Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield, WI

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 122104 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 404 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

The MCV that came across central MN early this morning continues to wither away as it approaches Lake Superior and NW WI. On the backside of this system we are seeing storms redevelop south of the Brainerd Lakes region with its precipitation shield expanding up into Crow Wing county. The models have been struggling with the overall evolution of this system since it entered this morning, as such confidence is not high with the storms progression. At this time we expect the storms to continue their very slow eastward progression. A few rumbles of thunder are possible but the overall instability within the region has been heavily dampened due to the cloud cover that has persisted through the day.

The rain showers are expected to dissipate as we head into tomorrow morning. A strong pressure gradient begins to set up over the region as a low over the Northern Plains begins to deepen. Southerly winds will increase and gusts upwards of 25kts will be possible. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise tomorrow with apparent temperatures in the mid 80s.

The Northland has a couple of chances of seeing strong to severe weather going forward. Thursday night brings the first opportunity. A strong corridor of instability will be located west of our CWA with mix layer CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/Kg. Storms are currently projected to initiate within this zone and move into the Northland. Bulk shear at this time is a limiting factor with it being on the order of 15-25kt depending on the model. The SPC has an enhanced outlook clipping Koochiching and a slight risk for Cass up through northern St. Louis County. The second wave will crash through Friday afternoon, for more details see discussion below.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Friday southerly winds will continue to increase the moisture in the region. Dewpoints are projected to rise into the mid 60s through the day. To the west broad upper level trough will be over the Northern Plains early Friday. Out ahead of this troughing a few shortwaves will progress over the Northland. These initial impulses could instigate a few storms over our western periphery as early as Thursday night.

As the day progresses a few key features begin to shift in favor of strong to severe weather populating Friday afternoon. The upper level trough continues to pivot over the Northland. At the surface an attendant cold front will begin to slide from northwest MN to northwest WI. The low level jet also resurges in the afternoon with speeds in excess of 35kts. Storms will begin to populate along the low level convergence provided by the frontal system. The current projection of this environment has mixed-level CAPEs over 2000 J/Kg and more favorable bulk shear over 35kts. With these conditions forecasted the SPC has northern MN highlighted in a slight risk. Additionally, WPC has northern MN within a slight risk for flash flooding. The NAEFS precipitable water is within the 90th percentile of climatology, not extremely anomalous but high enough to warrant attention.

The cold front and its associated storms are expected to move out of the Northland by Saturday morning. High pressure builds in behind the front with cool dry northerly winds filtering in. The NBM was originally a little adventurous with its POPS for Saturday being in the mid to upper 30s. Global model consensus has minimal large scale forcing with weak cyclonic flow aloft. Combine this with subsidence at the surface brought on by the surface high building to the southwest we have opted to scale back the mention of POPS a bit and have it clearing out by the evening hours.

In general we enter a more settled weather pattern on Sunday and into the early parts of next week. Sunday and Monday will see some gusty winds as a strong pressure gradient sets up over the region. These northwesterly winds will also further decrease the temperatures across the area. Look for high temps in the lower 70s and low temps dropping into the mid 40s by Monday night.

The next batch of rain could arrive on Wednesday. However, at this time model agreement that far out is very poor. A few of the models have a shortwave entering from the west by the afternoon hours which could incite a few showers and a rumble of thunder.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

A weakening storm system was observed moving through central MN and entering WI around noon. The lightening threat has diminished with rainfall slowly dwindling as the system progresses east. Despite this complex moving across the Northland cloud heights are remaining VFR. Latest model guidance has begun to suggest some possible redevelopment on the backside of this system in the afternoon. Confidence is not high for these showers but have put the mention of VCSH for now. MVFR ceilings are expected to filter in ahead of our next weather system tomorrow morning. Additionally, look for stronger winds out of the south with gusts upwards of 25kts.

MARINE. Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

A few rain showers could move across western Lake Superior this evening. No severe weather is expected but a few rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out. Winds are expected to remain below 12 kts through the forecast period with wave heights at 2 ft or less. Additional chances for storms return Thursday night and into Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 62 81 63 80 / 30 20 60 60 INL 60 84 62 79 / 20 50 80 80 BRD 65 85 66 81 / 30 30 60 70 HYR 61 84 62 82 / 20 10 30 40 ASX 62 87 63 85 / 20 10 30 40

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

SHORT TERM . Britt/BJH LONG TERM . Britt/BJH AVIATION . Britt/BJH MARINE . Britt/BJH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI	16 mi	78 min	E 5.1 G 6	69°F			1017.5 hPa (-0.7)	65°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI	29 mi	38 min	S 2.9 G 4.1	75°F			1017.6 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI	30 mi	38 min	WNW 6 G 8	74°F			1016.9 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN	36 mi	98 min	NNE 5.1 G 8	68°F			1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI	22 mi	25 min	NW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	74°F	64°F	74%	1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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