Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 9:33 PM CDT (02:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 Expires:201908051700;;159169 Fzus73 Kdlh 051525 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 1025 Am Cdt Mon Aug 5 2019 Lsz121-143-145>148-162-051700- 1025 Am Cdt Mon Aug 5 2019
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Oak point to saxon harbor wi... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors... At 1023 am cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located near herbster, or 32 nm east of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 35 knots. The area of Thunderstorms will be near... Bayfield peninsula sea caves around 1045 am cdt. Sand island around 1050 am cdt. Raspberry island lighthouse and red cliff around 1100 am cdt. Madeline island around 1110 am cdt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4661 9079 4656 9091 4657 9097 4667 9094 4670 9089 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4683 9121 4675 9145 4718 9145 4721 9140 4725 9005 4666 9044 4656 9043
LSZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 202352
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
652 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Update
Issued at 640 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
updated for the 00z aviation discussion.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 304 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
a cool canadian high pressure builds in across the northern great
plains and the upper midwest today into tomorrow leading to mainly
sunny skies and temperatures near to slightly below seasonal values.

Breezy Wednesday with northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph.

Late this afternoon isolated showers storms are possible along and
ahead of the cold front, with the most likely location right along
the front. A few thunderstorms have already been observed across the
iron range early this afternoon, and while the severe threat should
be fairly low with limited instability (around 500-1000 j kg mlcape)
and decent shear (about 40 knots of mainly speed shear along the
front), some storms could produce gusty winds or small hail, but
overall think the storms will be too brief in nature to pose a
severe risk.

On the synoptic scale a fairly amplified longwave ridge is over the
rockies, building east into the canadian prairie and northern great
plains on Wednesday leading to a broad area of high pressure
building from saskatchewan into manitoba Wednesday, towards
northwest ontario on Wednesday night. At the same time a shortwave
trough associated with an upper low over northwest ontario today
will track south into northern minnesota and across the upper great
lakes late tonight into the day Wednesday. While the best large-
scale forcing from this upper low will remain across ontario, some
of the low mid level moisture associated with the system may cause
some increasing clouds across northeast minnesota Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Otherwise this low will simply
reinforcing the cooler air at low levels, resulting in highs in the
the 60s to near 70 on Wednesday afternoon. Lows tonight and
Wednesday night will fall to the 40s in most spots and perhaps into
the upper 30s in some of the usual cold spots. The exception will be
right along the lake superior shoreline where the warm water
temperatures will keep the lows from falling below 50 degrees on the
lakeshore.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 304 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
high pressure will be in place at the surface to start the period.

However, a large upper low to the south of hudson bay will spin a
rather potent shortwave through the upper midwest during the day
Thursday. Given the cooler temperatures temperatures aloft and the
shortwave moving through, a few isolated showers cannot be ruled
out, but this threat is so minuscule have left it out for now. The
high will then shift to the east Thursday night into Friday as
ridging moves in aloft. With the core of the high moving near
northwest wisconsin Thursday night, have lowered lows into the lower
40s with a few upper 30s given the clear skies and light winds.

Areas along and to the east of the iron range may dip down into the
upper 30s and lower 40s as well. As the high continues to move to
the east Friday, this will setup southerly flow across the northland
and bring in warmer and more moist air. A shortwave will move across
the dakotas and bring some shower activity to the dakotas and
western minnesota during the day. This shortwave then weakens Friday
night early Saturday morning, but showers and perhaps a few storms
may work into our western zones during this period. Another
shortwave will then traverse the northern plains on Saturday and
bring an area of showers and storms from the dakotas into western
minnesota. While guidance is in fair agreement in bringing a
shortwave through the northern plains, they differ in how far east
the associated precipitation reaches. As such, much of the northland
looks to remain dry on Saturday, but western areas will see chances
for rain.

Another shortwave will then rotate around the base of the longwave
trough for Sunday into Monday and looks to be a bit stronger than
the previous two. Guidance is in agreement that surface cyclogenesis
will occur somewhere in the upper midwest during this time period,
but differ in location in timing. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for much of Sunday and Monday with the front pushing
through towards the end of the period. Given the moisture and warm
temperatures from the southerly flow leading up to the latter half
of the weekend, along with the upper pattern and surface cold front,
there will be the potential for strong to severe storms sometime
during the Sunday Monday period.

Temperatures will begin the period in the middle 60s to lower 70s in
Thursday before warming into the 70s for the remainder of the
period. Thursday and Friday morning will start out rather chilly for
this time of year with lows in the middle 40s to upper 30s. Lows
then return to the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the period.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 640 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
a few scattered clouds this evening will clear out this evening
with high pressure influencing our area. With clear skies and
light winds overnight, fog could be an issue particularly at hib
and possibly hyr. Most model guidance does not have fog
developing, but given climatology, recent rainfall, ideal
radiational cooling conditions tonight, and the fact that hib did
see visibilities as low as 1 2 sm last night, decided to add a
period of MVFR visibility in the morning. Confidence is not as
high at hyr, so added a mention of br but kept visibility at 6 sm
for now. Other than the fog risk, expectingVFR conditions through
the TAF period with some scattered clouds developing Wednesday
afternoon. Winds may become a bit blustery Wednesday afternoon
with gusts around or just over 15 kt.

Marine
Issued at 304 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
no hazardous conditions are expected over the next 48 hours. A cold
front will move across western lake superior this evening. There may
be an isolated shower or perhaps a thunderstorm, but chances are
low. Winds will turn northwesterly at 4 to 8 knots with a few gusts
to 15 knots through around sunset. Winds will remain out of the
northwest at 5 to 10 knots on Wednesday with gusts to 15 knots. By
Thursday, winds will turn easterly at 3 to 6 knots. Waves will be 2
feet or less through the period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 48 69 47 69 0 0 0 0
inl 45 65 43 70 0 0 0 0
brd 49 71 48 73 0 0 0 0
hyr 47 70 47 71 40 0 0 0
asx 51 71 49 70 30 0 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Js
short term... Jjm
long term... Bjh
aviation... Js
marine... Bjh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi34 min N 12 G 13 69°F 1014.4 hPa (+1.9)58°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi54 min N 6 G 8.9 71°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi41 minN 910.00 miOvercast70°F62°F76%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7----------S4SW5S3S5CalmSW3SW6S14
G22
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SW12W6W6W7----W6NW4N4
1 day agoSW5SW7SW6SW7--SW8----SW7SW7SW9SW8SW9--SW11W15SW14
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2 days agoS4S3SE4S3S3Calm--E3CalmW9E3----W5W6NW9W11
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W12NW9W12
G18
W11W7W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.