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Marine Weather and Tides South Bend, WA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:47AM

Sunset 4:28PM

Monday December 9, 2019 12:38 PM PST (20:38 UTC)

Moonrise 3:18PM

Moonset 4:52AM

Illumination 96%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA

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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 091730 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 929 AM PST Mon Dec 9 2019

Short term and aviation discussion updated.

SYNOPSIS. Dry today, but wet pattern resumes Tue, as a series of front line up to push into the Pac NW this week. More rain arrives later Wed, with rather wet Thu on tap. The wet unsettled weather continuing into next weekend, though there is some hints of drying later next weekend. Snow levels stay at or above pass levels.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday . Visibility in fog has generally improved to above 1/4 mile, so cancelled Dense Fog Advisory. Fog will still be present in some spots, but expect the overall improvement trend to continue. The remainder of the short term discussion follows. Bowen

Brief ridging over the region today, with dry weather on tap. However, still have considerable low clouds across much the region, with areas of morning fog. No fog advisories as visibility in the fog will generally be a half to 2 miles. Any dense fog will be rather spotty and localized. However, A different case for the Willamette Valley from Wilsonville southward through Eugene, as will see widespread fog with visibility below 1 mile. Will put up Dense Fog Advisory for Central and South WIllamette Valley, for areas of dense fog. But, will not issue any dense fog advisory for the interior from Portland northward, as the dense fog for those areas would be patchy and localized. Air mass will remain quite saturated for this morning, so any fog will be slow to thin.

Otherwise, mix of sun and clouds on top above the fog, with mild temperatures expected again today.

Next front will approach the region later tonight, with increasing mid and high clouds. Thicker clouds do not arrive until later tonight, so will be plenty of time for temperatures to cool and air mass to saturate, with areas of fog for the interior. Spotty rain should spread the coast late tonight, with rain spreading inland after daybreak Tue. System is getting stretched apart, so support for any decent rainfall is limited. Will keep PoPs somewhat elevated, but rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side. Remains of the front will gradually shift inland during the day, with rain becoming more spotty in nature by mid to late afternoon.

Brief break for Tue night into early Wed, as weak ridge passes over the region. But, the next front will be fast approaching from the west on Wed. At moment, have decided to go with a 60-40 blend of the GFS/NAM and ECMWF runs, which have timing differences with arrival of the rain. But, all seem to agree that rain will be increasing over the region late Wed afternoon into the evening. Will trend forecasts in that direction. /Rockey

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . A front will move into northwest Oregon and southwest Washington on Thursday bringing ample precipitation to the area. While it will predominately fall as rain, snow is expected along the Cascades. This front is well ahead of a broad low pressure system with the low centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska. As the low moves eastward, zonal flow will take over. This generally westerly flow will usher in colder air from the North Pacific which will cause temperatures to begin to fall slightly on Friday. Snow levels will follow suit dropping to near 3,500 ft Friday night. A weak shortwave and continuous cold air flow will bring low temperatures to the mid 30s through the Willamette Vally, and snow levels below 2,000 ft on Sunday.

At this point, models are in decent agreement with the overall synoptic pattern, but there is quite a bit of spread in the mesoscale features. The spread in solutions is leading to less confidence in the output after Friday. /Muessle

AVIATION. Light easterly-southeasterly winds are helping to lift low lying IFR/MVFR stratus across the area. Models are in good agreement that conditions should improve to VFR ceilings by 21Z Mon. KUAO and KAST are still experiencing fog in the 1/2 to 1/4SM range but this should improve by 21Z as well. Continued stable conditions this evening may bring a return of IFR conditions Tuesday morning. However, models are indicating that the upper level ridge will shift east of the Cascades late tonight and early Tue which could increase clouds and southwest flow aloft likely inhibiting fog development.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Will see IFR/LIFR conditions in the area improve by 17-18Z with VFR likely shortly after. Increasing east wind will likely keep the area VFR through tonight, particularly KPDX eastward. BPhillips/mh

MARINE. Another quiet day across the marine waters with light offshore flow with seas around 5 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. But this will change as a series of front will affect the waters through mid week. By Tue morning the first front to bring southerly wind gusts 25 kt, but then quickly fall back to the 15 kt. Seas will temporarily build to near 11 ft Tue afternoon.

Zonal westerly flow around a broad low pressure over the north Pacific is expected to increase seas to near 15 ft by Thu. While the low is not expected to advance towards the waters, a shortwave embedded in the flow around the low will. At this time, confidence in this system is not high as models are depicting seas a bit higher than what would generally be expected with this system. It is possible that seas will be increased as the event comes closer. /mh -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.



PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon Tuesday for much of the interior below 1500 feet elevation.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon Tuesday for much of interior southwest Washington below 1500 feet elevation.

PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA	8 mi	69 min	ESE 16 G 19	48°F	48°F		1023.3 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA	21 mi	63 min	E 13 G 16	47°F	48°F		1023.2 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036)	25 mi	39 min			49°F	5 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR	33 mi	69 min	N 6 G 8.9	47°F	46°F		1022.6 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162	37 mi	39 min			49°F	5 ft
46099	45 mi	169 min	E 14	47°F	49°F		1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Toke Point, WA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA	22 mi	46 min	E 13	10.00 mi	Overcast	48°F	44°F	86%	1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Washington

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Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR

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