Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tokeland, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 4:28PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:05 PM PST (23:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 4:53AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 227 pm pst Mon dec 9 2019 combined seas 4 to 6 feet. Bar conditions light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 230 pm today, 3 am Tuesday morning, and 315 pm Tuesday afternoon. The ebb on Tuesday afternoon will be strong.
PZZ100 227 Pm Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight. A weakening front will then move through the area on Tuesday, before a stronger frontal system crosses the area Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tokeland, WA
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location: 46.71, -123.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 092255 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 255 PM PST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dry today, but wet pattern resumes Tue, as a series of fronts line up to push into the Pac NW this week. More rain arrives later Wed, with rather wet Thu on tap. The wet unsettled weather continues into next weekend, though there are some hints of drying later next weekend. Snow levels stay at or above pass levels through at least midweek.

SHORT TERM. This afternoon through Thursday . The next front will approach the region later tonight, with increasing mid and high clouds. Thicker clouds do not arrive until later tonight, so will be plenty of time for temperatures to cool and air mass to saturate, with areas of fog for the interior. Rain should spread to the coast late tonight, then inland generally after daybreak Tuesday. The system is getting stretched apart, so support for rainfall is limited and rainfall amounts will be mostly less than 0.25". Remains of the front will gradually shift inland during the day, with rain becoming more spotty in nature by mid to late afternoon.

Expect showers to continue Tuesday night and through much of the day Wednesday as weak ridge passes over the region. But the next front will be fast approaching from the west on Wednesday. Used the SREF for rain arrival timing Wednesday, which puts it at the coast Wednesday afternoon, spreading inland Wednesday evening. Some models are a little bit slower than this, so will continue to refine timing.

Another shortwave moves into the Pacific NW Thursday, keeping rain chances high. This looks like it could be a rather juicy system, with widespread rainfall totals of 1" between Wednesday night and Thursday, higher in the terrain. However, given dry antecedent conditions, don't expect any river flooding. Snow levels say above 5000 ft through Thursday, so don't expect much snow accumulation on the Cascade passes. Bowen

LONG TERM. Thursday night through Monday . Models and their ensembles are in good agreement a broad shortwave trough will be in place over the Gulf of Alaska with a broad downstream and low amplitude shortwave ridge over the Great Basin late in the week. This will place the Pacific Northwest in a progressive westerly flow pattern through the first half of the weekend. Expect several rounds of showers Thursday night, Friday, and again on Saturday as shortwave trough slides eastward across the area. Snow levels should gradually lower from around 4000-5000 ft Thursday night to 2000-3000 ft Saturday as colder air from the Gulf of Alaska trough spreads eastward across the area. This should result in at least some snow for the Cascade passes Friday and Saturday, but at this point, it looks questionable that 6-12" will fall in any given 12 hour period at pass level. There seems to be reasonable agreement that shortwave ridging will then develop over the eastern Pacific and Pacific Northwest Sunday into Monday. This should result in the area temporarily drying out Sunday and/or Monday, but there is a bit more uncertainty in how this time period will play out when examining ensemble data. /Neuman

AVIATION. A few clouds are still hanging around 1500ft causing a persistent mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings across much of the area. Continued stable conditions this evening may bring a return of IFR conditions by Tuesday morning with patchy fog and frost across much of the Willamette Valley. East winds will progressively shift to a southerly wind as a weak front moves onshore Tuesday afternoon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions should persist through this evening as increasing east winds will likely keep the area clear, particularly KPDX eastward. -BPhillips

MARINE. Offshore flow will continue through the day with southerly winds increasing through the evening. Winds will strengthen overnight to 15 to 20 kt with wind gusts near 25 kt in the outer waters with seas reaching 11 ft. The inner waters could reach small craft thresholds in some areas but the advisory will hold only for the outer waters at this time. Winds will weaken by tomorrow evening for a brief period before the next system however seas will stay around 10 ft.

A strong low pressure will form in the NE Pacific around 160 W tonight into Tuesday which will produce a significant westerly swell that could reach 15 to 17 ft according to the ECMWF. This system will not move across the area but will move north along the Canadian coastline. The strong surface front however will cross the waters Wednesday night through Thursday morning which has the potential for gale force gusts Wednesday afternoon according to the 18Z hi-res models. -BPhillips

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 0 mi83 min ESE 9.9 G 11 49°F 48°F1022.2 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 15 mi89 min E 8 G 13 49°F 48°F1022.1 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 18 mi35 min 49°F5 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 35 mi35 min 49°F5 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi83 min N 7 G 11 47°F 46°F1021.4 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 48 mi75 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 45°F 50°F6 ft1021.7 hPa (-1.5)45°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA19 mi72 minE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F44°F83%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3NW3CalmNE3SE3CalmNE5CalmNE3E6E4E6E6NE3E5E4E8E9E11
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1 day agoCalmW3NW3W3NE3SW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4CalmE3E3CalmCalm
2 days agoE11E8E5E7E5E7E5E7E6E4E7E7E6E7E8E7E5E4E4E4E3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington (3)
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Toke Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM PST     3.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:53 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM PST     9.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:17 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:27 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:26 PM PST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:38 PM PST     7.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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76543.23.24.25.77.18.59.49.58.77.35.53.61.90.70.81.93.45.16.67.6

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM PST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:51 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:54 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM PST     1.76 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:56 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:38 PM PST     -3.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:18 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:27 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:03 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:26 PM PST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1.6-1.9-1.8-0.90.111.61.81.61.1-0.1-1.5-2.6-3.2-3.3-2.6-1.4-0.10.91.61.91.81.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.