Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 4:22PM Saturday December 7, 2019 1:06 AM CST (07:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 2:30AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ144 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0030.000000t0000z-191001t0215z/ 906 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 30 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Two harbors to duluth mn... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4685 9162 4690 9139 4678 9138 4674 9150 4672 9160 4672 9161 time...mot...loc 0205z 265deg 44kt 4677 9135
LSZ144 Expires:201910010215;;609481 FZUS73 KDLH 010206 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 906 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 LSZ144-010215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 070600 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1200 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Updated for the 06Z Aviation discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Updated Marine section below.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 357 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Another day, another clipper system moving through the Northland this evening, with light accumulating snow possible.

Chances of light accumulating snow will increase this afternoon, persisting through the evening, as a clipper system passes through the region. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough and southerly flow around a departing high pressure ridge axis will lead to increasing low-level warm air advection, which will support these chances of snow. Latest SREF and GEFS ensemble guidance depicts a mean QPF value of at or below 0.06 inches for this evening, which should yield only some small accumulation amounts. The 06.12z NAM model soundings indicate the heaviest snowfall should occur from near Bigfork, MN, southeast to Hibbing and Two Harbors, as the soundings show more of an enhanced isentropic lift signature within a saturated dendritic growth zone, so we did increase the snowfall amounts slightly. We are still looking at snow accumulations of no more than 1.5 inches, with lighter amounts to the north and south of this axis of heaviest snowfall. Overnight lows should remain chilly, with values in the lower to middle teens.

The clipper system will quickly move out of the region no later than sunrise Saturday, leading to a dry, but mostly cloudy day across the Northland. Southerly flow will continue Saturday, leading to high temperatures slightly warmer than average in the upper 20s to lower 30s - warmest to the south. Another mid-level shortwave trough with an attendant surface low will bring more chances of precipitation for Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Precipitation types will be more of a challenge to pin down as a warm nose develops. This layer of warm air does appear to be unsaturated, with trapped moisture under a low-level inversion. This should support some freezing drizzle, which may mix in with snow. Accumulations from this precipitation should remain quite light, but the freezing drizzle may result in some slick road conditions in some spots.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 357 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

The main concern of the long term is the cold temperatures with only a few chances for snow.

A cold front will work across the Northland Sunday and bring a first shot of cold Arctic air into the region. Only light snow chances with perhaps some freezing drizzle are expected through the day as drier air filters in behind the front. An upper-level longwave trough will then move into the Northern Plains Sunday night with a surface low moving from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes by midday Monday. An inverted trough associated with this low will move through the region bringing snow for Sunday night and into Monday. The 06.12 suite of models have nudged this system a bit further to the north with snow now expected to impact more of the Northland. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected roughly along and south of MN Highway 210 and through much of northwest Wisconsin with lesser amounts to the north.

Low pressure will become established across Hudson Bay Sunday night putting the Northland into northwest flow both aloft and at the surface. This will result in very cold Arctic air flowing into the region. Lake effect snows will also persist after the synoptic snow moves out Monday into Tuesday night with the cold air streaming in. Some accumulations are expected with this snowfall, but amounts remain in question. Wind variations may move the areas of snowfall around as well during this period. Additionally, the entire Northland will see temperatures fall well below normal, resulting in daytime highs in the single digits below zero for most areas Tuesday and Wednesday and overnight lows in the teens below zero Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Dangerous wind chills will also be possible with these very cold temperatures.

The upper low over Hudson Bay will move east over the latter half of the week. A clipper system may bring some light snow during the Wednesday night into Thursday period with models then diverging on solutions heading into the weekend. A warmup is expected during this time, however, as surface winds turn more westerly then southwesterly as the upper low pulls away allowing warm air advection to set up.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

An area of snow is moving out of the area as of issuance time, leaving behind a large area of MVFR stratus with some patchy freezing drizzle. This stratus area is expected to spread east to affect all the terminals by 12z, with some sites lowering to IFR with drizzle and fog. Ceilings to lift to VFR/MVFR from 15z to 21z. The ceilings will lower to MVFR from west to east after 00z, with some sites even getting into IFR after 03z.

MARINE. Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Light snow is moving across western Lake Superior this evening, associated with breezy southwest winds which are gusting in the 15 to 20 knot range. Nearshore waves remain less than 3 feet, but out in the open waters waves are larger. These winds will diminish overnight and Saturday morning, but will increase once again for Saturday afternoon and night. These will cause building waves along the North Shore, and we may need a Small Craft Advisory for portions of the North Shore north of Taconite Harbor late tomorrow and tomorrow night. The South Shore may also need one depending on wind speeds. Timing and location are still somewhat uncertain. Winds will diminish and turn northwest on Sunday, allowing waves to also diminish.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 14 29 26 31 / 60 10 30 20 INL 15 29 18 24 / 50 20 30 30 BRD 15 31 26 29 / 10 0 10 20 HYR 14 33 28 34 / 20 10 20 20 ASX 12 32 29 35 / 70 20 20 40

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

UPDATE . LE SHORT TERM . JTS LONG TERM . BJH AVIATION . LE MARINE . LE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi54 min W 4.1 G 5.1 22°F 1022.8 hPa15°F
PKBW3 7 mi126 min SE 1 19°F 1025 hPa (-1.0)15°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi71 minSW 310.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1023.7 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast19°F14°F81%1023.4 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi71 minSSW 69.00 miOvercast18°F10°F74%1024.3 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi71 minSW 410.00 miOvercast19°F12°F73%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDYT

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSE5SE4E6E9E10E10E11NE14NE14N10N7NW4NW8NW13N15
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2 days agoS9S8S8SW8SW7SW5S7SW9SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.