UPDATE
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Going forecast of quiet weather continues to be in good shape.
The only concern at this point is the possibility for a little fog over the southern James River Valley. Visibility at Oakes is at about 3 miles, so will have to see if they continue to drop at all, and if so will add some fog into the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

No changes for the late evening update. Partly cloudy skies with high clouds spilling over the building Canadian ridge. Will keep an eye on visibilities bounding around as there may be a little smoke around but reductions have been temporary and vsbys currently remaining above 6SM. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

No significant changes to the current forecast. Mostly clear skies across western and central North Dakota under a weakening surface high pressure ridge and a building upper level ridge from the west. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

This afternoon, a deep closed low was placed over the Great Lakes region, while a shallow ridge was building over the Northern Rockies, leading to northwest flow aloft over the Dakotas. At the surface, a weak closed low was moving through the southern Canadian Prairies, with a marginal surface pressure gradient and afternoon mixing leading to a touch of a breeze across the area. A few high clouds are drifting south across central North Dakota, otherwise there's plenty of blue sky today, afternoon highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Quiet weather conditions will continue through tonight, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

As the upper ridge strengthens and begins to move east, temperatures across the forecast area will warm, especially across western North Dakota. Highs on Sunday will be in the 80s, increasing to the mid 80s to mid 90s on Monday (warmest west)
as the ridge axis moves overhead. The hottest temperatures slide east on Tuesday, with highs from the lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s south. Precipitation chances during this period are very low, although some deterministic guidance is beginning to show a shortwave moving through Monday evening, which could bring some low precipitation chances.

A larger pattern shift emerges midweek as ensemble guidance is honing in on a trough moving onshore, deepening as it moves west over the Rockies late in the work week. Blended precipitation chances aren't too high just yet but are pretty consistently 20 to 30 percent Wednesday through Friday as flow aloft turns southwesterly. CSU machine learning probabilities are showing low but non-zero chances for severe thunderstorms during this period as well. The ECMWF EFI is advertising elevated winds on Thursday and Friday, with the latest NBM in agreement with this solution. NBM temperature ranges show high confidence in cooler temperatures the second half of the week, with highs closer to normal by next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Localized BR over parts of far south-central and southeast North Dakota will result in some MVFR visibility through early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.