Thursday, August6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
White Pine, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday August 6, 2020 7:07 PM CDT (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 7:41AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ241 548 Pm Edt Mon Jul 27 2020
.strong Thunderstorms over the waters... The areas affected include... Black river to ontonagon mi... Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royal national park... Ontonagon to upper entrance of portage canal mi... At 548 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 28 nm south of horseshoe bay and safe harbor to near the western lake superior buoy to 26 nm northeast of madeline island, moving east at 30 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4705 9019 4724 8995 4747 8977 4722 8858 4696 8904 4695 8910 4682 8934 4679 8962 4698 9023
LSZ241 Expires:202007272245;;522306 FZUS73 KMQT 272148 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 548 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 LSZ241-242-263-272245-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near White Pine, MI
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location: 46.86, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 062333 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 733 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday) Issued at 329 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2020

The large scale pattern consists of ridging over most of the central US and weak troughing over the Great Lakes. Further downstream, a negatively tilted closed upper low remains over Quebec and Nova Scotia. Over our area, weak northwesterly mid-level flow persists. Water vapor satellite shows a short wave embedded in the flow dropping slowly southeastward over the eastern half of Lake Superior. SPC Mesoanalysis shows only weak dCVA out ahead of it. However, combined with lake breeze convergence and SBCAPE analyzed around 500- 1000 J/kg over the eastern UP, it may be enough for a few scattered showers, mainly along and east of the Seney Stretch. Satellite shows cumulus continuing to fester over the eastern UP and radar finally shows a few light echoes near the Chippewa/Mackinac County line and another weak shower in central Schoolcraft County. Kind of a tough call as to whether any of these showers will produce thunder, as there remains a cap around 700-600 mb (and any hail growth would of course be above that) but depending on the degree of low-level mixing, a parcel could just barely slip past it and accelerate to the tropopause. Either way we're not looking at anything strong or long-lived, but there could be a rumble or two of thunder with these showers. In keeping with the previous few forecast cycles, have capped thunder at slight chance.

Tonight and tomorrow look like more or less a continuation of what we've seen the past few days. Diurnal cu will clear out this evening leading to a clear night, although there will be enough of pressure gradient to keep winds from going calm. Some cu will probably return late morning/early afternoon tomorrow, though with mid-level heights rising, expect it to be more suppressed than today. Models have 850 mb temps just about 1 C warmer tomorrow, so highs will likely be about 1-2 F warmer than today. As low pressure develops over the High Plains, and in conjunction with surface ridging over the Lower Great Lakes, the pressure gradient will be a little stronger tomorrow resulting in breezier south winds that could gust up to 20 mph in the afternoon. A band of low- to mid-level theta-e advection lifting northward through the western UP could provide enough lift for an isolated shower or storm over the far west tomorrow afternoon, although CAMs are pretty unenthusiastic about the potential so kept POPs dry though the end of the day.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2020

The combination of above normal temperatures and rising dewpoints will make for a return of uncomfortable conditions through Monday. There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday with a few shortwaves passing through Upper Michigan with maybe a dry day Sunday in between shortwaves. A cold front will move across the area sometime Monday, providing some relief as in humidity and dewpoints will drop a bit. Behind the front conditions look mostly dry through the middle of next week.

Temperatures Friday night will be more mild with lows in the 60s and mid to upper 60s along Lake Superior. Did end up bumping temperatures down a couple degrees Saturday with incoming shortwave which should increase cloud cover. Looking at highs mainly in the upper 70s with some low 80s closer to Lake Superior. Warmest day of the forecast period still looks to be Sunday with mostly 80s across the UP. Sfc dew points could very well be in the mid to upper 60s and close to 70 in some spots, making it feel more uncomfortable and unsettled. These above average temperatures will continue into early next week with some signs of temperatures moderating a bit back into the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday in lieu of the passage of the cold front, resulting in a bit more comfortable dewpoints and humidity levels. Besides cold front late Sunday into Monday, temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year.

A shortwave from Minnesota will move approach the UP late Friday night into Saturday morning and latest runs show an organized cluster of storms evolving upstream and moving into the western parts of the fcst area by early Saturday morning. There is still some considerable spread in the guidance as would be expected with this convection as this will be aided by modest low-level jet of around 25kt. The NAM has been the most aggressive with showing a MCV moving across northern Lake Superior. GFS is slowly hinting at this scenario. We'll see how the models handle this tonight and will continue to monitor. With that shortwave passing Saturday, the cold front will move through late Sunday into Monday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday is trending a bit drier with newest runs but will keep slight chances in for now. Keeping chances of showers and thunderstorms through late Monday night however, some models are hinting at a shortwave Tuesday night into Wednesday. Too early to tell if anything will come from that so will remain dry Wednesday.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 732 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2020

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Scattered cumulus will decrease after sunset with light winds. Clouds should redevelop tomorrow late morning into the afternoon. With increasing low level moisture IWD could see periods of BKN getting down near MVFR but not enough confidence to put MVFR in the TAF. Southerly winds will increase mid morning with a few gusts approaching 20 knots at IWD and SAW.

MARINE. (For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 329 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2020

With high pressure persisting over the Lower Great Lakes through Friday, winds on the lake will be generally 15 kts or less through Friday afternoon. However by late afternoon tomorrow they begin to increase to around 15-20 kts. Southerly winds will remain around 15- 20 kts through Friday night before falling back below 20 kts through the rest of the fcst period. The caveat though is that there is a slight chance that a decaying thunderstorm complex will race across the lake Friday night leading to stronger winds than are currently forecast. Given that this is a low chance of occurrence, did not put stronger winds into the forecast, but this will be something to watch. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the lake through the weekend and again on Tuesday next week, with some stronger winds associated with thunderstorms possible.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . RJC LONG TERM . JH AVIATION . NL MARINE . RJC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 31 mi28 min SSW 4.1 G 8.9 76°F 1016.6 hPa
45006 - W SUPERIOR 48NM North of Ironwood, MI 35 mi28 min Calm G 3.9 70°F 59°F1016.9 hPa65°F
OTNM4 - Ontonagon, MI 36 mi68 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 75°F 1016.9 hPa
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 41 mi68 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1017 hPa (-0.5)60°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ironwood, Gogebic-Iron County Airport, MI23 mi72 minSW 610.00 miOvercast74°F57°F57%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWD

Wind History from IWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S7--SW10W8SW8SW8SW6S9SW6SW7
1 day agoNE5CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW8W10SW10W11W10
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2 days agoNE4NE4E5CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE6N7
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5NE6NE56N8N6N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.