NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt...
for the following areas... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi...
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard...waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source...radar indicated.
impact...waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near... Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat...lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time...mot...loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout...possible hail...0.00in wind...40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 082123 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 323 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm system arrives late tonight into Saturday bringing with it accumulating snow and strong winds.

- Snowfall accumulations will generally be an inch or two at most for much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by Saturday night. The exception will be higher amounts for northern Douglas, Bayfield and Iron counties due to lake and terrain effects.

- Colder and drier conditions are expected through the start of the workweek with a warming trend late in the week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

The main focus in the near term will be an occluded low pressure system located just north of the Minnesota/Ontario Border. Early on Saturday, a cold front tied to the low pressure system will move through the region and will begin our period of active weather. Ahead of the front with temperatures near or above freezing, we could see some sprinkles/freezing drizzle with low level saturation and modest low level lift.

As the front passes, temperatures will quickly drop and sufficiently enough such that all precipitation will be snow by midday Saturday. Snowfall for most will end Saturday afternoon as the low pressure finally moves off to the east. The exception will be for the South Shore area where lake induced effects will linger. Snowfall totals for northeast Minnesota will generally be an inch or two at most due to limited lift and moisture within the dendritic growth zone.

For the areas downwind of Lake Superior, we should see enhancement due to the winds shifting out of the northwest and flowing off of the still warm lake Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. We’re expecting two regions to see some enhanced totals through Saturday night. The first and foremost will be the higher terrain snow belt of Iron County where a Winter Advisory is out for 4-6” of snow. It is here where we have the highest confidence that lake & terrain enhancement will be realized giving higher snowfall totals for this area. Ashland County could also see an upgrade in following forecast cycles but that’ll depend on getting higher confidence in where the heaviest snow will fall. The second region where we could see enhanced snowfall totals will be Northern Douglas and Bayfield counties where 2-4” of snow are likely in a gravity wave setup off of the North Shore. This gravity wave is evident within several HRRR members. A Winter Weather Advisory is not out of the question either for Douglas and Bayfield counties, especially if the gravity wave snowband becomes stationary, in addition to strong winds off the lake and blowing snow.

Regrading winds, a windy day is expected on Saturday with a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection in the wake of the front and departing low. The strongest winds are forecast for the North Shore, where katabatic and descending gravity wave effects could (40-60% chance) lead to wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. A Wind Advisory may be needed.

By midday Sunday most of the region will have dried out as a surface ridge overtakes the region. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s with winds out of the north keeping it slightly on the cooler side. Monday will be a few degrees warmer but a cold front will swing by later that afternoon dropping the highs on Tuesday into the lower 20s. Lows on each of these days will be in the single digits away from the lake to the teens closer to the lake. On Wednesday and onwards, a warming trend is likely as a significant ridge builds across the Canadian Plains. From this ridge we’ll see unseasonably warm temperatures return to the Northland once again with temperatures potentially being 10F above normal through the weekend with little precipitation expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Widespread MVFR ceilings will continue across northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota this afternoon with pockets of IFR ceilings across northeast Minnesota. Southwest winds with gusts of 20-25kts will continue across the area this afternoon and into the early evening, subsiding after 00Z. A strong cold front will move from west to east across the area late tonight through Saturday. Widespread IFR conditions in light snow and stratus are expected behind the front. Northwest winds will increase behind the front with gusts of 20-30 kts, locally higher near Lake Superior.

MARINE
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all western Lake Superior nearshore waters through this evening for southwest winds with gusts to 30kts. Waves of 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, will also continue for the North Shore from Two Harbors to Grand Portage.

A strong cold front will move across western Lake Superior Saturday morning. This will turn winds to the northwest with gusts of 25 to 35 kts late Saturday morning through Saturday night. Small Craft Advisories will be needed. A Gale Watch has been issued for the North Shore nearshore waters were gusts in excess of 40 kts are possible (60-80 percent change).



DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 142>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140-141.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for LSZ140>144.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Duluth, MN,