5-0.4-1.5-2.2-2.5-2.3-1.5-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.