Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:13PM Sunday September 19, 2021 8:30 AM CDT (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:06PMMoonset 3:54AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 Expires:202109170100;;737468 Fzus73 Kdlh 170015 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 715 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 16 2021 Lsz140>147-150-162-170100- 715 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 16 2021
.an area of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 715 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots, small hail, and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 38 nm north of tofte safe harbor, to 16 nm northwest of beaver bay, to 16 nm northwest of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 45 knots. Locations impacted include... Split rock bay, castle danger, barkers island, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, duluth lift bridge channel, twin points safe harbor, tofte, beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, brule point, herbster, larsmont, superior harbor, and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots, locally higher waves, cloud to water lightning strikes, small hail, and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until midnight cdt for northeastern minnesota. Lat...lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4680 9212 4715 9149 4758 9088 4773 9054 4786 9000 4751 9027 4683 9119 4666 9191 4666 9203 4671 9210 4666 9211 4664 9229
LSZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 191159 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 659 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

DISCUSSION. (Today through Saturday) Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Summary: gusty southerly winds will be in place today, along with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over north-central Minnesota this evening. Chances of storms will expand eastward during the day Monday. A few cool nights are expected this upcoming week, particularly Tuesday night, which will pose our next chances for frost.

The Northland remains between departing high pressure to the east and an approaching surface low pressure system to the northwest. Between these systems, a tight surface pressure gradient, along with a strong 45 to 55 knot southerly low-level jet, will lead to gusty south winds today. Gusts between 25 to 35 mph are anticipated. Meanwhile, a longwave upper-level trough will traverse the Intermountain West states today. A surface low pressure system, and an attendant cold front, will gradually translate eastward today and tonight, leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across north-central Minnesota. The southerly low-level jet will remain in place tonight, along with enhanced theta-e advection. Over north-central Minnesota, where convective initiation is expected this afternoon and evening, most-unstable CAPE values look to range between 500 to 1500 J/kg, along with deep-layer shear about 40 to 50 knots. Due to the likely nocturnal initiation of this convection, it appears to be difficult for any surface-based convection to develop due to convective inhibition, so expecting this activity to be more elevated. With modest lapse rates, it appears that the main threats will be large hail and damaging winds gusts. Additionally, heavy rainfall will also be possible, thanks to excellent 850 mb moisture transport along the low-level jet and anomalously high PWAT values in excess of 90 percent of climatology. We are not anticipating any flash flooding as the bulk of the rainfall will occur over an area that continues to be in Exceptional or Extreme drought, and didn't receive much, if any, rainfall from Thursday night's convective activity. The cold front will make its way eastward Monday, allowing chances of showers and storms to expand eastward. The Storm Prediction Center has added in a Marginal Risk (very low risk) of severe storms for northwest Wisconsin and far northeastern Minnesota, particularly for Monday afternoon and evening. The main threat will continue to be damaging winds, along with the potential for a tornado or two if convection can become surface-based and tap into favorable low-level helicity.

Eventually, the cold front will exit the region late Monday into early Tuesday, leading to a period of dry conditions and mostly clear skies for Tuesday through Thursday. Upper-level ridge over the Intermountain West states and surface high pressure will help keep things quiet across the Northland. The high pressure ridge axis will be right overhead for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, leading to overnight lows in the 30s and lower 40s. This looks to be our next best opportunity for frost/fog potential, similar to what transpired Friday night/Saturday morning.

There will be more chances of rain showers Thursday night through Friday as a cut-off upper-level low will translate across the northern portions of the region. This system looks to be a fairly quick-hitter despite the cut-off nature of the low, so not expecting much rainfall with it. Another cool night is expected Friday night/Saturday morning.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Strong southerly winds are expected today, thanks to a tight surface pressure gradient settled across the region. A very strong 45 to 55 knot low-level jet has helped support widespread low- level wind shear across the region. The LLWS threat will diminish later this morning as the boundary layer mixes down these stronger winds to the surface. While this will diminish the LLWS, surface winds will become strong, with gusts to between 25 to 35 knot expected. We will likely continue to see gusty conditions tonight, although not as strong as during the daylight hours today. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening and overnight, especially over north-central Minnesota, as a strong system builds into the region from the west. For this TAF issuance, this activity will likely impact the INL, HIB, and perhaps BRD TAF terminals. An isolated strong to severe storms can't be ruled out with this activity tonight, capable of large hail and damaging winds. This activity may result in MVFR visibility and ceilings, but confidence in this occurrence is too low at this time to put into the TAFs. We will continue to monitor the model trends for these MVFR conditions. LLWS will return once again tonight as the boundary layer decouples.

MARINE. Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Strong southerly winds are expected today ahead of an approaching cold front. Very strong flow aloft will be able to mix down today, with sustained winds 10 to 20 knots and gusts to around 25 to 30 knots. Winds should really ramp up after sunrise this morning, lasting through the next 30 to 36 hours into the day Monday. Wave heights don't look to respond dramatically, with heights only around 2 to 5 feet at their largest. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for a good portion of western Lake Superior, mainly excluding some of the North Shore. The Advisory will last into Monday afternoon. As the aforementioned cold front approaches during the day Monday, chances of thunderstorms will increase along it. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with strong winds being the main threat, along with cloud-to-water lightning. This thunderstorm activity should diminish Monday night into Tuesday morning as the cold front passes through. Winds look to turn more northwesterly and strengthen once again behind the front, so the Small Craft Advisories will likely need to be extended into Monday night/Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 84 66 70 49 / 0 10 90 30 INL 84 60 65 44 / 20 90 100 30 BRD 86 65 68 46 / 0 80 90 10 HYR 85 65 76 47 / 0 0 100 50 ASX 87 68 80 50 / 0 0 90 60

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ144>146.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ121-147-148- 150.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140.



DISCUSSION . JTS AVIATION . JTS MARINE . JTS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi31 min 66°F 1012.4 hPa (-1.1)57°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 29 mi51 min S 11 G 16 69°F 1011.9 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi51 min S 11 G 18 68°F 1012.5 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 36 mi51 min NNE 4.1 G 6 63°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi38 minVar 510.00 miFair66°F55°F68%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S8S7SW10--S7SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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