Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cleveland, ND
July 3, 2024 12:24 AM CDT (05:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 9:34 PM Moonrise 2:12 AM Moonset 7:12 PM |
FXUS63 KBIS 030258 AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 958 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, highest in the southwest where a few stronger storms are possible.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Independence Day, but the entire day should not be a washout.
- Slightly below normal temperatures will continue through the holiday weekend, with highs mainly in the 70s.
UPDATE
Issued at 957 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms have greatly diminished in coverage this evening. At 945 PM CDT, just one lone thunderstorm remained over southeast McHenry County, moving southeast toward Harvey.
From that storm, a line of isolated showers extended west to along Lake Sakakawea and through McKenzie County to near Sidney, MT. Farther south, lighter showers have all but dissipated along and south of Interstate 94 and west of the Missouri River, with the exception of the far southwest corner of the state, south of Highway 12. We expect the diminishing trend to continue into the overnight hours, and aside from the northern James River Valley/southwest Devils Lake Basin area, lightning should no longer be a concern. Our forecast reflects a slower decrease in PoPs in western North Dakota compared to central, given upstream radar trends in eastern Montana.
UPDATE Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
At 700 PM CDT, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms was located from western McLean County to near Hettinger, moving east- southeast. Isolated wind gusts near 50 mph have been associated with this line for the past couple hours. The showers and storms may persist at their current intensity and pace for the next hour or two, but should not strengthen any further, before dissipating around sunset time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Temperatures this week will remain near average (upper 70s, lower 80s) with daily chances of non-severe showers and thunderstorms.
Currently a stacked low sits north of Minnesota in Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed in the cyclonic flow in the Dakotas around the low. A few of them have some lightning strikes with them, otherwise expect mostly quick shots of rain and gusty winds. More showers will likely move in from Montana this evening. These will continue until the diurnal heating relaxes around sunset. With a surface high pressure to our southwest, skies will also clear overnight and remain mostly sunny Wednesday until the evening when an open wave moves through aloft. Most CAMs have popcorn storms like this afternoon. There will be more CAPE available, around 1000 J/kg, with 30kts of shear in the far southwest. So there is a small chance a storm could go severe for a short time in the southwest or the far south central tier of counties in the early evening.
The SPC has a marginal for Bowman, Adams, and Sioux Counties.
However the chances seem to be very low.
Independence Day could be fairly wet during the morning and afternoon. The NBM has 60-80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, but they are looking to be popcorn showers once again. If you try to keep your outside plans be sky aware, especially with lightning. Lightning can strike several miles away from the storm. After 7pm CT, the chances for storm decreases greatly so firework shows may still happen.
Another stacked low looks to form over Nebraska and move into Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. This will bring our next chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Then again Saturday as a clipper system clips the state. A slight shortwave then moves through Sunday bringing another chance (30%) to the north and east. The start of next week looks dry as a general ridging pattern will be over the western half of the CONUS. Temperatures look to remain in the lower 80s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 957 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms across western and central North Dakota will continue to dissipate into the overnight hours, with major terminals now likely to remain unaffected. Another round of showers and storms could develop Wednesday afternoon, with the highest chances in southwest North Dakota. VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the forecast period, with west- northwest winds around 10 kts.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 958 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, highest in the southwest where a few stronger storms are possible.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Independence Day, but the entire day should not be a washout.
- Slightly below normal temperatures will continue through the holiday weekend, with highs mainly in the 70s.
UPDATE
Issued at 957 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms have greatly diminished in coverage this evening. At 945 PM CDT, just one lone thunderstorm remained over southeast McHenry County, moving southeast toward Harvey.
From that storm, a line of isolated showers extended west to along Lake Sakakawea and through McKenzie County to near Sidney, MT. Farther south, lighter showers have all but dissipated along and south of Interstate 94 and west of the Missouri River, with the exception of the far southwest corner of the state, south of Highway 12. We expect the diminishing trend to continue into the overnight hours, and aside from the northern James River Valley/southwest Devils Lake Basin area, lightning should no longer be a concern. Our forecast reflects a slower decrease in PoPs in western North Dakota compared to central, given upstream radar trends in eastern Montana.
UPDATE Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
At 700 PM CDT, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms was located from western McLean County to near Hettinger, moving east- southeast. Isolated wind gusts near 50 mph have been associated with this line for the past couple hours. The showers and storms may persist at their current intensity and pace for the next hour or two, but should not strengthen any further, before dissipating around sunset time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Temperatures this week will remain near average (upper 70s, lower 80s) with daily chances of non-severe showers and thunderstorms.
Currently a stacked low sits north of Minnesota in Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed in the cyclonic flow in the Dakotas around the low. A few of them have some lightning strikes with them, otherwise expect mostly quick shots of rain and gusty winds. More showers will likely move in from Montana this evening. These will continue until the diurnal heating relaxes around sunset. With a surface high pressure to our southwest, skies will also clear overnight and remain mostly sunny Wednesday until the evening when an open wave moves through aloft. Most CAMs have popcorn storms like this afternoon. There will be more CAPE available, around 1000 J/kg, with 30kts of shear in the far southwest. So there is a small chance a storm could go severe for a short time in the southwest or the far south central tier of counties in the early evening.
The SPC has a marginal for Bowman, Adams, and Sioux Counties.
However the chances seem to be very low.
Independence Day could be fairly wet during the morning and afternoon. The NBM has 60-80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, but they are looking to be popcorn showers once again. If you try to keep your outside plans be sky aware, especially with lightning. Lightning can strike several miles away from the storm. After 7pm CT, the chances for storm decreases greatly so firework shows may still happen.
Another stacked low looks to form over Nebraska and move into Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. This will bring our next chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Then again Saturday as a clipper system clips the state. A slight shortwave then moves through Sunday bringing another chance (30%) to the north and east. The start of next week looks dry as a general ridging pattern will be over the western half of the CONUS. Temperatures look to remain in the lower 80s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 957 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms across western and central North Dakota will continue to dissipate into the overnight hours, with major terminals now likely to remain unaffected. Another round of showers and storms could develop Wednesday afternoon, with the highest chances in southwest North Dakota. VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the forecast period, with west- northwest winds around 10 kts.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KJMS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KJMS
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KJMS
Wind History graph: JMS
(wind in knots)
Fargo, ND,
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