Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Superior, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 4:22PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:06 AM CST (11:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:57PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0030.000000t0000z-191001t0215z/ 912 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 915 pm cdt... The affected areas were... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4685 9162 4690 9139 4678 9138 4674 9150 4672 9160 4672 9161 time...mot...loc 0212z 265deg 44kt 4677 9127
LSZ145 Expires:201910010222;;609953 FZUS73 KDLH 010212 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 912 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 LSZ145-146-162-010222-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI
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location: 46.71, -92.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 121102 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 502 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 502 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

High pressure stretched from the Mid-Atlantic States to southern Manitoba this morning with a warm front extending from an area of low pressure in southern South Dakota into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Snow was seen north of the warm from from the eastern Dakotas into much of Minnesota, Wisconsin and upper Michigan.

A compact shortwave trough will move from eastern South Dakota this morning to northern Lake Michigan by this evening. A surface low in association with the trough will move from northeastern Nebraska this morning to near Albert Lea by midday to near Green Bay this evening. Snowfall this morning is seen at the nose of an area of low- level warm advection and weak fgen. As was the case in the days leading up to the event, the best isentropic lift and strong Thaler- QG forcing remain just to the south of our area. HREF runs from earlier this morning were keying in on some higher snowfall rates and forcing across northwest Wisconsin and have slightly bumped up QPF in the Price County area as a result where a time of 1 inch plus per hour snowfall rates will be possible for a time this morning. Timing of the system has been slowed a bit as well with a later arrival observed and a corresponding later departure. Additional snowfall amounts of around 2 to 5 inches are expected today from the I-35 corridor into northwest Wisconsin with lesser amounts elsewhere. Tweaked the ending time of the Advisory for Price/Iron and Ashland Counties and extended it to 21z to account for the delayed departure. We may yet see some isolated higher amounts in excess of 6 inches in that area, but expect this to be pretty localized and overall low confidence, so continuing to run with the Advisory.

As the synoptic snowfall ends through the day today, expecting lake effect snow showers to set up along the North Shore of Lake Superior and across the Bayfield Peninsula as winds turn easterly as the low passes to the south. With Lake Superior still mainly open, a long fetch with easterly winds and 850mb temps in the -10 to -12C range, chances for lake effect snow are fairly high, but not expecting a lot of accumulation with it through the overnight hours. Totals of around an inch will be possible across the Bayfield Peninsula with generally an inch or less along the North Shore. However, some of the CAMs are hinting at slightly higher amounts neat the Castle Danger area with perhaps isolated spots to around 2 inches in the higher terrain. Aside from the lake effect snow, quiet conditions are expected tonight across the remainder of the Northland. Highs today will be in the lower teens to lower 20s above zero with lows tonight in the single digits above zero.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 502 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

Our next weather maker moves across the area on Friday and Saturday. A fairly potent shortwave in combination with a decent mid level baroclinic zone and surface based inverted trough produces a band of snow that slides across the area from west to east beginning early Friday morning, continuing through Friday afternoon and night before ending during the day on Saturday. This is a fairly long period of snowfall, but the dynamics are not very strong and am only expecting between 2 and 4 inches for most of the area. Most of this snow will fall in the Friday and Friday evening time range, with easterly flow off Lake Superior. Am a little concerned that the lake effects will produce higher snowfall amounts over the higher terrain of the North Shore, and we may eventually need an Advisory there. However, for now most of this event appears to be kind of marginal, and we have one out for the ongoing event which I do not want to create confusion with, so have held off doing anything more than mentioning it in this AFD and the HWO.

A ridge of high pressure builds into the area for Saturday night and Sunday, which should leave us with a period of quieter weather with cold temperatures.

The first half of the work week will be affected by a strong low pressure system that develops over Oklahoma as an upper low moves across the Rockies. This system moves northeast across the mid Mississippi river valley and up into the Ohio river valley region, then across the eastern Great Lakes. This system will stay too far south and east of the forecast area, but will put us into a bit of a lull as far as active weather that directly affects us. Thus, I have an effectively dry forecast for Sunday night through Wednesday, with only some lake effect snow showers along the South Shore on Tuesday and Wednesday as we get into northwest flow behind this system. It also allows a fresh pool of cold air to move into the area aloft, and high temperatures for Monday through Wednesday stay in the single digits to around 10 above. Thursday, we get a shot of warm air advection as the pool of cold air slides off to the east which may produce a chance for snow, but for now the timing and position of it is too uncertain and have left no more than slight chance pops for now, and these mainly focused in the lake effect areas along the South Shore. This will also allow temperatures to moderate for Thursday, with highs creeping in to the teens.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Plenty of IFR overnight as a system crosses bringing snow. Current VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate except near KINL. This system will move out of the area Thursday with a return to MVFR.

MARINE. Issued at 502 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

Snow will affect western Lake Superior today with winds becoming northeast and increasing during the afternoon and tonight. These winds will cause building waves, which will produce marginal conditions for Small Craft, especially along the North Shore and into the southwestern tip of the lake late this afternoon and tonight. The winds switch around to southeast early on Friday, shifting the marginal conditions out of the tip of the lake, but maintaining them up the North Shore. For now it does not appear that we need a Small Craft Advisory, but it will be fairly close and we will have to watch conditions carefully. Any reports that ships can send us would be appreciated. Winds diminish on Friday and Friday night as another wave of snow moves across the area. Behind the snow winds should become northwesterly and increase for Saturday, which may also produce hazardous conditions for Small Craft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 18 10 21 13 / 80 30 90 80 INL 10 1 19 8 / 10 10 90 80 BRD 14 4 18 7 / 90 10 80 50 HYR 19 6 24 15 / 100 0 70 70 ASX 21 10 25 18 / 90 20 60 80

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001-002- 006>008.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ003- 004-009.

MN . Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ037-038.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ033>036.

LS . None.

SHORT TERM . BJH LONG TERM . LE AVIATION . Wolfe MARINE . LE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 6 mi54 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 6°F 1026.3 hPa2°F
PKBW3 7 mi126 min Calm 2°F 1029 hPa (-1.0)-1°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN2 mi71 minESE 31.50 miLight Snow0°F0°F%1026.7 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi71 minN 02.50 miLight Snow4°F0°F83%1026.7 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN13 mi71 minE 51.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist3°F-2°F79%1027.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDYT

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW6SW9SW8SW9SW10SW7W11SW5SW9SW12W6W5SW5SW7SW6SW7SW7SW5--SW5CalmS3SE6
1 day agoSW8SW6SW9W10W9W8W9W7W10W12W12
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2 days agoNE22NE23
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NW8NW6S6W7S6SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.