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LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Duluth mn to port wing wi...
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time...mot...loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 081740 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Potent upper level low pressure will bring light snow to the region; possible Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Iron/Ashland Counties

- Strong winds both today and especially Saturday for the region; possible Wind Advisory for Cook/Lake Counties for Saturday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A negatively tilted trough over North Dakota is noted on wv satellite this morning. An associated surface low pressure system over eastern North Dakota with an occluded front southeastward to south central MN with a warm front southeastward to central WI into western NY. Additionally a cold front is draped southward from the triple point to central IA into northwestern MO to a secondary low pressure over western OK. This deepening trough will transform into an upper level low pressure system which is expected to circulate through the area today. This will drive a few boundaries through with the first being a warm front followed quickly by a cold front by 12Z. Given the tight pressure gradient associated with the system winds across the region will increase this afternoon out of the southwest. As this system begins to move through a few areas of light drizzle/freezing drizzle/rain is possible in the MN Arrowhead. Despite a cold front moving through the region temperatures will be relatively warm with the strong surface waa. However, don't expect it to be as warm as yesterday given the expected cloud cover. Regardless, forecast temperatures will be approximately 15-20 degrees above normal.

By late this evening, the upper level trough and a secondary cold front with much colder air post front is expected to approach the region from the west affecting northwestern portions of the CWA overnight tonight. Given the temperature profile, it's possible that the precipitation will be start out as freezing drizzle due to the dry air aloft preventing any dendritic growth. However cloud tops are expected to build into the DGZ by the afternoon which will help with snow development.
Model soundings are showing this snow potential to be short- lived which will prevent any significant snow totals.
Approximately less than an inch over NE MN and 1-2" for most of NW WI.

As the trough moves through winds will eventually veer to the northwest. This will provide a great set up for LES over northern Iron and Ashland Counties. Currently in the forecast we have approximately 1-4", but WPC snow probability puts this area less than a 40% chance for greater than 4". GFS ensemble has approximately 2-3" with similar amounts from ECMWF ensemble.
The window of opportunity appears to be around 6 hours for potential snowfall. Therefore given the short duration of snow potential, holding off on a Winter Weather Advisory for now as confidence is low that the area may see above 3" which puts it in the advisory criteria.

By Saturday evening the pressure gradient associated with the trough wil continue to tighten. As a result, strong northwesterly winds over portions of southern Cook and Lakes counties are possible. Currently in the forecast, we have wind gusts on the cusp of a Winds Advisory. Holding off for now as confidence is low given the short duration of the possible 45 mph winds.

After the trough exits the region, the CWA will remain in northwest flow which will help keep temperatures closer to normal, but still above for the first half of the week before another possible warm up towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Widespread MVFR ceilings will continue across northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota this afternoon with pockets of IFR ceilings across northeast Minnesota. Southwest winds with gusts of 20-25kts will continue across the area this afternoon and into the early evening, subsiding after 00Z. A strong cold front will move from west to east across the area late tonight through Saturday. Widespread IFR conditions in light snow and stratus are expected behind the front. Northwest winds will increase behind the front with gusts of 20-30 kts, locally higher near Lake Superior.

MARINE
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all western Lake Superior nearshore waters through this evening for southwest winds with gusts to 30kts. Waves of 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, will also continue for the North Shore from Two Harbors to Grand Portage.

A strong cold front will move across western Lake Superior Saturday morning. This will turn winds to the northwest with gusts of 25 to 35 kts late Saturday morning through Saturday night. Small Craft Advisories will be needed. A Gale Watch has been issued for the North Shore nearshore waters were gusts in excess of 40 kts are possible (60-80 percent change).

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 142>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140-141.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for LSZ140>144.

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