Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, ND

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:12AMSunset 4:48PM Monday December 16, 2019 3:47 AM CST (09:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 11:58AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, ND
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location: 46.89, -99.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Bismarck, ND
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FXUS63 KBIS 160937 AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

A northwest flow pattern continues for the short term period. A deepening shortwave trough currently over the Northwest Territories of Canada will drop into Manitoba today, with an attendant surface low moving from northern Saskatchewan into central Manitoba. This will place western and central North Dakota in the warm sector of this system. However, cloud cover may keep high temperatures similar to yesterday, mainly from the upper teens east to upper 20s southwest. Some light snow or flurries may develop along the 850 mb warm front as it moves across the area this morning, with better chances near the Turtle Mountains. Very little to no accumulation is expected.

As the northern shortwave moves into western Ontario Tuesday night, a tightening gradient of the mid level height field will strengthen a baroclinic zone extending from southeast Saskatchewan into northern North Dakota. Several models produce a narrow band of light snow along this baroclinic zone and propagate it southeast into the James River Valley through Tuesday morning. Forcing for ascent may initially be aided by a 700 mb impulse and later on, an approaching upper level jet streak. While this event does not have the appearance of anything to be much concerned about, there is potential for some enhanced snowfall rates given the presence of strong lift in a deep DGZ, frontogenesis, and EPV nearing zero, signaling potential CSI.

A cold Arctic air mass will plunge into the Red River Valley on Tuesday, giving our area a glancing blow. Temperatures will struggle to make it above 10 F east of Highway 83 and north of Interstate 94 during the day Tuesday, and the Turtle Mountains may stay below zero. It will be much warmer farther west, with the far southwest corner of the state seeing highs near 30.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

On Tuesday night, Arctic high pressure is forecast to slide from the Red River Valley into central Minnesota. Eastern portions of our forecast area may see temperatures fall near -10 F early Tuesday night before warm air advection kicks in. It does not appear wind chills will reach headline criteria.

A long period of warm and dry weather under upper level ridging is favored Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF briefly flatten the ridge by bringing a shortwave across the Northern Plains on Thursday, but the atmospheric moisture profile appears far too dry to allow any precipitation to from with this system. GEFS plumes favor 850 mb temperatures above freezing through much of this time period. Surface temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover and snow depth, but could see widespread highs in the 30s and 40s for the weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

UPDATE . No longer expecting fog to develop across southwest and south central ND due to persistent VFR clouds streaming over the area. While there are some patches of MVFR clouds in the vicinity, think that KBIS and KDIK will remain at VFR now.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION . MVFR stratus is beginning to clear across northern and western ND. Expect to see it continue through much of the night at KBIS and KJMS. The clearing stratus may allow fog to develop overnight. The greatest potential for visibility reductions from fog is at KDIK overnight, shifting east towards KBIS by sunrise Monday morning. Winds will generally be from the west at 5 to 10 knots overnight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots Monday afternoon.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Hollan LONG TERM . Hollan AVIATION . Hollan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jamestown, Jamestown Municipal Airport, ND23 mi1.9 hrsNNW 1210.00 miOvercast18°F12°F81%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJMS

Wind History from JMS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S11S11S7S5S6S6SW8SW10SW8SW9S8SW9--W10W7W7--NW9W10NW14NW11NW12NW10
1 day agoNW10NW11NW10NW9NW7NW10NW9N8N6NW6N6NW5N6N4CalmCalmCalmS3S7SE6S7S9S10S11
2 days agoSE11SE10S9S9S7SE6S6CalmNW11NW19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Bismarck, ND (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fargo, ND
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.