Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Center, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:53PM Thursday July 29, 2021 3:55 PM PDT (22:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:52PMMoonset 11:07AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 214 pm pdt Thu jul 29 2021 combined seas 2 to 4 ft. Bar conditions light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 945 pm today and 1015 am Friday.
PZZ100 214 Pm Pdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Thermal low pressure is east of the cascades and over california. The evening westerly wind in the strait of juan de fuca will be stronger Saturday night with gales possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Center, WA
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location: 46.63, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 292231 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 331 PM PDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Hot weather continues through tomorrow evening, with overnight recovery expected Friday night. Temperatures cool several degrees Saturday and a few more Sunday, but highs are expected to remain slightly above normal through mid week. Thunderstorms in the Cascades should continue through the evening, with a more expansive area of thundery weather possible across the Cascades and Willamette Valley tomorrow afternoon through Saturday morning. Off and on chances for showers look to continue for the Cascades through early next week.

SHORT TERM. This evening through Sunday . Oregon and Washington remain under a southerly 500mb flow regime between the trough in the Gulf of Alaska and the high pressure ridge centered in the Great Plains. On the western periphery of the high, warm weather prevails across the Willamette Valley and Cascade foothills, with many locations in these areas reporting temperatures already in the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development in the Lane and Linn Co. Cascades is ongoing as surface heating has eroded the cap and a horizontal pressure gradient force causes air to converge along the crest. Winds actually back slightly with height today, as 700mb flow has a slight westerly component that should keep convection along or immediately east of the crest.

Tomorrow however, is a different story. For one thing, it is likely to be a few degrees warmer, with many Willamette Valley locations making a run for the triple digits. We expect that most locations will fall just short of 100F, but still the NBM suggests there is a reasonable chance. It has the following probabilities of reaching/surpassing 100F at PDX, Salem, and Eugene, respectively: 30%, 51%, and 18%. Though this is much less severe than the heat the region experienced at the end of June, it will still be uncomfortable for most folks and dangerous for vulnerable populations. The other concern for tomorrow is convection, which seems both more likely and more expansive in areal extent. Model consensus is that mid-level flow will become southeasterly in the evening, which should allow convection that again develops over the Cascades to drift into the foothills and perhaps even the Willamette Valley in the evening. The NAM, GFS, CMC, and SREF currently suggest convection may enter the Willamette Valley Friday evening/night - which seems distinctly possible given the elevated instability. Some models are suggesting that there may be some convection into the Coast Range, but confidence remains very low so have left out of the forecast.

If convection and/or clouds move over the Willamette Valley Friday night, radiational cooling will be inhibited and temperatures will stay warm into Saturday morning. However, these same clouds would reflect incoming solar radiation to mitigate surface heating on Saturday . if they stick around. Thus, the Heat Advisory has been trimmed to expire Saturday morning. The convection forecast for Saturday evening through Sunday is substantially more difficult than tomorrow's. With less surface heating, instability looks to be a bit lower, but the NAM and GFS suggest convection could develop in the more unstable airmass east of the Cascades and subsequently move northwestward across the northeastern tier of our forecast area, mainly in southern WA. At this time, chances for precipitation have been added there account for that possibility. -Bumgardner

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Wednesday . Long range models agree that a northward-moving, negatively-tilted shortwave trough will pass through the area during the Sunday night through Monday afternoon timeframe. East-southeasterly flow ahead of this feature could promote another round of showers for the northeastern tier of the forecast area Sunday night. Beyond Sunday night, the deterministic models diverge with the Canadian and GFS suggesting a more progressive pattern to bring in the quasi-stationary upper-level low currently in the Gulf of Alaska. The ECMWF is holding that system in place through midweek. A more progressive pattern would favor cooler temperatures, and perhaps a chance for widespread rain (without thunder). On the other hand, a slower pattern - such as the one depicted by the ECMWF - would keep us warmer, and would likely favor a continued chance for thundery weather along the Cascades through the end of the period. With confidence lacking, it seems prudent to stick with the NBM's guidance at this time, but chances are the forecast will swing in one of two directions depending on which scenario plays out. -Bumgardner

AVIATION. Currently, VFR under clear skies across most of the forecast area. The exception at this time is the shallow marine stratus/fog along the coast which is resulting in LIFR conditions. With the shallow marine layer expect improvement to VFR after 17Z Thursday, with breezy N winds gusting up to 25 kt expected along the coast through 06Z Friday.

VFR conditions will persist through the current TAF period inland. However, isolated showers may develop after 18Z Thursday and likely persist through 06Z Friday along the Cascades. In addition to the isolated showers, isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Cascades east of KEUG through the same time period. No significant impacts are anticipated for the Willamette Valley at this time.

Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to return along the coast around 04Z Friday as marine stratus is expected to return.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR expected through the current TAF period, with light to moderate NW SFC winds. Ground crews can expect a hot afternoon with highs well into the 90s. Showers are possible along the Cascades after 18Z Thursday through 06Z Friday. /42

MARINE. Typical summer pattern expected for the next several days. Increased heating inland on Thursday should strengthen the thermally induced low pressure over SW Oregon and NW California. There is a chance cloud cover increases Thu afternoon which could weaken the thermal trough, but most models show widespread gusts to 25 kt across the waters. Thus we maintained a Small Craft Advisory on Thu from noon through midnight for all waters, extending overnight for the outer waters. Similar diurnal northerly wind pattern is expected Friday into the weekend. Seas will remain primarily wind-driven with background swells generally remaining 3 ft or less through the weekend. Weagle/DDH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Central Oregon Cascade Foothills-Mt. Hood National Forest West of Cascade Crest-North Oregon Cascade Foothills-Willamette National Forest.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley-Upper Hood River Valley-Western Columbia River Gorge.

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Willamette National Forest.

WA . Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-Western Columbia River Gorge.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM PDT Friday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight PDT tonight for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 5 mi61 min N 14 G 17 73°F 64°F1017 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi79 min NNW 20 G 24 58°F 58°F1017.6 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 22 mi59 min 53°F3 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 30 mi59 min 57°F3 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 31 mi61 min WSW 8 G 11 73°F 73°F1016.1 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 44 mi45 min NNW 18 G 21 60°F 60°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA24 mi62 minW 810.00 miFair82°F62°F51%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Center, Palix River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Bay Center
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Thu -- 05:27 AM PDT     7.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:02 PM PDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:07 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:16 PM PDT     7.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:50 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.43.85.26.47.27.26.453.52.110.41.12.64.35.87.27.97.76.85.54.22.9

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:35 AM PDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:28 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM PDT     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:00 PM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:08 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:05 PM PDT     1.98 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:22 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:43 PM PDT     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.91.31.31.10.5-0.6-1.8-2.4-2.6-2.3-1.3-01.11.821.91.40.5-0.8-1.8-2.3-2.4-1.9

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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