Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Center, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:49PM Friday February 21, 2020 4:09 AM PST (12:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:37AMMoonset 3:53PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 225 am pst Fri feb 21 2020 combined seas around 5 to 8 ft. Bar conditions light becoming moderate during the ebbs. Maximum ebb currents will occur around around 300 am and 315 pm today. The afternoon ebb current will be strong.
PZZ100 225 Am Pst Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Light onshore flow will develop today. A weak front will move through the area Saturday. A stronger front and vigorous low pressure system will arrive Sunday. Onshore flow will ease Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Center, WA
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location: 46.63, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 211118 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 302 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Varying degrees of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will bring cool nights, mild days, and mainly dry weather through next week. The main exception to this will be on Sunday and early Monday when a storm system will bring valley rain and mountain snow.

SHORT TERM. Today through Monday . Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows a weak and subtle shortwave trough crossing the Pacific Northwest. This system will help to turn pressure gradients weakly onshore, which should result in increasing marine clouds along the coast later today. Otherwise, expect a continuation of mild temperatures and occasional waves of mid and high level clouds passing overhead across the rest of the area today.

Models are in good agreement a low amplitude shortwave trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska will shift eastward into British Columbia Saturday. This will likely drag a dying front southeastward into our northern zones Saturday. The best chances for rain appear across Clatsop, Wahkiakum and Pacific Counties, but between timing differences and some operational/ensemble guidance suggesting a dry forecast, have held PoPs in the slight chance to low end chance categories per NBM guidance for now across these aforementioned counties Saturday.

A stronger front looks to then move across the forecast area late Saturday night into early Sunday. This front will bring a period of windy conditions to the coast and while high winds do not appear likely, it could be close along our beaches and headlands. In addition, this front will bring valley rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will likely lower well below the Cascade passes on Sunday so another round of hazardous travel conditions will likely develop. There is still some uncertainty with regards to QPF and Cascade snow amounts over the weekend, though. The south Washington Cascades appear the most likely to receive advisory level accumulations of 6- 12", but it's certainly possible the Mt Hood portion of the north Oregon Cascades could also see similar snowfall totals.

Models are in good agreement shortwave ridging will build northward over the eastern Pacific Monday. As this occurs, height fields increase enough across the region Sunday night into Monday to result in decreasing shower activity during this time. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Monday night through Thursday . Models and their ensembles are in good agreement the shortwave ridge over the eastern Pacific will slide eastward across the region Monday night and result in dry weather across the entire region. While models and their ensembles generally agree a shortwave ridge will likely be centered over the West Coast of the US throughout much of the rest of the extended forecast as well, a weak shortwave trough will attempt to flatten the ridge Tuesday into early Wednesday. This may result in a weak front and the possibility of some light rain sliding into our northern zones Tuesday or early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect more cool nights with high temperatures topping out near to slightly above average next week. /Neuman

AVIATION. VFR conditions expected to continue over the interior over the next 24 hours. Patchy fog and LIFR/IFR conditions have developed in the vicinity of KEUG and are expected to remain through 18Z Friday. Coastal locations will maintain VFR conditions, but could decay into IFR/LIFR conditions as fog and/or low stratus might develop around 00Z Saturday as marine air returns with onshore flow.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions continue to persist for the next 24 hours. /42

MARINE. High pressure remains over the area with a westerly swell through Saturday. Seas 5 to 7 ft through Friday, but building to 8 to 10 ft Saturday. Saturday night, a ~995 mb low moves towards Vancouver Island and slides eastward.

The main portion of this system will move over the waters Sunday afternoon, brining strong southerly small craft level winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Some models are suggesting that marginal gales are also possible, but consistency between model runs does lend to some uncertainty in the gales manifesting.

Seas will also build through Saturday night into Sunday morning into the mid teens for zones PZZ275 and PZZ255, while zones PZZ270 and PZZ250 could experience seas over 20 feet and maybe above 25 feet beyond 30 nm for the northern marine zones. As mentioned above model runs are still showing a fair amount of uncertainty. Therefore have issued a small craft advisory starting Saturday morning for all waters for sea conditions, but this could be changed or upgraded over the next 24 hours as more information on this system becomes available.

Conditions should settle down as weak high pressure will develop over the Pacific resulting in calmer conditions. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 5 mi69 min E 8 G 8.9 1023.5 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi93 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 39°F 47°F1023.2 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 22 mi69 min 47°F5 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 30 mi39 min 46°F6 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 31 mi69 min SE 4.1 G 6 38°F 43°F1022.9 hPa (-0.4)
46099 41 mi139 min WSW 3.9 46°F 47°F1022.7 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 44 mi79 min WSW 1.9 G 3.9 46°F 47°F8 ft1023.5 hPa (+0.0)44°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA24 mi76 minE 410.00 miFair33°F33°F100%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E9E10E6E10E11E9E9E10E8E7E5W5NW4CalmE3CalmE5CalmE6E7E5E4E5
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Center, Palix River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Bay Center
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:13 AM PST     8.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:48 AM PST     3.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:37 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:33 AM PST     9.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:53 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:34 PM PST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.58.47.86.75.34.13.84.55.77.28.69.59.68.97.76.1420.70.61.63.25.27.2

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:17 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:04 AM PST     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:58 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:25 AM PST     1.70 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:36 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:18 PM PST     -3.45 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:53 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:55 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:15 PM PST     2.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.7-1.5-1.9-1.6-0.800.81.31.71.60.8-0.6-1.8-2.8-3.4-3.2-2.3-1.10.11.11.92.42.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.