Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for White Pine, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Early this morning model analysis and satellite imagery continued to show upper level ridging over the plains states ahead of an upper level low over the Pacific Northwest. Shortwave energy was pushing over the top of the ridge resulting in areas of showers and thunderstorms over northern MN and southern Manitoba. High level cloudiness from these storms was streaming southeast into the U.P.
with the northwest flow aloft. The added cloud cover was keeping temperatures warmer than last night, ranging from the 60s in the west to the 50s east.

The upper level pattern begins to shift tonight into Tuesday as the central CONUS ridge is flattened out by a deep trough lifting out of the Pacific Northwest into the Canadian Prairies. This will induce surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the northern Rockies on today, with a strong low then tracking to the southern shores of Hudson Bay by Wednesday morning and driving a strong cold front across the UP late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

For today, light winds and above average temperatures are on tap as high pressure moving through Ontario continues to keep the area dry.
More clouds can be expected today though as the upper level low over the Pacific Northwest inches closer. Expect highs in the 70s to low 80s along with comfortable afternoon dewpoints falling into the 50s as mixing reaches into the drier air. This will bring afternoon humidity down to 30% in the west but with light winds don't expect any fire weather concerns.

A warm front will push through the area late tonight into Tuesday with deep moisture along and behind the front. This will bring a period of warm, moist air advection resulting in showers and thunderstorms along and behind the warm front. Instability increases with time behind the warm front, with ensemble joint probabilities for 30kt shear and 500+ J/kg mucape increase to 80%, sufficient for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the best instability lags the forcing associated with the warm front and a strong capping inversion will be in place through the day Tuesday as 850mb temps warm to 16C but moist low level air and clouds prevent strong diurnal heating. Thus it may be difficult to get any storm development in the lagging, more unstable airmass.

Overall, expect most of the area to receive a wetting rainfall from this event as latest NBM has a 65% or greater chance to receive at least a quarter inch for a but the far southcentral UP (closer to 50%) through Tuesday night. The western UP from the Keweenaw to the Porcupines has a 40-60% chance to receive an inch or more of rain on Tuesday, but those probabilities quickly drop off to 10-25% over the central and eastern UP. Rain should depart the eastern UP behind a cold front by Wednesday morning.

This system will also make for breezy conditions from Tuesday into Wednesday, with southerly winds increasing to 15-30 mph across a wide swath of the area on Tuesday ahead of the front. The strongest gusts on Tuesday will be in the areas favored by southerly downslope flow, particularly from the Huron Mountains eastward along the Lake Superior shoreline. Winds will shift westerly on Wednesday, aided by cold air advection and pressure rises behind the front. Expect widespread gusts of 20-30 mph through the day, with stronger gusts to 40 mph possible near Lake Superior. Will need to consider an eventual Wind Advisory for the Keweenaw as NBM now shows a 60-80% chance for gusts of 45+ mph there. Meanwhile, there is also a 25-35% probability for 45 mph gusts along the shoreline from east of Marquette to Whitefish Point.

Expect calmer weather to return to the region by Thursday as high pressure temporarily builds back over the UP behind the departing system, with highs on Thursday closer to seasonal norms in the mid 60s to low 70s. However, the overall pattern remains unsettled as another trough has the potential to bring additional rounds of precipitation and breezy conditions from Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 728 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High level clouds will be on the increase today as low pressure moves out of the Rockies towards the Canadian Prairies. Mid-level clouds will move into the western U.P. tonight as a warm front pushes into the region, bringing showers into the forecast.

Expect mainly light winds during the day today, less than 10kt, with winds becoming gusty tonight at IWD and towards the end of the period at SAW.

Showers will spread across the western U.P. late tonight affecting IWD, however dry air in the low levels will likely keep vsby and cigs at VFR. Also added a mention of showers early Tuesday morning at CMX with a prob30. Shortly after the end of the TAF period expect heavier showers and thunderstorms to move into the area with the potential for flight categories falling to MVFR or less.

MARINE
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Lake Superior: High pressure influence keeps winds below 20 kts through early Monday afternoon. A more prominent system lifting to the north of Lake Superior Monday night through Wednesday brings a prolonged period of widespread 20 to 30 kt winds. Have hoisted a Gale Watch for east-central parts of the lake on Tuesday as southerly winds increase ahead of the system. Most likely area to see 35+ kt gusts on Tuesday will be over the open waters between Marquette and Grand Marais, but also could see a few low end gales westward into Keweenaw Bay. Also expect some gales around Isle Royale with southerly flow on Tuesday, but do not see enough coverage to justify a Gale Watch over the western lake at this time.
Would anticipate eventually needing small craft headlines for most of the nearshore zones as the event draws closer. A potential high end gale event (40-45 kt) will follow on Wednesday as winds shift westerly behind the front aided by cold air advection and pressure rises. Winds settle below 20 kts by Thursday afternoon. Another system traveling north of Lake Superior brings stronger wind potential into early next weekend, but significant model discrepancies leave confidence low.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Winds remain 15 kts or lower through Labor Day as high pressure remains overhead. A more prominent system lifting north of the region early next week increases winds to around 15 kts with gusts up to 20 to 30 kts Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Anticipate an eventual need for multiple periods of small craft headlines for southerly winds on Tuesday and then west-southwest winds on Wednesday. Winds settle below 20 kts by Thursday morning, holding below 20 kts into Friday.
Another system traveling north of Lake Superior brings stronger wind potential into early next weekend, but significant model discrepancies leave confidence low.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LSZ248>250-265-266.

Lake Michigan...
None.