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FXUS61 KCAR 231340 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 940 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move southeast of the region as a cold front approaches from the northwest and falls apart over Maine today.
Low pressure will track well to our south tonight into Monday.
High pressure slowly builds into the area Monday afternoon through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:30 am Update: High clouds from Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to move across the area. A few thicker patches of fog remain near Moosehead Lake, Mars Hill, and north of Mount Katahdin, but these will continue to dissipate late this morning. Lower level clouds around 3,000 feet AGL are moving into the Saint John Valley just ahead of a weak cold front. This front will bring isolated showers this afternoon, a few of which have already developed northwest of Fort Kent. The front is still expected to stall north of Baxter State Park this evening. No changes were needed aside from importing the latest observations.

Previous Discussion...
High clouds from Tropical Storm Ophelia which is centered near the North Carolina coast will continue to thicken in southern zones this morning. Still expecting some milky sunshine through the clouds in spots but basically cloudy day. A cold front with mid level clouds is approaching the St. Lawrence seaway at this time. This front will track into Northern Maine today and just washout over the state. Expecting a wind shift this afternoon across the north from S-SW to N-NW but remaining generally less than 10mph. Southerly winds will continue across southern zones with the influence of Ophelia well to our south. Expect temperatures to be warmer north with more sunshine and cooler towards the coastline along with the wind off the Gulf of Maine waters. Highs along the coast in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Bangor region into interior Downeast will be mid 60s with upper 60s to near 70F closer to Baxter & Moosehead you head. Across the north into the Crown expecting upper 60s to low 70s in spots.

Tonight, expect a piece of Ophelia energy to break off and track south of the Gulf of Maine waters with precipitation. Not expecting any precipitation onshore here in Maine as the front washes out over the state. Winds lightly shift N in response to a 1026mb high pressure building SE into Quebec and Northern Maine. Winds become light tonight and with no strong pressure gradient expecting a nice calm night. It will be mostly cloudy south which will keep temperatures up but strong clearing to the north will result in some cooler temperatures. Expecting some lower 40s across the north with upper 30s in the far NW that might produce some patchy frost. Elsewhere, with thicker clouds expecting upper 40s to around 50F at the shore.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday will feature high pressure nosing into the area from northern Ontario and Quebec. H850/925 temps support highs in the upper 60s to around 70F with low humidity. Northern zones will see little cloud cover, but towards the coast, a cirrus overcast will be in place much of the day.

The cirrus will be the northern edge of the deeper moisture associated with remnants of Ophelia in the Mid- Atlantic states.
This moisture will stay well south of the area Sunday night.
An upper trough swinging southward from northern Quebec will shunt the moisture south and east of the area. A cold front associated with the upper trough moves through the area Sunday night with no precipitation, but decent cold air advection and breezy north winds.

With H850 temps dropping towards the 1-3C range by later Monday, high temps will struggle to reach much more than 60F in northern zones on Monday. Mid 60s are forecast towards Bangor and the Downeast coast where offshore winds will be in place. H850 moisture should be sufficient for partly to mostly cloudy skies across much of eastern and northern Maine on Monday. Cool north winds gusting to 20 mph will add to the fall-like feel on Monday.

Clear skies, light winds and the cool air mass will produce widespread readings in the 30s Monday night. Have added some mention of patchy frost as well as river valley fog.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A large blocking high over James Bay will slowly drift southeastward towards Maine during the period and ensure an extended period of dry and seasonably mild weather. Tuesday will be the coolest day with a gradual warming trend in accordance with the strong subsidence. The subsidence and low PWs promise little cloud cover through the period. There will still be some residual H850 moisture for thin fair wx cu and stratocu on Tuesday. Highs will increase from the mid 60s on Tuesday towards the lower 70s by Friday, but well short of record highs in the lower 80s for Bangor and Caribou. Given the dry air mass, did shade lows a bit lower than most guidance, but do not foresee frost after Monday night. River valley fog will continue to be an issue each night well into the week.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR. Generally high cigs across southern sites.
Northern sites around FROPA expecting SCT-BKN MVFR cigs for a few hours this afternoon. Winds S-SW 5-10kt this morning shifting N-NW at northern sites this afternoon and evening.
-SHRA possible at FVE & CAR this afternoon. VFR cigs expected tonight with BCFG possible at some sites. N-NW winds less than 5kt.

SHORT TERM: Saturday into Wednesday...Predominately VFR with infrequent cigs
mostly above 5000ft
and very good vis. Slight chance of river valley fog impacting terminals near sunrise on Sunday morning as well as early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Generally light winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Light S winds across the waters today generally less than 10kt. Winds shift NE tonight and remain less than 10kt.
9-10sec period waves this morning will last into tonight generally 1-2ft today becoming 1-3ft tonight. Sea surface temperatures are running generally 54-57F across the waters south of Washington County to the Hague Line. 55-58F from coastal Hancock County out 25nm. Water temps are near 60F in Penobscot Bay.

SHORT TERM: No fog or advisories likely through the period. NE winds will kick up Monday into Tuesday with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range. Long period south swell will reach around 4 ft Sunday into Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Newcastle
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Sat -- 07:10 AM ADT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM ADT     0.09 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 01:04 PM ADT     0.57 meters High Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM ADT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:38 PM ADT     0.30 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM ADT     Sunset
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Newcastle, Miramichi River, New Brunswick, Tide feet

Newcastle
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Sat -- 07:10 AM ADT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM ADT     0.36 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 01:57 PM ADT     1.09 meters High Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM ADT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:52 PM ADT     0.97 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM ADT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newcastle, Miramichi River, New Brunswick (2), Tide feet

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