Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashford, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Satellite imagery shows atmospheric river over the northern half of Western Washington early this morning. Rain shadow in the Central Puget Sound has gotten stronger in the last couple of hours bringing about an end to the rain between Tacoma and Everett. Under cloudy skies temperatures were mild, mostly in the lower 50s, at 3 am/10z.

Atmospheric river remaining aimed at most of Western Washington through Friday. The river will sag south later today into tonight. Rain will redevelop over the southern portion of the area this afternoon and evening and continue into Friday. The rain shadow will also give way with so much moisture in the air mass later this morning with rain at times for the Central Puget Sound into Friday. Early model runs indicated an increase in the moisture Friday but the current forecast has IVT values between 500-700 kg/m/s until the river moves out of the area. Frontal boundary stalled to the north through the period keeping breezy conditions at time over the Northwest Interior. Snow levels between 7000 and 8500 feet through Friday. Not much change in temperatures with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Record high minimum temperatures are possible today. Felton

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Cold front moving through Friday evening bringing about an end to the atmospheric river. Rain giving way to showers with snow levels dropping quickly down to around 4000 feet. Breezy conditions with the frontal passage.

Little change in the model solutions for the weekend with zonal flow aloft over Western Washington and a weather system moving by to the north. This will keep a chance of showers in the forecast. Snow levels continuing to drop bottoming out between 1500 to 2000 feet Saturday night into Sunday morning. Moisture will be limited keeping new snow amounts in the mountains at a minimum.

Best chance at a completely dry day Monday with some weak upper level ridging out ahead of the next frontal system. Timing on this feature has slowed down a little but the warm front is still timed into the area Tuesday bringing rain back into the forecast. Highs near 50 with mid 50s possible Monday. Lows will cool significantly behind the front with the colder locations below freezing Sunday and Monday mornings. Increasing clouds Monday night keeping lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Felton

AVIATION
Strong westerly flow aloft will continue across Western Washington as a moist air mass continues to funnel rain into the region ahead of a stalled frontal boundary over British Columbia. A mix of MVFR and tempo IFR/LIFR conditions in light to moderate rain will persist through the day.

KSEA.. MVFR ceilings in light rain are expected through the day with tempo IFR this morning. Some guidance is suggesting some brief improvement to VFR late this afternoon, but overall confidence in this outcome is low. Surface winds southerly 5 to 8 knots rising to 8 to 12 knots this afternoon. 27

MARINE
Periods of small craft advisory strength southerlies will continue across the waters into late week as a stalled frontal boundary north of Vancouver Island eventually shifts southeastward on Friday.
Onshore flow will develop behind the front Friday night into Saturday then ease over the weekend as a building surface ridge offshore moves inland. 27

HYDROLOGY
Atmospheric river over the area still expected to cause possible flooding problems for rivers flowing out of the Cascades from King County northward and the Skokomish River in Mason County.
Rainfall amounts overnight have been less than predicted. There is a few one inch bullseyes in the Cascades from King county northward but most of the area reporting 0.30 to 0.50 inches in the last 6 hours. In the Cascades south of King county rainfall amounts have been 0.30 inches or less. Olympics rainfall amounts also not impressive in the last 6 hours, 0.30 inches to 0.50 inches.

Rainfall amounts forecast for today through Friday evening, 4 to 7 inches in the North Cascades, 3 to 5 inches for the Olympics and the coast and 1 to 2 inches for the interior. Snow levels remaining in the 7000 to 8500 foot range.

Flood warnings were issued last night for the Snoqualmie River both near the Falls and at Carnation. At that time the river had a chance to reach flood stage early this morning. The lower rainfall amounts overnight have slowed the river rises. Still expecting the river to reach flood stage just later today instead of this morning.

Flood watch for King, Snohomish, Skagit, Whatcom and Mason counties remaining in effect. Rainfall rates in the mountains increasing later today with flooding possible on but not limited to the following rivers Tolt, Snohomish, Pilchuck, Skagit, Nooksack and of course the flood prone Skokomish Thursday or Friday.

So far in March Seattle has had two one inch plus rain days ( 1.15 inches on the 11th and 1.22 inches on the 13th ). In 81 years of records at Seattle-Tacoma airport there has only been one March with three one inch plus rain days, the record setting year of 2014 ( 9.44 inches ). This year makes the 4th March on record with two one inch plus days. Including this year there have been 23 one inch plus rain days in March at Seattle- Tacoma airport. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through Friday afternoon for Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area.

Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics- Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 PM PDT Thursday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Thursday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Thursday for Admiralty Inlet.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.