Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Covington Hamlet, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:10PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 5:00 AM EST (10:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 6:32AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Covington Hamlet, NY
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location: 46.91, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 100820 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 320 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. After a mild start this morning, a cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon, bringing cooler temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers. Temperatures will start in the mid 40s to near 50, but drop back into the 30s by this evening. Scattered snow showers and much cooler temperatures will prevail on Wednesday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. It will be even colder on Thursday with highs only in the teens and lower 20s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 319 AM EST Tuesday . Quite a warm start this morning as temperatures remain in the mid 40s to around 50 across the North Country. Scattered rain showers will continue through the early morning hours, particularly across southern portions of our Adirondacks zones down into south central VT. However, a cold front currently stretched across eastern Ontario into western Quebec will make its way through the region later this morning into the afternoon, which will usher in colder and drier air as deeper moisture is shunted to our east. Therefore precipitation coverage will wane and temperatures will drop through the day as the front pushes eastward. The precipitation should be just about done by the time temperatures are cold enough for snow, but can't rule out a few snow showers this afternoon, particularly over the higher terrain. Cold air advection will result in steeping low-level lapse rates, improving mixing potential, so gusty winds are expected this afternoon, particularly across northern NY. Temperatures will drop through the 30s this afternoon/evening, and eventually into the teens to lower 20s overnight. The frontal boundary sets up to our south overnight, limiting precipitation potential. However, a bit of light snow can't be totally ruled out, especially over far southern VT, as a weak wave of low pressure treks through southern New England.

A weak upper shortwave will travel over northern New England on Wednesday while the associated surface low will pass by to our north. This latter feature will drag its attendant cold front across our region Wednesday afternoon. Winds will briefly turn to the south and southwest ahead of this frontal boundary, allowing enhanced moisture to stream off of Lake Ontario into the southern St Lawrence County into the Adirondacks. Therefore, expect snow showers will develop during the afternoon across the favored locales east of Lake Ontario. Of potentially greater import however, expect these showers to be enhanced the moisture will interact with the frontal boundary as it moves into northern NY. Note very steep low-level lapse rates out ahead of the front, and model guidance indicates a narrow band of frontogenesis and a bit of SBCAPE on the order of 80-120 J/kg as well. Hence expect potential snow squalls to develop as the front moves through northern NY and portions of far northern VT during the late afternoon-evening hours. Much of the hi-res CAM model reflectivity supports this, showing a narrow band of precip moving into St Lawrence County around 5 pm and progressing eastward into the early evening. This band may produce a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow as it pushes through, especially in northern NY due to closer proximity to the lake-enhanced moisture. Gusty winds will be possible with and after the frontal passage as well, with ample mixing expected. Wednesday's highs will be quite a bit cooler than today, mainly in the mid 20s to around 30.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 319 AM EST Tuesday . Cold front continues to push eastward overnight Wednesday. A colder air mass will begin to advect into the region, bringing most areas into the upper single digits to teens. Precipitation chances will quickly come to an end as cooler, drier air advects into the region sending PWAT values below 0.10". Strong surface high pressure will build into the region. Tight pressure gradients between this building high and the departing front will yield gusty winds of 20- 30 mph with isolated 35 mph gusts during the pre-dawn hours.

Strong 1041mb high will slide from Long Island to Cape Cod during the day, so we will see our flow gradually become southerly and lighten over the course of the day. Skies should clear out quite nicely for a pleasant, cool day in the upper teens to mid 20s. A weak shortwave will lift north of our region, but it will amount to little more than some mid to upper clouds moving overhead late Thursday evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 319 AM EST Tuesday . Strong 1041mb high continues eastward off into the Northern Atlantic. On its western periphery, strong pressure gradients will bring back the breezy conditions with 15-25 mph gusts common place during the day on Friday. Positive thickness advection from southwesterly flow will bring us into mid to upper 30s. Heading into Friday night, a shortwave trough will dig into the Ohio River Valley with the trough negatively tilted. This will eject a southern stream shortwave northward ahead of it into New England. Overnight lows will not fall much, if at all, during the evening with most places in upper 20s to lower 30s. There's a small window for a light wintry mix as the system approaches Friday night, but the precipitation chances will be low and the surge of warm air will be quick to transition precipitation into rain for much of the region.

We will be left with several interacting surface lows: one near the Hudson in Canada, one over the Great Lakes, and a third one off the US East Coast. The coastal low should be the dominant low, but the system tracks far inland, which will be more conducive to rain and gusty winds over the North Country. PWATs will come near the 99th percentile with values over 0.75" likely. Where the best moisture transport takes place will depend on the alignment of these features, but early indications show 0.50"-1.00" of QPF likely over southern Vermont and the Adirondacks, generally favoring upslope east-facing slopes with terrain shadowing across western slopes.

The main upper shortwave trough passes overhead Sunday with a modest deformation axis along the feature, along with plenty of moisture on the backside of the departing coastal low. Cold air will be slow to make it in initially, so it will take some time to change back to snow. High pressure will settle in for Monday.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 06Z Wednesday . Low level wind shear will continue to be an issue through 12z-15z with south winds at 2000 feet in the 35 to 45 knot range. Winds at the surface will be around 10 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Areal coverage of precipitation is decreasing quickly across the area, but expect additional showers to move into northern NY and southern VT through early morning, then decreasing again after 12z or so. Visibility generally VFR, but MVFR/IFR in any precipitation. Ceilings will generally be in the MVFR category, but lower into the IFR category from time to time through 12z. After 12z ceilings will mainly be in the MVFR and VFR categories. Look for a wind shift to the west after 16z as a cold front moves across the area. Could see some 20 to 30 knot gusts after 18z, mainly across northern New York.

Outlook .

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN.

MARINE. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through at least this morning. South winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt will continue through the morning hours, then subside just a bit to 15-20 kt while switching to the west in the afternoon. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hastings NEAR TERM . Hastings SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . Hastings MARINE . Hastings


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY143 mi67 minSW 14 G 2410.00 miLight Rain50°F45°F83%997.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSS

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS9S3S5S5S8SW8S6S9S12S14
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Tide / Current Tables for Louiseville, Quebec
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Louiseville
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Tue -- 12:33 AM EST     0.92 meters High Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:30 AM EST     0.90 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EST     0.94 meters High Tide
Tue -- 01:35 PM EST     0.94 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 02:59 PM EST     0.94 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:34 PM EST     0.92 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Tue -- 05:26 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EST     0.95 meters High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM EST     0.94 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 02:31 PM EST     0.97 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:06 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:29 PM EST     0.96 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.