Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Superior, WI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:58PM Thursday July 18, 2019 12:21 PM CDT (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:17PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0015.000000t0000z-190715t2345z/ 625 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 15 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Port wing to sand island wi... The strong Thunderstorms have moved east of the warned area, and the warning has been canceled for these areas. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4659 9085 4656 9091 4657 9097 4667 9094 4670 9089 4676 9090 4687 9080 4690 9080 4695 9090 4726 9035 4730 9002 4666 9044 4657 9043 4656 9041 time...mot...loc 2322z 283deg 34kt 4713 8994 4687 9026 4657 9079
LSZ145 Expires:201907152332;;116347 FZUS73 KDLH 152325 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 LSZ145-146-152332-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI
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location: 46.71, -92.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 181131
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
631 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 429 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019
chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue to be in the
picture for today and Friday. An isolated strong to severe storm
can't be ruled out today, but the chances appear to be low. Very
warm heat indicies are also expected for today and Friday.

The overall synoptic pattern will change today, with the upper-
level flow becoming more zonal. The upper-level jet stream will
strengthen, to magnitudes around 110 to 120 knots. Westerlies
will allow a couple of mid-level shortwaves to translate through
the region, with the first one being this morning and afternoon,
and the second one during the day Friday. This pattern will
provide weak large-scale forcing over the northland, which should
be sufficient to support some showers and thunderstorms. For
today, the surface flow will be from the southwest, which should
keep a lake breeze mostly at bay. Today's high temperatures will
be in the middle to upper 80s, with heat indicies ranging from the
90 to 100 degree range, so it will be quite warm and muggy,
especially over northwest wisconsin. As far thunderstorm chances
are concern, there is a good bit of uncertainty as to where and
when they will form, given timing differences among the high-
resolution guidance. Instability will be fairly modest, in the 500
to 1500 j kg range, so some thunderstorms will be possible. The
entire region is in a marginal risk of severe storms, so on the
low end of possibility. If storms do become severe, some large
hail and damaging winds can't be ruled out.

Thunderstorm chances should diminish overnight, only to ramp up
again during the day Friday as the second wave passes through the
region, with an attendant cold front. A perusal of model soundings
shows a strong cap in place to inhibit convection during the day
Friday, with any shower activity most likely farther north away
from the capped environment. There is a marginal risk of severe
storms over northwest wisconsin, but this will most likely be
Friday evening when the cap eventually erodes along the cold
front. Temperatures will be a bit cooler over northeast minnesota,
thanks to the cold front passing through. However, there should be
a window of heating to allow highs to warm into the upper 80s over
much of northwest wisconsin, with lower to middle 80s over
northeast minnesota. Heat indicies on Friday could warm into the
90 to 95 degree range once again over northwest wisconsin.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 429 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019
a change in the pattern over the northland is still expected to
occur over the weekend. The fast west-southwest flow aloft will
transition to northwest flow aloft Saturday night into Sunday. A
frontal boundary will remain near or south of the northland into
the first part of the weekend then a stronger shortwave and the
veering upper level flow will push it further south.

We have generally low pops Friday night through the weekend,
although far northern minnesota is expected to be dry Friday
night Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF are trending drier for Sunday and
if this trend continues will be able to reduce pops. Highs over the
weekend will be near or even a couple degrees below normal.

Most of the period from Monday through Thursday will be dry with
an upper ridge west of the region. High temperatures are expected
to be near normal but warm a few degrees by late week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 631 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019
an MCV was moving through central into northeast minnesota this
morning with showers and thunderstorms accompanying this feature.

In addition to the showers storms, there was dense fog and low
ceilings over the northland. We expect the visibility to improve
at kdlh khib when the rain arrives over the next 1-1.5 hours but
just how quickly is still uncertain. Fog and stratus elsewhere
will likely lift for most areas between 13z-14z. After this mcv
moves through the northland this morning, we expect a period of
dry conditions before additional shower storm development this
afternoon into this evening. Coverage timing of the storms later
today is still uncertain and later forecasts will continue to
refine the timing.

Marine
Issued at 429 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019
an area of low pressure will move through northern ontario today and
this will allow the wind to become southwest through the day. Winds
are then expected to remain southwest into Friday morning before
veering to west to northwest Friday afternoon into Saturday. Wind
speeds are expected to be 15 knots or less.

There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms through Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 86 65 85 58 20 30 30 20
inl 83 61 80 55 30 20 10 10
brd 87 67 84 62 30 30 30 10
hyr 85 66 88 60 20 20 40 30
asx 88 68 88 60 20 10 30 20

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Jts
long term... Melde
aviation... Melde
marine... Melde


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 6 mi51 min Calm G 1.9 78°F 66°F1003.8 hPa69°F
PKBW3 7 mi141 min SSE 1 67°F 1005 hPa (-1.0)65°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 12 mi31 min E 1.9 G 3.9 65°F 66°F1 ft1004.2 hPa64°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN2 mi25 minE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F62°F73%1004.1 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi26 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F71°F70%1003.7 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN13 mi26 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F68°F65%1004 hPa

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Last 24hrNE13NE11NE12E11NE14NE15NE15NE14E12E7E6NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NE4CalmS4W3S13CalmCalm
1 day agoE3W5E4E4E4E3E3E3SE4N3NE3CalmN4N4NE7NE6NE4NE6E10NE10NE13NE14NE12NE13
2 days agoE5E6E5NE4NE6E7NE10SE4CalmNE3SW12SW13SW10SW10SW10SW10SW8SW5SW8SW6SW6CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.