Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Herbster, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Dry low to mid level air is in place across most of the Northland this afternoon. Precipitable water will slowly increase across northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota later this afternoon and through the evening towards values in the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range. The values are around the 90th percentile when compared to climatology and will set the stage for heavy rainfall tonight into Friday. Training precipitation with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected from the Brainerd Lakes through the I-35 corridor and into northwest Wisconsin in low level warm air advection north of the surface warm front in southern Minnesota. With multiple impulses aloft training along the warm air advection zone, long duration moderate to heavy rain is expected for the aforementioned areas with amounts in the one to three inch range likely by late Friday morning. Some of the higher resolution guidance show pockets of higher rainfall of three or four plus inches in the axis of the heaviest rainfall, however, both predictability and confidence in the placement of these values is low. Will not issue a Flood Watch at this time given the rainfall being spread out over a 6 to 8 plus hour window with the better rates more likely a bit further south of the area where better buoyancy will be in place.

A similar overall setup continues for Friday, with albeit weaker forcing. So rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected across northwest Wisconsin, decreasing in coverage into northeast Minnesota with little to no precipitation expected near the International Border.

Looking ahead, low amplitude upper level ridging builds across the central US Sunday into Monday, becoming more zonal mid week before amplifying again late next week. This pattern favors a return to widespread high temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s next week. With increasing dewpoints, buoyancy will be on the way up to support a daily chance for thunderstorms next week. At this time, the stronger waves embedded in the flow may impact the Upper Midwest Wednesday through Friday, although predictability in their exact timing is low. AI and ML probabilistic severe guidance all highlight that a round or two of storms next week could be severe across the region with the building buoyancy and a bit stronger mid level jet along the crest of the upper level ridge. However, details beyond this will have to be sorted out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A warm front is producing rain at BRD, and that is expected to continue tonight. The coverage has been a bit less than expected, and visibilities have been slow to fall as a result.
Expect predominantly VFR conditions to persist for the rest of tonight, but the warm front will slowly continue moving north and bring additional areas of rain and lower ceilings in general to BRD/HYR. Visibility will probably start to occasionally drop to MVFR in rain bands later tonight. Probably won't be much of a thunder threat for several hours, but some embedded storms could move north toward sunrise. Into Friday, ceilings are expected to fall to IFR through the day with showers continuing.
DLH will be on the northern edge of all this, so VFR is expected through tonight with some rain showers and MVFR ceilings moving in mid-morning or so. HIB/INL are expected to remain VFR through the period as the warm front remains too far south to affect them much. Expect breezy easterly winds to ramp up tonight and persist through the period with gusts to 20-25 kt at times.



MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Two Harbors to Duluth to Port Wing this afternoon into Saturday morning for northeast wind gusts to 25kts and waves building to 4 to 7 feet by Friday.
Winds will begin to subside late Friday night, however, waves around 4 feet are likely to continue into Saturday morning.
Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisories go into effect Friday morning through Friday night for Taconite Harbor to Two Harbors, and most of the South Shore as waves build to 3 to 5 feet with wind gusts around 20 kts. Rain with a few embedded thunderstorms will spread across wester Lake Superior tonight into Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ142-143-146-148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ144-145.