Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 4:22PM Friday December 6, 2019 9:06 AM CST (15:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:56PMMoonset 1:22AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 Expires:201910010230;;606186 Fzus73 Kdlh 010026 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 726 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 30 2019 Lsz140>147-162-010230- 726 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 30 2019
.an line of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 726 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated a line of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 13 nm northwest of beaver bay, to 16 nm west of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 40 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island lighthouse, split rock bay, castle danger, sand island, barkers island, sugar loaf cove, horseshoe bay and safe harbor, tofte safe harbor, duluth lift bridge channel, twin points safe harbor, tofte, beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, bayfield peninsula sea caves, brule point, herbster, larsmont, superior harbor, and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4679 9214 4715 9149 4754 9093 4773 9051 4799 8945 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4674 9149 4666 9201 4671 9210 4665 9213 4664 9229
LSZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 061129 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 529 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Temperatures trend colder today. Another clipper system moves through the Northland this afternoon and tonight and is expected to bring a round of light snow with accumulation generally up to 1 inch. Portions of Iron County, WI could see between 1 and 2 inches due to lake enhancement. Saturday trends warmer.

Northwest flow over the Northland this morning will usher in colder air for today. Temperatures for many locations have likely reached their highs for today. Temperatures will trend cooler through mid-morning and then rebound a bit for the afternoon. Daytime highs (excluding the readings during the pre-dawn hours) will reach the middle teens northeast to the low 20s in north- central Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Another fast-moving clipper will pass over the Northland this afternoon and tonight. Forcing for ascent is weaker than Thursday’s clipper, and we expect lower snow totals. A swath of a dusting up to an inch of snow is expected over north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Areas in northern Ashland and Iron counties should see a little lake enhancement which will raise snow totals to between 1 and 2 inches. Winds turn westerly aloft which will usher in warmer air overnight and Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the upper single digits above zero to the middle teens. Highs on Saturday will reach the middle 20s to low 30s. Another weak clipper will cruise eastward across northern Ontario Saturday afternoon. There will be a slight chance of snow showers along the International Border as this system passes.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

An upper level short wave pushes into western Minnesota Saturday night, with its associated surface low moving into northwest Ontario. Saturday evening should be fairly dry, except along the Borderland where the best forcing will be located from the approaching wave, and have some low pops. Due to the warm air already in place, a mix of freezing drizzle and snow is possible. As the surface low moves into Hudson Bay overnight, a cold front begins to move across the region. Model differences with the amount of QPF with this front, with the NAM way overdone, and has been ignored. Blending the GFS/GEM/ECMWF leads to chance pops along and east of Highway 53 in Minnesota and Wisconsin, with only minor amounts of QPF. Mixed precipitation types again ahead of the approaching cold front.

Sunday has the cold front moving through the area, with cold Arctic air behind it. Since the Arctic air is much drier, only have some low pops as it passes. Snow should be the main precipitation type. An upper level long wave trof follows behind Sunday night and signals the change to much below normal temps. Models are in better agreement then they were 24 hours ago. Have increased pops above the NBM Sunday night and Monday as it has pops that are unrepresentative as the trof moves into the western Great Lakes, and a surface low lifts northeast from the Central Plains Sunday night, into the eastern Great Lakes Monday. This adjustment led to higher QPF/Snow amounts as well. A general 1 to 3 inches will fall south of Minnesota 210, and south of US Highway 2 in Wisconsin. Some isolated higher amounts are possible.

The surface low continues off to the northeast Monday night. The cold Arctic air surges across the region as a closed upper low becomes established over Hudson Bay. This translates to a northwest surface flow, and lake effect snow will develop along the south shore of Lake Superior. Expect the snow showers to persist through Tuesday night, diminishing on Wednesday. Some accumulation will occur, but there are some differences amongst the models on exact wind direction, which affects the snow amounts. Much below normal temps, with overnight temps below zero Monday night, through Wednesday night. Wind chill values will be hazardous.

The aforementioned closed low begins to move east of Hudson Bay on Wednesday as high pressure drifts into the area. The flow aloft turns westerly on Thursday, with strong warm air advection, and the surface high drifts east. A fairly quiet weather pattern results.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

High pressure will be over the terminals through the forecast. However, MVFR cigs affect all terminals at the start of the forecast as an upper level disturbance moves along the international border. A few snow showers or flurries will also be found this morning. Drier air from the high pressure will work to improve cigs to VFR, end the snow, and scattering out the clouds. The clouds work their way back across the terminals this afternoon through the end of the forecast. Cigs will drop into the MVFR range, with some areas of IFR cigs as another upper level disturbance affects the terminals.

MARINE. Issued at 307 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

A northwest wind of 10 to 15 knots this morning, will diminish in the afternoon before turning west. The wind becomes southwest tonight at 5 to 15 knots, and persists through Saturday night before turning west late. Waves will be less than 3 feet until Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 18 12 29 25 / 10 30 10 30 INL 19 15 29 16 / 20 40 20 30 BRD 20 13 31 25 / 10 10 0 10 HYR 21 13 32 27 / 10 10 0 20 ASX 23 15 33 28 / 10 40 10 20

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

SHORT TERM . Huyck LONG TERM . GSF AVIATION . GSF MARINE . GSF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi67 min NW 15 G 19 21°F 1026.2 hPa (+2.1)13°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi87 min WNW 11 G 14 24°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi74 minW 1010.00 miOvercast19°F12°F77%1027 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NE4NE6NE6NE4NE7E5NE3N6NW6NW5CalmW5NW8N10NW10
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2 days agoSW9SW10SW10W11SW10SW11SW10W9SW10SW8W8SW8W10W8SW8SW6W7SW7W6W7W9W10W8W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.