Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
White Pine, MI

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:22PM Thursday December 5, 2019 10:48 AM CST (16:48 UTC) Moonrise 1:32PMMoonset 12:16AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ241 Expires:201909220230;;567241 fzus73 kmqt 220136 mwsmqt marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 936 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019 lsz240-241-263-220230- 936 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Black river to ontonagon mi... Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royal national park... Saxon harbor wi to black river mi... At 934 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near saxon harbor, moving northeast at 35 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will affect the nearshore and adjoining waters from little girl's point to silver city. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4667 9044 4683 9033 4706 8974 4681 8953 4678 8976 4667 8995 4654 9038
LSZ241


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near White Pine, MI
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location: 46.86, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 051141 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 641 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM EST THU DEC 5 2019

Radar this morning shows the dying remains of lake-effect snow showers in parts of Alger and northern Luce counties. Based on webcams in Munising, Wetmore, and Grand Marais showing little to nothing falling, cleared out precip POPs and instead went with flurries likely in the wx grids through 11z. Otherwise, the story today will be another round of light snow area-wide with a weak Clipper system racing across the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. MSAS analysis shows a 1005 mb surface reflection to this wave in northwestern North Dakota, which is about 2-3 mb deeper than all of the guidance. It remains to be seen if that's actually a noteworthy model error. CAMs simulated reflectivity matches up fine with radar returns over southern Manitoba early this morning so expect that this is not really going to be an issue.

With the 850 mb low progged to track from about DLH to near IMT, and the best 925-700 mb theta-e advection therefore along and north of that track, there should be enough forcing for a broad area of light snow to overspread the U.P. from west to east, from about 17z at IWD lingering until about 03z over the eastern U.P. Took QPF down a few hundredths of an inch over the previous forecast to fall right in line with the median of all guidance and CONSAll, given that Clippers are usually moisture-starved and this one doesn't look like ti will feature any impressive dynamics to wring out unexpected amounts of precip. Also went a little lower with SLRs given the DGZ is up at about 650 mb and only occasionally overlaps with regions of saturated omega in NAM and GFS soundings. However there will be very little wind, and no riming, so the any dendrites that do form high up could make it all the way to the ground intact. Thus felt it was ok to hold on to SLRs about 15:1 when these same soundings with stronger wind or slightly warmer low levels would only support 10:1. The net result is snowfall amounts that are expected be anywhere from just a coating to about 2" max in the NW flow LES belts.

There will be some light NW flow LES this evening, but dry air is progged to move in very quickly, leaving a window of only a couple hours at most for those snow showers over the western belts. Over the east (Alger and Luce counties) the longer fetch will help keep some light LES bands going into Friday morning, but still this is expected to be a minor LES event. Despite the fresh snow cover and colder air advecting in, lake-effect clouds remaining in place and about 5 kts of sfc wind should prevent any PBL decoupling/rapid temps drops tonight into Friday morning and instead keep us in the teens interior and low 20s along the lakeshores.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 434 AM EST THU DEC 5 2019

A shot of arctic air is still on track for the midweek period next week. Thru Sat, the Upper Lakes will be under wnw to w flow with high temps no more than 5 to 8 degrees either side of normal. Meanwhile, over the n Pacific, a ridge extending n across the Aleutians will be shifting e. Once it reaches the w coast of Canada early next week, it will amplify sharply. This narrow, sharp ridging, which will extend n into the Arctic, will force deep troffing to develop downstream into the Great Lakes by the middle of next week, resulting in a surge of arctic air into the area. Medium range guidance still suggests 850mb temps of at least mid -20s C will move across Upper MI during the middle of next week. In advance of the deepening trof, Sun will be the warmest day of this fcst period with high temps well into the 30s to even around 40F. Cooling will begin Sun night/Mon with the core of the arctic air still likely to arrive Tue night/Wed, resulting in high temps Wed not getting out of the single digits above zero over the interior w half of Upper MI. This shot of arctic air looks short-lived as the narrow western ridge won't be able to deflect shortwaves moving across the ne Pacific. With at least some of this energy breaking thru the ridge, the downstream trof over the Great Lakes will be forced to begin retreating. So, expect some moderation to occur late next week. As for pcpn, a couple of clipper type shortwaves will be passing over the next few days, one today and another on Sat. Light snow will accompany the first today, followed by nw flow light LES into Fri. WAA ahead of the next wave may bring some -sn Fri night/Sat morning. Progression of shortwaves leading the deepening central N America trof will result in additional potential of pcpn Sun, but more so on Mon as tightening temp gradient increases the possibility of a more vigorous system spinning up. While models are still not indicating any kind of significant system, looks like there will be a widespread snowfall of potentially a few inches on Mon with areas near Lake Superior inline for lake enhancement under n to ne low-level winds. NW to w flow LES will then take over thru the midweek period with mdt to possibly locally hvy snow accumulations.

