Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 1:49 AM   Moonset 9:57 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 302142 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 542 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure crosses the northern Mid-Atlantic states tonight, then passes south of the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. High pressure builds to the north Wednesday night, followed by weak low pressure passing to the southwest Thursday. High pressure then builds down from the north Thursday night through Friday night, then slowly retreats to the north and east through Saturday night. A frontal system approaches from the west on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
542 PM Update: Adjustments this update included lowering wind speeds Ovrngt, spcly across vly areas and adjusting cld cvr upwards ovr the FA, spcly for the Ovrngt hrs. Otherwise fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the Ovrngt hrs from obsvd Aftn high temps and latest avbl sfc obs with little in the way of chgs to fcst Ovrngt low temps.

Pre Disc: A ridge of high pressure gradually shifts eastwards into the Canadian Maritimes this evening, as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Due to substantial mid level dry air, showers will be slow to move in this evening, but once this dry layer finally saturates, isolated to scattered rain showers will be able to reach the ground through the night tonight across the Downeast region. Light showers will result in little measurable precip overnight. Temperatures will only fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s over most of the area due to increased cloud cover. The surface low will continue to track south of the Gulf of Maine and exit to the southeast Wednesday morning, leading to showers clearing out of the area. Mostly cloudy skies will continue to linger through the day on Wednesday, but any breaks in the clouds will allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 50s through the region.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Northern stream ridging transits the area Wednesday night, with associated subsidence keeping things dry. However, will see partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions with low to mid level moisture increasing overnight on the backside of the ridge. Lows Wednesday night should be near normal, ranging from the mid 30s to around 40.

A northern stream trough crosses New England Thursday, bringing some isolated to scattered showers with it. There is some question as to how far NE any precipitation will be with this system. Some models even suggest that SW zones could just get clipped by this system with little or no precipitation elsewhere. For now, have limited pops to high end chance over central and Downeast zones. Highs on Thursday should be near to slightly below normal. Ranging from around 50 to the upper 50s.
Coolest temperatures should be near the immediate coast with onshore flow.

Deep layered ridging builds in Thursday night and Friday, so it should be dry. However, with moisture progged to be trapped under the developing subsidence inversion and shortwaves embedded in the flow, should see partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions. Lows Thursday night should be near to slightly above normal and highs on Friday a few degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Deep layered ridging continues to build in Friday night through Saturday, then pass to the east Saturday night. Associated subsidence should keep things dry.

Depending on exactly how fast the deep layered ridge continues to exit to the east on Sunday, will determine, how much, if any showers occur over the region. For now expect mainly isolated showers, with showers possibly more scattered in nature over far NW zones late in the day.

SW flow aloft Sunday night, with a passing shortwave should bring some scattered showers. A northern stream trough then passes on Monday, followed by a northern stream shortwave Monday night, so should see some isolated to scattered showers during this time frame.

The region should be under NW flow aloft, with some shortwaves possibly embedded in the flow. So have a slight chance of showers in the forecast. It is very hard to pin down shortwaves in a fast flow aloft this far out.

Temperatures should be near normal Friday night and Saturday, then above normal Saturday night through Tuesday.

AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue across all terminals through the early evening. Cigs will begin to lower over Downeast terminals late this evening, falling to MVFR overnight tonight as scattered rain showers move through. Northern terminals are expected to remain VFR, but PQI and HUL may briefly dip towards MVFR around 10 to 12z before improving once more. Downeast terminals will be slower to return to VFR Wednesday, and may remain MVFR until late in the afternoon. Winds generally light and variable, with a few lingering northerly gusts at northern terminals late this afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday...VFR northern terminals, with MVFR possible at southern terminals.

Thursday night-Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday: Most likely VFR, with a low chance of MVFR in the afternoon. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels tonight through Wednesday, with winds becoming NE with gusts to 15 kts and seas 1 to 2 ft. Scattered light rain showers possible overnight tonight.

SHORT TERM: A light to at times moderate pressure gradient over the waters Wednesday night through Sunday, should limit sustained winds to at most 10 to 15 kt. With no significant swell forecast, seas should be around 2 ft or less late this week through the weekend as well.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Newcastle
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Tue -- 12:19 AM ADT     1.28 meters High Tide
Tue -- 02:46 AM ADT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:11 AM ADT     1.11 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 06:07 AM ADT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:07 AM ADT     1.52 meters High Tide
Tue -- 10:53 AM ADT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:26 PM ADT     0.34 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM ADT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newcastle, Miramichi River, New Brunswick (2), Tide feet

Newcastle
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Tue -- 02:46 AM ADT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:34 AM ADT     0.36 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 06:07 AM ADT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:32 AM ADT     1.57 meters High Tide
Tue -- 10:53 AM ADT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 PM ADT     0.01 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM ADT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newcastle, Miramichi River, New Brunswick, Tide feet

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Caribou, ME,