Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 7:12 PM   Moonset 4:50 AM

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LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 230545 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation is expected through tomorrow afternoon with total QPF amounts remaining under 0.2”.

- Cooler and drier conditions through midweek.

- Active pattern returns to our region late week and into the weekend with multiple chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Short Term:

Scattered clouds through this afternoon will become more widespread across our area as well as increase in coverage as a shortwave trough drops out of the Canadian Prairies and into the Northern Plains. This will be the focus of any precipitation that we see in the coming 24 hours. Initially a warm front will move through the area this afternoon bringing showers and drizzle with it as it passes through the area. It appears that Central Minnesota may not see much precipitation with this initial round due to a fair bit of dry air closer to the surface. Conversely, areas east of I-35, and near the border with Canada have better rain chances due to marginally more moist lower levels. By late tonight most of the precipitation from the front will have moved off to the east with scattered showers near the eastern edges of our CWA Around daybreak Tuesday is when our precipitation chances return as the shortwave finally moves overhead and produces more chances for rain and maybe some snowflakes on the back end. As the cold front associated with the shortwave moves North to South early tomorrow, we will see another bout of precipitation. Initially the precipitation will remain all rain but during early morning as strong cold air occurs, we will see temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s. With these temperatures we could see a few flakes in the colder pockets and where we have stronger convection where evaporative cooling can enhance the cooling effect. As it stands right now, the Minnesota Arrowhead and South Shore areas look to have the best chance (50-60%) of seeing some snowflakes mix-in heading into the afternoon. By late afternoon, most of the precipitation will have moved out of our CWA with much cooler temperatures present with highs in the upper 30s (closer to the lake) to mid 40s (Inland).

Extended Range:

Wednesday will be on the cooler side with highs remaining in the 40s and 50s with persistent NW wind making it feel on the chillier side. Very dry soundings indicate the return of near- critical fire weather conditions across far northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin during the day. This cold, dry spell will be brief before we’ll see a quick warmup into the upper 50s/lower 60s on Thursday as winds return to a more southerly component, which will advect some moisture for slightly less dry conditions for Thursday. Beyond this is when our active pattern returns with multiple shots for rain through the weekend. At the synoptic level, a potent shortwave will exit the Southern Plains on Friday and another one exiting the region on Sunday. Both of these will in some shape or form induce cyclogenesis of a low somewhere across the midwest/plains trekking towards the northeast. The track of these systems will generally be to the south of our CWA preventing any convective nature to these storms. What we will get instead is a good soaking of rain into early next week. Ensembles are highlighting 1-1.5” of QPF through the weekend this far out from the events which is something to keep we’ll need to keep an eye on for hydrological concerns.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Low pressure moving into the area will be bringing scattered showers today. VFR conditions occurring early this morning will be deteriorating to MVFR to IFR as low stratus moves in. Preceding this stratus and showers will be areas of patchy fog. This patchy fog is most likely to impact HIB this morning, potentially reducing visibility as low as IFR. Elsewhere, fog is expected to be highly localized and short-lived. In addition to scattered showers today, there is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm in HYR this afternoon. Expect conditions to improve to VFR late this afternoon into the evening as low pressure moves downstream and high pressure begins to build.

MARINE
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A Small Craft Advisory has been extended for the South Shore and Twin Ports until 10 pm due to models having winds linger a few hours later than previously forecasted. Strong southwesterly winds continue throughout this afternoon and evening as a clipper approaches and brings light rain over western Lake Superior. Light snow could be seen Tuesday morning. On the back side of the clipper, winds will shift to the northeast and increase to up to 30 kts, which will pose a hazard to small craft. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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