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Marine Weather and Tides South Bend, WA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 7:01AM

Sunset 5:55PM

Wednesday February 24, 2021 9:34 AM PST (17:34 UTC)

Moonrise 2:48PM

Moonset 6:01AM

Illumination 95%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA

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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 241149 CCA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Portland OR 345 AM PST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A mild and dry day expected today. Then, back to rain for Thursday as a front pushes inland from the Northwest. Cooler unsettled weather late Thursday through Friday. Mostly dry this weekend, but rain returns by the start of next week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Saturday . A shortwave ridge develops across the area today, that will bring a rather mild day across the region with the likelihood of most areas seeing some blue skies. However, this break in the precipitation looks to be short lived as the next frontal system moves across the area Wednesday night.

Wednesday night, a front will bring cold temperatures and a new infusion of QPF across the region. While temperatures along the valley floor and lower elevations look to remain above freezing through Saturday, snow levels will drop to around 2500 to 3500 feet. Perturbations within the upper level flow look to maintain the lower snow levels, in addition to providing additional shots of QPF with notable orographic precipitation enhancement along the Cascades through Saturday.

As a result this will likely bring 10 to 20 inches of new snow accumulation for the south Washington Casacdes and northern Oregon Cascades through Saturday. Therefore, have issued a Winter Weather Watch for snow for areas above 2500 ft for the south Washington Cascades and 3500 ft for the north Oregon Cascades. The Lane County Casacdes could also see some accumulations similar to those mentioned above starting Friday but have chosen to not issue anything at this time given that some uncertainty remains as to snowfall amounts and timing.

Saturday, another pattern shift is in store as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds in over the area resulting in drier weather returning. /42

LONG TERM. Saturday night through Wednesday . Saturday night looks to be dry but as Sunday approaches precipitation re-enters the forecast. The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models have a trough diving down from Canada bringing the next round of precipitation as a shot of colder air. Models have 850 mb temperatures between -4C to -8C with varying amounts of precipitation. Given that model solutions diverge significantly by Tuesday have chosen to not deviate much from the NBM solution at this time. /42

AVIATION. 12Z TAFs: Northwest onshore flow will become more north this morning. Showers lasted overnight and will taper off this morning. Infrared satellite loop showing a back edge to the showers now (10Z) moving south of KHQM with clearing skies following. Should see the same trend into northwest OR this morning. Expect VFR conditions to prevail but may see MVFR cigs 12-18Z where there is sufficient clearing. May also see spots of fog in the Tualatin valley and lower Columbia river too. CONShort guidance indicating cigs 025-035 from 12-19Z KSLE northward. Interesting that it does not include areas like KKLS where would expect similar conditions as well.

The high-resolution cloud guidance HREF suggests any valley fog/stratus dissipates by 20Z, followed by passing high clouds. VFR then prevails in the afternoon and evening. Next front spreading rain to the coast late in the evening with MVFR reaching KAST after 09Z, while the remainder of the area expected to remain VFR.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Back edge of showers have moved south of the area, with a few isolated showers following. Satellite shows clearing coming in from the north and expected to reach KPDX around 14Z. This may provide ample time for MVFR cigs 015-025 to develop for a few hours this morning, though some guidance indicating cigs near 010 possible. Expect to see VFR to prevail after 19Z. /mh

MARINE. Northwest winds gusting 20-25 kt early this morning will ease this morning as high pressure builds over the waters. The high pressure shifts inland this evening as the next front approaches the region. This will turn winds to the south and increase later tonight with wind gusts 20-30 kt with the strongest winds over the northern zones - PZZ270, 250. The front moves ashore Thu midday with west to northwest winds 20-30 kt. Gale force northwest winds may affect parts of PZZ270 Thu night in to Fri, so have hoisted a Gale Watch for that zone. Wind speeds begin to settle down Fri night and will likely fall below 15 kt Sat. Models show a weak frontal system moving across the waters late Sun night or Mon morning, but not expecting small craft advisory wind speeds.

In addition to the winds a decent wave fetch will be pointed in our direction and bring seas near 20 ft Thu night and Fri. The current forecast peak is late Thu night 24 ft for buoy 46029, and 21 ft for buoy 46050 per Wave Watch model. The ECMWF wave is similar.

A High Surf Advisory will eventually be needed for this event, through not out of the question for a High Surf Warning for the south WA and north OR coasts given the current model output. Will refine the forecast for the next forecast cycles.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA . Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for South Washington Cascades.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.

Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA	8 mi	53 min	E 7 G 7	38°F	47°F		1035.8 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA	21 mi	59 min	ESE 6 G 6	37°F	47°F		1035.8 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036)	25 mi	69 min			47°F	10 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR	33 mi	47 min	S 1 G 2.9	35°F	43°F		1035.5 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162	37 mi	39 min			47°F	9 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA

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W16 G22

W12 G17

W12 G16

NW14 G20

NW16 G22

W15 G26

NW14 G19

NW17 G24

NW15

NW13 G17

NW10 G16

NW8

NW8

NW7 G13

N4

NE11 G15

E5

NE3

E9

E7

E8

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E6

1 day ago

SW11 G16

SW11 G15

W13 G17

W7 G11

W12 G17

NW13 G16

W21 G26

NW19 G23

NW15 G20

NW11 G14

NW16 G21

W15 G19

NW9 G13

W12 G15

W11 G15

W11 G15

W13 G22

W13 G16

W11 G15

NW13 G18

W11 G16

W9 G12

NW13

W13 G17

2 days ago

SW10

SW10 G14

SW12 G17

SW11 G16

SW11 G17

SW10 G16

SW14 G17

SW12 G19

SW15 G19

SW17 G22

SW15 G21

SW17 G23

SW18 G31

SW19 G24

SW17 G24

SW18 G25

SW16 G23

SW13 G22

SW13 G18

SW13 G17

SW11 G15

SW9 G13

SW11 G15

SW10 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA	22 mi	42 min	E 6	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	34°F	96%	1036.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

W16 G24

W16 G23

NW9

NW10 G21

W18 G23

W15 G21

NW18

W17 G26

NW9

W10

NW8

NW9

NW11 G17

N8

Calm

Calm

E6

NE5

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E3

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1 day ago

SW13

SW15

W12 G20

W12

W16

W16 G23

W24 G32

W17 G24

W13

W7

W14

W16

W10

W12

W15

NW11

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W6

NW11 G23

W19 G24

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2 days ago

SW12

SW15

SW17

SW16

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SW16

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SW20

SW21 G29

SW25 G31

SW26 G39

SW24

SW24 G31

SW23 G30

SW22

SW19

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SW16

SW13

SW13

SW13

SW13

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Tide / Current Tables for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Washington

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Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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