Beginning Fri, nw flow LES will be ongoing to start the day under 850mb temps of -11 to -15C. However, with inversion already down to around 3kft over the w, LES may not be much more than flurries by morning. Over the e, inversions will only be a little higher at 4- 5kft. So, LES will be on the light side. With the DGZ occupying the upper part of the convective layer. A fluffy inch or so of snow accumulation will be possible. The LES will end w to e during the day Fri under developing waa/backing winds/drying as sfc high pres ridging shifts e to the western Great Lakes. A few flurries may linger into early Fri evening over Luce County.

WAA strengthens Fri night into Sat morning with fairly strong isentropic ascent resulting. Compared to the model runs viewed 24hrs ago, the 00z models today show greater coverage of light pcpn across the fcst area which seems on track with the degree of isentropic ascent indicated. Best chc of -sn will be across the n and ne fcst area, particularly the Keweenaw, where low-level saturation is more likely to occur deeper into the retreating colder air. At this point, expect any snow accumulations to be under 1 inch given short duration of ascent.

A weak shortwave is fcst to track across the area Sun, which may provide some patchy -sn/-ra. Sfc cold front will also move across the fcst area Sun aftn/evening. Attention then turns to the next wave swinging across the western Great Lakes Mon/Mon night as trof amplifies over central N America. There are no indications from the deterministic CMC/ECMWF/GFS for this wave to produce a significant storm system that would impact the fcst area. The ECMWF has backed away from trends that were leading to potentially something more notable, and while the GFS had some runs trending that way as well it has also backed off. None of the 00z CMC ensembles show anything important, but surprisingly, there are now some GFS ensembles that do look interesting. In any event, Mon into early Tue will be a time period to monitor, but for now, do not anticipate anything particularly noteworthy. As was the case for the last couple of days, looks like a widespread snowfall Mon into Mon night of potentially a few inches. N to ne winds off Lake Superior will provide upsloping and lake enhancement. So, greatest snow accumulations will occur in the areas favored by n to ne winds. Following this wave, arctic air flows into the area, sending 850mb temps down into the -20s C for Tue/Wed. With inversion to lift due to the mid-level trof axis shifting overhead and at least one shortwave swinging across the area, mdt to at times hvy LES will likely be in the offing Tue/Wed in areas favored by low-level nw flow backing westerly. LES should begin to diminish on Thu as trof axis shifts e of the area and moderation begins.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 641 AM EST THU DEC 5 2019

MVFR cigs will briefly become VFR this morning at the TAF sites, though a bit uncertain how quickly as lower cigs seem stubborn to clear out. Regardless, they'll come right back down early this afternoon as light snow overspreads the TAF sites from west to east. A few hours of IFR conditions look likely when the bulk of the snow moves through. Even after snow ends, we'll be left with MVFR cigs tonight as winds turn NW and keep lake-effect clouds around.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 322 AM EST THU DEC 5 2019

As surface ridging passes overhead, winds will go very light today. It would feel more like August out there by late afternoon if not for the temperatures. But it's a short reprieve; winds turn back NW and increase again to 25-30 kts this evening behind a cold front. There could be a few isolated marginal gale force gusts on the eastern lake Friday morning but nothing that would justify a headline at this point. Winds gradually turn to the SW Friday night with another period of winds to 30 kts expected across the lake Saturday night (and again perhaps a few isolated marginal gale force gusts). Winds then turn NW and then N behind another cold front on Sunday with another period of 25-30 kt winds and isolated gale gusts. These winds continue to veer to NE for Monday as the next low pressure system approaches, staying mostly in the 25-30 kt range. Given the winds and colder air Friday, some freezing spray is likely, mainly on the northern and eastern lake, but is not expected to reach warning-criteria. Another round of freezing spray is expected late Sunday into Monday with that cold front, and there is a slight chance this could reach warning criteria but that is still several days away.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . RJC LONG TERM . Rolfson AVIATION . RJC MARINE . RJC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 31 mi68 min Calm G 2.9 29°F 1013.5 hPa
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 41 mi48 min E 8.9 G 12 28°F 1015 hPa (+0.5)23°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ironwood, Gogebic-Iron County Airport, MI23 mi52 minE 510.00 miOvercast26°F19°F78%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWD

Wind History from IWD (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmSW4SW5SW4CalmCalmSW3SW5SW6SW5S7SW9SW7SW7S5S7SW8S6SW6SW6SW6SW8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.