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Marine Weather and Tides Tokeland, WA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:46AM

Sunset 6:07PM

Thursday March 4, 2021 4:07 PM PST (00:07 UTC)

Moonrise 12:00AM

Moonset 9:44AM

Illumination 62%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tokeland, WA

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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 042335 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 332 PM PST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. A rather complex system continues to slowly move inland tonight as the overall system weakens. Another front arrives Sunday, also weakening as it comes onshore. Generally speaking, the coast will receive the bulk of precipitation while the Cascades received far less. Low pressure slowly slides south while centered well offshore to bring some form of rain and snow for much of next week.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Sunday . High resolution models in addition to satellite, radar and other remote observation platforms show the combined frontal and atmospheric river systems continuing to slowly move inland with a slight east/west orientation. The system through tonight will slowly develop a more south/north orientation.

The parent low of this complex system is centered around 140W/50N, within the system as a whole are multiple embedded shortwaves which are increasing the complexity of the forecast. The first of these embedded shortwaves has already moved pasted our area and is located northwest of Vancouver Island. The vort max associated with the trailing end of this shortwave is what is currently directing the flow of moisture within this part of the low along with the moderate atmospheric river and, is causing the system orientation to become more south to north.

As we continue into Friday expect this system to spread and weaken as the bulk of the precipitation is pushed further inland as the moisture slides southeastward. Models are showing a few reinforcing shortwaves embedded within the parent system that will cause brief periods of increase QPF for the southern areas of our CWA.

QPF totals along the coast range between 1.25 to 2.00 inches with some minor enhancements along the higher elevations. The further eastward QPF values decrease with the eastern part of the Coast Range 0.75 to 1.25, with the Willamette Valley and Cascades expecting 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Areas south and east within our CWA should expect to the higher values of QPF. An exception to these values within the Cascades will likely be the South Washington Cascades and the associated foothills which could see values closer to 0.50 to 1.25 inches with higher elevations experiencing the higher QPF potential.

Also, with the general south to north orientation of this system, the orographic enhancement that is associated with atmospheric rivers is reduced to a minimal amount. Therefore, am currently not expecting there to be any significant threat of flooding for areas rivers, especially the Grays and the Nehalem. However, will continue to monitor the situation.

Snow levels during this time hover between 4000 and 5000 feet so am not expecting any unusual impacts on the passes from a couple inches of snow. Coastal areas will be mild and windy with gusts mainly 35-40 mph along the exposed beaches, headlands, and ridges with perhaps a brief gust pushing 50 mph through tonight.

As the reinforcing shortwaves mentioned above move through expect snow levels to lower to between 2500 and 3000 feet. Given that the bulk of the QPF potential has been lost, am not expecting snow accumulations greater that 6 inches across the Cascades.

The precipitation mode tonight will be primarily stratiform, then as the front moves inland through the overnight hours look for a showery mode to develop along the coast and push inland during Friday daytime, with showers expected to become the dominate precipitation mode by Saturday. Even though that the precipitation mode will be convective, overall atmospheric temperatures look to be on the cooler side, which is expected to suppress any thunderstorm potential at this time.

Sunday, the next system from the Gulf of Alaska makes its way into the region. This system looks will likely keep rain and snow in the forecast for the start of next week. /42

Coastal: Through Friday increasing westerly with a period of 15 to 17 seconds will reach the coast. This will result in elevated chances for sneaker waves at the beaches.

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Thursday . The low and associated front mentioned preciously looks to be rather stretched out and likely splitting. Therefore have not deviated from the NBM regarding precipitation chances and amounts at this time.

There is surprisingly good agreement among the models, especially given the shoulder season, keeping the low center a modest distance offshore. They then slide it south of our area towards the middle of next week. This minimizes just how much precipitation will fall over the region. Cannot say that any upcoming day will definitively be dry across the board. NBM PoPs are struggling, however, to show much above 40% for any given location. Areas across the north keep the better possibility of comparatively dry weather versus west central Oregon areas which will remain closer to the passing low. Temperatures stay on the cooler side of normal but still appear not exactly cold either. /JBonk/42

AVIATION. 00Z TAFS: A north-to-south oriented frontal boundary was located along the coast as of 2230Z. VFR conditions inland east of the Oregon Coast Range and southwest Washington Willapa Hills, with mix of MVFR and VFR along the coast. Coastal areas should become more MVFR early in the TAF period. The frontal boundary is expected to retrograde slightly west late tonight and Fri morning, which will promote more VFR for the coast. The front then pushes inland Fri morning for lowering flight conditions. Expecting increasing south wind along the coast through this evening, with highest gusts south of KONP. Speed shear is possible with model soundings showing 40-50 kt wind between FL010 and 020. Inland TAFS to remain VFR through midday Fri, followed by a high chance of MVFR in the 20Z-24Z time frame.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR through at least 20Z Fri, with cigs at or above 050. Will need to watch for LLWS through 15Z Fri, with east to southeast surface wind and south wind of 25-35 kt at FL020. The front is expected to move across the terminal Fri afternoon, with the potential for MVFR conditions. Weishaar

MARINE. Not many updates to the forecast as the system is on track. Winds are ramping up and gale wind speeds are being observed in the central waters while the northern buoys are beginning to see the gradual increase. Seas too are building reaching heights of 10-12 ft at present, but combined seas should reach 15-18 ft at 16 seconds by early Friday morning. The primary swell is comprised of a westerly push at 12 ft at 16 seconds, while the secondary, is a southerly fresh swell around 14-16 ft at 12 seconds. There is a stronger wind wave component which should cause significant waves heights around 17-21 ft Those will continue to spread northward. Likely will see the highest seas in the central outer waters. Winds will remain 25-30 kt with widespread gusts up to 40 kt. Could see stronger gusts in the central waters on Friday up to 45 kt. Likely will not be widespread. Winds will reach small craft levels by Friday evening where they will remain through Saturday.

Unsettled weather through early next week expected, but not nearly as chaotic as the current state of conditions. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Gale Warning until 8 AM PST Friday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Friday for Columbia River Bar.



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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA	0 mi	67 min	S 21 G 25	49°F	48°F		1015.8 hPa (+1.9)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA	15 mi	91 min	S 20 G 30	46°F	47°F		1014.9 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036)	18 mi	71 min			48°F	15 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162	35 mi	71 min			47°F	13 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR	36 mi	67 min	SSE 4.1 G 6	50°F	44°F		1016 hPa (+1.5)
46099	37 mi	137 min	S 21	47°F	48°F		1012.5 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth	48 mi	37 min	S 21 G 29		47°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA	19 mi	14 min	S 18 G 26	6.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy	49°F	45°F	86%	1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington (3)

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Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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