Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Superior, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 9:01PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 1:43 AM CDT (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:18AMMoonset 2:16PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0010.000000t0000z-200709t0945z/ 429 Am Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 445 am cdt... For the following areas... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... At 425 am cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to 40 knots, located along a line extending from 5 nm west of port wing, to 9 nm southwest of herbster, to 21 nm east of superior harbor, moving east at 40 knots. Locations impacted include... Brule point, herbster, and bayfield peninsula sea caves. Lat...lon 4668 9183 4690 9166 4699 9152 4706 9106 4689 9100 4684 9109 4682 9118 4683 9122 4672 9160 time...mot...loc 0928z 269deg 42kt 4697 9146 4678 9146 4663 9151
LSZ145 Expires:202007090945;;562769 FZUS73 KDLH 090929 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 429 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 LSZ145-146-162-090945-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI
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location: 46.71, -92.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 140313 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1013 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

An approaching cold front will lead to developing showers and thunderstorms this evening. An upper level trough currently located over eastern Montana will continue to work its way eastward, which will help to provide additional lift. The combination of the cold front and upper level trough is expected to lead to thunderstorm development after 00Z this evening. The primary mode of these storms is expected to be linear, as CAMs have been in decent agreement. However, there is the potential for some discrete convection, primarily in the southwestern portion of the CWA. A few of these storms may be severe, particularly in the Brainerd Lakes area. Main hazards include damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and very heavy rain.

Assessing the environment this evening, the ingredients for severe convection are present. 0-6 km bulk shear values are forecasted to be between 40-50 knots. MLCAPE values are expected to be between 1500-2000 J/kg. This amount of instability should help to maintain the storms, but limit the ability for large hail development. Moisture advection is expected to be plentiful as a lower level jet from the south is expected to advect a moist airmass northward. PWAT values around 1.5 inches could potentially lead to very heavy rainfall. When assessing the potential for tornadoes, the Brainerd Lakes have the most favorable environment according to SPC. 0-1 km SRH from the HRRR has been quite impressive, with over 400 m2/s2 around the time of storm development. One potential limiting factor towards tornado development would be the high LCLs, which are currently forecasted to be above 2 km. Regardless, the risk for tornadoes is still present and will be something to watch for in the storms this evening.

For Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms are possible, particularly in Northwest Wisconsin. A few of these storms may become severe in the afternoon. SPC currently has most of NW WI under a marginal risk for severe storms tomorrow. Looking at the environment, shear of 40-50 knots is possible, with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Possible threats include damaging winds, large hail, and a few isolated tornadoes. By Tuesday evening, the showers and thunderstorms will exit the area, leading to dry conditions for Tuesday night. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to feel much more comfortable, with highs being in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

A progressive pattern will be in place for the extended period while still maintaining above normal temperatures.

Overall, broadscale moisture is limited through the week, but a large plume of rich PWAT air gets advected northward by the weekend. This will set the stage for another good opportunity for stronger storms - especially since shear becomes a lot more prevalent as flow turns zonal. So, Friday through Sunday may be an active period for storms.

Afterwards, a drier air mass moves in and a weak upper level ridge tries to build to our west.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

VFR conditions are currently in place with storms expected to arrive this evening and bring deteriorating conditions. The best chance for storms will be between 8PM and midnight and bring periods of MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions as they move through. Storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain as the primary threats. Some fog is expected to develop during the early morning hours with HIB being the most likely. A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday as showers linger through the day. Winds will shift westerly overnight as a cold front passes along with the storms.

MARINE. Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

A cold front over western Minnesota this evening will progress eastward during the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are forecast to move over western Lake Superior early Tuesday morning. Some may be strong to severe. Winds will remain northeasterly initially and will veer southerly by 12Z Tuesday. Another round of thunderstorms is possible, mainly for the South Shore waters Tuesday afternoon. Some of those storms may also be strong. The cold front is forecast to pass over the lake during the morning hours and winds will veer southwesterly by late morning and westerly by mid- afternoon. Wind speeds will typically remain light, less than 12 knots, except locally stronger near thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will build across the region in the wake of the cool front for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds will remain southwesterly at 5 to 12 knots through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 62 73 54 81 / 90 60 0 0 INL 59 75 55 80 / 100 30 0 0 BRD 60 73 53 80 / 100 50 0 0 HYR 65 75 52 81 / 80 90 10 0 ASX 65 78 55 83 / 80 90 20 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN . Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS . None.

SHORT TERM . Unruh/JJM LONG TERM . Wolfe AVIATION . BJH MARINE . Huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 6 mi56 min 64°F
PKBW3 7 mi164 min SSW 5.1 78°F 1008 hPa (-1.0)64°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 34 mi64 min S 12 G 20 77°F 1007.5 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 55 mi64 min NNE 5.1 G 8 68°F 1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN2 mi68 minS 17 G 2210.00 miThunderstorm79°F62°F58%1006.8 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi49 minNW 14 G 195.00 miRain73°F65°F79%1008.5 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN13 mi49 minNW 51.75 miThunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist68°F64°F87%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDYT

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E4NE4NE7NE8NE10NE15NE13
G18
NE12NE12S11SE9SE6SE6S6S11
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1 day agoN10N9NE5NE9N6NE9NE8NE5E4NE3NE3E4E5E4E5E4E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3CalmS3SW3S3S4S3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmN3E3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmN10N7N7N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.