Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 9:24 AM   Moonset 12:59 AM

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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 215 Pm Pdt Mon May 13 2024
combined seas 6 to 8 ft. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 000 pm Monday, 1000 am and 1100 pm Tuesday.

PZZ100 215 Pm Pdt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Broad surface ridging will remain centered well offshore with low pressure inland throughout the week ahead for varying degrees of onshore flow.

FXUS66 KPQR 132158 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 258 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure ridging returns Tuesday, maintaining warm, dry, and mostly clear conditions through at least Thursday.
Uncertainty remains with whether or not this trend continues over the weekend.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite imagery as of 230 PM PDT shows mostly clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. An exception would be the south Washington and far north Oregon coast, where marine clouds have been persistent today. Decent onshore flow has been keeping temperatures relatively cool compared to the last few days.
We're still on track to have highs this afternoon peak in the low 70s for interior valleys and upper 50s/low 60s for the coast and higher terrain.

Tonight, we could see marine stratus develop again, but it's not certain for all coastal locations. Models are showing a thermal trough forming along the southern Oregon and northern California coast. The influence of this thermal trough could extend into the central Oregon coast. If this happens, then offshore flow would develop and inhibit low stratus formation along the coast (mainly south of Manzanita). The south Washington coast and far north Oregon coast look more likely to keep an onshore component to the wind, however, it will ultimately depend on how far north the thermal trough extends.

An upper level ridge over the northeast Pacific will shift toward the U.S. West Coast and return a warming trend through mid-week. Expect mostly clear skies and dry conditions. High temperatures will gradually increase beginning tomorrow, peaking on Wednesday. NBM probabilities for exceeding 75 degrees on Tuesday across the Portland/Vancouver metro are around 60-80% and 30-50% for the central and southern Willamette Valley. On Wednesday, highs for interior valleys will approach 80, as NBM shows high confidence (80-90% chance) for temperatures exceeding 75 degrees for interior valleys. During the day Tuesday and Wednesday, thermal troughing remains confined to the southern Oregon coast, so development of breezy east flow looks unlikely over our area. We'll mostly maintain northerly/northwesterly winds. In addition, models showing KTTD-KDLS pressure gradients of +3 to +5 are another indicator that we'll maintain an onshore wind component. -Alviz

LONG TERM
Wednesday Night through Sunday...WPC cluster analyses are in agreement of upper level ridging continuing over the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. This will maintain dry and warm conditions under predominately clear skies. On Friday, the majority of clusters show this ridge beginning to flatten, returning mostly zonal flow. Only 20% of members show weak troughing returning on Friday from Canada, but even then precipitation looks minimal. On the flip side, only about 10% of members show the ridge building further. In this case, we would likely see a return of cooler temperatures if the ridge breaks down by the end of the week.

Uncertainty in the upper level pattern over the Pacific Northwest continues into the weekend, however, one thing the clusters all have in common is a high pressure ridge over the northeast Pacific Ocean. Most of the uncertainty relates to how much of an influence this ridge has on our area. Clusters still suggest a 50% chance of ridging and a 50% chance of zonal flow or troughing going into the weekend. Thus, NBM does show around a 9 to 11 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles of high temperatures over parts of the Willamette Valley.

If models trend toward a troughing/zonal flow pattern, we'll likely see temperatures cool and potentially a slight chance (15-24%) of PoPs. If models trend toward keeping the ridge, then expect the forecast to maintain warmer, drier, and clearer conditions. -Alviz

AVIATION
The previous front has passed through the area, though some marine stratus clouds remain at the northern coastal terminals (KAST), continuing to reduce cigs to MVFR thresholds.
Daytime heating should burn off cloud cover by mid/late afternoon (00z Tue), after which a period of VFR thresholds is expected.

Further inland, VFR conditions with essentially clear skies continue throughout the rest of Monday day and night as high pressure continue to impact the area. Gustier winds will be possible from the north, with gusts up to 15-25kt possible at most terminals.

Later Monday night, model guidance is trending towards the thermal trough developing around the coast around 09-15z Tue, resulting in easterly flow and clear skies through the rest of the TAF period. If this falls apart, we could see some marine clouds continue to reduce visibilities back to MVFR at the coast, around a 40% chance of MVFR cigs. The northern coast sees better chances of MVFR cigs, closer to 70%. /JLiu

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with northerly winds. Breezy northerly winds continue as high pressure redevelops behind the front.
Slight chance (30%) for MVFR CIGS around 15z Tue due to the thermal trough shifting inland, but still predominantly expecting VFR. /JLiu

MARINE
Post-frontal conditions continue to support breezy northerly winds that will intensify as high pressure builds over the area and a slight thermal trough forms over the coastline. Winds are currently gusting to about 15-20 kt, but will ramp up again in the late afternoon/early afternoon. From there, winds will increase further to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt starting around sunset on Monday. The winds will start picking up in the inner waters out to 10 NM, then spread north and west. Small Craft Advisory remains on track to start around 1600 through Tuesday.

In regards to seas, nothing overly remarkable as the primary swell is from the northwest, and the wind wave from the north. Wind waves will range from around 4 to 6 feet. Combined seas will be 6 to 8 ft through Tuesday, though conditions ramp up mid-week. -Muessle/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.

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Mon -- 01:59 AM PDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM PDT     -2.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:23 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:34 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:09 PM PDT     1.69 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:03 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM PDT     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
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