Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Superior, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:25PM Monday October 14, 2019 5:53 AM CDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:13PMMoonset 6:55AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0030.000000t0000z-191001t0215z/ 912 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 915 pm cdt... The affected areas were... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4685 9162 4690 9139 4678 9138 4674 9150 4672 9160 4672 9161 time...mot...loc 0212z 265deg 44kt 4677 9127
LSZ145 Expires:201910010222;;024440 FZUS73 KDLH 010212 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 912 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 LSZ145-146-162-010222-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI
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location: 46.71, -92.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 140848
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
348 am cdt Mon oct 14 2019

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 349 am cdt Mon oct 14 2019
shortwave ridging will move into the northland today into this
evening with a potent shortwave arriving late tonight into
Tuesday.

Today will feature more clouds than Sun for most areas but there
will still be some Sun in spots, mainly across our far southern
areas into northwest wisconsin and this afternoon. It should be
dry today, although there could be a few light snow showers or
flurries over far northern minnesota, mainly this morning. Highs
will remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal and be from 38 to 45.

A shortwave aloft will deepen to a closed low tonight as it moves
through the northern plains. It will continue into wisconsin
Tuesday afternoon. There is pretty good model consensus moving a
surface low through the region with the center over the southeast
quarter of minnesota at 12z Tuesday with it over northeast
wisconsin by 00z Wednesday. The NAM is further north and is an
outlier. The upper low is strong with 130 meter height falls ahead
of it. Forcing with these features will be quite strong as seen
in the thaler QG omega field along with strong isentropic lift and
low level fgen. Model QPF has increased and we followed by
bumping it up as well and have MAX values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches
from around aitkin to the twin PORTS area and into northern
wisconsin. Precipitation type will be a bit of a challenge,
especially Tuesday morning. We lowered temperatures a couple
degrees on Tuesday and the low level temperatures will dictate to
a large degree how much snow falls versus rain. The GEFS and
ecmwf ensemble members do not indicate much snowfall but we do
have a concern that stronger precipitation rates will lead to
cooler temperatures and potentially more snow. The main area of
concern will be from the brainerd lakes and aitkin area to duluth
and up into the iron range. Even the coldest model guidance warms
highs into the mid to upper thirties for most areas so that would
support lower snowfall amounts but we'll have to watch for any
trends colder or for a faster onset time of the precipitation. At
this time we have snowfall Tuesday morning of a half inch to
around 2 inches and the bulk of this is expected on grassy and
elevated surfaces.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 349 am cdt Mon oct 14 2019
the extended forecast period continues to show a warming trend for
the latter half of this week, with a few rounds of precipitation
possible to bookend the forecast period.

Tuesday night will have gradually diminishing chances of
precipitation, in the form of a rain snow mix, as an area of low
pressure moves off to the east. This low should be located
approximately over northern lake michigan Tuesday evening, with some
cooler air aloft over our region to help support some precipitation,
with possibly some light snow accumulations over northwest
wisconsin. The better lift associated with this low pressure system
will have departed the region by this time, so precipitation should
gradually diminish. The only exception will be for along the lake
superior snow belt region, where some light rain snow mix will be
possible through Wednesday morning.

High pressure then builds into the region late Wednesday, and
lingers through the day Friday, leading to dry conditions. Despite a
mid-level shortwave diving through the region Wednesday evening, the
column appears to be just too dry to support any precipitation.

Southerly return flow will help warm temperatures back up to closer
to seasonal average for this time of the year, with highs Thursday
into the upper 40s and lower 50s to the middle to upper 50s Friday.

The next chances for precipitation are progged to be Friday night
and Saturday morning as a low amplitude shortwave moves through the
region. Increasing moisture could support some chances of rain
showers, mainly for our eastern portions of the forecast area. The
thermal profile appears too warm to support any snow mixing in with
the rain. There could be a more potent system that could develop for
Sunday night through Monday as a longwave trough will possibly
develop over the intermountain west states, and support a
strengthening surface low over the region. However, there is much
uncertainty with how this system will evolve, given the differences
in timing and spatial coverage from the gfs, ecmwf, and gem models.

Precipitation types do appear to remain as all rain at this time
with this system.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1231 am cdt Mon oct 14 2019
mostlyVFR conditions this evening will gradually fall to
widespread MVFR as lower ceilings move in from the north. MVFR
ceilings will persist through much of this morning before cloud
cover breaks up and ceilings lift toVFR at most sites this afternoon.

At inl and hib, a period of ifr ceilings are expected late
tonight through Monday morning, with occasional snow showers also
causing reductions in visibility to MVFR conditions. Winds less
than 10 knots through the forecast period at all sites, near calm
overnight then southwest around 5 knots for today.

Marine
Issued at 349 am cdt Mon oct 14 2019
northwest winds will gradually turn more southwesterly late this
morning, and continue through the evening hours as an area of low
pressure continues to exit the region to the northeast. These
winds will generally be sustained between 10 to 15 knots over much
of western lake superior, with some gusts along the south shore
approaching 20 knots at times today.

High pressure will briefly build across the region this evening,
leading to some light winds for a time overnight. However, a
strengthening area of low pressure is expected to develop over
southern minnesota into central wisconsin Tuesday, which will lead
to winds turning more northeasterly and strengthening Tuesday
morning, and continue through Tuesday night. The northeast flow will
have a favorable fetch over the open waters of western lake superior
to support some stronger wind gusts, building waves, and hazardous
conditions to smaller vessels along the south shore. Gusts after
sunrise Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening could range between
20 to 30 knots, with wave heights building to between 3 to 6 feet. A
small craft advisory will likely be needed.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 42 34 39 35 10 80 90 30
inl 42 30 42 35 40 50 60 20
brd 43 35 41 36 0 70 70 10
hyr 43 33 40 35 0 80 90 50
asx 45 35 42 36 0 80 100 60

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Melde
long term... Jts
aviation... Jjm jts
marine... Jts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 6 mi53 min WNW 17 G 25 37°F 57°F1011.9 hPa (+0.8)31°F
PKBW3 7 mi113 min WSW 1.9 31°F 1013 hPa (+1.0)31°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 12 mi43 min W 14 G 16 39°F 51°F2 ft1013.4 hPa36°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN2 mi58 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1012.9 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi58 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy31°F29°F93%1012.9 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN13 mi58 minW 1310.00 miOvercast35°F28°F78%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDYT

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW7SW9SW9W10W12W12W11
G19
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NW23W9W13W15W8W10W11W7SW7SW8SW9SW9SW8W7S7
1 day agoS19
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SW15S12S11S10SW9SW10SW9SW10SW11SW10SW8SW8SW9SW7SW8
2 days agoSW12SW20
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.