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FXUS63 KBIS 051145 AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Bismarck ND 545 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Trimmed a Burke and Renville from the Dense Fog, otherwise the remainder of the advisory remains valid. May need to expand to include the remainder of the James River Valley at some point this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 441 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Dense Fog adv expanded into south central ND as low clouds and fog have pushed south to the SD border there, just east of the Missouri River. I also went ahead and put the advisory out till 15Z (9am central) for all areas with fog still lingering north central.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be morning fog central and east. This will be followed by mild air surging east into the region today through tonight.

Currently, strong north/northwest flow aloft with a high amplitude ridge to our west over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, and a long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. Surface ridge of high pressure extends from western South Dakota north/northeastward through central North Dakota into southern Manitoba, with a warm front to our west east of the Montana Rockies. Low level stratus and widespread fog (dense at times) focused along the sfc ridge axis early this morning. With the eastward movement of the sfc ridge, stratus and fog are also advecting south and east and eroding on the backside of the ridge as southerly return flow develops. Have been issuing Dense Fog advisories since late last evening as the fog develops east, and removing headlines as conditions improve farther west. Will continue to monitor over the next several hours and adjust headlines accordingly. Headlines will be possible well past sunrise across my east.

Warm front approaches later this morning over eastern Montana, then moves into western North Dakota this afternoon. As a result WAA spreads from west to east, with highs today well into the 40s most areas, along with a few lower 50s over the higher terrain of the southwest where the better mixing is expected.

Warm front continues east tonight, with mild overnight temperatures in the upper 20s east and near 40 west (near record high lows). The long term discussion below touches on this in more detail.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

- Near-record highs anticipated Wednesday, with temperatures broadly in the 50s and even a few locations in the southwest breaking into the lower 60s.

- Temperatures cool through the end of the workweek as a low pressure center moves across the northern plains late Thursday and Friday. This system may bring chances for rain and potentially snow, especially along the international border, with windy conditions anticipated through Friday with its passage.

Strong upper-level ridging moves over the northern plains early Wednesday, allowing for an axis of unseasonably warm air to penetrate into the forecast area. With the timing of this warm front, low temperatures Wednesday morning are favored to remain at or above freezing for the western half of the state, with the climate sites at the Dickinson and Minot airports currently forecast to break the record for high minimum temperatures for Dec 6th.
Despite the climatologically warm temperatures, the records for daytime high temperatures are not currently favored to be broken at this time.

Ridging quickly becomes broken down and exits the area late Wednesday and into Thursday as a shortwave moves into the northern plains. The ensemble becomes increasing discordant at this time due to disagreement on the track of this shortwave as well the location of where an attendant surface low pressure center develops, with two scenarios broadly to be considered at this time. Scenario 1 is a majority cluster (60% of ensemble members), and champions the development and passage of the potential surface low further to our north. In this scenario, precipitation impacts for the forecast area would be both limited and would remain north of Highway 2. Scenario 2 (40% of ensemble membership, mainly due to 80% of ECMWF members buying into this solution) would instead see the shortwave dig further south and have the low pressure center develop over North Dakota. In this scenario, precipitation chances would be much more widespread, if still highest around the international border. A quick transition from rain into snow is also favored in this scenario as cold air wraps around the low pressure center and into the forecast area. In either scenario, winds approaching advisory criteria are anticipated as the gradient strengthens around the low pressure center, with confidence bolstered by the EFI's 10WG at a value of 0.97 at 00z Friday. Temperatures will also become relatively cool compared to Wednesday through this period and into the weekend, though highs are expected to remain above seasonal normals.

Looking into next week, chances for precipitation could potentially return late Sunday and into Monday as a clipper system develops to the northwest and pushes into the northern plains. Temperature are expected to continue to trend down through the end of the long term period, but confidence about next week remains low at this time as clusters continue to become increasingly discordant.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Currently all TAF sites are VFR. LIFR stratus and fog (some areas dense) is still possible (not likely) for KMOT early this morning. KJMS will likely see the stratus and fog after 12Z and through this morning. VFR conditions are expected for all terminals today and tonight, with a mid level cloud deck moving from west to east through the day. Low level wind shear then becomes a concern tonight for all terminals.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ004-005- 010>013-021>023-025-035-036-046-047-050.

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