Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Superior, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday August 22, 2019 9:37 PM CDT (02:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:31PMMoonset 12:15PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 Expires:201908201330;;930312 Fzus73 Kdlh 201308 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 808 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019 Lsz144>146-162-201330- 808 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 807 am cdt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots, small hail, and frequent cloud to water lightning. This strong Thunderstorm was located near french river, or 12 nm east of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 40 knots towards port wing. Locations impacted include... Brule point, herbster, and bayfield peninsula sea caves. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4678 9191 4693 9187 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4671 9163
LSZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI
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location: 46.71, -92.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 230012
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
712 pm cdt Thu aug 22 2019

Update
Issued at 711 pm cdt Thu aug 22 2019
updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 338 pm cdt Thu aug 22 2019
high pressure will remain in play over the upper midwest tonight
through Friday night with a period of relatively quiet weather
expected to continue. Isolated to scattered rain showers over the
northland this afternoon will taper off by mid-evening with dry
conditions overnight through Friday night. A shortwave trough
observed on goes-e band 10 water vapor supported weak convection
even as mid-level heights were rising. Goes-e band 2 visible
imagery featured widespread shallow cellular convection across the
region. Since the convection is shallow, there are no returns
from our neighboring radars, so one is left to assume that showers
and sprinkles are possible given the remaining data. Temperatures
will be cool tonight and a few spots of frost are possible in
typically cold areas in the arrowhead and north- central
minnesota. Have a few areas with low temperatures in the upper 30s
tonight. Since those temps are for 2 meters above ground, the
actual ground temps may dip into the low 30s. A little warmer for
Friday with drier air overhead. Look for highs to reach the low
60s near grand marais and the middle and upper 70s from north-
central minnesota to central minnesota and inland portions of
northwest wisconsin. Dried things out for Friday night with a
slower progression of the weekend trough featured by the 12z
guidance packages. Lows won’t be as chilly with lows from around
40 degrees along the high terrain of the north shore to the
middle 50s in the brainerd lakes.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 338 pm cdt Thu aug 22 2019
wet fall-like pattern through much of the extended. Temperatures
generally trending downward after this weekend.

A broad trough will be located over western and central canada
with a shortwave extending into the northern plains on early
Saturday. During this same time a ridge will be located over the
western great lakes. The ridge will gradually slide eastward into
the central great lakes by Saturday evening. Expect this to keep
northeast minnesota and northwest wisconsin dry. Temperatures will
be mild due to southerly warm air advection aloft. Highs range
from the mid 60s to the upper 70s.

The shortwave will lift from the northern plains into the upper
mississippi river valley from late Saturday night into Sunday.

This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

The broad trough will dig into the northern plains late on Sunday
and into Monday. This will develop a low over manitoba or western
ontario and the cold front associated with the system will begin
sliding through on Monday. Have slowed down precipitation chances
from Saturday through early Monday compared to the previous
forecast. This is supported by the latest gfs ECMWF and gem
guidance and has been the trend over the past few days. Think that
the latest forecast is likely not slow enough, but will see if
models continue to trend this way in subsequent updates. Do not
expect any severe weather with thunderstorms moving in as there is
little instability available ahead of the incoming front and deep
layer shear is lacking.

The cold front will slide through much of the region by late on
Monday, but the low will cutoff just north of the region. This
will keep us in cool northwesterly flow aloft which will advect
cooler air into the region. This will generally be the setup for
the remainder of the extended. Expect temperatures to trend
downward Tuesday and Wednesday. Did not include a thunder mention
at this point in time as there is little to no instability on
Tuesday and Wednesday. From past experience this is a classic cold
air advection with scattered showers scenario in a fall pattern.

Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. On
Wednesday temperatures will generally be in the 60s across the
northland.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 711 pm cdt Thu aug 22 2019
clouds will slowly dissipate this evening leading to mostly clear
skies overnight. With the clear skies and light winds, however,
fog will once again be an issue at many terminals. Several short
term models and MOS lamp guidance suggest the best chances for fog
at dlh, hib, and hyr. With onshore winds from lake superior, added
moisture may especially favor fog development there. Where fog
develops, expect MVFR to ifr visibilities. Otherwise, expecting
vfr conditions overnight.

High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies to the area tomorrow.

Winds will be easterly to southeasterly between 5 and 10 kt, with
some isolated gusts to around 15 kt possible.

Marine
Issued at 338 pm cdt Thu aug 22 2019
generally quiet over the next 48 hours. There is a possibility
for hazardous conditions across the western tip of western lake
superior due to strong northeast winds and resultant waves on
Friday.

High pressure will build from ontario into lake superior while
low pressure develops over the northern plains. This will keep
winds out of the east northeast tonight with speeds around 5-10
knots. As the high becomes more centered over central lake
superior on Friday, east northeast flow will accelerate over
western lake superior. Speeds of 10-15 knots can be expected with
gusts of 10-20 knots. The highest gusts will be found across the
western tip of lake superior where there may be occasional waves
to 3 feet along with gusts between 20-25 knots. Expect winds to
decrease Friday evening into Saturday as the high slides further
east and winds shift to the south.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 44 71 50 75 10 0 0 10
inl 44 75 50 79 0 0 0 10
brd 45 76 54 78 10 0 0 10
hyr 42 75 49 76 10 0 0 0
asx 41 72 47 78 10 0 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Js
short term... Huyck
long term... Wl
aviation... Js
marine... Wl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 6 mi50 min NE 4.1 G 7
PKBW3 7 mi158 min E 5.1 64°F 1021 hPa (+0.0)55°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 12 mi38 min NE 12 G 14 61°F 64°F2 ft1021.4 hPa (+0.6)58°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN2 mi62 minNE 1210.00 miOvercast57°F48°F72%1021 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F93%1021.3 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN13 mi43 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds57°F48°F74%1021.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDYT

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmN7N8N7N5NE7NE8NE8NE6NE6NE6E3NE9NE10E11NE9NE10NE8NE8NE10NE11NE11NE12
1 day agoNW6N7NW9NW4W9W7W7W6NW7SW6SW7W10NW11NW8NW7NW10NW13
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2 days agoSW7SW7SW7SW7SW6SW6SW7CalmCalmSW5W20S21NW10W4W6SW7SW11
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W10NW11N10NW11N7NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.