Sunrise 5:02 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 4:24 PM   Moonset 3:17 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 190432 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1232 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A disturbance will cross the region overnight, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure will move south across the region Sunday into early next week, then build south of the area through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Update...
An upper level disturbance will begin to exit across the Maritimes overnight. Expect isolated/scattered showers across northern and central portions of the forecast area through early morning, with numerous showers Downeast. Showers will then begin to decrease late tonight in the wake of the exiting disturbance. Otherwise, skies will remain cloudy along with patchy fog overnight. Low temperatures will range from around 50 to the lower 50s across the forecast area. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures, clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
For Sunday skies should clear from northwest to southeast in the afternoon with the North Woods likely topping out in the lower 70s where most sunshine will be experienced. Downeast coast will be last to see sun, if any, and likely to remain in the lower 50s. However, nearly all inland locations will be above seasonal norms with temps around 70F fairly common across the area.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The upper level ridge will help usher in shortwave energy Sunday night. Clouds are expected to decrease to partly cloudy with light winds and warm temps. By Monday, the surface ridging remains bringing S flow across the region. This should help push temps into the upper 70s. By the afternoon, a weak frontal boundary is expected to move through, causing enough instability for convective showers to form in the north. With CAPE values over 100 J/kg and steepening lapse rates, decided to include slight chance for thunderstorms mainly in the fair north but could move further south. For the south, partly sunny skies.

By Monday night, lingering showers are expected to remain in the north early then dissipate by midnight. Expect a fairly mild night with temps in the upper 50s in the north and upper 40s in the south. By Tuesday, a weakening low pressure should bring another round of showers to the north and clouds to the south.
Slightly stronger and more widespread afternoon instability in the north is expected, which could produce thunderstorms in the north.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Per the previous forecast: Upper ridge will continue to extend northeastward across the region through mid week with a warming trend. Wednesday looks like an even warmer day with 925MB temperatures progged to climb to 20C-23C across the region, thus expect the potential for highs in the mid to upper 80s for some inland locales. Appears another short wave will cross the region Wednesday afternoon with the chance for showers. With the warming temperatures and increasing low level moisture have included slight chance thunder as well. Cold front approaches Thursday with chance for more showers and possible thunderstorms. Cooler weather follows the front for the end of the week.

AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions overnight ranging from VFR to LIFR with showers and patchy fog. Variable conditions persist early Sunday. Isolated showers possible Downeast early Sunday.
VFR/MVFR ceilings Sunday afternoon. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots overnight through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sun night-Tue...Mainly VFR, with possible MVFR north in slight chance afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms.
Light SW winds.

Tue night-Thu...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and possible slight chance afternoon thunderstorms. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight through Sunday. However, seas could approach small craft advisory levels on the western waters overnight. Numerous showers overnight, then scattered showers early Sunday. Patchy fog overnight through early Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA conditions for this period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Bassin De La Rivi?re St-Charles, Quebec, Tide feet

Montmorency
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Sat -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:30 AM EDT     3.48 meters High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:27 AM EDT     1.07 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:48 PM EDT     3.35 meters High Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:58 PM EDT     0.84 meters Low Tide
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Montmorency, Quebec, Tide feet

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