Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 6:17 PM CDT (23:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:31PMMoonset 2:07PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 544 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 9 2020
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Sand island to bayfield wi... At 544 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This area of Thunderstorms was located near red cliff, moving northeast at 25 knots. Locations impacted include... Red cliff, madeline island, and raspberry island lighthouse. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4686 9082 4687 9080 4690 9080 4694 9086 4723 9060 4720 9038 4707 9029 4679 9069
LSZ147 Expires:202008092315;;196817 FZUS73 KDLH 092244 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 544 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 LSZ147-162-092315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 122104 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 404 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

The MCV that came across central MN early this morning continues to wither away as it approaches Lake Superior and NW WI. On the backside of this system we are seeing storms redevelop south of the Brainerd Lakes region with its precipitation shield expanding up into Crow Wing county. The models have been struggling with the overall evolution of this system since it entered this morning, as such confidence is not high with the storms progression. At this time we expect the storms to continue their very slow eastward progression. A few rumbles of thunder are possible but the overall instability within the region has been heavily dampened due to the cloud cover that has persisted through the day.

The rain showers are expected to dissipate as we head into tomorrow morning. A strong pressure gradient begins to set up over the region as a low over the Northern Plains begins to deepen. Southerly winds will increase and gusts upwards of 25kts will be possible. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise tomorrow with apparent temperatures in the mid 80s.

The Northland has a couple of chances of seeing strong to severe weather going forward. Thursday night brings the first opportunity. A strong corridor of instability will be located west of our CWA with mix layer CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/Kg. Storms are currently projected to initiate within this zone and move into the Northland. Bulk shear at this time is a limiting factor with it being on the order of 15-25kt depending on the model. The SPC has an enhanced outlook clipping Koochiching and a slight risk for Cass up through northern St. Louis County. The second wave will crash through Friday afternoon, for more details see discussion below.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Friday southerly winds will continue to increase the moisture in the region. Dewpoints are projected to rise into the mid 60s through the day. To the west broad upper level trough will be over the Northern Plains early Friday. Out ahead of this troughing a few shortwaves will progress over the Northland. These initial impulses could instigate a few storms over our western periphery as early as Thursday night.

As the day progresses a few key features begin to shift in favor of strong to severe weather populating Friday afternoon. The upper level trough continues to pivot over the Northland. At the surface an attendant cold front will begin to slide from northwest MN to northwest WI. The low level jet also resurges in the afternoon with speeds in excess of 35kts. Storms will begin to populate along the low level convergence provided by the frontal system. The current projection of this environment has mixed-level CAPEs over 2000 J/Kg and more favorable bulk shear over 35kts. With these conditions forecasted the SPC has northern MN highlighted in a slight risk. Additionally, WPC has northern MN within a slight risk for flash flooding. The NAEFS precipitable water is within the 90th percentile of climatology, not extremely anomalous but high enough to warrant attention.

The cold front and its associated storms are expected to move out of the Northland by Saturday morning. High pressure builds in behind the front with cool dry northerly winds filtering in. The NBM was originally a little adventurous with its POPS for Saturday being in the mid to upper 30s. Global model consensus has minimal large scale forcing with weak cyclonic flow aloft. Combine this with subsidence at the surface brought on by the surface high building to the southwest we have opted to scale back the mention of POPS a bit and have it clearing out by the evening hours.

In general we enter a more settled weather pattern on Sunday and into the early parts of next week. Sunday and Monday will see some gusty winds as a strong pressure gradient sets up over the region. These northwesterly winds will also further decrease the temperatures across the area. Look for high temps in the lower 70s and low temps dropping into the mid 40s by Monday night.

The next batch of rain could arrive on Wednesday. However, at this time model agreement that far out is very poor. A few of the models have a shortwave entering from the west by the afternoon hours which could incite a few showers and a rumble of thunder.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

A weakening storm system was observed moving through central MN and entering WI around noon. The lightening threat has diminished with rainfall slowly dwindling as the system progresses east. Despite this complex moving across the Northland cloud heights are remaining VFR. Latest model guidance has begun to suggest some possible redevelopment on the backside of this system in the afternoon. Confidence is not high for these showers but have put the mention of VCSH for now. MVFR ceilings are expected to filter in ahead of our next weather system tomorrow morning. Additionally, look for stronger winds out of the south with gusts upwards of 25kts.

MARINE. Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

A few rain showers could move across western Lake Superior this evening. No severe weather is expected but a few rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out. Winds are expected to remain below 12 kts through the forecast period with wave heights at 2 ft or less. Additional chances for storms return Thursday night and into Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 62 81 63 80 / 30 20 60 60 INL 60 84 62 79 / 20 50 80 80 BRD 65 85 66 81 / 30 30 60 70 HYR 61 84 62 82 / 20 10 30 40 ASX 62 87 63 85 / 20 10 30 40

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

SHORT TERM . Britt/BJH LONG TERM . Britt/BJH AVIATION . Britt/BJH MARINE . Britt/BJH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi78 min E 5.1 G 6 69°F 1017.5 hPa (-0.7)65°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 29 mi38 min S 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 1017.6 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi38 min WNW 6 G 8 74°F 1016.9 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 36 mi98 min NNE 5.1 G 8 68°F 1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi25 minNW 410.00 miFair74°F64°F74%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6SW4SW5SW7SW6SW7SW11SW8SW6CalmCalmCalmSE3S4S3SE54SW8SW12S6SE6NW4NW4
1 day agoW5SW4SW5SW7SW7SW7SW8SW7SW8SW8SW8SW10SW9SW9SW10SW10SW10
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2 days agoCalmS3W4S4S5SW4SW6SW3SW3CalmCalmSW3NW4CalmW4W75SW4NW13
G20
W7NW9NW8W8W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.