Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Bend, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday September 16, 2021 3:27 AM PDT (10:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:55PMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 229 am pdt Thu sep 16 2021 combined seas 5 to 7 feet. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 2 pm today and 215 am Thursday.
PZZ100 229 Am Pdt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A vigorous front will move through western washington on Friday. A trough will move trough the waters over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA
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location: 46.69, -123.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 160414 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 911 PM PDT Wed Sep 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. Chilly and mostly clear tonight, followed by sunny and seasonable weather Thursday. Increasing clouds Thursday night as a potent Pacific frontal system approaches the Pac NW coast. This front will usher in cool, wet, and blustery weather to the entire forecast area by Friday night, followed by cool, showery conditions through the weekend. Rain will be locally heavy, especially in orographically favored portions of the Coast Range and Cascades, where over three inches of rain is possible.

SHORT TERM. Tonight . Water vapor satellite imagery this evening reveals a shortwave trough sliding east-southeastward across southern British Columbia and northern Washington. This is resulting in some cirrus moving across our northern zones with otherwise clear skies across the CWA. With dewpoints generally in the mid 30s to low 40s, temperatures should cool off relatively quickly later tonight when winds die down. This should allow a lot of the typically colder valley locations like Hillsboro, Battle Ground, etc. to drop down into the mid to upper 30s later tonight with perhaps some patchy frost in spots. Do not think enough of a zone will receive frost to warrant a frost advisory, though. Adjusted temperatures in a few specific locations where weather stations in the past have realized these colder temperatures under similar nights. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track and no changes were made to the forecast. /Neuman

Previous discussion from Wednesday afternoon for Thursday through Friday night follows . After a cool start, temps should climb quickly Thursday under abundant sunshine, a warming air mass, and drier low-level northerly flow. Thursday afternoon high temps should end up in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the lowlands.

By Thursday night, there will be a sense of the upcoming pattern change as clouds increase and winds turn more southerly. A warm front aloft will push eastward across the forecast area while the trailing cold front approaches the northern coast Friday. Models continue to keep the strongest forcing and moisture transport north of our area on Friday, mainly toward the Olympic Peninsula and Vancouver Island. Expect occasional rain and drizzle north and west of Portland during the daytime hours. Meanwhile, areas south and east

of Portland will likely remain dry. This will likely allow temperatures to warm back into the mid to upper 70s, and possibly up to 80 near Eugene with dry conditions. Breezy southerly winds will increase Friday, especially along the coast where gusts to 50 mph will be possible by Friday evening, while gusts up to 35 mph are not out of the question for the Willamette Valley.

A potent cold front will then gradually slide to the southeast across the forecast area Friday night. This will bring significant rainfall amounts to the entire area by Saturday morning. A strong 120 kt upper level jet associated with this system will drive the deep moisture transport over the area. GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to strongly suggest at least a moderate atmospheric river involved with the front. Will likely see steady rainfall during a 6 to 12-hour period, heavy at times, as the front moves through late Friday night into Saturday morning. Many locations may see 0.5 inch to 1.0 inch of rainfall occur during this time period, with greater amounts likely along the coast and at higher terrain. /DDH

LONG TERM. Saturday through Wednesday . Deep upper level trough will remain offshore Saturday while post frontal showers develop by Sat afternoon. There may be a lull in precip at times during the day. Southerly winds will remain breezy, but not expected to be as strong as Friday. The upper level trough will move across the Pacific NW Sunday as several models bring another potent shortwave as a focus for precipitation late Sat night and Sunday. By Sunday afternoon and evening, northwest flow aloft is currently expected while a weak surface low is forecast off the Washington coast. This set up in particular could indicate a chance for a few thunderstorms to develop on Sunday across much of the area.

Total rainfall amounts for the weekend event continues to range around 1-2 inches for the inland valleys by Monday morning, and 2-4 inches for the higher terrain. The latest NBM continues to increase the chance of 1 inch of rain over the weekend to 93% for Portland, with a 55% chance of 2 inches. The cool air mass behind the front will also lower snow levels, potentially giving Timberline Lodge (6000 ft elevation) their first dusting of the season.

Showers are expected to taper off Monday as the upper trough exits east toward the Rockies. Should remain drier Tuesday as well with some light offshore flow allowing temperatures to warm back to seasonable normals. Models are not in very good agreement by the middle of the week. /DDH

AVIATION. 04z update: Not much change. Breezy conditions in the Willamette Valley will continue to ease overnight. Previous discussion follows:

Stable west to northwest flow aloft will maintain dry weather through early Thu. Mostly clear skies tonight, with variable cirrus clouds. Though stays mostly clear tonight, will see patchy fog in valleys. Also, will have pockets of lower MVFR or high end IFR along the S WA and N OR coasts, impacting KAST and perhaps as far south as KTMK.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Dry, with stable west to northwest flow aloft. Breezy northwest winds have begun to ease and will continue to do so through 06Z. Not much change overnight into Thu am, with mostly clear skies. Northerly winds will pick again to around 10 kts Thu afternoon. -Rockey/CB

MARINE. High pres offshore will maintain modest north to south pres gradients. This will maintain gusty winds of 20 to 25 kt on the central coastal waters overnight, though strongest winds will be to south of Newport. The Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire for the northern zones but continues through 5 AM for the central zones. Seas stay in the 4 to 7 ft range, though with gusty winds, expect locally choppy seas to 7 or 8 ft.

A strong cold front will push across the coastal waters later Friday into Friday night. Winds will become southerly, and pick up. Latest models and ensembles showing a decent chance for gale force winds on Friday. Have extended Gale watch to include all waters for Fri afternoon into Fri night. Will see how models refine timing and strength over the next few runs then consider a Gale Warning or Small Craft Advisory. Seas also rise a tad to 10 to 12 ft, primarily consisting of steep wind driven waves. -Rockey/CB

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 8 mi58 min W 2.9 G 2.9 52°F 58°F1020.8 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi52 min NNW 7 G 8.9 53°F 57°F1020.4 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 25 mi62 min 55°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi58 min NW 5.1 G 8 55°F 65°F1020.4 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi62 min 53°F6 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA22 mi35 minE 410.00 miFair48°F44°F86%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Washington
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Mailboat Slough
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Thu -- 01:30 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:08 AM PDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:01 AM PDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:13 PM PDT     3.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:24 PM PDT     8.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.84.12.30.6-0.30.11.12.54.15.76.87.26.96.25.13.93.13.44.45.66.988.68.5

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM PDT     -3.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:30 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:50 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:23 AM PDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:01 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:54 PM PDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:41 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:14 PM PDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:24 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.7-3.1-2.8-2-0.90.211.51.91.81.10-0.8-1.5-1.7-1.3-0.50.20.81.21.41.30.5-0.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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